From Explorer™ to Custom
Roadmapping and Action Plans
       Trieste: November 26, 2008

              Robert Thomas, Ph.D...
SRI Consulting Business Intelligence

             Services Address                                                 Repres...
Outline of Presentation


  • What are technology roadmaps?
  • How do I make one?
  • What would I do if I had one?
  • W...
What Do We Mean by a Technology Roadmap?
            The analogy with an actual road map is still the best one

•   A road...
Where You Want to Go Will Obviously Affect the
Best Route
 • There may be multiple pathways to get to the same or very sim...
Once the Route is Chosen We Need to Monitor Progress
and Events to Decide if the Pathway Remains Correct


  • Monitoring ...
Technology Roadmaps Are Not Conceptually
Different from a Road Map…

  •   Technology roadmaps should set out the landscap...
…In Reality, Roadmaps Can Take Many Different
Forms

      •   Some of the most well-known technology roadmaps are the res...
At SRIC-BI, We Focus on What We Call Strategic
Technology Roadmaps

    The word “strategic” is frequently used: what do w...
How To Make a Technology Roadmap: First
Create a Profile of the Opportunity

  •     First and foremost, creating a techno...
From Profile to Technology Roadmap
    •   The various elements of the profile become the major inputs to the roadmap
    ...
Example Industry-Level Roadmap
 •   Roadmap for a Japanese multinational IT company in the area of Integrated
     Enterpr...
From Industry Roadmap to Company Pathway
   •   First and foremost, industry roadmaps set out multiple pathways and option...
Roadmap Development Recap
                                                                                                ...
Now I Have a Roadmap, What Do I Do With it?

  • Company roadmaps are only a description of the organization’s path; to
  ...
Action Roadmaps are Essential (Plans Without Actions
      Have No Value)
               • Action roadmaps display and des...
Roadmapping Uses: A Focus on Business Strategy and
Product/Service Development

  • The ultimate aim of developing roadmap...
Roadmapping Uses: Selecting a Technology Portfolio

  •        For technology-oriented organizations (government labs, cor...
Roadmap Development Recap                                                                                                 ...
Outline of Presentation


  • What are technology roadmaps?
  • How do I make one?
  • What would I do if I had one?
  • W...
What Does a Custom Roadmap Mean in the
Context of Explorer?

 • Explorer is a syndicated program, with a wide and diverse ...
Technology Roadmaps
Technology Roadmaps
Technology Roadmaps
Technology Roadmaps
Technology Roadmaps
Technology Roadmaps
Technology Roadmaps
Technology Roadmaps
Technology Roadmaps
Technology Roadmaps
Technology Roadmaps
Technology Roadmaps
Technology Roadmaps
Technology Roadmaps
Technology Roadmaps
Technology Roadmaps
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Technology Roadmaps

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AREA Science Park & SRIC-BI: from Explorer™t o Custom Roadmapping and Action Plans

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Technology Roadmaps

  1. 1. From Explorer™ to Custom Roadmapping and Action Plans Trieste: November 26, 2008 Robert Thomas, Ph.D. Principal SRI Consulting Business Intelligence http://www.sric-bi.com
  2. 2. SRI Consulting Business Intelligence Services Address Representative Markets and Technology Clients Idea Strategy Strategy Intelligence Generation Development Execution • Aramco • Microsoft CONSULTING SERVICES • Auto Mfgs: US, Japan, • Nalco EU Opportunity Discovery • NRC (Canada) • Best Buy Roadmapping • Chevron • PDVSA Scanning, Monitoring, and Other Intelligence Solutions • Consumer Products • SABIC Scenario Planning/Strategy • Consumer Electronics • Samsung Commercialization • Eastman Chemical • Statoil Consumer Demand • ExxonMobil Technology and Market Assessment • Shell • Intevep • TVA SYNDICATED RESEARCH PROGRAMS • ITRI Explorer • U.S. Government • L’Oreal Scan™ • Motorola • Weyerhaeuser Virtual Worlds Consumer Financial Decisions VALS™ • Syndicated Research • More than 300 clients worldwide Key services and programs 1
  3. 3. Outline of Presentation • What are technology roadmaps? • How do I make one? • What would I do if I had one? • Ways to get started: Explorer to custom technology roadmapping • Some SRIC-BI project examples 2
  4. 4. What Do We Mean by a Technology Roadmap? The analogy with an actual road map is still the best one • A road map sets out the landscape • It shows us a number of different paths we can take depending on the starting point • Too many paths for any one person or company to take simultaneously • We must make a choice depending on where we want to go and our objectives • The pathway we end up choosing will depend on a number of external and internal considerations • Considerations such as: the traffic the enabling technology the weather 3
  5. 5. Where You Want to Go Will Obviously Affect the Best Route • There may be multiple pathways to get to the same or very similar destinations • Some pathways may be shorter or better than others • Personal, business or external considerations will affect the choice 4
  6. 6. Once the Route is Chosen We Need to Monitor Progress and Events to Decide if the Pathway Remains Correct • Monitoring everything is neither useful or possible… • …But monitoring progress along the route and potential events is advisable • Knowing what to monitor and the signs to look for becomes a key capability • Knowing………. What the showstoppers are! When a change in technology is required How to resolve conflicting signs 5
  7. 7. Technology Roadmaps Are Not Conceptually Different from a Road Map… • Technology roadmaps should set out the landscape: the status and direction of an opportunity, an application and the associated technologies. • Time is the major axis and a key uncertainty: roadmaps can no more predict the future than crystal balls, but they can set out the possibilities • The industry-level roadmap shows the possible paths that individual organizations (as well as their products, services and technologies) might take in developing the opportunity • A company pathway sets out what an organization is going to do Now 2 Years 5 Years Product/Service A B C • Milestones help plot the pathway and are used to measure Functional progress Requirements A B C Technologies 1 2 3 4 Pathway Milestone 6
  8. 8. …In Reality, Roadmaps Can Take Many Different Forms • Some of the most well-known technology roadmaps are the result of widespread industry consensus • The International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors sets out major device-level functional requirements, the technology options and roadblocks • The ITRS is designed to keep Moore’s law on track and is not geared to specific user applications and markets • These types of roadmaps are particularly designed with milestone technology planning in mind. Technology Time Functionality or metric Source: ITRS Unknown solutions: roadblocks 7
  9. 9. At SRIC-BI, We Focus on What We Call Strategic Technology Roadmaps The word “strategic” is frequently used: what do we mean by it here? • We mean that the roadmap is more than just about technology Industry-Level Roadmap Development • The roadmap must outline the Now 2 Years 5 Years products and services, within the Business Need Competition Market opportunity, that businesses or Considerations consumers would actually buy Products/Services A B C • It must relate product and services to functional requirements and/or Features/Functions A B C technologies • It must describe key business Technologies 1 2 3 4 considerations that help us decide what is the right pathway 8
  10. 10. How To Make a Technology Roadmap: First Create a Profile of the Opportunity • First and foremost, creating a technology roadmap requires industry research to describe the opportunity: — What is market need and the likely evolution of products and services? — What are the enabling technologies, and how might they evolve? — What are the critical success factors and other business considerations? — What are the key uncertainties? • In project work, SRIC-BI typically uses a standard profile template • Where possible, industry interviews should help gauge the product/service evolution and technology hurdles. ANALYSIS OPPORTUNITY Business Attractiveness Key Success Factors DESCRIPTION • Potential revenue • Business model • Need • Profitability • Alliances/partners • Products/services • Competition • Level of service required • Markets • Regulations • Technology • Value chain • Entry barriers • Channels • R&D requirements • Manufacturing • Risk • Marketing 9
  11. 11. From Profile to Technology Roadmap • The various elements of the profile become the major inputs to the roadmap • In reality, creating the roadmap may require further research about product, market and technology progression and timing • Creating a timeline helps ensure products do not occur before the enabling technologies are ready!!! Products/Services & Functions Products/ Services 1 Products/ Services 2 Products/Services A B C A B C Industry-Level Roadmap Development Necessary Now 2 Years 5 Years Features/Functions Business Need Competition Market 1..……. Considerations Opportunity 2.…….. 3. …. Profile Products/Services A B C Features/Functions Technologies & A B C Business Considerations Technologies 1 2 3 4 Technologies 1..….. 2..….. 3..…. Business Considerations 1..….. 2..….. 3. …. 10
  12. 12. Example Industry-Level Roadmap • Roadmap for a Japanese multinational IT company in the area of Integrated Enterprise Information Systems • Accompanying tables describe the products, services, functions, technologies and business considerations Industry Roadmap Now N-1 1 Yr 1-3 3 Yrs 3-5 5 Yrs 5-7 7 Yrs 7- Business B1 B3 B5 B48 B50 B52 B54 B56 B57 Considerations B2 B4 B47 B49 B51 B53 B55 B6 B11 Products/ B7 B9 B62 B64 B67 B12 B15 B16 Services B8 B60 B10 B17 B75 B77 B58 B59 B61 B63 B66 B69 B71 B74 B68 B14 B70 B72 B96 B105 B27 Function B82 B85 B92 B94 B97 B101 B79 B83 B89 B19 B95 B22 B86 B21 B18 B90 B93 B20 B99 B103 B80 B87 B106 B100 B104 B84 B91 B42 Technologies B108 B32 B36 B88 B44 B40 B28 B33 B110 B112 B45 B41 B116 B117 B29 B34 B37 B113 B23 B30 B35 B111 B114 B25 B118 B26 B31 B38 B115 B39 11
  13. 13. From Industry Roadmap to Company Pathway • First and foremost, industry roadmaps set out multiple pathways and options • Just like a travel road map, they make us confront the decisions that need to be taken to move forward: to get from A to B • When creating a company-specific roadmap or pathway, the business considerations set out what we need to consider to make the decision • Business consideration examples might include: — A missing core competence — A market uncertainty — A competitive threat or critical success factor Company Roadmap (Pathway) • The company pathway and Now 2 Years 5 Years milestones chart the Business This way No This way No company’s course Need Competition Yes Market Yes Considerations • Signposts are set up to make sure we are on track and don’t Product/Service A B C need to change course Pathway • Programs like SRIC-BI’s Functional Explorer can help with Requirements A B C Milestone signpost monitoring This way No Technologies 1 2 3 4 Yes Signpost 12
  14. 14. Roadmap Development Recap ct oj e pl e Pr m a Ex Industry Roadmap Now N-1 1 Yr 1-3 3 Yrs 3-5 5 Yrs 5-7 7 Yrs 7- Industry Roadmaps Business B1 B3 B5 B48 B50 B52 B54 B56 B57 Considerations B2 B4 B47 B49 B51 B53 B55 B6 B11 • Set out key business considerations, Products/ B62 B64 B67 B12 B15 Services B7 B8 B58 B9 B59 B60 B61 B10 B63 B66 B68 B17 B69 B71 B74 B75 B77 B16 products/services, functions, and technologies for B14 B70 a potential opportunity for commercialization B72 B96 B105 B27 Function B82 B85 B92 B94 B97 B101 B79 B83 B89 B19 B95 B22 B86 B21 B80 B18 B84 B87 B90 B91 B93 B20 B99 B100 B103 B104 B106 • Provide a basis for selected strategy (path) B42 Technologies B108 B32 B36 B88 B44 B40 B28 B33 B110 B112 B45 B41 B116 B117 B29 B34 B37 B113 B23 B30 B35 B111 B114 B25 B118 B26 B31 B38 B115 B39 Company Path N-1 1-3 3-5 5-7 7- Company Path Business Now 1 Yr 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs B1 B3 B5 B48 B50 B52 B54 B56 B57 Considerations B2 (Signposts) B4 B47 B49 B51 B53 B55 • Selected strategy elements--business Products/ Services B6 B7 B8 B11 B9 B200 B60 B62 B10 B64 B67 B17 B12 B15 B75 B16 B77 considerations, products/services, functions, and B58 B59 B61 B63 B66 B69 B71 B74 technologies over time B68 B14 B70 B72 B96 B27 Function B82 B85 B92 B94 B97 B101 B105 B22 • Describes important business considerations and B79 B83 B89 B19 B95 B86 B21 B18 B90 B93 B20 B99 B103 B80 B87 B106 B100 B104 B84 B91 Technologies B108 B32 B28 B33 B36 B110 B112 B88 B41 B116 B44 B117 B40 B42 B45 products/services, etc. to be created B29 B34 B37 B113 B23 B30 B35 B111 B114 B25 B118 B26 B31 B38 B39 B115 • Identifies strategic signposts to be monitored 13
  15. 15. Now I Have a Roadmap, What Do I Do With it? • Company roadmaps are only a description of the organization’s path; to be useful they must lead to action • Describing, selecting and carrying out the action steps is more challenging than charting a path, but ultimately that is where the value lies • A road map analogy again: — A road map helps you chart your journey — An action plan sets out: – Checking the weather before you start – Filling up the car with gas – Putting the snow tires on – Not forgetting to bring: the map, the children, the dog……… — Some actions may be more of a priority than others! 14
  16. 16. Action Roadmaps are Essential (Plans Without Actions Have No Value) • Action roadmaps display and describe the basic actions required to execute the pathway (strategy). • Priority (short term) actions are highlighted. • Key monitoring elements and signposts are described Action Roadmap Now 1 Years 3 Years 10 Years 5 Years Business B3 Considerations B1 ple (signposts) B2 Exam B4 P1 Products/Services P3 P2 P4 P5 Company Roadmap Functions/ T1 T4 Now 2 Years This way This way 5 Years Technologies & T2 T5 Business Considerations Need Competition No Yes Market No Yes Other Capabilities T3 T7 T6 Product/Service A B C Pathway Functional Continuous monitoring or improvement Requirements A B C Priority Actions Milestone Leads to next generation This way No B1: Verify need and initial target Technologies 1 2 3 4 Yes Signpost B2: Monitor key threats P1: Design and bundle initial product/service P2: Test customer acceptance 15
  17. 17. Roadmapping Uses: A Focus on Business Strategy and Product/Service Development • The ultimate aim of developing roadmaps and action plans will vary by company and project, but two obvious different cases exist: 1. Using the roadmap principally for business strategy, entry options and product/service development 2. Using the roadmap for developing a technology strategy or portfolio • In the first case, the potential product/service pathways are critical, as is a close examination of the business considerations — Business considerations will capture threats from competition and key business challenges, organizational issues, or consumer acceptance — Actions might be: the need to test consumer acceptance of products; alliance or acquisition analysis; the need to develop internal capabilities such as a service organization — In such cases as this, the technologies may be readily acquired, or the necessary technology alliances can be easily formed 16
  18. 18. Roadmapping Uses: Selecting a Technology Portfolio • For technology-oriented organizations (government labs, corporate research departments), the focus for roadmaps and actions may be on developing future technology concepts and other capabilities • Multiple product/service roadmaps can serve as the basis for developing a technology portfolio • Actions may relate to filling key capabilities, licensing and R&D partnering Technology Concept Analysis and Selection Multiple Product/Service Roadmaps Products & Product b Product d Product a Product c Product e Service b Service d Service a Service c Service e Product f Service f Industry Level Roadmap 1 Services Industry Level Roadmap 2 Industry Level Roadmap 3 Techs & 5 Roadmap 4 Industry Level Years Now 10 Years Industry Level RoadmapYears Now 5 Years 10 5 Other capabilities Industry Level Roadmap 6 Now 5 Years 10 Years Products/Services A Now B 5 Years C 10 Years Technology a X X X Products/Services A Now B 5 Years C 10 Years Products/Services A Now B 5 YearsC 10 Years Products/Services A B C Technology b X X Features/Functions Products/Services A BA BC C Features/Functions Products/ServicesA BA BC C Technology c X X X X X X X Features/Functions A B C Features/Functions A B C Features/Functions 1 2 A 3 B 4 C Technology e X X X X X X Technologies Features/Functions 1 2 A 3 B4 C Technologies 1 2 3 4 Technologies Technologies 1 Distribution Channels 3 2 4 Other Capabilities Technologies 1 Distribution Channels 3 2 Customer acceptance 4 Capability 1 X X Other Capabilities Technologies 1Distribution Channels 3 Customer2 assessment system acceptance 4 Other Capabilities Distribution Channels assessment system Customer acceptance Other Capabilities assessment Channels Distribution system Customer acceptance Capability 2 X X X X X X X Other Capabilities Distribution Channels assessment system Customer acceptance Other Capabilities assessment system Customer acceptance Capability 3 X X X X X X assessment system Capability 4 X X X X X X X 17
  19. 19. Roadmap Development Recap ple m E xa Industry Roadmap Now N-1 1 Yr 1-3 3 Yrs 3-5 5 Yrs 5-7 7 Yrs 7- Industry Roadmaps Business B1 B3 B5 B48 B50 B52 B54 B56 B57 Considerations B2 B4 B47 B49 B51 B53 B55 B6 B11 • Set out key business considerations, Products/ B62 B64 B67 B12 B15 Services B7 B8 B58 B9 B59 B60 B61 B10 B63 B66 B68 B17 B69 B71 B74 B75 B77 B16 products/services, functions, and technologies for B14 B70 a potential opportunity for commercialization B72 B96 B105 B27 Function B82 B85 B92 B94 B97 B101 B79 B83 B89 B19 B95 B22 B86 B21 B80 B18 B84 B87 B90 B91 B93 B20 B99 B100 B103 B104 B106 • Provide a basis for selected strategy (path) B42 Technologies B108 B32 B36 B88 B44 B40 B28 B33 B110 B112 B45 B41 B116 B117 B29 B34 B37 B113 B23 B30 B35 B111 B114 B25 B118 B26 B31 B38 B115 B39 N-1 1-3 Company Path 3-5 5-7 7- Company Path Business Now 1 Yr 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Considerations B2 (Signposts) B1 B3 B4 B5 B47 B48 B49 B50 B51 B53 B52 B54 B55 B56 B57 • Selected strategy elements--business Products/ Services B6 B7 B8 B11 B9 B200 B60 B62 B10 B64 B67 B17 B12 B15 B75 B16 considerations, products/services, functions, and B77 technologies over time B58 B59 B61 B63 B66 B69 B71 B74 B68 B14 B70 B72 B96 B27 Function B82 B85 B92 B94 B97 B101 B105 B79 B80 B83 B18 B84 B86 B87 B91 B89 B90 B19 B93 B95 B20 B99 B100 B21 B103 B104 B22 B106 • Describes important business considerations and Technologies B108 B32 B28 B33 B36 B110 B112 B88 B44 B40 B42 B45 products/services, etc. to be created B41 B116 B117 B29 B34 B37 B113 B23 B111 B114 • Identifies strategic signposts to be monitored B30 B35 B25 B118 B26 B31 B38 B115 B39 Actions Now 1 Yr 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Actions Business Z1 Z4 Considerations (Signposts) Z2 Z3 • Displays and describes required actions to Products/ Services Z5 Z6 Z9 Z10 execute company pathways Z7 Z8 • Highlights priority actions Functions/ Z11 Z15 Technologies Z14 Z16 Z18 Z12 Z13 Z17 18
  20. 20. Outline of Presentation • What are technology roadmaps? • How do I make one? • What would I do if I had one? • Ways to get started: Explorer to custom technology roadmapping • Some project examples from SRIC-BI 19
  21. 21. What Does a Custom Roadmap Mean in the Context of Explorer? • Explorer is a syndicated program, with a wide and diverse client base • The Explorer charts of technology commercialization are designed for breadth — Explorer highlights the commercial implications, from technology development, for many products, industries and markets — Technology maps often combine many different enabling technologies • In contrast, a custom roadmap is created with an individual organization in mind • However, Explorer’s research and technology maps are a good basis from which to develop a customized roadmap — To aid in developing the opportunity profiles — To identify critical enabling technologies and inhibitors — To assist with player profiling that is often an important feature of such projects — To identify important areas to monitor 20

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