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Space Weather


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Paul Kintner, 2010 American Astronautical Society Goddard Memorial Symposium

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Space Weather

  1. 1. Paul Kintner DOS-Space and Advanced Technology and Cornell University Goddard Memorial Symposium Space Weather
  2. 2. Take Away Points <ul><li>The Sun is a variable star </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Space weather is still in the exploration phase </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Space weather has been relatively benign during the space age </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Recent GPS technologies and business plans have been deployed during solar minimum </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Solar maximum (sunspot max) is predicted in 2013 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>GPS is embedded in our technical infrastructure </li></ul></ul>
  3. 3. Ionospheric Effects on EM Waves Amplitude And Phase
  4. 4. Wide Area Augmentation System
  5. 5. WAAS Weaknesses <ul><li>WAAS is vulnerable to ionospheric gradients </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ionosphere changes rapidly between reference stations </li></ul></ul><ul><li>WAAS in vulnerable to “fast” ionospheric changes </li></ul><ul><ul><li>WAAS message takes 6 minutes to transmit </li></ul></ul><ul><li>FAA is very conservative </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Errors must be bounded by seven 9’s </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Errors can only be exceed system reporting once on 10 million occurrences </li></ul></ul>
  6. 6. Example of Ionospheric Gradients Producing Ranging Errors <ul><li>Steep gradients in space and time </li></ul><ul><li>Reference receiver at Hawk Run yields 25 m ranging error at Pittsburgh </li></ul><ul><li>Temporal gradients of 20 m per 5 min too rapid for current systems </li></ul><ul><li>Positioning error is 2-3 times ranging error or 40-75 m </li></ul>
  7. 7. WAAS Availability
  8. 8. Solar Radio Bursts <ul><li>Broadband bursts of radio noise created during solar flares </li></ul><ul><ul><li>But no one-to-one correspondence </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Extend from below 10MHz to above 10GHz </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Includes the GPS frequencies </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Last ten’s of minutes </li></ul>
  9. 9. Solar Radio Bursts 2006
  10. 10. Solar Radio Burst 2006 <ul><li>100 times larger than any previous solar radio burst at solar minimum </li></ul><ul><ul><li>1,000,000 Solar Flux Units (SFU) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Records of solar radio bursts go back to 1960 </li></ul><ul><li>The primary instrument(s) for solar radio burst monitoring saturate at 100,000 SFU </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Why? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Confirmation bias? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Lost history </li></ul>
  11. 11. Amplitude Scintillation
  12. 12. Precision GPS <ul><li>Caterpillar AccuGrade GPS Control System for bulldozers </li></ul><ul><li>For automated grading at 1 cm level </li></ul><ul><li>Reference receiver with two GPS receivers on ends of blade </li></ul><ul><li>Uses PHASE of GPS signal not range! </li></ul><ul><li>Vulnerable to scintillation </li></ul>
  13. 13. Space Katrina Carrington 1859 Event <ul><li>Messenger (deck log: Lat. 49 o ) “we witnessed the most magnificent display of the aurora boreales (sic) imaginable … the whole firmament was a blaze of Crimson shooting up from all points of the compass but the most splendid from the South W. I have not the language to describe it” </li></ul>
  14. 14. What Can Be Done? <ul><li>Cornell </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Developed a scintillation simulator </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Working with industry to develop test programs for their receivers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Developing space weather sensors based on GPS for predicting space weather </li></ul></ul><ul><li>State Department </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Promoting space weather awareness globally </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Long Term Sustainability of Outer Space </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>EU-US dialog </li></ul></ul></ul>
  15. 15. Questions?
  16. 16. GPS Growth <ul><li>Global Positioning System used: In-vehicle </li></ul><ul><li>navigation systems, railway control, highway </li></ul><ul><li>traffic management, emergency response, </li></ul><ul><li>commercial aviation, and much more… </li></ul><ul><li>GPS Global Production Value—expected growth: </li></ul><ul><li>2003 - $13 billion </li></ul><ul><li>2008 - $21.5 billion </li></ul><ul><li>2017 - $757 billion </li></ul><ul><li>Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI) – Mar 2005 </li></ul><ul><li>Space weather creates positioning errors larger than 50 meters </li></ul><ul><li>— A mid-latitude problem (where most users reside!) </li></ul>NAVSTAR - USA GLONASS - Russia Galileo - Europe
  17. 17. Space Weather in the United Nations <ul><li>UN Office of Outer Space Affairs (OOSA) </li></ul><ul><li>UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Long Term Sustainability of Outer Space </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>International Space Weather Initiative </li></ul></ul><ul><li>International Telecommunications Union (UTC) </li></ul><ul><li>International Civil Aviation Organization </li></ul><ul><li>International Maritime Organization </li></ul>
  18. 18. Space Weather in the United Nations 60 th Session of the WMO Executive Council in Geneva, June 2008: “ ...the Council fully endorsed the principle of WMO activities in support of international coordination in Space Weather.” World Meteorological Organization (WMO) WMO Members with Space Weather within National Meteorology Services: Australia, China, Finland, Russia, U.S.
  19. 19. International Partnerships <ul><li>International Space Environment Service </li></ul><ul><ul><li>12 Regional Warning Centers around the Globe </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>In discussion with World Meteorological Organization </li></ul></ul>Brazil (INPE): South Africa (IMT): South Korea: - Applied for membership