Planetary Defense and NEO Exploration


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2011 American Astronautical Society Robert H. Goddard Memorial Symposium--Tom Jones, Florida Institute for Human & Machine Cognition

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Planetary Defense and NEO Exploration

  1. 1. 49th Goddard<br />Memorial Symposium<br />Thomas D. Jones, PhD <br /><br />Greenbelt, MD<br />March 31, 2011<br />Hayabusa Return<br />
  2. 2. Report<br />of the<br />NASA Advisory Council<br />Ad Hoc Task Force on Planetary Defense<br />October 6, 2010<br /><br />2<br />
  3. 3. NAC Task Force on Planetary Defense<br />Russell L. Schweickart<br />Chairman, B612 Foundation<br />(Task Force Co-Chair)<br /> <br />Brian Wilcox<br />Principal Member of Technical Staff<br />Jet Propulsion Laboratory<br /> <br />Donald K. Yeomans<br />Manager, Near-Earth Object Program Office<br />Jet Propulsion Laboratory<br /> <br />Executive Secretary<br />Bette Siegel<br />Exploration Systems Mission Directorate<br />HQ NASA<br />Richard P. Binzel<br />Professor of Planetary Science<br />Massachusetts Institute of Technology<br /> <br />Clark R. Chapman<br />Senior Scientist<br />Southwest Research Institute<br /> <br />Lindley N. Johnson<br />Program Executive<br />Near-Earth Object Observations Program<br />HQ NASA<br /> <br />Thomas D. Jones<br />Visiting Senior Research Scientist<br />Institute for Human and Machine Cognition<br />(Task Force Co-Chair)<br />
  4. 4. <ul><li>Search programs are rapidly increasing NEO discovery rate
  5. 5. Many PHOs will have “worrisome probability of impact”
  6. 6. Threshold for concern? Impact probability of 1/1000? 1/100? 1/50?
  7. 7. Imperfect information at time deflection decision needed
  8. 8. Deflection decision frequency considerably higher than actual impact frequency (20:1, 50:1, 100:1?)
  9. 9. International leadership needed: Inevitable risk shifting as impact point point is moved to eliminate risk for all</li></ul>4<br />
  10. 10. <ul><li>NASA NEO activity is “3-D”: exploration, science, planetary defense (PD)
  11. 11. Minor incremental cost to “other” space missions can yield large increase in PD knowledge
  12. 12. Example: Science mission can demonstrate prox- ops algorithms for PD, human exploration
  13. 13. Example: NEO’s interior structure, physical properties, and stability of surface materials </li></ul>(for human exploration) aids PD planning<br />5<br />Synergies from Planetary Defense(1 of 2)<br />
  14. 14. <ul><li>Time is a 4th dimension of NASA’s NEO research
  15. 15. Early integration of PD results in faster maturity of technology
  16. 16. Eliminates cost of duplicate flight missions
  17. 17. Integrating PD into science and human exploration missions increases overall knowledge return
  18. 18. Meets needs of managers, policy makers, scientists, public</li></ul>6<br />Version 12<br />Synergies from Planetary Defense(2 of 2)<br />
  19. 19. Task Force Recommendations<br />Organize for Effective Action on Planetary Defense<br />Acquire Essential Search, Track, and Warning Capabilities<br />Investigate the Nature of the Impact Threat<br />Prepare to Respond to Impact Threats<br />Lead U.S. Planetary Defense Efforts in National and International Forums<br />
  20. 20. 2.3 Short-term Warning: <br />NASA should investigate development of low cost, short-term impact warning systems<br />-- stats on small bodies, science cueing, public outreach<br />8<br /> <br />
  21. 21. Space-based NEO Search: <br />Showing orbit geometry when Earth and the spacecraft are on approximately opposite sides of the sun. Earth-based telescopes will detect some NEOs that the space-based telescope will miss during the NEO perihelion passage. The resulting completeness will be better than with any single telescope.<br />Ball Aerospace<br />
  22. 22. 10<br />
  23. 23. Amor<br />
  24. 24. 12<br />
  25. 25. NEO Search  Exploration<br />Risk Reduction<br /><ul><li>NEO Search Will Fill in Operations “Flight Data File”
  26. 26. EVA, tools, science, rendezvous, descent, etc.
  27. 27. Reduces Operations, Crew, and Program Risk
  28. 28. Known environment
  29. 29. Can prepare operations skill set
  30. 30. Verify mission is within crew capabilities
  31. 31. More targets  reduced flight duration, mission ΔV
  32. 32. Expanded program flexibility
  33. 33. Ties human exploration directly to human survival</li></li></ul><li>
  34. 34. Association <br />of<br />Space Explorers<br /><br />Art by Dan Durda<br />