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Project Data Analytics - How do we leverage experience of project delivery? webinar, 20 March 2018

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Project Data Analytics - How do we leverage experience of project delivery? webinar
Tuesday 20 March 2018

presented by Martin Paver, established London Project Data and Analytics Meetup
hosted by Merv Wyeth, Benefits Management SIG Secretary

The link to the write up page and resources of this webinar:
https://www.apm.org.uk/news/project-data-analytics-how-do-we-leverage-experience-of-project-delivery-webinar/

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Project Data Analytics - How do we leverage experience of project delivery? webinar, 20 March 2018

  1. 1. Copyright Projecting Success 2018 Martin Paver CEO/Founder Projecting Success martinpaver@projectingsuccess.co.uk Merv Wyeth Amplify UK Delivery Partner merv@mervwyeth.com
  2. 2. Copyright Projecting Success 2018 The Journey So Far…. "Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it."Project, Programme, Portfolio Management Engineering Lessons learned Leveraging Experience Contexturalised application
  3. 3. Copyright Projecting Success 2018 The failure of the FiReControl project The Stark Reality of Not Leveraging Experience Common Agricultural Policy Futures programme We do not expect the programme to deliver value for money. The cost of £178 million is 74 per cent more than the original business case, and the programme will not fully deliver the anticipated benefits. Farmers reported they have been adversely affected by the programme delays, highlighting cash flow problems that have knock-on effects for the wider rural economy. http://www.audit-scotland.gov.uk/uploads/docs/report/2016/nr_160519_cap_futures.pdf ‘911 Upgrade’ (Emergency Communications Transformation Program) The project started in 2004 with an estimated cost of $1.3 billion and a three year time frame. According to an audit from City Comptroller, released 21 March 2012, the project is now $1 billion over budget and seven years behind schedule. The Comptroller blamed the cost overruns on inadequate project management within the city. http://sa.acs.org.au/gallery/leaders_lunch/20120516_Common_causes_of_failure_in_major_ICT-enabled_projects.pdf NHS 24 The total cost of the Future Programme had risen by 55 per cent to £117.4 million, compared to a business case cost of £75.8 million covering the ten- year contract period. The increase was due to changes in the contract specification and costs associated with the delay in implementing the IT system. [2016] http://www.audit-scotland.gov.uk/uploads/docs/report/2016/s22_161006_nhs_24.pdf Disclosure Scotland The whole programme was estimated to cost £31 million and included a £29 million project to design and build a new ICT system to support the new arrangements and replace the existing system, along with other information management projects, training and guidance. The programme experienced a number of significant problems when it went live in February 2011. Disclosure Scotland and the supplier continue to work on these problems and core functionality is now expected to be established by autumn 2012. Crown Office and Procurator Fiscal Service (COPFS) The Phoenix programme was initiated in early 2009, at an estimated cost of £10 million, because a number of software elements of the existing case management system used to help prepare criminal cases for prosecution were outdated and lacked readily available technical support. Management of the programme exhibited a number of weaknesses but it was cancelled in November 2010 before construction started due to increased costs and a significantly reduced capital budget. National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System Department of Veterans Affairs’ Scheduling Replacement Project was terminated in September 2009 after spending an estimated $127 million over 9 years. http://www.gao.gov/assets/690/681420.pdf Secure Border Initiative Network program The Department of Homeland Security’s Secure Border Initiative Network program was ended in January 2011, after the department obligated more than $1 billion to the program, because it did not meet cost-effectiveness and viability standards. http://www.gao.gov/assets/690/681420.pdf Financial and Logistics Integrated Technology Enterprise program The Department of Veterans Affairs’ Financial and Logistics Integrated Technology Enterprise program was intended to be delivered by 2014 at a total estimated cost of $609 million, but was terminated in October 2011 due to challenges in managing the program http://www.gao.gov/assets/690/681420.pdf eCare eCare programme was supposed to solve all our data communication problems in the health and social care service, but it was abandoned completely after seven or eight years at—we are told—a cost of £56 million, although I suspect that the cost was substantially more. http://www.parliament.scot/S4_PublicAuditCommittee/20_January_2016.pdf Registers of Scotland (RoS) Responsible for compiling and maintaining registers relating to property and other legal documents. Its annual operating costs were £78 million in 2010/11. While both RoS and BT consider the ongoing ICT service provision has largely been successful, RoS now considers that the partnership outsourcing of all ICT was inappropriate and it has terminated the SPA. Two individual projects within the programme now cancelled, with costs of £6.7 million written off in March 2011. Expeditionary Combat Support System The Department of Defense’s Expeditionary Combat Support System was canceled in December 2012 after spending more than a billion dollars and failing to deploy within 5 years of initially obligating funds. http://www.gao.gov/assets/690/681420.pdf Retirement Systems Modernization program The Office of Personnel Management’s Retirement Systems Modernization program was canceled in February 2011, after spending approximately $231 million on the agency’s third attempt to automate the processing of federal employee retirement claims. http://www.gao.gov/assets/690/681420.pdf >£20,000,000,000
  4. 4. Copyright Projecting Success 2018 Stagnating Productivity
  5. 5. Copyright Projecting Success 2018 Capacity to Learn From Experience Home Office Government Major Projects Portfolio 2016 Ministry of Justice Government Major Projects Portfolio 2016 With so many projects not delivering to plan there should be a rich opportunity for leveraging experience for the collective benefit of UK PLC…. …..but there is limited evidence of this happening. Dept of Health Government Major Projects Portfolio 2016 Ministry of Defence Government Major Projects Portfolio 2016
  6. 6. Copyright Projecting Success 2018 Digging a Little Deeper Year RAG Forecast End Forecast Whole Life Costs £m 2012 31/12/2014 138 2013 01/04/2016 1375 2014 01/09/2016 1205 2015 30/11/2017 1706 2016 30/11/2017 2879 Source: GMPP Reports
  7. 7. Copyright Projecting Success 2018 Lessons on a Major Project Please vote at Mentimeter A recent example from the Government Major Projects Portfolio….
  8. 8. Copyright Projecting Success 2018 But aren’t the NAO fixing the problem? https://www.nao.org.uk/naoblog/a-systematic-look-at-major-programmes/ It is the role of Departments to leverage the experience, not the NAO We agree that there is insufficient learning from past failures in project delivery
  9. 9. Copyright Projecting Success 2018 Over 15,000 Lessons….. Overview >50 Organisations >1,000 Projects >2 Years of effort to collate Covering 3Continents Estimated Portfolio ~$30 bn From …. ”Benefits clearer” to …”There was insufficient clarity about accountability for each budget line, reflecting a centralised approach to budget management. Poor links between the Finance Team and key programmes compounded this lack of accountability, which meant that forecasting, monitoring and budget discussions, as well as early planning of procurement strategies, did not take place in a sufficiently timely manner to identify and address the key risks”.
  10. 10. Copyright Projecting Success 2018 Existing Lessons Learned Analysis http://www.treasury.govt.nz
  11. 11. Copyright Projecting Success 2018 Pursuing the case for change Programme Manager for £400m portfolio of 60 projects
  12. 12. Copyright Projecting Success 2018 Is This A Knowledge Management Problem? Project, Programme, Portfolio Management Technical Delivery I don’t know I do know Knowable Unknowable
  13. 13. Copyright Projecting Success 2018 ‘(Un)Avoidability’ of lessons / Impact •Act of God, environmental factors •Unknown/unknowable external event •Unknown/knowable external event •Known external event •Internal decision or organisational constraint •Lesson identified or known but deemed irrelevant •Lesson identified or known but ignored due to other priorities/resourcing Unavoidable lesson But may be aware of emerging environmental conditions Avoidable lesson Priority, resourcing, SQEP or judgment call Strategic lesson Organisation proceeded knowing that strategic decisions may/will likely impact the project. Lesson learned was foreseeable and wasn’t mitigated. (Un)Avoidability Observation? Something to consider in the next phase? Missing the basics and don’t know better Should know better Fundamental shortfall with minor impact Fundamental shortfall with major impact Impact
  14. 14. Copyright Projecting Success 2018 The Link Between Risk and Lessons Risk IssueLesson If the lesson is not acted upon it becomes a risk for the next project How many organisations link lessons learned and risk management? What is the correlation between risk drawdown and lessons learned? Tolerate Treat Transfer Terminate
  15. 15. Copyright Projecting Success 2018 Projects: An Enabler or Primary Purpose? Project Duration Similarity Short Long SimilarDissimilar Major IT upgrades Business transformation Enabling Activity Office Move New office Call Centre Project Duration Similarity Short Long SimilarDissimilar Event management Major IT upgrades Business transformation Office Move Crossrail New office Primary Activity HS2 Call Centre Station refit Station build 1, 2, 3
  16. 16. Copyright Projecting Success 2018 Instinctive Behaviours System 1 System 1 is an automatic, fast and often unconscious way of thinking. •It is autonomous and efficient, requiring little energy or attention, •Is susceptical to biases and systematic errors. System 2 is an effortful, slow and controlled way of thinking. It requires energy and can’t work without attention but, once engaged, has the ability to filter the instincts of System 1 System 2 Nudge Theory We adjust our driving to the conditions of the road We adjust our speed if we know that others have experienced costly accidents VS System 1 and 2 thinking
  17. 17. Copyright Projecting Success 2018 Counteracting Bias • Consistency/desirability bias • Recency effects • Human memory bias • Optimism bias • ‘Strategic Deception’ Data
  18. 18. Copyright Projecting Success 2018 A Glimpse into the Future
  19. 19. Copyright Projecting Success 2018 Leveraging the Connected Data Projects LessonsRisks$ Graph Data Stored in Silos TechnicalSafetySecurity Compensation Event £ Claim Action Properties: Process change Workflow escalation Cost of mitigation action Due date Future contracts
  20. 20. Copyright Projecting Success 2018 Leveraging the Connected Data Northern Ireland Lessons Learned Project A Risks Lessons$ Project A Risks Lessons$ Project A Risks Lessons$ Project A Risks Lessons$ Project A Risks Lessons$ Silos of data Connected data
  21. 21. Copyright Projecting Success 2018 Expand to include: • Risks, Issues, Assumptions, Management Actions, Lessons etc. • Validated data. • Use case drives the data model. • Requires millions of data points. Example: Reference Class Forecasting • Best predictor of performance is actual performance of similar projects. • Provides an outside view. • Challenges bias and strategic deception.
  22. 22. Copyright Projecting Success 2018 A vision
  23. 23. Copyright Projecting Success 2018 Some examples Recommender systems Deep Learning Text Analytics
  24. 24. Copyright Projecting Success 2018 Things are changing…. at pace
  25. 25. Copyright Projecting Success 2018 We can analyse the data in a matter of days Leveragingexperience.com
  26. 26. Copyright Projecting Success 2018 Predisposition A genetic predisposition is an increased likelihood of developing a particular disease based on a person's genetic makeup.
  27. 27. Copyright Projecting Success 2018 Structuring the Data A bucket of stuff DATA LAKE Use Case Example: A PM wants to be able to see what risks occurred on similar projects, how they evolved and how successful the management action was so that they can develop their risk management plan. Data model How will I capture and integrate the data to satisfy the views? Views How will I present the information to satisfy the user story? User Story As a PM I want to be able to see relevant risks that evolved into issues so that I can build contingency into my risk budget. DATA WAREHOUSE But is it the ‘right’ stuff?
  28. 28. Copyright Projecting Success 2018 Is My Organisation Ready for This? Perspective 1: The driver for change A need to respond Lead times Efficiency A thirst for data Millions of data points ”Machine Learning and AI will be bigger than the internet” Lance Olson 2018 Reputation Avoiding the avoidable APM Programme Management Conference 2018 Rod Sowden Perspective 2: The capacity for change • Committed leadership • Need a hunger for improvement • Self critical/restless • Learning organisation • Measure performance & look for opportunities to improve • Curate their knowledge • Clear vision & outcomes • Need to be at P3M3 level 3 or above What High Performers do
  29. 29. Copyright Projecting Success 2018 So Where Do We Start? Vision • A viable destination • A routemap to get there • Senior level commitment Survey • Approach to/capacity for leveraging experience • Available assets Data • Quality, completeness • Scope, availability • Sensitivity Use cases • Problem statements • Requirement decomposition Agile Iteration • Develop approach/methods • Develop systems • Develop data & data model • Demonstrate utility/ value • Build interest/momentum Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 A multi-year journey… data can take years to collate
  30. 30. Copyright Projecting Success 2018 Summary • Lessons learned systems are ineffective unless….. (for another day!) • The solution will be data driven; the pressure to open up data will continue to build. • Connected data enables insights that flat data can never provide. • Repeating avoidable problems will become indefensible. • Decisions increasingly shaped by experience, mitigating bias. • Significant opportunity for performance improvement. • Machine learning is marching towards us and will be transformational. • We need to develop an approach to support it.
  31. 31. Copyright Projecting Success 2018 What to learn more? Martin Paver martinpaver@projectingsuccess.co.uk 07775704044
  32. 32. Copyright Projecting Success 2018 Any questions, comments…?
  33. 33. This presentation was delivered at an APM webinar To find out more about upcoming webinars please visit our website www.apm.org.uk/events

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