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Lessons learned in implementing a QRA capability - Egan Naidoo

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The APM Risk SIG presented a Quantitative Risk Analysis event that provided perspectives across the project stakeholder spectrum, from client decision-makers to risk analysts and consultants.

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Lessons learned in implementing a QRA capability - Egan Naidoo

  1. 1. Agenda • Organisation • Risk Management Development • QRA Process • QRA Outputs • 4 Projects • Common Implementation Challenges • Success Stories • Future Focus Areas
  2. 2. The Organisation • African energy utility • Challenges – facing the country – facing the organisation • Project Management history
  3. 3. Risk Management Development • Where we were • Where we are • Where we are heading
  4. 4. QRA Process
  5. 5. Typical QRA Output – Distributions
  6. 6. Typical QRA Output – Tornado Graph
  7. 7. Project A • Pump storage scheme • Late stage of Execution • Implementation Approach • Receptiveness of QRA and results • Implementation lessons o Successes o Challenges
  8. 8. Project B • Rail Project • Early stage of Execution • Implementation Approach • Receptiveness of QRA and results • Implementation lessons o Successes o Challenges
  9. 9. Project C • Gas Turbine Power Station • Definition phase • Implementation Approach • Receptiveness of QRA and results • Implementation lessons o Successes o Challenges
  10. 10. Project D • Coal fired power station • Early stage of Execution • Implementation Approach • Receptiveness of QRA and results • Implementation lessons o Successes o Challenges
  11. 11. Common Implementation Challenges • Understanding uncertainty, risk and statistics • Planners reluctant to take ownership of the uncertainty data • Management acceptance that QRA is a different way of analysing risk • Educating project stakeholders on using percentiles for decision-making (P80) • Implementation capacity • Continuity of QRA process – lack of project-based resources • How to get QRA onto a project earlier enough for it to be beneficial
  12. 12. Success Stories • Collaboration with the project team pays dividends • Treatment plans starting to be built into schedule • “You have empowered me to challenge the imposed schedule deadline” • “I don’t like what your analysis is showing but it’s a realistic picture that I have to accept” • “I now know what is driving my schedule and I can concentrate on lowering the uncertainty and risks in these areas” • “I can now manage my stakeholder expectations. These are more realistic end dates.” • “Risk Management was always just a compliance exercise. Now I can use it for management decisions”
  13. 13. Future Focus Areas • Correlation between activities • Getting planners to understand and buy in to correlation • Taking QRA to investment committee • IWBS / Control Accounts • Wider implementation • QRA capacity increase • Converting project scales to corporate scales for reporting
  14. 14. And Finally … • Built up QRA capability from scratch • QRA is helping to raise the profile of project risk management • Building relationships of trust • Don’t be afraid of implementing QRA – it has been an exciting and rewarding journey so far
  15. 15. THANK YOU Contact Egan Naidoo +27 (0)79 509 9523 +27 (0)11 516 7187 naidooeg@gmail.com Any Questions?
  16. 16. This presentation was delivered at an APM event To find out more about upcoming events please visit our website www.apm.org.uk/events

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