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No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag

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"No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag" will minimize the traffic jam at Shahbag,
Design, Network Analysis, Investment criterion, Decision Tree, Social Cost Benefit Analysis, Risk Analysis

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No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag

  1. 1. Welcome to our Presentation We Think “No Signal, No Traffic Jam at No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  2. 2. Md. Ashraful Alam Saon ID. 104473 No Signal, No Traffic Jam at ShahbagNo Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  3. 3. The concern is the traffic jam No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  4. 4. Network of the Project Vehicle from Motsho Bhaban to Science lab Vehicle from Science lab to Motsho Bhaban Vehicle from Motsho Bhaban to Farmgate No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  5. 5. Network Analysis of the Project  Networks are essentially a technique to aid management in the planning and controlling of projects  Network diagram represents diagrammatically the tasks, or activities, that have to be carried out No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  6. 6. Activity Name of activity A Planning & Designing B Soil Test C Demolition D Pile Driving E Formworks for Bents & Abutments F Reforming Steel G Pouring Concrete H Making Concrete Deck I Abutments & Bents in place, Ready to set Beams J Setting the Concrete Deck K Asphalt Deck L Barrier Wall M Lamppost & Electricity Connection N Site Cleanup & Finishing No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  7. 7. Time Estimation  Optimistic  Most likely  Pessimistic Expected Time = (To+4Tm+Tp) /6 No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  8. 8. Name of Activity, Time Estimation and Expected Time Event- Event Activity Pre requisite Activity Estimation of Time Expected Time=(To+4Tm+Tp) /6 To Tm Tp 1-2 A 12 18 36 20 1-3 B 17 24 37 25 1-4 C 13 19 31 20 3-5 D A,B 82 112 190 120 4-5 E C 93 118 215 130 5-6 F D,E 68 87 124 90 5-7 G D,E 152 171 244 180 5-8 H D,E 135 152 217 160 7-8 I G 29 34 75 40 8-9 J F,H,I 48 56 88 60 9-10 K J 13 21 53 25 9-11 L J 23 26 53 30 9-12 M J 18 21 48 25 12-13 N K,L,M 18 19 26 20 No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  9. 9. A 20 B 25 C 20 D E 20 F H 11 G 90 160 9 180 K 25 NM 25 60 J L 30 120 I 40130 13 10 128 6 5 7 1 2 3 4 No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  10. 10. Path / Way Day Total A-D-F-J-K-N 20+120+90+60+25+20 325 A-D-F-J-M-N 20+120+90+60+25+20 325 A-D-F-J-L-N 20+120+90+60+30+20 330 A-D-H-J-K-N 20+120+160+60+25+20 405 A-D-H-J-M-N 20+120+160+60+25+20 405 A-D-H-J-L-N 20+120+160+60+30+20 410 A-D-G-I-J-K-N 20+120+180+40+60+25+20 465 A-D-G-I-J-M-N 20+120+180+40+60+25+20 465 A-D-G-I-J-L-N 20+120+180+40+60+30+20 470 B-D-F-J-K-N 25+20+90+60+25+20 240 B-D-F-J-M-N 25+20+90+60+25+20 240 B-D-F-J-L-N 25+20+90+60+30+20 245 B-D-H-J-K-N 25+20+160+60+25+20 310 B-D-H-J-M-N 25+20+160+60+25+20 310 B-D-H-J-L-N 25+20+160+60+30+20 315 B-D-G-I-J-K-N 25+20+180+40+60+25+20 370 B-D-G-I-J-M-N 25+20+180+40+60+25+20 370 B-D-G-I-J-L-N 25+20+180+40+60+30+20 375 C-E-F-J-K-N 20+130+90+60+25+20 405 C-E-F-J-M-N 20+130+90+60+25+20 405 C-E-F-J-L-N 20+130+90+60+30+20 410 C-E-H-J-K-N 20+130+160+60+25+20 415 C-E-H-J-M-N 20+130+160+60+25+20 415 C-E-H-J-L-N 20+130+160+60+30+20 420 C-E-G-I-J-K-N 20+130+180+40+60+25+20 475 C-E-G-I-J-M-N 20+130+180+40+60+25+20 475 No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  11. 11. No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  12. 12. No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  13. 13. Activity Total Float (LST-EST) Free Float (TF-Head Slack) Independent Float (FF-Tail Slack) A 10-0=10 10-10=0 0-0=0 B 5-0=5 5-5=0 0-0=0 C 0-0=0 0-0=0 0-0=0 D 30-25=5 5-0=5 5-5=0 E 20-20=0 0-0=0 0-0=0 F 280-150=130 130-130=0 0-0=0 G 150-150=0 0-0=0 0-0=0 H 210-150=60 60-0=60 60-0=60 I 330-330=0 0-0=0 0-0=0 J 370-370=0 0-0=0 0-0=0 K 435-430=5 5-5=0 0-0=0 L 430-430=0 0-0=0 0-0=0 M 435-430=5 5-0=5 5-0=5 N 460-460 0-0=0 0-0=0 No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  14. 14. The Probability of the Critical path being completed within 500 Days Variance= Variance for the Critical path (C-E-G-I-J-L-N) = 9+413.44+235.11+58.78+44.44+25+1.78=787.5 No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  15. 15. Mitan Majumder ID.104553 No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  16. 16. Objectives of Project The main concern of this project is the reduction of traffic jam at Shahbag, the most important place of Dhaka. The project includes the following mission:  To save the valuable time of economically important person like Engineer, Doctor, Teacher, Businessman.  To minimize the cost for resources like Petrol, Gas etc.  To reduce the road accident  To save the labor hours of driver & staff of buses  To ensure the smooth running of Ambulance  To save manpower like traffic police used at Shahbag. No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  17. 17. Project Based on PPP The government is interested in involving private sector in all sectors barring a few for national security reasons. Modern and reliable infrastructure is a must to uplift country’s economy from the current state to a higher growth trajectory Under the current framework, through different type of PPP initiatives a small number of projects have been implemented under the Annual Development Program (ADP) that is mainly private sector initiatives No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  18. 18. Our Agreement with Government  Govt. will provide us administrative help like activity with the different ministry  Our income from the project will be tax free  Government will fund for the road repairing  We will collect payment for using the bridge from the public bus for 12 years  BRTC & Government High officer will be payment free for using the bridge No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  19. 19. Amiyo Kumar Sana ID. 104579 No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  20. 20. Expenditure of the Project Planning & Designing 1.5 Materials Stone 82.55 Steel 117.25 Cement 135.25 Composites 85.75 Rent of Equipment Bulldozers 42.5 Excavator 27.5 Asphalt Mixers 55.75 Bridge Formworks 12.75 Crane 88.5 Labor Cost Skilled Labor 177.75 Unskilled Labor 225.35 Maintenance cost 38.75 Miscellaneous Cost 33.85 No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  21. 21. Yearly cost of project Equipment for Project  Bulldozers  Excavator  Asphalt Mixers  Bridge Formworks  Crane Material for Project  Stone  Cement  Steel  Composites Year Cost 0 year 275 Million 1st Year 715Million 2nd Year 125 Million No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  22. 22. Income of the Project  Ours cash inflow will come from different buses. We will charge for different amount for different buses. Bus having 40 sit or less will be charged as tk.200 & the bus having more than 40 sit will be charged tk. 250 per day. The private car and other vehicle will be charged for every pass over this bridge. We plan to collect the fee from the office of the bus weekly basis. There will be Toll Plaza at the bridge that may cause jam.  Our positive cash inflow will come from 3 rd year. here we estimate that our cash inflow will increase by 5% from year 4 to 10 based on the previous income and after 10 year it will increase by 3% . No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  23. 23. Income up to 12 years Year Previous Income Increase @5%; 3% Cash flow 1 0 2 109.95 3 172.018 4 172.018 8.6009 180.6189 5 180.6189 9.030945 189.6498 6 189.6498 9.482492 199.1323 7 199.1323 9.956617 209.089 8 209.089 10.45445 219.5434 9 219.5434 10.97717 230.5206 10 230.5206 11.52603 242.0466 11 242.0466 7.261398 249.308 12 249.308 7.47924 256.7872 No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  24. 24. Md. Shahinur Islam ID. 104583 No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  25. 25. Payback Period  The length of time required to recover the cost of an investment. The payback period of a given investment or project is an important determinant of whether to undertake the position or project, as longer payback periods are typically not desirable for investment positions.  Payback Period = Last year with negative NCF + (Absolute value of that year/ Total cash flow in the following year) No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  26. 26. Payback Period of Our Project Year Previous Income Increase Cash flow Cumulative Cash flow 0 -275 -375 1 -710 -1085 2 -15.05 -1100.05 3 172.018 -928.032 4 172.018 8.6009 180.6189 -747.4131 5 180.6189 9.030945 189.6498 -557.763255 6 189.6498 9.482492 199.1323 -358.6309178 7 199.1323 9.956617 209.089 -149.5419636 8 209.089 10.45445 219.5434 70.00143818 9 219.5434 10.97717 230.5206 300.5220101 10 230.5206 11.52603 242.0466 542.5686106 11 242.0466 7.261398 249.308 791.8766091 12 249.308 7.47924 256.7872 1048.663848 No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  27. 27. Payback Period = 7+ (149.5419636/ 219.5434) = 7.68 Years  The better investment is the one with the shorter payback period, as our project life time is 12 year and the payback period is 7.68 years it can be accepted. No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  28. 28. Discounted Payback Period  The discounted payback period is the amount of time that it takes to cover the cost of a project, by adding positive discounted cash flow coming from the profits of the project. The advantage of using the discounted payback period over the payback period is that it takes into account time value of money Discount Rate/ Cost of Capital: Our total investment will be 1125 million and we have two sources to collect the fund. But the cost of fund differs from one another so to calculate the discount rate/ cost of capital we use the formula for weighted average cost of capital Bank Loan Proposal for 20 years @ 11.75% 890.85 Million Owner Fund @15% 234.15 Million No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  29. 29. As there will be agreement with government that no Tax will be imposed in our income for this project so we do not adjust the cost of bank loan with Income Tax. The weight for bank loan = 890.85/ 1125 = 0.79 The weight for owner fund = 234.15/ 1125 = 0.21 Discount Rate = 0.79*0.1175 + 0.21*0.15 = 0.12 = 12% No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  30. 30. Year Previous Income Yearly Increase@5% Cash flow Factor@ 12% Discounted Cash Flow Cumulative. Cash flow 0 -275 1 -275 -275 1 -715 0.893 -638.495 -913.495 2 -15.05 0.797 -11.99485 -925.48985 3 172.018 0.712 122.476816 -803.013034 4 172.018 8.6009 180.6189 0.636 114.8736204 -688.1394136 5 180.6189 9.030945 189.6498 0.568 107.721112 -580.4183016 6 189.6498 9.482492 199.1323 0.507 100.960095 -479.4582067 7 199.1323 9.956617 209.089 0.452 94.50820726 -384.9499994 8 209.089 10.45445 219.5434 0.404 88.69553433 -296.2544651 9 219.5434 10.97717 230.5206 0.361 83.21792646 -213.0365386 10 230.5206 11.52603 242.0466 0.322 77.93900536 -135.0975332 11 242.0466 7.261398 249.308 0.288 71.80070357 -63.29682967 12 249.308 7.47924 256.7872 0.257 65.99432029 2.697490623 No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  31. 31. Discounted Payback Period = 11+ (63.29682967/ 65.99432029) = 11.95 Years It is so much risky to accept the project because it needs all most 12 year to recover the invested money that is ours project life time. But because of the social benefit we can take risk to accept the project. No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  32. 32. Md. Zahidul Islam ID. 104465 No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  33. 33. Net Present Value  The difference between the present value of cash inflows and the present value of cash outflows  A positive net present value indicates that the projected earnings generated by a project or investment (in present Taka) exceed the anticipated costs (also in present Taka). Generally, an investment with a positive NPV will be a profitable one and one with a negative NPV will result in a net loss. This concept is the basis for the Net Present Value Rule, which dictates that the only investments that should be made are those with positive NPV values  Accepted: NPV> Zero Rejected: NPV< Zero No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  34. 34. Year Previous Income Yearly Increase@ 5% Cash flow Factor@ 12% Present Value 0 -275 1 -275 1 -715 0.893 -638.495 2 -15.05 0.797 -11.99485 3 172.018 0.712 122.476816 4 172.018 8.6009 180.6189 0.636 114.8736204 5 180.6189 9.030945 189.6498 0.568 107.721112 6 189.6498 9.482492 199.1323 0.507 100.960095 7 199.1323 9.956617 209.089 0.452 94.50820726 8 209.089 10.45445 219.5434 0.404 88.69553433 9 219.5434 10.97717 230.5206 0.361 83.21792646 10 230.5206 11.52603 242.0466 0.322 77.93900536 11 242.0466 7.261398 249.308 0.288 71.80070357 12 249.308 7.47924 256.7872 0.257 65.99432029 Net Present Value 2.697490623 No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  35. 35. Internal Rate of Return  The internal rate of return on an investment or project is the "annualized effective compounded return rate" or rate of return that makes the net present value of all cash flows (both positive and negative) from a particular investment equal to zero. IRR formula is as follows IRR= A+ (B-A) A= Lower discount rate B = Higher discount rate C = NPV @ Lower discount rate D = Difference between NPV @ Lower discount rate and NPV @ Higher discount rate C D No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  36. 36. Year Previous Income Increase @5% Cash flow Factor@ 12% Present Value Factor @20% Present value 0 -275 1 -275 1 -275 1 -715 0.893 -638.495 0.833 -595.595 2 -15.05 0.797 -11.99485 0.694 -10.4447 3 172.018 0.712 122.476816 0.578 99.426404 4 172.018 8.6009 180.6189 0.636 114.8736204 0.482 87.0583098 5 180.6189 9.030945 189.6498 0.568 107.721112 0.402 76.23923769 6 189.6498 9.482492 199.1323 0.507 100.960095 0.335 66.70933298 7 199.1323 9.956617 209.089 0.452 94.50820726 0.279 58.3358182 8 209.089 10.45445 219.5434 0.404 88.69553433 0.232 50.93406922 9 219.5434 10.97717 230.5206 0.361 83.21792646 0.194 44.72099095 10 230.5206 11.52603 242.0466 0.322 77.93900536 0.161 38.96950268 11 242.0466 7.261398 249.308 0.288 71.80070357 0.135 33.6565798 12 249.308 7.47924 256.7872 0.257 65.99432029 0.112 28.76017071 Net Present Value 2.697490623 -296.229284 No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  37. 37. If the IRR is greater than the cost of capital, accept the projects. If the IRR is less than the cost of capital, reject the projects. As the IRR 12.07% is greater than cost of capital 12% we can accept the project No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  38. 38. Md. Ismail Hosen ID. 091099 No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  39. 39. Decision Tree  A decision tree is a decision support tool that uses a tree-like graph or model of decisions and their possible consequences, including chance event outcomes, resource costs, and utility. we are in problem that we have three alternatives ways:  Purchase the equipments  Rent equipments internally (from Country)  Rent equipments externally (From Aboard) No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  40. 40. The possible states of economy and the associated probability distribution are as follows State Probability Favorable 0.60 Unfavorable 0.40 The cost for equipments and each state of economy are as follows: Alternatives State of economy Favorable Unfavorable Purchase Equipments (A) 425 Million 515 Million Rent Internally (B) 215 Million 245 Million Rent from Aboard (C) 270 Million 310 Million No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  41. 41. Decision Tree No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  42. 42. Using the decision tree approach we determine the expected cost for each alternatives and we would take the decision from the alternatives by using the expected monetary value criterion.  EMA (A) = (425*0.6) + (515*0.4) =461  EMA (B) = (215*0.6) + (245*0.4) =227  EMA (C) = (270*0.6) + (310*0.4) =286 Thus based on the expected monetary value criterion Alternative B (Equipments rent from internal sources) is the best as the cost 227 million which is less than other alternatives. No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  43. 43. Meherajul Hasan Chy. ID. 104425 No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  44. 44. Risk analysis  Risk analysis is a technique used to identify and assess factors that may jeopardize the success of a project or achieving a goal.  Project risk analysis is the identification and quantification of the likelihood and impact of events that may damage the project  Risk analysis improves the accuracy of traditional scheduling, cost estimation, spreadsheet financial models, and systems engineering skills No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  45. 45. Expected Value  Expected value is one of the fundamental concepts in probability, in a sense more general than probability itself. The expected value of a real-valued random variable gives a measure of the center of the distribution of the variable. Expected Value of our Project Economic Condition Net Cash Benefit (Xi) Probability (Pi) Expected Value Strike & Man made Distress 110.613 0.06 6.63678 Normal 172.018 0.87 149.65566 Great Prosperity (Ramadan) 193.507 0.07 13.54549 Expected Value E(x) 169.83793 No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  46. 46. Standard Deviation  Standard Deviation is a measure of the dispersion of a set of data from its mean. The more spread apart the data, the higher the deviation. Standard deviation is calculated as the square root of variance. No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  47. 47. No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  48. 48. Coefficient of Variance  A statistical measure of the dispersion of data points in a data series around the mean.  In the investing world, the coefficient of variation allows you to determine how much volatility (risk) you are assuming in comparison to the amount of return you can expect from your investment. No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  49. 49. No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  50. 50. Shahnaz Akter ID. 104407 No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  51. 51. Social Cost Benefit Analysis of the project  Social cost benefit analysis (referred to as SCBA), also called economic analysis, and is a methodology developed for evaluating investment projects from the point of view of the society (or economy) as a whole. In SCBA the focus is on the social costs and benefits of the projects. These often tend to differ from the monetary cost and benefits of the project.  The SCBA takes into account the indirect costs and indirect benefits to the nation. While a nation bears the indirect costs, the people of the nation enjoy the indirect benefits. No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  52. 52. Shadow price  The shadow price takes care of the distortions in the market price by suitably adjusting the market price  Shadow price is a proxy value of good, often defined by what an individual must give up to gain an extra unit of good. Shadow price represent the economic value of a project. No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  53. 53. Rules associated with shadow price:  For tradable goods: shadow price is calculated on the border price or by exchange rate between countries.  For non-tradable goods: shadow price is calculated in two different ways. Consumer willingness to pay Additional production. No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  54. 54. Cost for Project  The project costing tk. 1125 million if the project is done with the help of a foreign company it will cost tk.1423 million.  30000 tons of cements produce indigenously are used in the project at a cost tk. 4500 per tons. However half of the cement will come from additional production which cost tk. 4200 per tons and half come from derivation from other consumer who is willing to pay tk. 6500 per tons.  Other construction materials (Stone, steel etc.) cost tk. 285.55 million. These materials come from additional production which cost of tk. 278.25million.  Labors that are unskilled will work for the project for which project committee decide to pay 225.35 totally; the shadow price of unskilled labor should be 217.85 Million.  Skilled labor cost tk. 177.75 million in total. These costs reflect what are willingly to pay for the skilled labor.  Operating maintenance cost will be tk. 3.23 million annually. Operating cost should be tk. 2.95 million from social point of view. No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  55. 55. Benefit from the Project  After the bridge is constructed 157 million people will pass the bridge annually. It will save at least 1 hour for the people. The cost per hour is tk. 115.  There will be a save in valuable resources like diesel, petrol etc. Every day it will save at least 350 liter resource and per liter cost of resource is tk. 70. No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag
  56. 56. Costs: Benefits: Costs types Market price Shadow price( Social Value) Project cost Cost of cement Wages (unskilled labor) Wages (skilled labor) Maintenance costs 1125 135.25 225.35 177.75 3.23 1423 160.5 217.85 177.75 2.95 Benefits Shadow price( Social Value) Savings in labor hour cost Savings in resources 18.055 8.82 No Signal, No Traffic Jam at Shahbag Amount in Million
  57. 57. Thank You

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