SynerducateEstimating Market Value Total Available Market Served Available Market Target Market
Total Available Market (TAM)All primary school schools globally and all parents of primary school children who are home schooled.Primary Schools world wideAccording to The World Bank in 2009 almost 702 million children were enrolled in primary school worldwide in 2009, this represent 87.8% of the all Primary School aged children in the world.In 2005 the average Primary school size in the UK was 224 pupils, so if we use this average size then the global population of Primary school children (702 million) would be divided between 3.13 million primary schools, so assuming we sold to all of these at a price of 50 GBP per school the total market value would be 156.5 million GBP.
Total Available Market (TAM)Total number of families worldwide who homeschool their childrenAccording to the latest data from the UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS), 61 million children of primary school age were out of school in 2010, in order to estimate how many families this refers to we can use theThe Total World Fertility Rate (TFR) which from 2005-2010 was 2.6 children per female. Therefore 61 million divided by 2.6 = 23.5 million families whose children do not attend school. Of these we can presume a large portion are in developing countries where the families cannot afford education and so we could estimate that only 5 percent of these are actually home schooled, so that would leave us just 1.175 million of families who homeschool. So assuming we sold to all of these families at a price of 10 GBP each the total market value would be 11.750 million GBP.This gives us a TOTAL combined Market value of 168.25 million GBP
Served Available Market (SAM)All English language Primary schools which are located in the UK as well as all parents living in the UK who have primary aged children and who homeschool their children, using English as the language for teaching their children. This market has been selected as these are the ones we hope to reach with our marketing channels.Total number of Primary Schools in UK England 16,884 Scotland 2,081 Wales 1,462 N. Ireland 854 TOTAL 21,245If we sold our product to all of these for a price of 50 GBP that would mean an estimated Served Market value of 1,062,250 GBP. (1.1 million GBP)
Served Available Market (SAM)Homeschool families in UKThe OECD estimates the Primary School population in UK in 2009 to be at 4,416,474 and according to Unesco in 2007, 2% of Primary aged children in the UK were out of school, so we can presume that these represent in part the home schooled children. So 2% of 4,416,474 is 88,329 children of which it is difficult to know how many are home schooled or how many families they belong to as there are no exact figures for this because it is not compulsory to register children who do not attend (and have never attended) school. In 2009 “Current estimates put the number of home schooled children in the UK between 50,000 and 80,000, but statistics obtained by Channel 4 from Local Education Authorities confirmed that in most areas the practice is on the rise.” , previous figures in 2007 had much lower figure “between 7,400 and 34,400 children were being taught at home - most of them in the secondary age group.” which would indicate that the numbers for Primary aged children in 2009 will be lower, so a more realistic estimation would be to use the smaller figures from 2007.To estimate our market we will take the median value of 20,900 (34,400-7400 = 2700, then divide that by 2= 13.500 so the median is 7,400+13,500 = 20,900) and we will divide this by the average number of births per female in the UK in 2010 which was 1.9 so this corresponds to 11,000 families.So assuming we sold to all of these families at a price of 10 GBP each the served market value would be 110,000 GBP.
Served Available Market (SAM)Source: http://stats.uis.unesco.org/unesco/TableViewer/document.aspx?ReportId=121&IF_Language=eng&BR_Country=8260&BR_Region=40500This gives us a combined Served Market value of 1,172,250 GBP (1.172 million GBP)
Target MarketWill start with schools and homeschool parents who already show an interest in ICT and coding as our first initial target customersPrimary SchoolsOne way of selecting schools with an interest in ICT are identifying those who have applied for the Naace ICT Mark (The ICT mark is an accreditation which celebrates putting technology at the heart of learning and is supported by The Department of Education and is awarded by Naace, the professional association for those who are concerned with advancing education through the appropriate use of information and communications technology), here there is a list of 1,272 accredited schools At 50 GBP per school this gives us a target market value of 63,600 GBP
Target MarketHome schooled children whose parents are interested in teaching ICTIf we take the figure of 11,000 families who homeschool in the UK (from our SAM) and use the results of a survey conducted by the BBC which asked pupils their opinion of Government plans to change ICT in schools we see that “Thirty-five percent disagreed with Mr Goves view of ICT as "dull", while 28% thought it was a good idea to make changes. The rest were undecided.” We can presume that the 28% who thought it was a good idea are those who are strongly interested in ICT and that this interest could be a result of parental influence or from the students themselves but in either case this would be the people we would be targeting. So 28% of 11,000 is 3,080 and at 10 GBP per family this gives us a target market value of 30,800 GBPWhich gives us a combined Target Market value of 94,400 GBP(Note: this is for the first phase of market penetration, so we would hope that these schools and families would act as our innovators and that later others from the SAM will be converted into customers too).