Newspaper extinction timeline

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Newspaper extinction timeline

  1. 1. Newspaper extinction timeline • Media strategy • Thought leadership content • Scenario planning Published under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.5 licence Created by Ross Dawson www.futureexploration.net — stripes indicate that newspapers will be extinct in metropolitan areas before regional areas When newspapers in their current form will become insignificant* USA 2017 UK, Iceland 2019 Canada, Norway 2020 Finland, Singapore, Greenland 2021 Australia, Hong Kong 2022 Denmark 2023 New Zealand, Spain, Czech, Taiwan 2024 Poland, Sweden, Switzerland 2025 South Korea, Metro Russia, Belgium 2026 Netherlands, Ireland, Metro Brazil, Italy 2027 Austria, Slovakia, Greece, Portugal, U.A.E. 2028 France, Israel, Malaysia, Croatia 2029 Germany, Estonia 2030 Japan, Metro China 2031 Hungary, Lithuania 2032 Latvia, Metro Mexico 2033 Serbia, Saudi Arabia 2034 Bulgaria, Chile, Uruguay 2035 Russia, Turkey 2036 Metro South Africa, Thailand 2037 Mongolia 2038 Argentina 2039 Rest of the world 2040+
  2. 2. GLOBAL NATIONAL Increased cost performance of mobile phones Increased cost performance of tablets/ e-readers Development of high performance digital paper Changes in newsprint and print production costs Uptake of digital news monetization mechanisms Trends in advertising spend and allocation Development of open platforms Technology uptake Fixed bandwidth availability and costs Mobile bandwidth availability and costs Smartphone and e-reader penetration Industry structure Financial position of leading newspapers Balance of advertising and print sales revenue Newspaper distribution structures Demographics Age structure, birth rates, and immigration Degree of urbanization Increase in literacy Consumer behaviors Media channel preferences Willingness to pay for news Relative interest in local and global news Government Degree of regulation Government financial support for media Censorship and obstruction Economic development Economic growth rate Wealth inequality Urban/ regional wealth disparity Future Exploration Network helps media organizations to engage with the future, build effective strategies, innovate, and achieve results. fen@futureexploration.net USA: (415) 315 9566 Australia: +61-2 9994 8011 Services include: • Media Strategy • Scenario Planning • Future of Media Workshops • Thought Leadership Content • Executive Briefings and Keynotes * Notes to the timeline This schedule for newspaper extinction shows best estimates given current trends. The timeline is intended to highlight the diversity of global media markets and stimulate useful strategic conversations. Newspapers in their current form becoming insignificant is not the same as the death of news-on-paper, which will continue in a variety of forms. Ways that newspaper publishers of today will succeed in the transition beyond “newspapers in their current form” include transitioning to other channels, providing personalized news-on-paper, and tapping niche markets. Newspaper extinction timeline: key factors

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