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Cambodia Agriculture in
Transition:
Opportunities and Risks
Stakeholders Consultation
February 12, 2014
Cambodiana Hotel, ...
1

Changes - Past

2

Driving forces - Past

3

Driving forces - Future
Cambodia
Agriculture
Rice Production (mt)

Yield Increase (2003-2012)

10,000,000

80%

9,000,000

70%

8,000,000

60%

7,000,000
6,000,000

50...
%
60

Nutritional Indicators (from CDHS)

50
40
30
20
10
0

Underweigth

Stunted (short)
2000

2005

2008

2010

Wasted (t...
CHANGES IN AGRICULTURE
OVER PAST 10 YEARS
A Story of Change
1

Land

2

Yields

3

Production

4

Profitability/ha

5

Return to labor
Cultivated land increased

 Active land market
 Higher food prices
 Investment in feeder roads
 Better access to finan...
Yields increased

1

2

3

 Wider adoption of improved technologies
 Expanded irrigation
 Access to modern inputs
 Mec...
1

2

3

Production increased

4

5
1

2

3

Farm Profitability per ha
has been Stagnant

4

5
1

2

3

4

Return to Agricultural Labor
has increased

5
Production Growth has been
Impressive
Production in 2012 as a Multiple of
Production in 2003
25

23

20

15

10

5

1.9

2.5

2.9

3

Wet Season Rice

Dry Seaso...
Impressive Production Growth
Driven in Large Part by Growth of

CULTIVATED LAND
Contribution of Land and Yield to Production Growth (2003-2012)
Rice

Wet Season Rice
Land
37%

Land
42%
Yield
58%

Dry Se...
Contribution to Rice Production in
Vietnam (2000-2012)
Land
3%

Yield
97%
Farms
Are becoming

BIGGER
Average cultivated areas (ha)
2008 to 2012
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2

1
0

Rice

Cassava

2008

2009

Maize

2010

2011

2012

Veget...
Reasons for the Increase in cultivated Land
Access to
Finance
15%

Better Infra
38%

RGC Policy
30%

Agricultural
Prices
1...
Large Farms become Larger
Medium Farms become Larger

Small Farms become Smaller
Average Cultivated Land (ha) by Farm Group
8
7
6
5
4

3
2
1

0

2008

2009

2010
Small

Medium

2011
Large

2012
Adoption of Modern Inputs has Increased
40

35

35

30

30

25

25
20
20
15
15
10

10

5

5

10 years ago
Seeds

5-10 year...
Access of farmers to a variety of
financial services has increased
70%
60%

70%

Commercial Banks

MFI

60%

50%

50%

40%

40%

30%

30%

20%

20%

10%

10%

0%

0%

> 6 years

Rice

3-5 y...
Access of Farmers to Extension Services Improving
100%
90%
80%
70%

60%
50%
40%
30%

20%
10%
0%
More than 10 years

5 - 10...
Farmer-to-farmer Communication the main
Source of Information
Source of Information about Inputs
Herbicides
Insecticides
F...
Farmers are not too convinced of the
Benefits of Farmer Organizations
Farmers Perceptions about Farmer Organizations

Very...
Use of Mechanization Services Increasing
40

Tractor
35
30

Power Tiller

Irrigation Pump

Reaper

Thresher

Combine

25
2...
Agricultural Labor Costs increasing
Labor Cost in Rice Production ($/day)
5
4
3
2
1
0

2005

2013
The wage gap with non-farm sector is declining.
Return to labor increasing fast.
Ag Wage, Off-farm Wage, Return to Ag Labo...
Returns to Ag Labor compare favorably with Ag Wages
and seem to increase with farm size
Return to Labor ($/day)
40
35
30
2...
Declining Labor Shares in Cost of
Production
70%
60%

59%
55%

50%
43%

40%
30%

53%

35%
32%
29%

20%

18%

10%

Cassava
...
The Cambodian Farmer becoming a Manager?
Labor and Service
Shares in Cost of Production 2013

45%

43%

40%
35%
30%

37%
3...
What happened to farm
profitability?
Profitability of Agriculture INCREASED … in NOMINAL Terms

Nominal Margins ($/ha)
1600
1400
1200

Average
Increase =
65%

...
Profitability of Agriculture STAGNANT in REAL Terms
Margins deflated by CPI ($/ha)
1000
900

Average
Increase =
2.2%

800
...
Growth of Agriculture

HIGH

Growth of Inputs

HIGH

Growth of Outputs

HIGH

Growth of Profitability/ha
Growth of Return ...
DRIVERS OF PAST GROWTH
Drivers of Past Growth
1. Policy

2. Investment
3. Incentives
Policy
• Relatively liberal
economic environment
• Trade integration with
the global economy,
with ASEAN and GMS
Investment
• Improved connectivity
to markets, technology,
and finance
• Private sector
investment and FDI
Incentives
• Higher food prices
originating from world
markets
• Increase in labor cost
originating from
migration of labo...
The Questions about Past Drivers
 Were

these drivers effective in achieving past growth?

YES
 Are

these drivers suita...
RISKS
Risks

1.Sustainability of expansion of cultivated land
2.Increasing farm size and farmland distribution
3.Increasing scar...
1

2

3

4

Land Expansion

5

6
If Current Cultivated Land Expansion continue, cassava would
be cultivated over almost 6 million ha!
Cultivated Land 2022 ...
Likely Scenario: Moderate Increase of Total Cultivated Land
and Diversification towards Upland Crops
Cultivated Land 2012
...
Diversification towards Upland Crops even more significant in
terms of Total Margins
Vegetables,
74 , 7%
Dry season
rice, ...
1

2

3

4

5

Farm Land Distribution

6
Total Margins in 2013 ($ mil)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%
Small

50%

60%

Medium

70%

80%

90%

100%

Large

80%

90%

100%
...
1

2

3

Labor

4

5

6
Labor employed in agriculture will decline
Labor in Crop Cultivation (million person days)

-

20

40

60

80

100

2022

...
Strong labor productivity growth has to occur for
return to ag labor to keep up with non-farm wages ($/day)
Non-farm wages...
1

2

3

4

Farm Profitability

5

6
Even small increases in unit margins imply
large increase in profitability
Total Margin ($ million)

-

200

400

600

800...
Modernization of Farmers Increases Profitability
Increase in Gross Margins (%)
55

y = 4.3x + 35.8

50

45

40

35

30
0

...
1

2

3

Linkages

4

5

6
Linkages among farmers (through farmer organizations)
and with agribusiness (through contract farming) can
increase profit...
1

2

3

Irrigation

4

5

6
Impacts of Irrigation Investment
Annual % change
in irrigated land

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

Average yield (t/ha)

3....
WHAT ABOUT THE COST OF IRRIGATION?
The Benefits of Irrigation depend on cost, O&M, yields,
…
IRR (%) and Cost of Irrigation ($/ha)

IRR (%) and Yield (ton/ha...
DRIVERS OF FUTURE
GROWTH
Limitations of Past Approaches
1. Excessive reliance upon expansion of land and other
inputs
2. Stagnant farm profitabilit...
New Growth Drivers are Required
1.Total Factor Productivity
2. Agribusiness Development
1

2

Total Factor Productivity Growth
How do we get:

Growth of Output > Growth in Inputs
 We
o
o
o
o

need

KNOWLEDGE AND SKILLS
INNOVATION
EFFECTIVENESS
EFFI...
Drivers of Agricultural Productivity across Countries
Agricultural Productivity Growth
R&D
Investment
• Total R&D
Investme...
Growth of Agricultural Output, TFP, and Inputs
(1961-2007)
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5

Northeast Asia

Southeast A...
Research

Innovation
Extension

Education
and Skills
1

2

Agribusiness Development
Agribusiness
Agriculture
Many micro and small agroenterprises poorly
organized operating informally
%Agribusiness Enterprises
Large
15%

Micro
22%
...
Many agroenterprises generating little
employment and value added
2011 Share of Turnover
by Types of Agribusiness

Crop Co...
Underdeveloped Agribusiness Sector

•

Value added

•

Off-farm employment in rural areas

•

Income of farmers

•

Food s...
Agribusiness Development as Shared Prosperity

•

Value added

•

Off-farm employment in rural areas

•

Income of farmers...
Agribusiness Development requires strong Value Chain
Linkages among Stakeholders

and Productive Partnerships to find Mutu...
Productive Partnerships for Mutual Benefit
 Smallholder

farmers: Better able to withstand the
challenges of the global e...
Through a combination of:
1. TFP Growth
2. Improved Value Chain Linkages
3. Productive Partnerships
Farmers and enterprise...
CONCLUSIONS
KEY MESSAGE

1

Past drivers of growth will not be
sufficient for a sustained and
sustainable growth in the future.
KEY MESSAGE

2

Sustained and sustainable future growth will
require:
1. Total factor productivity growth
2. Agribusiness ...
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The Results of the Cambodia Agriculture in Transition: Opportunities and Risks Study

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The World Bank under request by Supreme National Economic Council (SNEC) and Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries (MAFF) commissioned a diagnostics study to answer questions about possible directions of transformation of Cambodia agriculture over the coming decades, and its implication on farm incomes. The proposed diagnostics combines the analysis of the change of farming systems in Cambodia over the past decade with the review of agricultural development experiences in the region to develop agriculture development scenarios until 2030. Agrifood Consulting International Inc (ACI) was selected to implement the Study.

In order to address these questions, the Study Team combined the analysis of existing secondary data with primary data from a survey conducted in the same villages where a similar investigation was conducted ten years ago. The Team then built and analyzed different scenarios of future growth.

The key two messages of the study are:
a. Past drivers of growth will not be suitable for sustained growth in the future
b. Two new drivers are required including
(i) total factor productivity growth (TFP);
(ii) agribusiness development.

Published in: Education
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The Results of the Cambodia Agriculture in Transition: Opportunities and Risks Study

  1. 1. Cambodia Agriculture in Transition: Opportunities and Risks Stakeholders Consultation February 12, 2014 Cambodiana Hotel, Phnom Penh
  2. 2. 1 Changes - Past 2 Driving forces - Past 3 Driving forces - Future
  3. 3. Cambodia Agriculture
  4. 4. Rice Production (mt) Yield Increase (2003-2012) 10,000,000 80% 9,000,000 70% 8,000,000 60% 7,000,000 6,000,000 50% 5,000,000 40% 4,000,000 30% 3,000,000 20% 2,000,000 10% 1,000,000 0% - 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Maize 2012 Rice Exports (mt) Rice Sugarcane Cassava Poverty Rate in Cambodia 400,000 50% 350,000 45% 40% 300,000 35% 250,000 30% 200,000 25% 150,000 20% 15% 100,000 10% 50,000 5% 0 0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1994 1997 2000 2004 2007 2010
  5. 5. % 60 Nutritional Indicators (from CDHS) 50 40 30 20 10 0 Underweigth Stunted (short) 2000 2005 2008 2010 Wasted (thin)
  6. 6. CHANGES IN AGRICULTURE OVER PAST 10 YEARS
  7. 7. A Story of Change 1 Land 2 Yields 3 Production 4 Profitability/ha 5 Return to labor
  8. 8. Cultivated land increased  Active land market  Higher food prices  Investment in feeder roads  Better access to finance 1 2 3 4 5
  9. 9. Yields increased 1 2 3  Wider adoption of improved technologies  Expanded irrigation  Access to modern inputs  Mechanized services 4 5
  10. 10. 1 2 3 Production increased 4 5
  11. 11. 1 2 3 Farm Profitability per ha has been Stagnant 4 5
  12. 12. 1 2 3 4 Return to Agricultural Labor has increased 5
  13. 13. Production Growth has been Impressive
  14. 14. Production in 2012 as a Multiple of Production in 2003 25 23 20 15 10 5 1.9 2.5 2.9 3 Wet Season Rice Dry Season Rice Vegetables Maize 0 Cassava
  15. 15. Impressive Production Growth Driven in Large Part by Growth of CULTIVATED LAND
  16. 16. Contribution of Land and Yield to Production Growth (2003-2012) Rice Wet Season Rice Land 37% Land 42% Yield 58% Dry Season Rice Yield 34% Yield 63% Maize Land 66% Vegetables Cassava Yield 16% Yield 24% Land 76% Land 37% Land 84% Yield 63%
  17. 17. Contribution to Rice Production in Vietnam (2000-2012) Land 3% Yield 97%
  18. 18. Farms Are becoming BIGGER
  19. 19. Average cultivated areas (ha) 2008 to 2012 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Rice Cassava 2008 2009 Maize 2010 2011 2012 Vegetables
  20. 20. Reasons for the Increase in cultivated Land Access to Finance 15% Better Infra 38% RGC Policy 30% Agricultural Prices 17%
  21. 21. Large Farms become Larger Medium Farms become Larger Small Farms become Smaller
  22. 22. Average Cultivated Land (ha) by Farm Group 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2008 2009 2010 Small Medium 2011 Large 2012
  23. 23. Adoption of Modern Inputs has Increased 40 35 35 30 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 10 years ago Seeds 5-10 years 3-5 years Insecticides 1-2 years Herbicides 10 years ago 5-10 years Urea 3-5 years DAP 1-2 years
  24. 24. Access of farmers to a variety of financial services has increased
  25. 25. 70% 60% 70% Commercial Banks MFI 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% > 6 years Rice 3-5 years Cassava Maize 1-2 years Vegetables 70% 60% > 6 years Community Savings and Loans 3-5 years Rice 70% 60% 50% Money Lenders 30% 20% Vegetables 40% 30% Maize 50% 40% Cassava 1-2 years 20% 10% 10% 0% > 6 years Rice 3-5 years Cassava Maize 1-2 years Vegetables 0% > 6 years Rice 3-5 years Cassava Maize 1-2 years Vegetables
  26. 26. Access of Farmers to Extension Services Improving 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% More than 10 years 5 - 10 years RGC 3-5 years NGO Private 1-2 years
  27. 27. Farmer-to-farmer Communication the main Source of Information Source of Information about Inputs Herbicides Insecticides Fertilizer DAP Fetilizer Urea Manure - Compost Improved Seeds 0% 10% RGC 20% Private 30% NGO 40% Farmers 50% 60% Firms Self 70% Seller 80% 90% 100%
  28. 28. Farmers are not too convinced of the Benefits of Farmer Organizations Farmers Perceptions about Farmer Organizations Very helpful 48% Very little benefits 28% Can do better 24%
  29. 29. Use of Mechanization Services Increasing 40 Tractor 35 30 Power Tiller Irrigation Pump Reaper Thresher Combine 25 20 15 10 5 0 10 years ago 5-10 years 3-5 years 1-2 years
  30. 30. Agricultural Labor Costs increasing Labor Cost in Rice Production ($/day) 5 4 3 2 1 0 2005 2013
  31. 31. The wage gap with non-farm sector is declining. Return to labor increasing fast. Ag Wage, Off-farm Wage, Return to Ag Labor ($/day) 7.00 6.00 4.00 Growth = 240% Growth = 60% 5.00 Growth = 265% 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 Ag wage Non-farm wage 2005 2013 Return to ag labor
  32. 32. Returns to Ag Labor compare favorably with Ag Wages and seem to increase with farm size Return to Labor ($/day) 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Cassava Maize Small Wet Season Rice Medium Large Dry Season Rice Overall Vegetables
  33. 33. Declining Labor Shares in Cost of Production 70% 60% 59% 55% 50% 43% 40% 30% 53% 35% 32% 29% 20% 18% 10% Cassava Maize Wet season rice 2005 2013 Dry season rice
  34. 34. The Cambodian Farmer becoming a Manager? Labor and Service Shares in Cost of Production 2013 45% 43% 40% 35% 30% 37% 34% 32% 29% 30% 30% 25% 20% 18% 15% 10% Cassava Maize Labor % Wet season rice Service % Dry season rice
  35. 35. What happened to farm profitability?
  36. 36. Profitability of Agriculture INCREASED … in NOMINAL Terms Nominal Margins ($/ha) 1600 1400 1200 Average Increase = 65% 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Wet season rice Dry season rice Cassava 2005 Maize 2013 vegetables Total
  37. 37. Profitability of Agriculture STAGNANT in REAL Terms Margins deflated by CPI ($/ha) 1000 900 Average Increase = 2.2% 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Wet season rice Dry season rice Cassava 2005 Maize 2013 vegetables Total
  38. 38. Growth of Agriculture HIGH Growth of Inputs HIGH Growth of Outputs HIGH Growth of Profitability/ha Growth of Return to Ag Labor ~ ZERO HIGH
  39. 39. DRIVERS OF PAST GROWTH
  40. 40. Drivers of Past Growth 1. Policy 2. Investment 3. Incentives
  41. 41. Policy • Relatively liberal economic environment • Trade integration with the global economy, with ASEAN and GMS
  42. 42. Investment • Improved connectivity to markets, technology, and finance • Private sector investment and FDI
  43. 43. Incentives • Higher food prices originating from world markets • Increase in labor cost originating from migration of labor
  44. 44. The Questions about Past Drivers  Were these drivers effective in achieving past growth? YES  Are these drivers suitable to sustain growth in the future? NO
  45. 45. RISKS
  46. 46. Risks 1.Sustainability of expansion of cultivated land 2.Increasing farm size and farmland distribution 3.Increasing scarcity and cost of agricultural labor 4.Stagnant farm profitability 5.Low value added and weak linkages between farmers and agroenterprises 6.High cost of irrigated water
  47. 47. 1 2 3 4 Land Expansion 5 6
  48. 48. If Current Cultivated Land Expansion continue, cassava would be cultivated over almost 6 million ha! Cultivated Land 2022 - Scenario A Dry season rice, 953,020 , 9% Wet season rice, 3,221,498 , 30% Maize, 545,559 , 5% Vegetables, 114,627 , 1% Cassava, 5,901,177 , 55%
  49. 49. Likely Scenario: Moderate Increase of Total Cultivated Land and Diversification towards Upland Crops Cultivated Land 2012 Dry season rice, 495,465 , 14% Vegetables, 54,155 , 2% Cultivated Land 2022 - Scenario B Cassava, 337,800 , 9% Dry season rice, 619,140 , 13% Vegetables, 69,972 , 2% Cassava, 962,482 , 21% Maize, 215,442 , 6% Wet season rice, 2,484,832 , 69% Wet season rice, 2,711,504 , 58% Rice Cultivated Area: from 83% to 71% Maize, 296,512 , 6%
  50. 50. Diversification towards Upland Crops even more significant in terms of Total Margins Vegetables, 74 , 7% Dry season rice, 146 , 14% Total Margins ($ million) in 2022 Scenario B Total Margins ($ million) in 2012 Cassava, 171 , 16% Vegetables, 95, 6% Cassava, 487, 32% Dry season rice, 183, 12% Maize, 65 , 6% Wet season rice, 609 , 57% Wet season rice, 664, 44% Maize, 90, 6% Rice as % of Total Margins: from 71% to 54%. Upland crops becoming as economically important as rice.
  51. 51. 1 2 3 4 5 Farm Land Distribution 6
  52. 52. Total Margins in 2013 ($ mil) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Small 50% 60% Medium 70% 80% 90% 100% Large 80% 90% 100% Total Margins in 2022 ($ mil) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Small 50% 60% Medium Large 70%
  53. 53. 1 2 3 Labor 4 5 6
  54. 54. Labor employed in agriculture will decline Labor in Crop Cultivation (million person days) - 20 40 60 80 100 2022 2013 120 140 160 180
  55. 55. Strong labor productivity growth has to occur for return to ag labor to keep up with non-farm wages ($/day) Non-farm wages and Return to Ag Labor ($/day) 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2013 2022 Non-farm wage Return to ag labor
  56. 56. 1 2 3 4 Farm Profitability 5 6
  57. 57. Even small increases in unit margins imply large increase in profitability Total Margin ($ million) - 200 400 600 800 2022 - Profitability increase 2% 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 2022 - NO CHANGE in profitability 1,800 2013 2,000
  58. 58. Modernization of Farmers Increases Profitability Increase in Gross Margins (%) 55 y = 4.3x + 35.8 50 45 40 35 30 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 Annual Increase in Percentage of Modern Farms (%) 4 4.5
  59. 59. 1 2 3 Linkages 4 5 6
  60. 60. Linkages among farmers (through farmer organizations) and with agribusiness (through contract farming) can increase profitability substantially Total Margins ($ million) - 200 400 600 Output price 10% higher 800 1,000 1,200 Input Price 10% lower 1,400 1,600 Baseline
  61. 61. 1 2 3 Irrigation 4 5 6
  62. 62. Impacts of Irrigation Investment Annual % change in irrigated land 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% Average yield (t/ha) 3.118 3.335 3.536 3.721 3.892 Total production (million tons) 9,291 10,806 12,462 14,270 16,244 Total Margins ($ million) 756.1 846.0 944.3 1,051.6 1,168.7 Return to labor ($/day) 6.4 7.1 7.8 8.5 9.3
  63. 63. WHAT ABOUT THE COST OF IRRIGATION?
  64. 64. The Benefits of Irrigation depend on cost, O&M, yields, … IRR (%) and Cost of Irrigation ($/ha) IRR (%) and Yield (ton/ha) 40% 16% 35% 14% 30% 12% 25% 10% 20% 8% 15% 6% 10% 4% 5% y = 0.0155x2 - 0.1765x + 0.4985 y = 0.036x + 0.0065 2% 0% 0% 1400 2000 3000 4000 4.349 4.566 4.784 5.001
  65. 65. DRIVERS OF FUTURE GROWTH
  66. 66. Limitations of Past Approaches 1. Excessive reliance upon expansion of land and other inputs 2. Stagnant farm profitability 3. Ag labor productivity not keeping pace with off-farm wage 4. Weak linkages between farmers and agribusiness 5. More emphasis on irrigation investment and less on water use management
  67. 67. New Growth Drivers are Required 1.Total Factor Productivity 2. Agribusiness Development
  68. 68. 1 2 Total Factor Productivity Growth
  69. 69. How do we get: Growth of Output > Growth in Inputs  We o o o o need KNOWLEDGE AND SKILLS INNOVATION EFFECTIVENESS EFFICIENCY  We need Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth
  70. 70. Drivers of Agricultural Productivity across Countries Agricultural Productivity Growth R&D Investment • Total R&D Investment • Public vs private investment • International spillover Capital Deepening • Embodied technology in new investments and intermediate inputs • Country specific characteristics Resource Reallocation • Industry structural changes • Deregulation and industrial reforms • Increased average farm size • Resource reallocation
  71. 71. Growth of Agricultural Output, TFP, and Inputs (1961-2007) 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 Northeast Asia Southeast Asia Output Growth TFP Growth South Asia Growth of Input High Income
  72. 72. Research Innovation Extension Education and Skills
  73. 73. 1 2 Agribusiness Development
  74. 74. Agribusiness Agriculture
  75. 75. Many micro and small agroenterprises poorly organized operating informally %Agribusiness Enterprises Large 15% Micro 22% Medium 21% Small 42%
  76. 76. Many agroenterprises generating little employment and value added 2011 Share of Turnover by Types of Agribusiness Crop Collectors 45% Rice Sellers 5% Processor 35% Input Suppliers 9% Machinery Sellers 6%
  77. 77. Underdeveloped Agribusiness Sector • Value added • Off-farm employment in rural areas • Income of farmers • Food safety for consumers
  78. 78. Agribusiness Development as Shared Prosperity • Value added • Off-farm employment in rural areas • Income of farmers • Food safety for consumers
  79. 79. Agribusiness Development requires strong Value Chain Linkages among Stakeholders and Productive Partnerships to find Mutually Beneficial Solutions
  80. 80. Productive Partnerships for Mutual Benefit  Smallholder farmers: Better able to withstand the challenges of the global economy and more demanding consumers by linking with each other (eg cooperatives) or with agroenterprises (eg contract farming)  Agroenterprises: Better able to assure supplies of consistent commodities to expand trade and processing.  Rural Labor: Better able to find productive off-farm employment opportunities in the rural economy.
  81. 81. Through a combination of: 1. TFP Growth 2. Improved Value Chain Linkages 3. Productive Partnerships Farmers and enterprises can achieve competitiveness
  82. 82. CONCLUSIONS
  83. 83. KEY MESSAGE 1 Past drivers of growth will not be sufficient for a sustained and sustainable growth in the future.
  84. 84. KEY MESSAGE 2 Sustained and sustainable future growth will require: 1. Total factor productivity growth 2. Agribusiness Development

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