Where and when?- Texts thataddress drivers• Decision 2/CP.13, para. 3.• Decision 4/CP.15, para. 1(a).• Decision 1/CP.16, p...
Recurrent themes in guidanceand submissions (tentative)• Identify, identify, Identify….• Direct, Indirect (Underlying)• Me...
WHAT IS KNOWN:What drivers? Current and future?Geist and Lambin ( 2002)
Population and Deforestation• In about 70% of the casesdeforestation is directlyrelated to populationdensity (log transfor...
On Agriculture as a driver•Intensification ofagriculture is a necessarybut not sufficientcondition for forestprotection(AS...
Agricultural intensification hypothesisMore intensive agriculture at forestmargins can save forest at equal totalagricultu...
How true is Borlaug? -GlobalRudel et al., 2010
How true is Borlaug? -Global II• Only between 1980 – 85 (sustained declinein prices & increased yield in 70s) we seeeviden...
Sub- Saharan Africa Asia
Sparing vs SharingSegregate vs Integrate• Sparing/segregate • Sharing/integratemultifunctionalityhypothesisThereforeLandsc...
National Vs International•Most countries have reduceddeforestation by displacing landuse•Emissions Embedded in Trade-EET?•...
How true is Borlaug -Global IV?• Some six countries have succeeded in increasing both Agricproduction area and Forest area...
SOME KEY QUESTIONS?• How about the links between drivers and REL?• What linkages between drivers and the relative /cummula...
THANK YOU
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation from Montreal to Canada
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Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation from Montreal to Canada

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Some six countries have succeeded in increasing both Agric production area and Forest area (China, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Vietnam). But not from intensification only but through a combination of policies- (Lambin and Mefroidt, 2011- REDD ALERT Project). Most have done through displacement of Land use to other countries ( Mefroidt et al. 2010 and ASB PB 17)

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Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation from Montreal to Canada

  1. 1. Where and when?- Texts thataddress drivers• Decision 2/CP.13, para. 3.• Decision 4/CP.15, para. 1(a).• Decision 1/CP.16, para. 68.• Decision 1/CP.16, Appendix II, para. 1(a).• Decision 1/CP.16, Appendix II, para. 1(a).• Decision 1/CP.16, Appendix II.• Draft conclusions proposed by the Chair(FCCC/SBSTA/2011/L.14), paras. 1, 4.
  2. 2. Recurrent themes in guidanceand submissions (tentative)• Identify, identify, Identify….• Direct, Indirect (Underlying)• Measure impact on emissions reductions(MRV)• National vs International……• Agriculture vs Non agriculture drivers• Agricultural drivers of deforestation• Methodological Issues: Participatoryanalysis, links to MRV, (FAO submission)
  3. 3. WHAT IS KNOWN:What drivers? Current and future?Geist and Lambin ( 2002)
  4. 4. Population and Deforestation• In about 70% of the casesdeforestation is directlyrelated to populationdensity (log transformed).• Yet, we have not had apopulation discussion aspart of the deforestationdiscussion?• Is it necessary and possibleto handle?
  5. 5. On Agriculture as a driver•Intensification ofagriculture is a necessarybut not sufficientcondition for forestprotection(ASB-Indonesia, 1995; ASB- Brazil, 2001)
  6. 6. Agricultural intensification hypothesisMore intensive agriculture at forestmargins can save forest at equal totalagricultural productionOr… speed upforest conversionto profitableagricultureThis maybe true in‘closed’economiesThis is truein ‘open’economiesASB hypothesis in 1992 ASB findings in 1994Remote forest edge communities & Planet earth are closedsystems, in between we have ‘open’ systems…
  7. 7. How true is Borlaug? -GlobalRudel et al., 2010
  8. 8. How true is Borlaug? -Global II• Only between 1980 – 85 (sustained declinein prices & increased yield in 70s) we seeevidence of intensification leading toreduced yields• Two pathways:• i. Increased Yields + Inelastic demand =lower prices= POSSIBLE DROP IN AREAS• ii. Increased yields + elastic demand =INCREASE IN AREAS CULTIVATED• (Rudel et al., 2009)
  9. 9. Sub- Saharan Africa Asia
  10. 10. Sparing vs SharingSegregate vs Integrate• Sparing/segregate • Sharing/integratemultifunctionalityhypothesisThereforeLandscape Approaches/
  11. 11. National Vs International•Most countries have reduceddeforestation by displacing landuse•Emissions Embedded in Trade-EET?•Land Grabbing in Developingcountries?•Therefore International Leakage?
  12. 12. How true is Borlaug -Global IV?• Some six countries have succeeded in increasing both Agricproduction area and Forest area (China, Costa Rica, El Salvador,Vietnam);• But not from intensification only but through a combination ofpolicies- (Lambin and Mefroidt, 2011- REDD ALERT Project);• Most have done through displacement of Land use to othercountries ( Mefroidt et al. 2010 and ASB PB 17)Lambin and Mefroidt, 2011
  13. 13. SOME KEY QUESTIONS?• How about the links between drivers and REL?• What linkages between drivers and the relative /cummulative impact?• How about approaches that enable handling dynamicand diverse drivers in a systematic way with specificlevers at specific leverage points?• What leverage does policy have on drivers in differentcontexts? Can these be measured and the trajectoriesmapped?
  14. 14. THANK YOU

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