Drivers, forest transitions and setting baselines at sub-national level
Drivers of land use changes and opportunities to reduc emissions in indonesia
1. Drivers of Land use changes across
Indonesia and opportunities to reduce
pp
emissions (In progress)
Jusupta Tarigan, Andree Ekadinata, Atiek Widayati
4. Indonesia
‐ Land area 1,919,440 km2 with population
d i 123 76/k 2 . More than 70% of the land is
density 123.76/km M h 70% f h l d i
forest area by law.
‐ Regarded as the country with the third highest
emissions (and the number 1 for land‐use based
(
emissions, with per capita emissions some 30%
above those in the EU)
5. Indonesia Commitment on Climate
Change Mitigation
h ii i
COPENHAGEN 2009
LETTER OF INTENT INDONESIA‐
Indonesia committed
NORWAY 2010
to
to 26% emission
emission
A two year suspension on all new
reduction unilaterally plus additio
concessions for conversion of peat
nal 15% through
and natural forest
international support by 2020
while retaining 7 % of economic
Growth.
6. Implications of the commitment at national
and sub national
d b i l
• How to quantify and monitored emission?
q y
• How to design emission reduction plan?
• p
Should all province treated in the same way?y
• How to ensure that emission reduction will not halt
economic development?
p
• What will be the benefits for local people?
g p
• How will it affect large scale economic plan that
already decided?
7. Landcover mapping
• The land cover maps that cover at least three
The land cover maps that cover at least three
time period considered to be significant in
REDD discussion: 1990, 2000, and 2005
• Legend categories should be sufficiently
details in reflecting the variations of carbon
stock while generic enough to represent
LULUCF at national level
• Should reach acceptable level of accuracy
for the most recent maps
17. Green house gas emission from land
use/cover change
/ h
1990‐2000 2000‐2005
Annual emissions (t C/(ha y)) 3.378 3.390
Annual sequestrations (t C/(ha y)) 0.797 0.697
Net annual emissions (t C/(ha y)) 2.581
2 581 2.693
2 693
Total Annual emissions (Gt C/(y)) 0.626 0.628
Total Annual sequestrations (Gt C/(y)) 0.148 0.129
Total Net annual emissions (Gt C/(y)) 0.478 0.499
18. Where the emission came from?
Where the emission came from?
75 % of GHG emission
from land use change
were produced by only
ere prod ced b onl
10 out of 33 province in
Indonesia
21. Our main assumption
Our main assumption
1. It s important to understand sub‐
1 It’s important to understand sub‐
national heterogeneity in developing
emission reduction plan
i i d ti l
2. It is important to recognize region with
similar characteristics in term of forest
cover dynamics, threat , and
cover dynamics, threat , and
development pathways
25. Land use transition stage in Indonesia
Land use transition stage in Indonesia
FOREST_CORE Papua
FOREST_FRONTIER_1 (forest core)
FOREST_FRONTIER_3 Gorontalo
FOREST_MOSAICS_1
FOREST MOSAICS 1
(forest frontier 1)
FOREST_MOSAICS_2
Jambi
(forest frontier 2)
South Kalimantan
(forest mosaic 1)
Pasuruan
(forest mosaic 2)
26. Drivers of LUC identified in the workshops
PROVINCE/DISTRICT
Papua Gorontalo Kal Sel
Kal‐Sel Jambi Pasuruan
CHANGE
National and Population Increasing of Provincial Market
Provincial Policy growth land development demand on
Market demand Increasing of requirement plan timber
LAND‐USE C
on forest product land requirement Food security Increasing production
and palm oil Provincial Province gross regional Increasing
Increasing gross regulation on spatial planning revenue gross regional
regional revenue securing corn Market Increasing of revenue
Provincial Mass
DRIVERS OF L
price produced demand on land
development by local farmers forest product requirement economic
program Increasing and palm oil Mass distribution
Mass economic gross regional Increasing economic
distribution revenue gross regional distribution
Province spatial Province spatial revenue National
planning planning investment
IPKMA permit policy
27. Dominant land use changes in five sites Shrub to
Timber
Forest to Estate Plantation
(oil palm) (HTR)
Forest to Timber Forest to Estate Shrub to
Shrub to
Plantation (oil palm) Agroforestry
Forest to Timber Magrove
Forest to Plantation to Fishpond
k)
Mining
Mi i
orest Cover (C-Stock
Concession
Forest to
Forest to
Cropland
Fo
Papua Gorontalo Kal‐Sel
Kal Sel Jambi Pasuruan
Time
28. Participatory approach in discussing low emission
development planning
development planning
Objectives:
Translating local development plan to the
configuration of land use
Analyzing the impact of planning on the
emission level
Planning t
l towards low emissions
d l
development
29. REDD Quadrant
REDD Quadrant
Q2 Q1
emissio
REDD REDD Negotiable
scenario
n
Q3 Q4
Non feasible for Developments
Developments
REDD scenario
Increasing economic value
35. Thank you
Thank you
More detail results, data and information:
More detail results data and information:
http://www.worldagroforestry.org/sea
/projects/allreddi/