Drivers of Land use changes across
Indonesia and opportunities to reduce
pp
emissions (In progress)
Jusupta Tarigan, Andree Ekadinata, Atiek Widayati

Q
Quantification of land use change and
g
GHG emissions at the national level

Indonesia
‐ Land area 1,919,440 km2 with population
d i 123 76/k 2 . More than 70% of the land is
density 123.76/km M h 70% f h l d i
forest area by law.
‐ Regarded as the country with the third highest
emissions (and the number 1 for land‐use based
(
emissions, with per capita emissions some 30%
above those in the EU)

Indonesia Commitment on Climate
Change Mitigation
h ii i
COPENHAGEN 2009
LETTER OF INTENT INDONESIA‐
Indonesia committed
NORWAY 2010
to
to 26% emission
emission
A two year suspension on all new
reduction unilaterally plus additio
concessions for conversion of peat
nal 15% through
and natural forest
international support by 2020
while retaining 7 % of economic
Growth.

Implications of the commitment at national
and sub national
d b i l
• How to quantify and monitored emission?
q y
• How to design emission reduction plan?
• p
Should all province treated in the same way?y
• How to ensure that emission reduction will not halt
economic development?
p
• What will be the benefits for local people?
g p
• How will it affect large scale economic plan that
already decided?

Landcover mapping
• The land cover maps that cover at least three
The land cover maps that cover at least three
time period considered to be significant in
REDD discussion: 1990, 2000, and 2005
• Legend categories should be sufficiently
details in reflecting the variations of carbon
stock while generic enough to represent
LULUCF at national level
• Should reach acceptable level of accuracy
for the most recent maps

Overall figure of Land cover change 1990‐2005
Overall figure of Land cover change 1990
Overall figure of Land cover change 1990‐

Typical carbon stock of all land use
systems in Indonesia at national level
i d i i ll l

Above ground carbon stock map of
Indonesia 1990
d i

Above ground carbon stock map of
Indonesia 2000
d i

Above ground carbon stock map of
Indonesia 2005
d i

Change of above ground carbon stock in
Indonesia 1990‐2000‐2005
I d i 1990 2000 2005
1990 2000
1990‐2000 2000 2005
2000‐2005 1990 2005
1990‐2005

Green house gas emission from land
use/cover change
/ h
1990‐2000 2000‐2005
Annual emissions (t C/(ha y)) 3.378 3.390
Annual sequestrations (t C/(ha y)) 0.797 0.697
Net annual emissions (t C/(ha y)) 2.581
2 581 2.693
2 693
Total Annual emissions (Gt C/(y)) 0.626 0.628
Total Annual sequestrations (Gt C/(y)) 0.148 0.129
Total Net annual emissions (Gt C/(y)) 0.478 0.499

Where the emission came from?
Where the emission came from?
75 % of GHG emission
from land use change
were produced by only
ere prod ced b onl
10 out of 33 province in
Indonesia

What has caused the emission?
What has caused the emission?

Understanding the drivers of land use
Understanding the drivers of land use
change and strategies based on local
k h ld l i
stakeholders consultation

Our main assumption
Our main assumption
1. It s important to understand sub‐
1 It’s important to understand sub‐
national heterogeneity in developing
emission reduction plan
i i d ti l
2. It is important to recognize region with
similar characteristics in term of forest
cover dynamics, threat , and
cover dynamics, threat , and
development pathways

Methods
Focus Group Discussion
Objectives
j
1. identify dominant trajectories of land use changes
2. identify the drivers of land use changes
y g
3. identify and rank the emitter land use change
4. combine the emission level assessment with
economic value of activity
economic value of activity
5. apply the above assessment in the REDD feasibility
quadrant

Stakeholders consultation on the outputs
Stakeholders consultation on the outputs

ALLREDDI Pilot area
ALLREDDI Pilot area
DRAFT

Land use transition stage in Indonesia
Land use transition stage in Indonesia
FOREST_CORE Papua
FOREST_FRONTIER_1 (forest core)
FOREST_FRONTIER_3 Gorontalo
FOREST_MOSAICS_1
FOREST MOSAICS 1
(forest frontier 1)
FOREST_MOSAICS_2
Jambi
(forest frontier 2)
South Kalimantan
(forest mosaic 1)
Pasuruan
(forest mosaic 2)

Drivers of LUC identified in the workshops
PROVINCE/DISTRICT
Papua Gorontalo Kal Sel
Kal‐Sel Jambi Pasuruan
CHANGE
 National and  Population  Increasing of  Provincial  Market
Provincial Policy growth land development demand on
 Market demand  Increasing of requirement plan timber
LAND‐USE C
on forest product land requirement  Food security Increasing production
and palm oil  Provincial  Province gross regional  Increasing
 Increasing gross regulation on spatial planning revenue gross regional
regional revenue securing corn  Market  Increasing of revenue
 Provincial  Mass
DRIVERS OF L
price produced demand on land
development by local farmers forest product requirement economic
program  Increasing and palm oil  Mass distribution
Mass economic gross regional  Increasing economic
distribution revenue gross regional distribution
 Province spatial  Province spatial revenue  National
planning planning investment
IPKMA permit policy

Dominant land use changes in five sites  Shrub to
Timber
 Forest to Estate Plantation
(oil palm) (HTR)
 Forest to Timber  Forest to Estate Shrub to
Shrub to
Plantation (oil palm) Agroforestry
 Forest to Timber  Magrove
 Forest to Plantation to Fishpond
k)
Mining
Mi i
orest Cover (C-Stock
Concession
 Forest to
Forest to
Cropland
Fo
Papua Gorontalo Kal‐Sel
Kal Sel Jambi Pasuruan
Time

Participatory approach in discussing low emission
development planning
development planning
Objectives:
 Translating local development plan to the
configuration of land use
 Analyzing the impact of planning on the
emission level
 Planning t
l towards low emissions
d l
development

REDD Quadrant
REDD Quadrant
Q2 Q1
emissio
REDD REDD Negotiable
scenario
n
Q3 Q4
Non feasible for Developments
Developments
REDD scenario
Increasing economic value

PAPUA

GORONTALO

JAMBI

SOUTH
KALIMANTAN

PASURUAN

Thank you
Thank you
More detail results, data and information:
More detail results data and information:
http://www.worldagroforestry.org/sea
/projects/allreddi/