Drivers of Land use changes acrossIndonesia and opportunities to reduce                 ppemissions (In progress) Jusupta ...
QQuantification of land use change and                                g  GHG emissions at the national level
Indonesia ‐ Land area 1,919,440 km2 with population d i 123 76/k 2 . More than 70% of the land is density 123.76/km M     ...
Indonesia Commitment on Climate          Change Mitigation           h      ii i      COPENHAGEN 2009                     ...
Implications of the commitment at national                   and sub national                     d b     i   l• How to qu...
Landcover mapping• The land cover maps that cover at least three  The land cover maps that cover at least three   time per...
Overall figure of Land cover change 1990‐2005Overall figure of Land cover change 1990Overall figure of Land cover change 1...
Typical carbon stock of all land use systems in Indonesia at national level        i    d     i        i    ll l
Above ground carbon stock map of          Indonesia 1990           d    i
Above ground carbon stock map of          Indonesia 2000           d    i
Above ground carbon stock map of          Indonesia 2005           d    i
Change of above ground carbon stock in      Indonesia 1990‐2000‐2005     I d     i 1990 2000 2005    1990 2000    1990‐200...
Green house gas emission from land            use/cover change              /       h                                     ...
Where the emission came from?               Where the emission came from? 75 % of GHG emission  from land use change were ...
What has caused the emission?What has caused the emission?
Understanding the drivers of land use Understanding the drivers of land use change and strategies based on local          ...
Our main assumption         Our main assumption1. It s important to understand sub‐1 It’s important to understand sub‐   n...
MethodsFocus Group DiscussionObjectives  j1. identify dominant trajectories of land use changes2. identify the drivers of ...
Stakeholders consultation on the outputsStakeholders consultation on the outputs
ALLREDDI Pilot areaALLREDDI Pilot area        DRAFT
Land use transition stage in IndonesiaLand use transition stage in Indonesia  FOREST_CORE            Papua  FOREST_FRONTIE...
Drivers of LUC identified in the workshops                                                                 PROVINCE/DISTRI...
Dominant land use changes in five sites                               Shrub to                                           ...
Participatory approach in discussing low emission                     development planning                    development ...
REDD Quadrant                 REDD Quadrant            Q2                  Q1emissio          REDD               REDD Nego...
PAPUA
GORONTALO
JAMBI
SOUTH KALIMANTAN
PASURUAN
Thank you                 Thank youMore detail results, data and information:More detail results data and information:http...
Drivers of land use changes and opportunities to reduc emissions in indonesia
Drivers of land use changes and opportunities to reduc emissions in indonesia
Drivers of land use changes and opportunities to reduc emissions in indonesia
Drivers of land use changes and opportunities to reduc emissions in indonesia
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Drivers of land use changes and opportunities to reduc emissions in indonesia

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Drivers of land use changes and opportunities to reduc emissions in indonesia

  1. 1. Drivers of Land use changes acrossIndonesia and opportunities to reduce ppemissions (In progress) Jusupta Tarigan, Andree Ekadinata, Atiek Widayati
  2. 2. QQuantification of land use change and  g GHG emissions at the national level
  3. 3. Indonesia ‐ Land area 1,919,440 km2 with population d i 123 76/k 2 . More than 70% of the land is density 123.76/km M h 70% f h l d iforest area by law.‐ Regarded as the country with the third highest emissions (and the number 1 for land‐use based  (emissions, with per capita emissions some 30% above those in the EU)
  4. 4. Indonesia Commitment on Climate  Change Mitigation h ii i COPENHAGEN 2009 LETTER OF INTENT INDONESIA‐ Indonesia committed  NORWAY 2010 to  to 26% emission emission  A two year suspension on all new reduction unilaterally plus additio concessions for conversion of peat  nal 15% through  and natural forest international support by 2020 while retaining 7 % of economic Growth.
  5. 5. Implications of the commitment at national  and sub national d b i l• How to quantify and monitored emission? q y• How to design emission reduction plan? • p Should all province treated in the same way?y• How to ensure that emission reduction will not halt  economic development? p• What will be the benefits for local people? g p• How will it affect large scale economic plan that  already decided?
  6. 6. Landcover mapping• The land cover maps that cover at least three The land cover maps that cover at least three  time period considered to be significant in  REDD discussion: 1990, 2000, and 2005 • Legend categories should be sufficiently  details in  reflecting the variations of carbon  stock while generic enough to represent  LULUCF at national level • Should reach acceptable level of accuracy  for the most recent maps
  7. 7. Overall figure of Land cover change 1990‐2005Overall figure of Land cover change 1990Overall figure of Land cover change 1990‐
  8. 8. Typical carbon stock of all land use systems in Indonesia at national level i d i i ll l
  9. 9. Above ground carbon stock map of  Indonesia 1990 d i
  10. 10. Above ground carbon stock map of  Indonesia 2000 d i
  11. 11. Above ground carbon stock map of  Indonesia 2005 d i
  12. 12. Change of above ground carbon stock in  Indonesia 1990‐2000‐2005 I d i 1990 2000 2005 1990 2000 1990‐2000 2000 2005 2000‐2005 1990 2005 1990‐2005
  13. 13. Green house gas emission from land  use/cover change / h 1990‐2000 2000‐2005Annual emissions (t C/(ha y)) 3.378 3.390Annual sequestrations (t C/(ha y)) 0.797 0.697Net annual emissions (t C/(ha y)) 2.581 2 581 2.693 2 693Total Annual emissions (Gt C/(y)) 0.626 0.628Total Annual sequestrations (Gt C/(y)) 0.148 0.129Total Net annual emissions (Gt C/(y)) 0.478 0.499
  14. 14. Where the emission came from? Where the emission came from? 75 % of GHG emission  from land use change were produced by only  ere prod ced b onl10 out of 33 province in  Indonesia
  15. 15. What has caused the emission?What has caused the emission?
  16. 16. Understanding the drivers of land use Understanding the drivers of land use change and strategies based on local  k h ld l i stakeholders consultation
  17. 17. Our main assumption Our main assumption1. It s important to understand sub‐1 It’s important to understand sub‐ national heterogeneity in developing  emission reduction plan i i d ti l2. It is important to recognize region with  similar characteristics in term of forest  cover dynamics, threat , and  cover dynamics, threat , and development  pathways 
  18. 18. MethodsFocus Group DiscussionObjectives j1. identify dominant trajectories of land use changes2. identify the drivers of land use changes y g3. identify and rank the emitter land use change4. combine the emission level assessment with economic value of activityeconomic value of activity5. apply the above assessment in the REDD feasibility quadrant
  19. 19. Stakeholders consultation on the outputsStakeholders consultation on the outputs
  20. 20. ALLREDDI Pilot areaALLREDDI Pilot area DRAFT
  21. 21. Land use transition stage in IndonesiaLand use transition stage in Indonesia FOREST_CORE Papua FOREST_FRONTIER_1 (forest core) FOREST_FRONTIER_3 Gorontalo FOREST_MOSAICS_1 FOREST MOSAICS 1 (forest frontier 1) FOREST_MOSAICS_2 Jambi (forest frontier 2) South Kalimantan (forest mosaic 1) Pasuruan (forest mosaic 2)
  22. 22. Drivers of LUC identified in the workshops PROVINCE/DISTRICT Papua Gorontalo Kal Sel Kal‐Sel Jambi Pasuruan CHANGE  National and   Population  Increasing of   Provincial   Market Provincial Policy growth land  development  demand on   Market demand   Increasing of  requirement plan timber  LAND‐USE C on forest product  land requirement  Food security Increasing  production and palm oil  Provincial   Province  gross regional   Increasing   Increasing gross  regulation on  spatial planning revenue gross regional  regional revenue securing corn   Market   Increasing of  revenue  Provincial   Mass DRIVERS OF L price produced  demand on  land  development  by local farmers forest product  requirement economic  program   Increasing  and palm oil  Mass  distribution Mass economic  gross regional   Increasing  economic  distribution revenue gross regional  distribution  Province spatial   Province spatial  revenue  National  planning planning investment  IPKMA permit policy
  23. 23. Dominant land use changes in five sites  Shrub to  Timber   Forest to Estate  Plantation  (oil palm) (HTR)  Forest to Timber   Forest to Estate  Shrub to  Shrub to Plantation (oil palm) Agroforestry  Forest to Timber   Magrove  Forest to  Plantation to Fishpond k) Mining  Mi i orest Cover (C-Stock Concession  Forest to Forest to  CroplandFo Papua Gorontalo Kal‐Sel Kal Sel Jambi Pasuruan Time
  24. 24. Participatory approach in discussing low emission  development planning development planningObjectives: Translating local development plan to the  configuration of land use Analyzing the impact of planning on the  emission level Planning  t l towards low emissions  d l development
  25. 25. REDD Quadrant REDD Quadrant Q2 Q1emissio REDD  REDD Negotiable scenarion Q3 Q4 Non feasible for  Developments  Developments REDD scenario Increasing economic value
  26. 26. PAPUA
  27. 27. GORONTALO
  28. 28. JAMBI
  29. 29. SOUTH KALIMANTAN
  30. 30. PASURUAN
  31. 31. Thank you Thank youMore detail results, data and information:More detail results data and information:http://www.worldagroforestry.org/sea /projects/allreddi/

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