Economics of innovation in mobile

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The mobile landscape has changed quite dramatically over the past few years, with the emergence of new mobile platforms and a significant shift toward open source in mobile technologies. What are the key economic drivers for this shift, and what are the lessons that can be learnt from the mobile industry's adoption of open source?

This talk draws on Andrew's experiences as Open Source Manager for the LiMo Foundation. It looks at how and why open source has become commonplace in mobile platform development, and the advantages and pitfalls of using open source.

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Economics of innovation in mobile

  1. 1. The economics of innovation in mobile technologies Transfer Summit, Oxford, 25 June 2010
  2. 2. Hi, I’m Andrew. http://www.andrewsavory.com/blog/ andrew.savory@limofoundation.org asavory@apache.org twitter @savs
  3. 3. economics innovation mobile technologies
  4. 4. 2005 2007 1983 2002 2006 1998 The dim & distant past
  5. 5. $ We are here Investment Value Creation The future
  6. 6. The present
  7. 7. 3 Mobile OSS Economic Drivers Reduced cost of acquisition of software Reduced cost of access to innovation Reduced cost of ownership of software
  8. 8. GeoClue
  9. 9. ... reduced cost of ownership ... ... collaboration with OSS projects for maintenance of community software ...
  10. 10. Maintenance is the biggest cost in the TCO of Community Open Source Software
  11. 11. !"#$%&'("$&))*"&+,'-$ .)'/$0"1*+'$ 213($435$6$%&'("$01((37$899:
  12. 12. 9#4#*$#&$--1:&"#4#*$#&-;)#1 21)#"1*4 21)#"1*4&"-*.+*( 74(%* 8#)* !01*4&"#4#*$# .#6#4-(+#1) 9# 4#* !"#$%&,-.# 8'>$ $#& /0$ 21) "#4#*$#. !##.?*,@ (4* 0-1 #1 1 )0- 1$ <==&"-*.+*( <(#1 .#6#4-(+#1) ,-++'10)3&"-*.+*($ .# A-1)"0?')0-1$ &,- '($)"#*+ *+# $)" 8'>$&B&!0C#$ &'( $% !" # 5($)"#*+ .#6#4-(+#1) <==&'($)"#*+&"-*.+*($
  13. 13. Product code Internal “fork” Upstream open source Forking
  14. 14. = FAIL
  15. 15. S/W £10. 5m
  16. 16. Where an open mobile platform is already using key open source projects of Mobile critical importance, there is direct economic value in Open Source constructive engagement with Economic Analysis the corresponding open source communities. LiMo Foundation White Paper August 2009 ™ ™ White Paper 1 blog.limofoundation.org/index.php/LiMo-Foundation/Mining-of-Open-Source-Code-to-Understand-the-Economics-of-Using-Open-Source-Within-Mobile.html www.google.com/search?q=limo+blog+mal+economic+analysis
  17. 17. Maintenance is the biggest cost in the TCO of Community Open Source Software... Product code Internal “fork” Upstream open source “unleveraged potential”
  18. 18. merge downstream contribute upstream
  19. 19. Merge Never $40m / 283 FTEs per year Merge Late Contribute Late $20m / 141 FTEs per year Merge Early Contribute Later $10m / 70 FTEs per year Merge Early Contribute Early $8.3m / 24 FTEs per year
  20. 20. Cost of upstream resync Closer integration with Community open source upstream innovation development codeline Greater sophistication required to manage MN integration activity MLCL With ME, the Resync vendor’s internal MECL (merge) dev branch is OSS with MECE Contribute upstream upstream later Time Product development cycle approx 2 years Software selection decision Product shipment made at this point made at this point
  21. 21. Working with open source is a sophisticated supply chain management problem ... ... not rocket science.
  22. 22. Meritocracy evaluators users contributing users contributing developers committers Increasing technical steering group involvement (benevolent) dictator
  23. 23. The future
  24. 24. “the evolution of software has been anything but linear in the last two years; Google’s Android, an operating system that was greeted with skepticism in 2008 become a launchpad for just about everyone working within the mobile industry.” source:VisionMobile www.visionmobile.com/blog/2010/06/lead-innovate-or-assemble-how-software-is-changing-the-macro-economics-of-mobile-handsets-2/
  25. 25. Convergence
  26. 26. Platforms
  27. 27. Developers http://www.flickr.com/photos/nielsvk/258859545/
  28. 28. Thank you!

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