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I, Paul the Octopus
Iʼm good with prediction
Iʼm VERY good with prediction
I, Paul the Octopus
I, Paul the Octopus
I, Paul the Octopus
I, Paul the Octopus
I, Paul the Octopus
Iʼm that good...
Now everyone can be Octopus
Google Prediction API
I, Paul the Octopus
Hi, I’m Paul
Hi, I’m Paul
I, Paul the Octopus
I, Paul the Octopus
I, Paul the Octopus
I, Paul the Octopus
I, Paul the Octopus
I, Paul the Octopus
We want result!!
We want result!!
Your headlines aren’t
    converting!!!
We want result!!
Your headlines aren’t
    converting!!!
I, Paul the Octopus
Split testing is
   too slow
Split testing is
   too slow

        It’s time to play
               god
Split testing is
   too slow

        It’s time to play
               god
            I will have to
             predict the
              FUTURE
Predict the conversion rate with
    Google Prediction API
ve           ha             t           i            ra           up                         r                                                a
       t s T           For is Pr              m bar h Gro                               Sta                                            o n c
r ofi       ad e a e Th               s e E Whic                ou  ?        t  Get                                           in  ati
      I M s Hav                  The s -                 s s Y       C an'                                             i mag
How sand                   Of         or           rra          ut            chs                                  th
                      ny          st             a            b            ma                                    i
 Th ou         D o A       I nve           Emb te -                  Sto                                  e n w
        Y ou          of          E ver        W ri           Our and!                            nl y m
   Do      Ty pes        h ild nt To                i nst le L                            u t o
      ix            r C o Wa                   Aga Litt                              - b
    S
           s  You        Wh
                                           t
                                     mmi th a                                Pay
                                   o
     Doe eople              We
                                 C        wi               e"
                                                      rac at Fu
                                                                        ll
            P                          s            G
       To            mes onder                0,           p
               Cri o W                a   $5         Tri
         The to D                xtr Years                               d
                          an
                               E                                    orl
          How       's            Two         !           T he
                                                                  W
                   e           l
           " Her derfu              st  ake n in                hir
                                                                     t
                                  i            o              S
             A  Won        0 0 M       r eas         aw ay
                  $1  0,0 test                 ath                                                 At
              A          re a          h e H                                                o od
                    e G         i n t ch!                   lly ney                  l y G
                Th         an          Ri
                                                          a
                                                    Leg t Mo                   eal
                         M         e                                         R
                  The       T o B        B a nks Abou                 Are r?                               one
                                                                                                                y
                     are           ob           ct             You ette                   You ave M               l
                   D
                            T o R ng Fa                h at           L          L ike 't S                t ifu
                       ow          li             r W iness                le           on            eau                     e
                     H         rt         co  ve       us              op             D          l  B                    liv
                      A   Sta       Dis e a B                 n
                                                                     e
                                                                g P sband
                                                                                  s
                                                                                           Gir le                  en
                                                                                                                       A
                               To         it           M aki e Hu                 lai
                                                                                       n
                                                                                               eop            Eat                              Pla
                                                                                                                                                   n
                        How To Wr                of                         a P nce P                    ng                                 e
                                             s            W hos          e                         Bei                                mpl
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                                           t                         ad           ue            t                                  Si           ?
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                                                              r
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                                                                                                                                     ver
                                                                                                                                          c
                           Th            t            c            a            ks          g             c          o             O
                                  ice           Dis ends                  har in En                t oma       F oll         to
                            Adv          New        F ri           he
                                                                        S
                                                                               s              r S         ou         Wan
                                                                                                                          t
                                     a                           T           e            ou            Y
                              H ow          Win        w i th       i s tak        i n Y       -   if
                                                                                                           o  You
                                        o
                                   w t        Sw  im       hi  s M         de" rries                c h d g
                               Ho                                        o
                                                                    xpl y Wo                   Whi enin
                                    w   to       ak  e T        "E                         -          v            y!         Car
                                                                                                                                    e
                                 Ho             M            s           ne             s           E           Da         n
                                        Y ou         F ood at Mo                u ble        O ne        i ng         Law
                                  Do          ome augh                 n   Tro y in                    d
                                                                                                  Wed Bette
                                                                                                                   r
                                            S
                                      hy             L           Ski Memor                     r
                                                                                         You s of                                             s
                                    W        C a n
                                                          i a r        y            On          t                                    in ute age
                                     You           amil ved M               n ed         e cre                    D ay        3 0 M o Man
                                             e F mpro                 ppe          2 S                       me          or           t
                                       Fiv I I                     ha         u  1
                                                                                          t hy        g   So        d  f       i er
                                             w              his ls Yo                eal orkin                 oun - Eas              d
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                                                pos ok                    e in        i             Spe oth                y   C                                       es
                                          Sup         Bo          t o B to Qu                 nce         mo          The uick!                                    com
                                                                                            e           S          t                                            ce
                                            F ree          ret Want                 A udi Hair                ugh ors Q                                     Roy
                                                     Sec ho                    an          r             Tho       Od           Is                    lls
                                                                                                                                                          -
                                                he           W           ng           You           er          n          he                      Ro
headlines.txt
"high", "They Laughed When I Sat Down at The Piano - But When I Started to Play!"
"low", "Give Black What They Deserve"
"high", "Profits That Lie Hidden In Your Farm"
"high", "How I Made a Fortune With a Fool Idea"
"high", "Thousands Have This Priceless Gift - but Never Discover It!"
"low", "Do You Do Any Of These Embarrassing Things?"
"high", "Six Types of Investors - Which Group Are You In?"
"high", "Does Your Child Ever Embarrass You?"
"low", "To People Who Want To Write - but Can't Get Started"
"high", "The Crimes We Commit Against Our Stomachs"
"high", "How to Do Wonders with a Little Land!"
"high", """"Here's an Extra $50, Grace""""
"high", "A Wonderful Two Years Trip at Full Pay - but only men with imagination can t
"low", "A $10,000 Mistake!"
"low", "The Greatest reason in The World"
"high", "The Man in the Hathaway Shirt"
"high", "Dare To Be Rich!"
"high", "How To Rob Banks Legally"
"high", "A Startling Fact About Money"
"low", "How To Discover What You Are Really Good At"
"high", "How To Write a Business Letter?"
"high", "The Secrets of Making People Like You"
"high", "Advice to Wives Whose Husbands Don't Save Money"
"high", "How a New Discovery Made a Plain Girl Beautiful"
"low", "How to Win Friends and Influence People"
"high", "How to Swim with The Sharks without Being Eaten Alive"
$ java -cp oacurl-1.2.0.jar com.google.oacurl.Login --scope 
  https://www.googleapis.com/auth/prediction
$ gsutil cp ./headlines.txt gs://mindvalley/prediction_models/headlines
$ ./oauth-train.sh mindvalley/prediction_models/headlines
{
  "kind": "prediction#training",
  "id": "mindvalley/prediction_models/headlines",
  "selfLink": "https://www.googleapis.com/prediction/v1.2/training/mindvalley/
prediction_models/headlines"
}
#!/bin/bash
# Train a prediction model.
# Usage: oauth-train.sh MODEL_NAME

ID=$1
KEY=`cat googlekey`

post_data="{"id":"$ID"}"

# Train the model.
java -cp ./oacurl-1.2.0.jar com.google.oacurl.Fetch -X POST 
-t JSON 
"https://www.googleapis.com/prediction/v1.3/training?key=$KEY" <<< $post_data
echo
#!/bin/bash
# Train a prediction model.
# Usage: oauth-train.sh MODEL_NAME

ID=$1
KEY=`cat googlekey`

post_data="{"id":"mindvalley/prediction_models/headlines"}"

# Train the model.
java -cp ./oacurl-1.2.0.jar com.google.oacurl.Fetch -X POST 
-t JSON 
"https://www.googleapis.com/prediction/v1.3/training?key=$KEY" <<< $post_data
echo
$ ./oauth-check-training.sh mindvalley/prediction_models/headlines
{
  "kind": "prediction#training",
  "id": "mindvalley/prediction_models/headlines",
  "selfLink": "https://www.googleapis.com/prediction/v1.2/training/mindvalley/
prediction_models/headlines",
  "modelInfo": {
   "modelType": "classification",
   "classificationAccuracy": 0.95
  },
  "trainingStatus": "DONE"
}
$ ./oauth-check-training.sh mindvalley/prediction_models/headlines
{
  "kind": "prediction#training",
  "id": "mindvalley/prediction_models/headlines",
  "selfLink": "https://www.googleapis.com/prediction/v1.2/training/mindvalley/
prediction_models/headlines",
  "modelInfo": {
   "modelType": "regression",
   "classificationAccuracy": 0.95
  },
  "trainingStatus": "DONE"
}



0,"They Laughed When I Sat Down at The Piano - But When I Started to Play!"
20,"Give Black What They Deserve"
45,"How I Made a Fortune With a Fool Idea"
67,"How to Swim with The Sharks without Being Eaten Alive"
$ ./oauth-predict.sh mindvalley/prediction_models/headlines ""Be awesome like
Wu Han""
{
  "kind": "prediction#output",
  "id": "mindvalley/prediction_models/headlines",
  "selfLink": "https://www.googleapis.com/prediction/v1.3/training/mindvalley/
prediction_models/headlines/predict",
  "outputLabel": "low",
  "outputMulti": [
    {
      "label": "high",
      "score": 0.334130
    },
    {
      "label": "low",
      "score": 0.418339
    }
  ]
}
I’m a happy man
I’m a happy man



     @arzumy
I’m a happy man



     @arzumy


  http://bnorpr.gv.my
12th - 13th October 2011 http://hitb.org/hackweekday

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I, Paul the Octopus

  • 1. I, Paul the Octopus
  • 2. Iʼm good with prediction
  • 3. Iʼm VERY good with prediction
  • 10. Now everyone can be Octopus
  • 22. We want result!! Your headlines aren’t converting!!!
  • 23. We want result!! Your headlines aren’t converting!!!
  • 25. Split testing is too slow
  • 26. Split testing is too slow It’s time to play god
  • 27. Split testing is too slow It’s time to play god I will have to predict the FUTURE
  • 28. Predict the conversion rate with Google Prediction API
  • 29. ve ha t i ra up r a t s T For is Pr m bar h Gro Sta o n c r ofi ad e a e Th s e E Whic ou ? t Get in ati I M s Hav The s - s s Y C an' i mag How sand Of or rra ut chs th ny st a b ma i Th ou D o A I nve Emb te - Sto e n w Y ou of E ver W ri Our and! nl y m Do Ty pes h ild nt To i nst le L u t o ix r C o Wa Aga Litt - b S s You Wh t mmi th a Pay o Doe eople We C wi e" rac at Fu ll P s G To mes onder 0, p Cri o W a $5 Tri The to D xtr Years d an E orl How 's Two ! T he W e l " Her derfu st ake n in hir t i o S A Won 0 0 M r eas aw ay $1 0,0 test ath At A re a h e H o od e G i n t ch! lly ney l y G Th an Ri a Leg t Mo eal M e R The T o B B a nks Abou Are r? one y are ob ct You ette You ave M l D T o R ng Fa h at L L ike 't S t ifu ow li r W iness le on eau e H rt co ve us op D l B liv A Sta Dis e a B n e g P sband s Gir le en A To it M aki e Hu lai n eop Eat Pla n How To Wr of a P nce P ng e s W hos e Bei mpl How t ad ue t Si ? e cre Wives y M nfl hou h? is ome e S o ove r nd I wit lis h w T h ver c Th t c a ks g c o O ice Dis ends har in En t oma F oll to Adv New F ri he S s r S ou Wan t a T e ou Y H ow Win w i th i s tak i n Y - if o You o w t Sw im hi s M de" rries c h d g Ho o xpl y Wo Whi enin w to ak e T "E - v y! Car e Ho M s ne s E Da n Y ou F ood at Mo u ble O ne i ng Law Do ome augh n Tro y in d Wed Bette r S hy L Ski Memor r You s of s W C a n i a r y On t in ute age You amil ved M n ed e cre D ay 3 0 M o Man e F mpro ppe 2 S me or t Fiv I I ha u 1 t hy g So d f i er w his ls Yo eal orkin oun - Eas d Ho e T Tel g W t W llb er oul f pos ok e in i Spe oth y C es Sup Bo t o B to Qu nce mo The uick! com e S t ce F ree ret Want A udi Hair ugh ors Q Roy Sec ho an r Tho Od Is lls - he W ng You er n he Ro
  • 30. headlines.txt "high", "They Laughed When I Sat Down at The Piano - But When I Started to Play!" "low", "Give Black What They Deserve" "high", "Profits That Lie Hidden In Your Farm" "high", "How I Made a Fortune With a Fool Idea" "high", "Thousands Have This Priceless Gift - but Never Discover It!" "low", "Do You Do Any Of These Embarrassing Things?" "high", "Six Types of Investors - Which Group Are You In?" "high", "Does Your Child Ever Embarrass You?" "low", "To People Who Want To Write - but Can't Get Started" "high", "The Crimes We Commit Against Our Stomachs" "high", "How to Do Wonders with a Little Land!" "high", """"Here's an Extra $50, Grace"""" "high", "A Wonderful Two Years Trip at Full Pay - but only men with imagination can t "low", "A $10,000 Mistake!" "low", "The Greatest reason in The World" "high", "The Man in the Hathaway Shirt" "high", "Dare To Be Rich!" "high", "How To Rob Banks Legally" "high", "A Startling Fact About Money" "low", "How To Discover What You Are Really Good At" "high", "How To Write a Business Letter?" "high", "The Secrets of Making People Like You" "high", "Advice to Wives Whose Husbands Don't Save Money" "high", "How a New Discovery Made a Plain Girl Beautiful" "low", "How to Win Friends and Influence People" "high", "How to Swim with The Sharks without Being Eaten Alive"
  • 31. $ java -cp oacurl-1.2.0.jar com.google.oacurl.Login --scope https://www.googleapis.com/auth/prediction
  • 32. $ gsutil cp ./headlines.txt gs://mindvalley/prediction_models/headlines
  • 33. $ ./oauth-train.sh mindvalley/prediction_models/headlines { "kind": "prediction#training", "id": "mindvalley/prediction_models/headlines", "selfLink": "https://www.googleapis.com/prediction/v1.2/training/mindvalley/ prediction_models/headlines" }
  • 34. #!/bin/bash # Train a prediction model. # Usage: oauth-train.sh MODEL_NAME ID=$1 KEY=`cat googlekey` post_data="{"id":"$ID"}" # Train the model. java -cp ./oacurl-1.2.0.jar com.google.oacurl.Fetch -X POST -t JSON "https://www.googleapis.com/prediction/v1.3/training?key=$KEY" <<< $post_data echo
  • 35. #!/bin/bash # Train a prediction model. # Usage: oauth-train.sh MODEL_NAME ID=$1 KEY=`cat googlekey` post_data="{"id":"mindvalley/prediction_models/headlines"}" # Train the model. java -cp ./oacurl-1.2.0.jar com.google.oacurl.Fetch -X POST -t JSON "https://www.googleapis.com/prediction/v1.3/training?key=$KEY" <<< $post_data echo
  • 36. $ ./oauth-check-training.sh mindvalley/prediction_models/headlines { "kind": "prediction#training", "id": "mindvalley/prediction_models/headlines", "selfLink": "https://www.googleapis.com/prediction/v1.2/training/mindvalley/ prediction_models/headlines", "modelInfo": { "modelType": "classification", "classificationAccuracy": 0.95 }, "trainingStatus": "DONE" }
  • 37. $ ./oauth-check-training.sh mindvalley/prediction_models/headlines { "kind": "prediction#training", "id": "mindvalley/prediction_models/headlines", "selfLink": "https://www.googleapis.com/prediction/v1.2/training/mindvalley/ prediction_models/headlines", "modelInfo": { "modelType": "regression", "classificationAccuracy": 0.95 }, "trainingStatus": "DONE" } 0,"They Laughed When I Sat Down at The Piano - But When I Started to Play!" 20,"Give Black What They Deserve" 45,"How I Made a Fortune With a Fool Idea" 67,"How to Swim with The Sharks without Being Eaten Alive"
  • 38. $ ./oauth-predict.sh mindvalley/prediction_models/headlines ""Be awesome like Wu Han"" { "kind": "prediction#output", "id": "mindvalley/prediction_models/headlines", "selfLink": "https://www.googleapis.com/prediction/v1.3/training/mindvalley/ prediction_models/headlines/predict", "outputLabel": "low", "outputMulti": [ { "label": "high", "score": 0.334130 }, { "label": "low", "score": 0.418339 } ] }
  • 40. I’m a happy man @arzumy
  • 41. I’m a happy man @arzumy http://bnorpr.gv.my
  • 42. 12th - 13th October 2011 http://hitb.org/hackweekday

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