SCOPE OF GROWTH IN RETAIL SECTOR DURING THE PERIOD
2009-2011 IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL RECESSION
The phenomenon of organized retailing, in spite of its tremendous growth in the last 2-3
years in India has just seen the tip of the iceberg. As giants like Reliance, Bharti-Walmart
and others enter the fray, the scenario is going to become more competitive and attractive.
Under this backdrop, the fruits and vegetable sector (F&V) sector has a tremendous potential
to take advantage of this development. Right now, with less than 1% of the produce being
marketed in an organized way and an inefficient supply chain plaguing the system with
losses and wastages, there is a need to evolve a frame-work or a model of retailing that
configures an efficient supply chain to benefit the retailers, farmers and the customers alike.
Demographics continue to show a positive report to spur retailing growth. Consumers aged 20-
45 years is emerging as the fastest growing consumer group and the mean age of Indians is now
pegged at 27, a mean age that reinforces spending across all the retailing channels of grocery,
non-grocery and non-store.
The government stance of protecting local retailers and prohibiting 100% foreign direct
investment in retailing continued in 2005, restraining international retailers' entry. However,
there was gradual economic reform, giving way to easier and faster franchising agreements as
well as the loosening of zonal regulations on retail expansion, thus stimulating retailing.
Non-store retailing is expected to continue its fast-paced growth from a miniscule base.
Across all channels, growth in retailing is expected to be boosted heightened competition during
the period 2009-2011 due to the growing.
I would like to express my heartfelt gratitude to Professor Mrs. KRITI SWARUP, MIM
NOIDA for giving me this great opportunity to work on Scope of Growth in RETAIL
SECTOR during the period 2009-2011 in the context of GLOBAL RECESSION under her
able tutelage. I would like to thank her for her guidance during the project and taking out
time for me from her busy schedule.
This Final Project, 2009 as a part of PGDM Programme has given me an
opportunity to gather data without visiting the organization. This has brought encouragement
to complete the project. However with lot of dedication, concentration, hard work, support,
guidance, & assistance of concerned people has made it possible to complete the project.
PGDM IV SEMESTER
Table of Contents
Global Retail Industry
Scenario of Retailing in India
Retailers are facing numerous challenges
PRESENT INDIAN SCENARIO
Few of India's top retailers are
INDIAN RETAIL IS MOVING INTO SECOND GEAR
GROWTH STAGES IN INDIA
THE EVOLUTION OF THE INDIAN CUSTOMER
Trends in Present Retail Market…………………………………………………………20
New Product Categories
Increasing competition in the retail market
Increase in Private Labels
Expanding to Tier II and III cities
Foray into Retail Agri-Business
Experimenting with formats
Technology in Retail ………………………………………………………………………22
Customer Interfacing Systems
Operation Support Systems
Advanced Planning and Scheduling Systems
Challenges in Retail
Proposed Supply Chain Strategies for Retail Industry
Supply Chain Strategies in Retail
Competitive Areas of Importance
Model in Detail
Tips for Controlling Retail Inventory ………………..
Inventory & Credit Operations (Using JETRMS Software)
7 P’s of Services …………………………………………………………………………...35
SCOPE OF 24hr RETAILING
Rural Vs Urban Retail Trends
Backdrop: then and
Changing retail scenario
A glimpse into future
Perspectives: food and grocery
What Causes Recession
FDI IN RETAIL
SEGMENTS OF INDIAN RETAIL
FUTURE OUTLOOK AND CHALLENGES ………………………………………….…
he word 'retail' is derived from the French word 'retaillier' meaning 'to cut a piece
off' or 'to break bulk'. In simple terms it involves activities whereby product or
services are sold to final consumers in small quantities. Although retailing in its
various formats has been around our country for many decades, it has been confined for
along time to family owned corner shops.
Englishmen are great soccer enthusiasts, and they strongly think that one should never give
Indians a corner. It stems from the belief that, if you give an Indian a corner he would end up
setting a shop. That is how great Indians retail management skill is considered.
Retailing in more developed countries are big business and better organized that what it is in
India. Report published by McKinsey & Co. in partnership with Confederation of Indian
Industry (CII) states that the global retail business is worth a staggering US $ 7 trillion. The
ratio of organized retailing to unorganized in US is around 80 to 20, in Europe it is 70 to 30,
while in Asia it comes to around 20 to 80.
In India the scenario is quiet unique, organized retailing accounts for a mere 5% of the total
retail sector. Although there are around 5 million retail stores in India, 90% of these have a
floor space area of 500 sq.ft. Or less. The emergence of organized retailing in India is a
recent phenomenon and is concentrated in the top 20 urban towns and cities
This emergence of organized retailing has been due to the demographic and psychographic
changes taking place in the life of urban consumers.
Growing number of nuclear families, working women, greater work pressure, changing
values and Lifestyles, increased commuting time, influence of western way of life etc. have
meant that the needs and wants of consumers have shifted from just being Cost and
Relationship drive to Brand and Experience driven, while the Value element still dominating
the buying decisions.
The Global Retail Industry
Retail stores constitute 20% of US GDP & are the 3 rd
largest employer segment in USA.
China on the other hand has attracted several global retailers in recent times. Retail sector
employs 7% of the population in China. Major retailers like Wal-Mart & Carrefour have
already entered the Chinese market. In the year 2003, Wal-Mart & Carrefour had sales of US
$ 70.4 Crore & US $ 160 Crore respectively.
The global retail industry has traveled a long way from a small beginning to an industry
where the world wide retail sales is valued at $ 7 x 10 5
Crore. The top 200 retailers alone
accounts for 30 % of the worldwide demand. Retail turnover in the EU is approximately
Euros 2, 00,000 Crore and the sector average growth is showing an upward pattern. The
Asian economies (excluding Japan) are expected to grow at 6% consistently till 2005-06.
On the global Retail stage, little has remained same over the last decade. One of the few
similarities with today is that Wal-Mart was ranked the top retailer in the world then & it still
holds that distinction. Other than Wal-Mart's dominance, there's a little about today's
environment that looks like the mid-1990s. The global economy has changed, consumer
demand has shifted & retailers' operating systems today are infused with far more
technology than was the case six years ago.
Scenario of Retailing in India
Retailing is the most active and attractive sector of last decade. While the retailing industry
itself has been present since ages in our country, it is only the recent past that it has
witnessed so much dynamism. The emergence of retailing in India has more to do with the
increased purchasing power of buyers, especially post-liberalization, increase in product
variety, and increase in economies of scale, with the aid of modern supply and distributions
solution. Indian retailing today is at an interesting crossroads. The retail sales are at the
highest point in history and new technologies are improving retail productivity. Though
there are many opportunities to start a new retail business.
Retailers are facing numerous challenges
"Right Place, Right choice"
Location is the most important ingredient for any business that relies on customers, and is
typically the prime consideration in a customer’s store choice. Locations decisions are harder
to change because retailers have to either make sustainable investments to buy and develop
real estate or commit to long-term lease with developers. When formulating decision about
where to locate, the retailer must refer to the strategic plan.
* Investigate alternative trading areas.
* Determine the type of desirable store location.
* Evaluate alternative specific store sites.
The primary goal of the most retailers is to sell the right kind of merchandise and nothing is
more central to the strategic thrust of the retailing firm. Merchandising consists of activities
involved in acquiring particular goods and services and making them available at a place,
time and quantity that enable the retailer to reach its goals. Merchandising is perhaps, the
most important function for any retail organization, as it decides what finally goes on shelf
of the store.
Pricing is a crucial strategic variable due to its direct relationship with a firm's goal and
its interaction with other retailing elements. The importance of pricing decisions is
growing because today's customers are looking for good value when they buy
merchandise and services. Price is the easiest and quickest variable to change.
4) TARGET AUDIENCE: - "Consumer the prime mover"
"Consumer Pull", however, seems to be the most important driving factor behind the
sustenance of the industry. The purchasing power of the customers has increased to a
great extent, with the influencing the retail industry to a great extent, a variety of other
factors also seem to fuel the retailing boom.
5) SCALE OF OPERATIONS:
Scale of operations includes all the supply chain activities, which are carried out in the
business. It is one of the challenges that the Indian retailers are facing. The cost of
business operations is very high in India.
PRESENT INDIAN SCENARIO
* Unorganized market: Rs. 583,000 crores
* Organized market: Rs.5, 000 crores
* 5X growth in organized retailing between 2000-2005
* Over 4,000 new modern Outlets in the last 3 years
* Over 5,000,000 sq. ft. of mall space under development
* The top 3 modern retailers control over 750,000 sq. ft. of retail space
* Over 400,000 shoppers walk through their doors every week
* Growth in organized retailing on par with expectations and projections of the last 5
Years: on course to touch Rs. 35,000 crores (US$ 7 Billion) or more by 2009-11
Let us look at the evolution process:
Detailing reasons why Indian organized retail is at the brink of revolution, the IMAGES-
KSA report says that the last few years have seen rapid transformation in many areas and the
setting of scalable and profitable retail models across categories. Indian consumers are
rapidly evolving and accepting modern formats overwhelmingly. Retail Space is no more a
constraint for growth. India is on the radar of Global Retailers and suppliers / brands
worldwide are willing to partner with retailers here. Further, large Indian corporate groups
like Tata, Reliance, Raheja, ITC, Bombay Dyeing, Murugappa & Piramal Groups etc and
also foreign investors and private equity players are firming up plans to identify investment
opportunities in the Indian retail sector. The quantum of investments is likely to skyrocket as
the inherent attractiveness of the segment lures more and more investors to earn large profits.
Investments into the sector are estimated at INR 2000 - 2500 Crore in the next 2-3 years,
and over INR 20,000 Crore by end of 2011.
Few of India's top retailers are:
1. Big Bazaar-Pantaloons: Big Bazaar, a division of Pantaloon Retail (India) Ltd is already
India's biggest retailer. In the year 2003-04, it had revenue of Rs 658.31 crores & by 2010; it
is targeting revenue of Rs 8,800 Crore.
2. Food World: Food World in India is an alliance between the RPG group in India with
Dairy Farm International of the Jardine Matheson Group.
3. Trinethra: It is a supermarket chain that has predominant presence in the southern state
of Andhra Pradesh. Their turnover was Rs 78.8 Crore for the year 2002-03.
4. Apna Bazaar: It is a Rs 140-crore consumer co-operative society with a customer base of
over 12 lakh, plans to cater to an upwardly mobile urban population.
5. Margin Free: It is a Kerala based discount store, which is uniformly spread across 240
Margin Free franchisees in Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka.
Wholesale trading is another area, which has potential for rapid growth. German giant
Metro AG and South African Shoprite Holdings have already made headway in this
segment by setting up stores selling merchandise on a wholesale basis in Bangalore and
Mumbai respectively. These new-format cash-and-carry stores attract large volumes
from a sizeable number of retailers who do not have to maintain relationships with
multiple suppliers for all their needs.
INDIAN RETAIL IS MOVING INTO SECOND GEAR
1) FIRST GEAR:
* New retailers driving awareness
* High degree of fragmentation
* Real estate groups starting retail chains
* Consumer expecting 'value for money' as core value
2) SECOND GEAR:
(Meet customer expectations)
* Emergence of pure retailers
* Retailers getting multi-locational and multi-format
* Global retailers evincing interest in India
3) THIRD GEAR:
(Back end management)
* Category management
* Vendor partnership
* Stock turns
* Channel synchronization
* Consumer acquisition
* Customer relation's management
4) FOURTH GEAR:
* Aggressive rollout
* Organized retail acquitting significant share
* Beginning of cross-border movement
* Mergers and acquisitions
Hypermarket: It is the largest format in Indian retail so far is a one stop shop for the
modern Indian shopper.
Merchandise: food grocery to clothing to spots goods to books to stationery.
Space occupied: 50000 Sq .ft. and above.
Example: Pantaloon retail’s Big Bazaar, RPG’s Spencers (Giant).
Supermarket: A subdued version of a hypermarket.
Merchandise: Almost similar to that of a hypermarket but in relatively smaller
Space occupied: 5000 Sq. ft. or more.
SKUs: Around 10000.
Example: Nilgiris, Apna Bazaar, Trinethra.
Convenience store: A subdued version of a supermarket.
Merchandise: Groceries are predominantly sold.
Space occupied: Around 500 Sq. ft. to 3000 Sq. ft.
Example: stores located at the corners of the streets, Reliance Retail’s Fresh and
Department store: A retail establishment which specializes in selling a wide range of
products without a single prominent merchandise line and is usually a part of a retail chain.
Merchandise: Apparel, household accessories, cosmetics, gifts etc.
Space occupied: Around 10000 Sq. ft. – 30000 Sq. ft.
Example: Landmark Group’s LifeStyle, Trent India Ltd.’s Westside.
Discount store: Standard merchandise sold at lower prices with lower margins and higher
Merchandise: A variety of perishable/ non perishable goods.
Example: Viswapriya Group’s Subiksha, Piramal’s TruMart.
Specialty store: It consists of a narrow product line with deep assortment.
Merchandise: Depends on the stores
Example: Bata store deals only with footwear, RPG’s Music World, Crossword.
MBO’s: Multi Brand outlets, also known as Category Killers. These usually do well in busy
market places and Metros.
Merchandise: Offers several brads across a single product category.
Kirana stores: The smallest retail formats which are the highest in number (15 million
approx.) in India.
Merchandise: Mostly food and groceries.
Space occupied: 50 sq ft and even smaller ones exist.
Malls: The largest form of organized retailing today. Located mainly in metro cities, in
proximity to urban outskirts.
Merchandise: They lend an ideal shopping experience with an amalgamation of
product, service and entertainment, all under a common roof.
Space occupied: Ranges from 60,000 sq ft to 7, 00,000 sq ft.
The organized retail industry is growing at 25- 30 percentage and is expected to
reach the mark of 1, 00,000 crore INR by 2011 from the present figure of 35,000 crore INR
approx. With such a mouth watering figures the organized retailing has been attracting many
players and even persuading the existing retailers to expand and experiment with newer
formats. This can also be substantiated by looking the estimation of the organized retail
space to be around 72 million sq ft. by the end of 2009.
GROWTH STAGES IN INDIA
Due to the urban-rural divide, organized retail will first take place in metros and larger cities
and then in semi urban and rural regions. Thus, the country will witness multiple stages of
growth even with a low organized retail penetration. In the next 5 years, the organized retail
activity growth is likely to peak in the metros; however, it will still remain at an early growth
stage in the semi-urban and rural areas. The following diagram shows the organized retail
industry cycle with the bold line depicting larger cities and dashed lines representing smaller
cities and semi-urban areas:
• Introduction: Marks the beginning of organized retail, primarily in metros with limited
players and formats.
• Growth: Shows a market with rapid growth which is ready for retail; players announce
huge expansions, experiment with formats, set up supply chain and back-end for scaling up,
hire and train talent and use hygiene and ambience as their unique selling proposition (USP).
• Maturity: Growth reaches its peak; market is still growing but opportunities for new
entrants decrease. Organized formats become well accepted and discounting becomes a
• Decline: A high level of penetration is reached; industry has undergone consolidation and
is dominated by a few players. The window of opportunity becomes small.
Unlike the West, India is likely to have a shortened evolution cycle with rapid growth in the
coming years (similar to the growth story of China). Inspired by formats existing in the
developed countries, players are fast setting up all kinds of formats. The kind of growth that
the developed countries (USA and UK) had witnessed in 4 decades is being witnessed by
India only in a decade. The first mall in the US was set up only after more than 20 years of
retailing in the form of shopping centers. Lifestyle centers, specialty stores and multiplexes
came up in the US almost after 4 decades. Within 5 years of major activity in the organized
sector, specialty retailing is already gaining ground in India. The success of Indian retailers
will not be determined simply by emulating the West. A player will succeed in the long run
only if he keeps in mind the tastes and preferences of consumers and fulfils their needs. For
example, opening of large stores in the outskirts may not work in India due to low auto
density and inadequate public transport and infrastructure.
India is primarily a consumption driven economy. With booming sectors like IT/ITES, real
estate, financial services, etc, the country is witnessing both high affordability and
willingness to spend at present. Organized retail has considerably grown only in the last 3-4
years. It is believed that the organized retail industry is currently in a growth stage due to the
• Players are experimenting with formats, markets and products and are succeeding in almost
all new ventures
• There is room for more players and formats; large domestic and international players are
announcing new plans
• There is a shortage of trained manpower, which is being solved by hiring and training local
talent and employing people from related sectors, thereby creating a balance with expatriate
• Most players are tapping the value segment through super markets and hypermarkets, as
they have higher success rates.
ANALYSIS OF THE INDIAN RETAIL SECTOR
The Indian retail sector is highly fragmented with 97% of its business being run by the
unorganized retailers like the traditional family run stores and corner stores. The 3% share of
organized retail is quite low when compared even to the other emerging countries. The
organized retail however is at a very nascent stage though attempts are being made to
increase its proportion to 9-10% by the year 2010 bringing in a huge opportunity for
prospective new players. The sector is the largest source of employment after agriculture,
and has deep penetration into rural India generating more than 10% of India's GDP.
THE EVOLUTION OF THE INDIAN CUSTOMER
In the past few years the whole concept of shopping has been altered in terms of format and
consumer buying behavior. With the increasing urbanization, the Indian consumer is
emerging as more trend-conscious. There has also been a shift from price considerations to
designs and quality as there is a greater focus on looking and feeling good (apparel as well as
fitness). At the same time, the Indian consumer is not beguiled by retail products which are
high on price but commensurately low on value or functionality. However, it can be said that
the Indian consumer is a paradox, where the discount shopper loyalty takes a backseat over
Indians have grown richer and thus spending more on vehicles, phones and eating out in
restaurants. The spending is focused more outside the homes, unlike in other Asian countries
where consumers have tended to spend more on personal items as they grow richer.
Spending on luxury goods have increased twice as fast with 2/3 of India's population is
under 35, consumer demand is clearly growing. The mall mania has bought in a whole new
breed of modern retail formats across the country catering to every need of the value-seeking
Indian consumer. An average Indian would see a mall as a perfect weekend getaway with
family offering them entertainment, leisure, food, shopping all less than one roof.
Indian consumer is also witnessing some changes in its demographics with a large working
population being under the age group of 24-35, there has been an increasing number of
nuclear families, increase in working women population and emerging opportunities in the
service sector during the past few years which has been the key growth driver of the
organized retail sector in India. The emergence of a larger middle and upper middle classes
and the substantial increase in their disposable income has changed the nature of shopping in
India from need based to lifestyle dictated. The self-employed segment has replaced the
employed salaried segment as the mainstream market, thus resulting in an increasing
consumption of productivity goods, especially mobile phones and 2 - 4 wheeler vehicles.
There is also an easier acceptance of luxury and an increased willingness to experiment with
the mainstream fashion, resulting in an increased willingness towards disposability and
casting out from apparels to cars to mobile phones to consumer durables. Indians spend over
USD 30,000 a year (in PPP terms) on conspicuous consumption that represents 2.8% of the
entire population (which is approx 30 million people) making it the 4th largest economy in
PPP terms next only to USA, Japan and China. Facilities like credit friendliness, availability
of cheap finance and a drop in interest rates have changed consumer markets. Capital
expenditure (jewelry, homes, and cars) has shifted to becoming redefined as consumer
revenue expenditure, in addition to consumer durables and loan credit purchases.
Trends in Present Retail Market
New Product Categories:
For a long time, the corner grocery store was the only choice available to the consumer,
especially in the urban areas. This is slowly giving way to international formats of retailing.
The traditional food and grocery segment has seen the emergence of supermarkets/grocery
chains (Food World, Nilgiris, and Apna Bazaar), convenience stores (ConveniO, HP
Speedmart) and fast-food chains (McDonalds, Dominos).
It is the non-food segment; however that foray has been made into a variety of new
sectors. These include lifestyle/fashion segments (Shoppers' Stop, Globus, LifeStyle,
Westside), apparel/accessories (Pantaloon, Levis, Reebok), books/music/gifts (Archies,
Music World, Crosswords, Landmark), appliances and consumer durables (Viveks, Jainsons,
Vasant & Co.), drugs and pharmacy (Health and Glow, Apollo).
Increasing competition in the retail market:
New entrants such as Reliance, Bharti Enterprises and the AV Birla group will compete
against well-established retailers, such as Pantaloon Retail, Shoppers’ stop, Trent, Spencer’s
and Lifestyle stores. Foreign retailers are keenly evaluating the Indian market and
identifying partners to forge an alliance with in areas currently permitted by regulations.
With an estimated initial investment of USD 750 million, Reliance is planning to launch a
nationwide chain of hyper marts, supermarkets, discount stores, department stores,
convenience stores and specialty stores. These 5,500 stores will be located in 800 cities and
towns in India.
Increase in Private Labels:
With the emergence of organized retail and modern retail formats, private labels have
been gaining significance. They enhance the profitability levels of product categories,
increase retailers’ negotiation powers and create consumer loyalty. More retailers are
introducing their own brands in all categories including Food & Groceries, apparel,
accessories, and footwear. These own brands also do not have to manage intermediaries
since retailers maintain oversight of the supply chain.
The label penetration is in a huge rise. Private Label penetration has been on a rise. It
is mainly growing among FMCG products in most supermarkets with groceries accounting
Expanding to Tier II and III cities:
Indian retailers are planning to extend operations into Tier II and Tier III cities as
heightened IT off shoring activity in these locations have increased consumers’ disposable
income. The population in these cities is typically well educated and willing to purchase
goods and services. Some major retailers, like Globus, Reliance Retail and Pantaloon, have
already begun building a retail presence in Tier III cities before many retailers have finalized
their Tier II retail operations.
Foray into Retail Agri-Business:
India’s most prestigious business houses and global retailers are planning to enter
retail agri-business. Market entrants plan to invest in the entire value chain, moving goods
“from the farm to the fridge at home.” Viewed as India’s next “Sunrise Sector,” retailers are
employing contract farming as a means of boosting their ventures. Contract farming enables
farmers to access land, manpower and farming skill without having to purchase land. Of the
total Cultivable land of 400 million acres in India, contract farming represents 7 million
acres thus indicating a tremendous opportunity. For pure corporate contracts between
farmers and companies, only 2, 00,000 acres are used.
Experimenting with formats:
Selecting the right retail format is essential in modern retailing. The
difference between urban and rural customers is one of the reasons why multiple formats are
required in India. Local conditions and insights into buying-behavior shape the format
choice. No single format will be suitable for an all India strategy and selecting the relevant
format is the key success factor.
Technology in Retail
Over the years as the consumer demand increased and the retailers geared up to meet this
increase, technology evolved rapidly to support this growth. The hardware and software
tools that have now become almost essential for retailing can be into 2 broad categories.
Customer Interfacing Systems:
Bar Coding and Scanners
Point of sale systems use scanners and bar coding to identify an item, use pre-stored data to
calculate the cost and generate the total bill for a client. Tunnel Scanning is a new concept
where the consumer pushes the full shopping cart through an electronic gate to the point of
sale. In a matter of seconds, the items in the cart are hit with laser beams and scanned. All
that the consumer has to do is to pay for the goods.
Payment through credit cards has become quite widespread and this enables a fast and easy
payment process. Electronic cheque conversion, a recent development in this area, processes
a cheque electronically by transmitting transaction information to the retailer and consumer's
bank. Rather than manually process a cheque, the retailer voids it and hands it back to the
consumer along with a receipt, having digitally captured and stored the image of the cheque,
which makes the process very fast.
Internet is also rapidly evolving as a customer interface, removing the need of a consumer
physically visiting the store.
Operation Support Systems:
Various ERP vendors have developed retail-specific systems which help in integrating all
the functions from warehousing to distribution, front and back office store systems and
merchandising. An integrated supply chain helps the retailer in maintaining his stocks,
getting his supplies on time, preventing stock-outs and thus reducing his costs, while
servicing the customer better.
The rise of loyalty programs, mail order and the Internet has provided retailers with real
access to consumer data. Data warehousing & mining technologies offers retailers the tools
they need to make sense of their consumer data and apply it to business. This, along with the
various available CRM (Customer Relationship Management) Systems, allows the retailers
to study the purchase behavior of consumers in detail and grow the value of individual
consumers to their businesses.
Advanced Planning and Scheduling Systems:
APS systems can provide improved control across the supply chain, all the way from raw
material suppliers’ right through to the retail shelf. These APS packages complement
existing (but often limited) ERP packages. They enable consolidation of activities such as
long term budgeting, monthly forecasting, weekly factory scheduling and daily distribution
scheduling into one overall planning process using a single set of data
The major reasons behind the development of new trends are:
Scalable and profitable Retail models are well established for most of the categories
Rapid Evolution of New-age Young Indian Consumers
Retail Space is no more a constraint for growth
Partnering among Brands, retailers, franchisees, investors and malls
India is on the radar of Global Retailer Suppliers.
Challenges in Retail
The following are the key areas that may pose a threat to those retail companies that ignore
the impacts of giving less importance to manage their demand and supply: -
Forecasting and Inventory Management for JIT replenishments of products.
Peak Season Demand Handling.
Order Management in case of retailers with multiple outlets.
Warehouse Management in case of multiple outlets.
Introducing new products.
Handling variety of items.
Proposed Supply Chain Strategies for Retail Industry
Supply Chain Strategies in Retail
Bulk Breaking: Orders can be done in smaller lots with a good understanding with the
supplier. This can be achieved by following ways: -
Spatial Convenience: Strategically locating the outlet with distribution
networks and warehouses located proximally.
Supplier holds inventory.
Vendor Managed Inventory: In this case, the vendor himself is given the responsibility to
handle the inventory. A space for the vendor is rented in the outlet, and he takes care of the
shelves and the space. It is a 2-way agreement wherein the vendor gets the space to market
his product by interacting one-to-one with the customers.
Point of Sale Information System: As soon as one stock-keeping unit moves out of the store
when purchased by a customer, the information readily flows to the supplier.
He is given access to the inventory database.
A re-order point can be imposed based on consumption pattern and the supplier is
asked to fill the shelf upon inventory reaching the re-order point.
SRM - Supplier Relationship Management:
Relationship with supplier should not be a marriage of convenience. Supplier has to
act in ways more than what is required.
By providing special offers, discounts and incentives, the supplier savors the
relationship. This also serves as a promotion strategy for the outlet.
Competitive Areas of Importance
Stock filling is taken care of at both customer end (end product) and at the end of shelves at
the shop. Reaching the customer at the right time and constant check on stocks and making
sure right quantity is ordered at the right time.
Safe and reliable transport at as much low price as possible.
Constant contact with distribution teams (trucks, trains, etc.) and track where
Partnership with transportation firms so that cost and transport can be shared if the
shipment does not occupy the whole truck space.
Procurement: (Vendor’s side points to take care)
Information sharing and updating plan change
Combine vendors by minimizing transportation cost
Choose vendors in proximity
Optimum lot size taking vendors into confidence
Line should run smoothly without delays due to ordering and transportation (fulfillment and
logistics have to be met first).
Model in Detail
Integrated Demand Management:
The sales in the outlet is kept track of bill after bill hour after hour.
Store register work is made online and paper work is done with.
Forecasting made with data on past consumption and present market trend.
Optional forecasting is made in case of seasonal requirements.
Periodic offers and incentives are made available to the customers to generate
Tips for Controlling Retail Inventory
Part of the answer to the "buying problem" is inventory control. In fact, the biggest reason
retail businesses fail is that they lack inventory control. However, when employed
aggressively against competitors, effective management of your inventory can be a lethal
weapon. Imagine doubling your inventory turnover rate (certainly not far-fetched with
proper control): you could sell product at half the normal margin and still gross the same
amount of dollars in a given time period. Inventory control has been used to take down many
Like much of the new technology available to business owners, Management Information
Systems (MIS) is still evolving, and along the way it becomes both more sophisticated and
less expensive. MIS tools can be implemented to gain a significant advantage over
competitors. However, it is critical that you understand the uses and goals of an inventory
management system before implementing. Possibly the best examples of inventory
management come from big retailers. To put it simply: Kmart neglected inventory control
and failed, and Wal-Mart concentrated on becoming the leading edge of inventory control
and is now one of the world's largest companies.
It is a common misconception among small retailers that only industry giants like Wal-Mart
can use MIS effectively. Sam Walton himself began as a small retailer, but one of his most
advantageous assets was his deep understanding of inventory control's importance.
MIS is commonly regarded as a daunting system to implement by those with limited
experience in this highly technical area, however it is critical to understand exactly what
MIS can accomplish. Although internal hires are available, MIS is made greatly accessible to
the small retailer by consulting companies. The basic goal of a point-of-purchase inventory
control system is to provide information on profitability, status, and rate of sale for every
item a retailer stocks, instantly. These metrics can then be used to improve inventory
turnover and return on investment.
Once an MIS infrastructure is established, it makes sense for the retailer to integrate vendors
into the system. Vendors are subject to an incentive to keep their inventory on store shelves,
and systems are available which provide vendors with sales and stock information directly
from the point of sale system. Providing your vendors with timely information and making
them responsible for maintaining inventory your overall efficiency is improved as your own
workload is diminished. The net impact on your business is increased turnover rates and
fewer runs on inventory.
Anything that results in making the chain between Vendors, Retailers and Customers more
efficient also results in additional profit. FRID, an example of an electronic recognition
system, enables tracking of items via a computer chip embedded in the product or
packaging, which is detected at various stages along the distribution process. Product
information obtained in this way is uploaded instantly to the inventory control system, which
reduces the time spent in receiving and stocking and allows for a more efficient shipping
process. It is imperative for retailers to be aware of inventory performance and its effects on
Inventory control is not, however, the answer to all questions. Inventory controls systems
can tell you how the inventory in stock is performing. It doesn't tell you those new products
you should carry. Buying is a great area of opportunity, especially for the small retailer who
is close to customers and much more responsive to their demands than is the national chain.
Of course, inventory control is not the ultimate solution to retailers' problems. For example,
inventory control tells you what products are performing well, but it can't tell you what new
products to stock. Inventory control is a great way for small retailers to act like one of the
big guys, and gain an advantage over other small competitors.
Operations are classified into 3 functions below:
Inventory & Credit Management
Management is creative problem solving. This creative problem solving is accomplished
through five functions of management
The intended result is the use of an organization's resources in a way that accomplishes its
mission and objectives.
Planning is the ongoing process of developing the business' mission and objectives and
determining how they will be accomplished. Planning includes both the broadest view of the
organization, e.g., its mission, and the narrowest, e.g., a tactic for accomplishing a specific
Organizing is establishing the internal organizational structure of the organization. The
focus is on division, coordination, and control of tasks and the flow of information within the
organization. It is in this function that managers distribute authority to jobholders.
Staffing is filling and keeping filled with qualified people all positions in the business.
Recruiting, hiring, training, evaluating and compensating are the specific activities included
in the function. In the family business, staffing includes all paid and unpaid positions held by
family members including the owner/operators.
Directing is influencing people's behavior through motivation, communication, group
dynamics, leadership and discipline. The purpose of directing is to channel the behavior of
all personnel to accomplish the organization's mission and objectives while simultaneously
helping them accomplish their own career objectives.
Controlling is a four-step process of establishing performance standards based on the firm's
objectives, measuring and reporting actual performance, comparing the two, and taking
corrective or preventive action as necessary.
Managerial levels and hierarchy
The management of a large organization may have three levels:
1. Senior management (or "top management" or "upper management")
2. Middle management
3. Low-level management, such as supervisors or team-leaders
5. Rank and File
Require an extensive knowledge of management roles and skills.
They have to be very aware of external factors such as markets.
Their decisions are generally of a long-term nature
Their decisions are made using analytic, directive, conceptual and/or
They are responsible for strategic decisions.
They have to chalk out the plan and see that plan may be effective in the future.
They are executive in nature.
Mid-level managers have a specialized understanding of certain managerial tasks.
They are responsible for carrying out the decisions made by top-level management.
This level of management ensures that the decisions and plans taken by the other two
are carried out.
Lower-level managers' decisions are generally short-term ones
Foreman / lead hand
They are people who have direct supervision over the working force in office factory,
sales field or other workgroup or areas of activity.
Rank and File
The responsibilities of the persons belonging to this group are even more restricted
and more specific than those of the foreman.
In marketing, a product is anything that can be offered to a market that might satisfy a want
or need. In retailing, products are called merchandise. It is an art and science of displaying
merchandise within store, it is about implementing effective design, ideas to educate
customer, create desire and finally increase store traffic and sales volume.
Home Lien Items
Men, Ladies and Kids wear
Inventory & Credit Operations (Using JETRMS Software)
Inventory Management and Inventory Control must be designed to meet the dictates of the
marketplace and support the company's strategic plan. The many changes in market
demand, new opportunities due to worldwide marketing, global sourcing of materials, and
new manufacturing technology, means many companies need to change their Inventory
Management approach and change the process for Inventory Control.
Despite the many changes that companies go through, the basic principles of Inventory
Management and Inventory Control remain the same. Some of the new approaches and
techniques are wrapped in new terminology, but the underlying principles for
accomplishing good Inventory Management and Inventory activities have not changed.
The Inventory Management system and the Inventory Control Process provides information
to efficiently manage the flow of materials, effectively utilize people and equipment,
coordinate internal activities, and communicate with customers. Inventory Management
and the activities of Inventory Control do not make decisions or manage operations; they
provide the information to Managers who make more accurate and timely decisions to
manage their operations.
The basic building blocks for the Inventory Management system and Inventory Control
Sales Forecasting or Demand Management
Sales and Operations Planning
Material Requirements Planning
The emphases on each area will vary depending on the company and how it operates, and
what requirements are placed on it due to market demands. Each of the areas above
will need to be addressed in some form or another to have a successful program of
Inventory Management and Inventory Control.
JETRMS Software is classified in to 6 operations, which controls the Inventory, Credit and
Inventory & Credit Operations
Employee Management System
Vendor Management System
Security Management System
Employee Management System
Daily Sales Report
Total Discount & Revenue Reports
Product Pricing Decision
Vendor Management System
Inventory Management System
Purchasing Order Management
Invoice Purchasing Order System
CHECK POINT SYSTEM
• Soft checks
• Hard checks
7 P’s of Services
1st P: PRODUCT
Product- refers to the merchandise i.e. the range of clothes.
Supplementary services -include a component of fashion, life style and Ambient
shopping as an addition to the core product.
Today, customers buy experiences and not brands or products.
2nd P: PRICING
Cost plus price and Percentage method pricing:
Most widely used technique to price apparels.
Ex: - COLOR PLUS and IN-HOUSE brands like those of SHOPPER’S STOP or
WESTSIDE use this technique.
3rd P: PLACE
Apparel Retailing Business is driven by one crucial factor:
4th P: PROMOTION
In-store Visual merchandising
5th P: PEOPLE
Every second a customer spends inside the store has to be viewed as Moment of
“People” is that aspect of the marketing mix which adds tangibility to the service of
creating an experience
6th P: PROCESSES
7th P: PHYSICAL EVIDENCE
Managing Appearance of the building & Location
Maintaining Temperature, Music, Lighting and Fragrance inside the store
Availability of services like Prams, Wheel Chair, Valet Parking etc
Stylish Stocking of Merchandise
FUTURE TREND: SCOPE OF 24hr RETAILING
The concept of 24hr. retailing in India has been present only in very limited formats like the
pharmaceuticals (Apollo) and fuel retail outlets (H.P, Reliance etc.) and the other retail
formats used to operate only till the early hours of the night. But because of the changing
lifestyles and the buying habits of the consumers the retailers have been extending their
operating hours till late nights.
Most of the Indian retail formats though capable of operating their formats round the clock
do not choose to do so because of the non feasibility of the idea at present taking in
conjunction the customers’ readiness. For instance if any of the hyper market or supermarket
is functioning during the night the retailer has to bear the extra costs of electricity, labor and
maintenance if the number of footfalls are less very low during the late nights which
otherwise would be profitable to him. Anyways, the shopping time of the consumer is
considerably increasing. Moreover, in India most of the retailing is all about food and
groceries. It might not be a rational prediction that all the consumers will step into the retail
outlet at midnights to buy food and groceries.
This problem can be overcome by implementing the idea in places, which have a floating
population even during the nights like railway stations and bus stations. However with the
upcoming culture of malls and the changing lifestyles of the people one can design a small
part of the store or a mall for a new 24/7 retail format which consists of the essential
products like medicines, fruits and vegetables, groceries and some other FMCG products and
test market it. Once if the sales start showing some consistent positive figures and if the
crowd increases then the store can come in a bigger way to reach out to their customers.
The other option for trying the concept of 24hr retailing is that the retailer can have a mobile
outlet, which can place itself in the areas that have substantial night traffic for the sales to
happen. And once the people are to the 24hr shopping then the retail plans can be altered
Rural Vs Urban Retail Trends
India's largely rural population has also caught the eye of retailers looking for new areas of
growth. ITC launched the country's first rural mall ‘ Chaupal Sagar’, offering a diverse
product range from FMCG to electronics appliance to automobiles, attempting to provide
farmers a one-stop destination for all of their needs. There has been yet another initiative by
the DCM Sriram Group called the ‘ Hariyali Bazaar’, that has initially started off by
providing farm related inputs and services but plans to introduce the complete shopping
basket in due course. Other corporate bodies include Escorts, and Tata Chemicals (with Tata
Kisan Sansar) setting up agri-stores to provide products/services targeted at the farmer in
order to tap the vast rural market.
Commenting on the Rural Retailing chapter in INDIA RETAIL REPORT 2005, Mr. Adi B.
Godrej, Chairman, The Godrej Group (India's one of the leading corporate majors) said that
his group had also launched the concept of agri-stores named 'Adhaar', which served as one-
stop shops for farmers selling agricultural products such as fertilisers & animal feed and also
providing farmers knowledge on how to effectively utilise these products. "There are 8
stores already operating in Maharashtra and Gujarat and further expansion is very much on
the cards. He added.
FDI could indeed do a lot in this sector as entry of international retailers would bring in the
required expertise to set the supply chain in place which would result in elimination of
wastage, better prices and quality for consumers and higher income for farmers besides of
course farm produce retailing getting a facelift, said Mr. Godrej.
Tapping the fresh farm produce sector, the group plans to take its recently launched retail
concept – Nature's Basket - to newer cities steadily. Godrej Group's Agro and Food division,
Godrej Agrovet Ltd. (GAVL) operates the format, selling a variety of vegetables, fruits and
herbs - both local and exotic thereby introducing the concept of 'farm-to-plate' to urbanites.
Godrej plans to open four more Nature's Basket stores in Mumbai before taking them
national. Setting up cost of a store is about INR 5-10 million and per stores sales are
expected in the range of INR 30- Rs 50 million a year.
Interestingly, the world's largest corporation, Wal-mart, also had its roots in rural America.
Unlike many other retailers who started from urban centres and then trickled down to rural
areas, Wal-mart had started from rural areas and then came closer to cities over a period of
time. Many more such concepts are likely to be tested in the future as marketers and retailers
begin to acknowledge that the rural consumer is more than a ‘poor cousin' of the urban
counterpart. The IMAGES KSA Report avers that these concepts are likely to go a long way
in bringing a huge untapped population within the purview of organized retailing, thereby,
increasing the size of the total market
The above chart makes it clearly evident why the rural retail market has been attracting the
big giants to invest in it.
The urban retailing has been experimenting with many formats like the supermarkets,
hypermarkets, specialty stores, multi branded outlets etc. and of latest it seems to be
embracing the trend of mall culture. It is a rich man's world too, with multi-screen cinemas,
restaurants, games and branded shops - well out of the reach of many of the country's one
billion people. But India's middle-classes widely traveled and with deep pockets, are
flocking to malls.
India's organized retail industry accounts for just 3% of the country's total retail sales,
though it is poised to grow by 97% per year in the next five years to a staggering $24bn.
Fuelling this growth are India's sprawling shopping malls, which are increasingly
challenging High Street stores, corner shops and village markets alike. Just five years ago,
there were shopping arcades but no malls. Today there are nearly 100 big shopping malls in
the country, more than half of them in Delhi and Mumbai alone. And in two years there will
be 360 malls across the country. More than 20 are in various stages of development in Delhi
and Mumbai. Among them is India's biggest shopping mall, Ambi, which is being built in
Gurgaon, near Delhi. Spread over 3.2 million square feet, it is set to become a virtual town,
where multi-screen cinemas, recreational facilities for adults and children, food courts and
branded outlets will fill the space. It will have exclusive showrooms of international brands,
where, according to the developers, customers will have to shop by prior appointment.
Analysts comment that this is just the beginning and this is going to experience a ‘sea
change’ once the platform is opened up for the FDI.
Backdrop: then and now:
•Self reliant mindset; closed economy •Liberal, open economy; entry of MNCs;
high entrepreneurial spirit
•High import tariff; high excise duty;
low per capita incomes.
•Reduced excise duty; low tax; high
disposable income; affordable price
•International brands unheard of; not
much variety available.
•Availability of variety
•Shopping: a task •Shopping: an experience
•Savings oriented; high interest rates on small
•Policy direction: more consumption oriented
Changing retail scenario
•USD 230b total; 3% organized modern formats
Organized retailing, then: garments, footwear and watches
Organized retailing now: expanding to food, grocery, jewelry, entertainment,
cosmetics, home furnishing etc.
Socio-economic factors (USA 1960s, China 1990s) fuelling consumer spending
USA: Baby boomers attained spending age; strong economic growth (9-10%); shift
in employment from primary to manufacturing; mass migration from rural areas to
cities; “ready to splurge”
China: Strong economic growth (10+%); significant unpicking investments and
foreign fund inflows
•Shift to organized formats (from kiranashops to hypermarkets)
•Capital no longer a constraint –easy loans
•Availability of quality real estate
Easing land regulations and releasing more land for retail; investment in real estate
by organized players is on the up
100% FDI under automatic route for real estate development -townships over 25
acres of land or commercial/retail development on floor space of over 500,000 sq. ft.
A glimpse into future
•Massive expansion ahead
–More floor space, penetration into Tier II cities
–Experimentation with models:
Hypermarket Big Bazaar, Giant, Spencer
Malls Sahara, AnsalPlaza, Crossroads
Department Stores Shopper's Stop, Pantaloon,
ApnaBazaar, Food world, Nilgiris
Specialitystores Bata, Titan, Tanishq, Raymond,
Hallmark, Mc Donald, Pizza Hut
Entertainment PVR, Adlabs, Inox
•Organized formats booming in the South
Chennai, Bangalore, Hyderabad
Lower real estate prices
•12m retail outlets; most of them <500 sq. ft.
•India: 6000 grocery outlets per million populations
•Increasing sales through modern trade
•79% of shopping done by women
Men still have strong influence on shopping decision (46% of cases)
•Top 5 (organized) retail categories—by value
Clothing; food; consumer durables; footwear; furniture
•Food, jewelry and beauty & personal care represent only a small percentage (1%, 2%, 2%
Watches (40%), footwear (25%) and clothing (13.8%)
Perspectives: food and grocery
Busy lifestyle; pre-packaged, ready-to-eat preferred
Changed mindset from “packaged is stale”to “packaged is quality and hygienic”
The Eating Out Effect
Consumer spending is 40% on foods and grocery, but retail penetration is only 0.5%
Fastest growth prospect
Malls also drive growth
•Future format: towards hypermarket
•50% of Indian youth are fashion conscious of which 37% are highly fashion conscious
Untapped segments like maternity wear, lingerie and school wear will be exploited
Going out and outdoor wear; peer acceptance
•Future format: Specialty stores for the upper crest, private labels and discount stores for
Increased nuclear families and housing
Convenience (one stop shop)
•Future format: Departmental store
A Recession is a contraction phase of the business cycle.
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is the official agency in charge
of declaring that the economy is in a state of recession.
They define recession as:
“Significant decline in economic activity lasting more than a few months, which is normally
visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail
For this reason, the official designation of recession may not come until after we are
in a recession for six months or longer.
What Causes Recession?
An economy typically expands for 6-10 years and tends to go into a recession for
about six months to 2 years.
A recession normally takes place when consumers loose confidence in the growth of
the economy and spend less.
This leads to a decreased demand for goods and services, which in turn leads to a
decrease in production, lay-offs and a sharp rise in unemployment.
Investors spend less as they fear stocks values will fall and thus stock markets fall
on negative sentiment.
• US Crisis Hits India
US faced major crisis because of –
• Sub prime mortgage crisis (home loan defaults)
• Rising oil prices at $100 a barrel
• Global Inflation
• High unemployment rates
• A declining dollar value
All this slowed down the growth of the economy and as the GDP growth rate fell to 2%,
recession set in.
Low GDP growth indicating Recession in US
Impact on India
A slowdown in the US economy is bad news for India because:
• Indian companies have major outsourcing deals from the US
• India's exports to the US have also grown substantially over the years.
• Indian companies with big tickets deals in the US are seeing their profit margins
Anatomy of the economic depression in India
• More people have sold the shares in the Indian share market than they bought in the
recent weeks. This has added to the fall of sensex to lower points.
• Foreign investors have pulled out from stock markets leading to heavy losses in
stocks and mutual funds
• Stock broking houses are laying-off people
• Because of such uncertainty many people have started saving money in banks rather
FDI IN RETAIL
Global retailers have already been sourcing from India; the opening up of the retail sector to
the FDI has been fraught with political challenges. With politicians arguing that the global
retailers will put thousands of small local players and fledging domestic chains out of
business. The only opening in the retail sector so far has been to allow 51% foreign stakes in
single brand consumer stores, private labels, high tech items/ items requiring specialized
after sales service, medical and diagnostic items and items sourced from Indian small sector
(manufactured with technology provided by the foreign collaborations).
Parties supporting the FDI suggest that the FDI in retail should be opened in a gradual
phased manner, such that it can promote competition and contribute to the growth of the
Indian economy. The impact of the FDI would benefit the end user of the consumer to a
great extent and will help to generate a decent amount of employment as more and more
entrepreneurs would be coming forward to invest and taste the new generation in retail
marketing. The opening of FDI should be designed in such a way that many sectors -
including agriculture, food processing, manufacturing, packaging and logistics would reap
benefits. It can be said that this investment boom could change the face of Indian retail by
offering quality goods at lower prices to the consumers. In addition to this, the presence of
global retailers will further enhance exports from India, as they would also source Indian
goods for their international outlets in a big way leading to a remarkable increase in Indian
The various advantages of allowing FDI in retail are:
• Inflow of investment and funds.
• Improvement in the quality of employment.
• Generating more employment.
• Increased local sourcing.
• Provide better value to end consumers.
• Investments and improvement in the supply chains and warehousing.
• Franchising opportunities for local entrepreneurs.
• Growth of infrastructure.
• Increased efficiency.
• Cost reduction.
• Implementation of IT in retail.
• Stimulate infant industries and other supporting industries.
And the possible drawbacks of allowing FDI in retail are:
• Would give rise to cut-throat competition rather than promoting incremental
• Promoting cartels and creating monopoly.
• Increase in the real estate prices.
• Marginalize domestic entrepreneurs.
• The financial strength of foreign players would displace the unorganized players.
• Absence of proper regulatory guidelines would induce unfair trade practices like
SEGMENTS OF INDIAN RETAIL
The structure of Indian retail is developing rapidly with shopping malls becoming
increasingly common in the large cities and development plans being projected at 150 new
shopping malls by 2008. However, the traditional formats like hawkers, grocers and
tobacconist shops continue to co-exist with the modern formats of retailing. Modern retailing
has helped the companies to increase the consumption of their products for example: Indian
consumer would normally consume the rice sold at the nearby kiranas for daily use. With the
introduction of organized retail, it has been noticed that the sale of basmati rice has gone up
by four times than it was a few years back; as a superior quality rice (Basmati) is now
available at almost the same price as the normal rice at a local kirana Thus, the way a
product is displayed and promoted influences its sales. If the consumption continues to grow
this way it can be said that the local market would go through a metamorphoses of a change
and the local stores would soon become the things of the past or restricted to last minute
Food and grocery retail:
The food business in India is largely unorganized adding up to barely Rs. 40,000 crore, with
other large players adding another 50% to that. The All India food consumption is close to
Rs. 900,000 crore, with the total urban consumption being around Rs.330, 000crore. This
means that aggregate revenues of large food players is currently only 5% of the total Indian
market, and around 15-20% of total urban food consumption. Most food is sold in the local
`wet' market, vendors, roadside push cart sellers or tiny kirana stores.
According to McKinsey report, the share of an Indian household’s spends on food is one of
the highest in the world, with 48% of income being spent on food and beverages.
The ready-mades and western outfits are growing at 40-45% annually, as the market teems
up with international brands and new entrants entering this segment creating an Rs.500crore
markets for the premium-grooming segment. The past few years has seen the sector aligning
itself with global trends with retailing companies like Shoppers' stop and Crossroads
entering the fray to entice the middle class. However, it is estimated that this segment would
grow to Rs. 300 crore in the next three years.
Gems and Jewellery retail:
The gems and jewellery market is the key emerging area; accounting for a high proportion of
retail spends. India is the largest consumer of gold in the world with an estimated annual
consumption of 1000 tones, considering actual imports and recycled gold. The market for
jewellery is estimated as upwards of Rs. 65,000 crores.
The pharma retailing is estimated at about Rs. 30,000 crore, with 15% of the 51 lakh retail
stores in India being chemists. A few corporate who have already forayed into this segment
include Dr More pen (with Life spring and soon to be launched Tango), Medicine shop,
Apollo pharmacies, 98.4 from Global Health line Pvt Ltd, and the recently launched CRS
Health from SAK Industries. In the south, RPG group's Health & Glow is already in this
category, though it is not a pure play pharma retailer but more in the health and beauty care
The size of the Indian music industry is estimated at Rs.1100 crore of which about 36percent
is consumed by the pirated market and organized music retailing constitutes about 14
percent, equivalent to Rs.150 crore.
The book industry is estimated at over Rs. 3,000 crore out of which organized retail accounts
for only 7% (at Rs.210 crore). This segment is seen to be emerging with text and curriculum
books accounting to about 50% of the total sales. The gifting habit in India is catching on
fast with books enjoying a significant share, thus expecting this sector to grow by 15%
Consumer durables retail:
The consumer durables market can be stratified into consumer electronics comprising of
TV sets, audio systems, VCD players and others; and appliances like washing machines,
microwave ovens, air conditioners (A/Cs). The existing size of this sector stands at an
estimated USD 4.5 Billion with organized retailing being at 5%
Segment wise share in organized retail:
FUTURE OUTLOOK AND CHALLENGES
At least 2 - 2.5 Million additional direct jobs are likely to be created in the next 5 years.
Hyper-competition is expected to set in by 2009-11as the footprint of the top-5 players starts
significant overlapping in top 20 - 30 towns. According to Assoc ham, the overall retail
market would grow by 36 per cent with the organized sector expected to register three-fold
growth to Rs 15,000 crore by 2009 The total size of the market is also expected to increase
to Rs 14, 79,000 crore from the current level of Rs 5, 88,000 crore.
The Big Bazaars of India know God is in retail. Analysts swear by their stated corporate
ambitions, promising growth potential and soaring performance graphs. Yet, indicators
suggest that we are far from being declared as the tourism destination for retail therapy.
The industry is facing a severe shortage of talented professionals, especially at the middle-
management level. Most Indian retail players are under serious pressure to make their supply
chains more efficient in order to deliver the levels of quality and service that consumers are
demanding. Long intermediation chains would increase the costs by 15%. Lack of adequate
infrastructure with respect to roads, electricity, cold chains and ports has further led to the
impediment of a pan-India network of suppliers. Due to these constraints, retail chains have
to resort to multiple vendors for their requirements, thereby, raising costs and prices.
The available talent pool does not back retail sector as the sector has only recently emerged
from its nascent phase. Further, retailing is yet to become a preferred career option for most
of India's educated class that has chosen sectors like IT, BPO and financial services. Even
though the government is attempting to implement a uniform value-added tax across states,
the system is currently plagued with differential tax rates for various states leading to
increased costs and complexities in establishing an effective distribution network.
Stringent labor laws govern the number of hours worked and minimum wages to be paid
leading to limited flexibility of operations and employment of part-time employees.
Further, multiple clearances are required by the same company for opening new outlets
adding to the costs incurred and time taken to expand presence in the country. The retail
sector does not have 'industry' status yet making it difficult for retailers to raise finance from
banks to fund their expansion plans. Government restrictions on the FDI are leading to an
absence of foreign players resulting into limited exposure to best practices.
Non- availability of government land and zonal restrictions has made it difficult to find a
good real estate in terms of location and size. Also lack of clear ownership titles and high
stamp duty has resulted in disorganized nature of transactions.
In spite of all these drawbacks, the future of retail in India is bright, mainly because of the
untapped market potential here and saturated markets elsewhere. The retailers surely have to
come up with innovative marketing and designing concepts in order to be profitable in India.
A research by CRISIL has predicted that the penetration in the organized retail would be
around 10% by the end of 2011. As calculated in the table below, this would require an
investment to the tune of Rs 52 billion. This is arrived at by assuming a leased model of
operation and does not include the cost of owning real estate. The estimate includes cost of
furnishing, loss funding and working capital requirements (although retail is ideally a
negative working capital business, working capital has been taken into account considering
the early stage of business for players).
In the long run, only a few players will dominate. Competition will intensify and the industry
will witness consolidation. Once foreign direct investment (FDI) is permitted in the sector,
India will see the entry of more global giants. When this happens, there will be rapid
consolidation in few verticals. Among international players, lifestyle and home
I can put the issues confronting the Indian retail industry in the following table:
Meanwhile, existing key retailers like Pantaloon, RPG, Shoppers. Stop, Trent, Piramyd, etc
are trying to capture a large market share though new markets, multiple verticals, formats
and larger stores. Most players started their retail operations in larger cities. With increasing
competition and multiple players catering to same catchments, players are entering smaller
cities in order to gain a first mover advantage and grow, as it will give them a larger
customer base and higher share of loyal customers. The share of these cities as a percentage
of organized retail has been growing over the years; however, it still forms a small share of
the organized retail pie.
Although store sizes differ according to the city and the catchments, there has been an
overall increase in the store sizes of large retailers. This clearly indicates the growing
demand for organized retail and the efforts put by retailers to be a part of the retail growth
story. Players such as Pantaloon, Shoppers Stop, RPG, Lifestyle and Pyramid have
announced larger stores with sizes ranging between 60,000 and 100,000 square feet.
However, these stores are smaller when compared with international standards. In most
developed countries, there are large stores in the outskirts of the city. These are discount
stores spread across an area of over 100,000 square feet catering to almost all household
requirements. Some of these stores are almost as big as the malls in India.
Indian retailers are experimenting and putting up stores that cater to the tastes and
preferences of Indian consumers. Thus, in cities where the density of population is high,
players might prefer setting up multiple stores instead of a few large stores capturing various
segments, which would make it simple for the target segment to approach the store, save on
time and the inconvenience of travel (in cities where public transport is not adequate).
Learning from western countries, players are trying to capture the market share by bringing
out formats catering to single verticals. Such chains are called specialty retailers or. Category
killers. in the West. Many specialized stores have been set up with various food, apparel and
footwear brands (both Indian and foreign) and companies like Godrej have already started
furniture stores. Hindustan Lever Ltd, the FMCG major, is considering a retail chain for
laundry products. Big players such as the Dubai-based Jumbo Group, Tatas and some small
players are entering the electronics space. Other categories being explored by retailers are
office products, toys, lingerie, chocolates, electrical products, paper products, stationery and
furnishings. As these stores do not require much space, they will be set up as stores in malls
rather than as standalone stores.
Specialty/concept malls (catering to one category, concept, occasion or a particular kind of
customer) have also sprung up in India. The western countries witnessed this development
almost three decades after the advent of organized retail. Malls catering exclusively to
women, weddings, and education and factory outlets are slated to come up in the near future.
Players are also setting up smaller stores in residential areas (for the convenience of
residents) in order to tap a larger market share. This encourages residents in the adjacent
areas to buy from such stores, and thus, increases sales by expanding the target customer
base and the retail spend of consumers. Such stores will increase the penetration levels of
organized retailing. These stores are mostly food and grocery stores with lesser stock
keeping units (SKUs) primarily targeting weekly replenishment or stores catering to impulse
goods. The idea behind this is to get the customer to buy when he/she goes for an outing or
shopping for other needs, thus increasing the spend on unplanned/impulse purchases. Both
Music World (RPG) and Crossword bookstores have adopted this strategy and started corner
stores at petrol pumps, multiplexes, and etc neighborhood areas.
HUB AND SPOKE MODEL
This model is being increasingly used by retail organizations for setting up smaller stores.
Under this model, one large store becomes a hub with large stock and feeds a few smaller
stores, which operate as spokes. Initially, large chains did not set up small stores in a big
way. However, this model makes the process easier with large stores obtaining supplies from
the warehouse and, in turn, supplying to smaller stores. Under this model, smaller stores can
also procure the goods demanded by the customers from the hub store.
Pyramid Retail’s Trumart stores (food and grocery) in Mumbai and Pune are based on the
same model. There is a good possibility that in the near future, retail chains will tie up with
traditional formats in the areas, which are dominated by kirana stores and are difficult for
the retailers to penetrate due to the unavailability of space and logistics problems. An
arrangement akin to that of franchising might be followed whereby thekiranas will create an
ambience similar to that offered by the retail chain and make it both easier and quicker for
organized retailers to expand operations, thereby creating awin-win situation for both parties.
Private labels are rapidly growing as organized retail is picking up pace in the country.
Apparel and general merchandise have witnessed maximum private labels followed by the
food and grocery segment. With inventory management in place, it is easier for retailers to
integrate backwards in the supply chain and create private labels. Private labels are those that
the retailer sells under his own brand. The retailer might outsource or manufacture in the
case of apparel and accessories and package under his own label in the case of food items.
These labels provide quality assurance to customers. Although they are priced lower than the
premium brands, the gross margin earned by the retailer is almost double of what he earns by
selling other premium brands. This is because the retailer saves at every step of the supply
chain and can still sell at a price lower than the premium brands as no margin is to be given
to the brand owner. These goods can be outsourced from the small-scale industries (SSI) and
designed, packaged or labeled in-house.
Companies are increasingly acquiring private labels in food and grocery and other
valuebasedsegments. Hypermarkets sell both apparel and food items like tealeaves, sugar,
spices, etc after outsourcing them and labeling them in-house. This enables them to provide
cheaper products and gets higher stock turnover and margins. With a decline in import
tariffs, the purchase options for retailers from other countries have also increased.
If positioned in the right manner, the private label can lead to a significant advantage not
only in terms of margins, but also as the brand is unique to the retailer.
However, there are risks associated with private labels:
• They might cause confusion in the mind of the customer in terms of brand value and
recognition. If not designed, priced and promoted properly, these might end up staying on
shelves. The success of private labels depends on differentiation in terms of price, quality
and style. Thus, in order to fulfill the needs of the customers, it is essential for the stores to
maintain an optimum mix.
• These products also lead to high risk of inventory. In case they are not sold, the cost of
production or procurement often has to be borne by the retailer unlike the consignment
arrangements with other branded goods where the unsold goods can be returned. Thus, the
loss because of low sales or clearance sales has to be borne by the retailer. This risk is
particularly high in apparel or fashion items.
• There are other risks like those of line failure and style failure. However, with efficient
supply chain management and designing teams in place, these do not pose a major threat.
Unavailability of government land, zoning restrictions, high stamp duty and lack of clear
ownership titles leads to difficulty in finding good real estate in terms of location and size.
This increases transaction costs and leads to supply constraints. Thus, even if an area has
affluent catchments, retailers might be unable to enter it (for example, South Mumbai).
This problem is being solved by leasing space in malls. With sectors like IT/ITESretail,
hospitality, healthcare and entertainment booming, the demand for commercial space has
increased. Consequently, lease rentals have also skyrocketed. Rentals in established malls in
metros have increased by more than 20-40per cent in the last 6 months. Some prime areas
across various cities have witnessed the doubling of rentals. Rentals at prime malls like In
orbit have doubled in less than 2 years partly as a result of demand for space. At a time when
retailers need to lease more space to support their ambitious expansion plans, this is
becoming a major hurdle.
As retail is a low margin business, lease rental is the single most important cost constituent
and any change in it can affect survival. Most retailers work out a rent-to-reveueratio (a level
at which they can sustain their business) with mall developers. This figure usually varies
between 4 per cent for a hypermarket and 10 per cent for a department store. Rentals
constitute 3-5 per cent of sales in developed markets like the US compared with the current
levels of 10-15 per cent of sales for some Indian retailers.
In nascent markets like India, retailers are paying an expensive price for a business where
increasing competition is already putting pressure on margins. Lease rentals have come
down in places like Gurgaon having a large number of malls. It’s expected that with the
advent of new malls, the rentals will come down; however this will not happen in all areas.
In areas like Dadar and Parel in Mumbai where malls are30being developed on the erstwhile
mill lands, the rentals may be Rs 250-300 per square feet. At such levels, only high margin
players will be able to make money and small players will not be able to survive.wth mall
space becoming expensive, key retailers such as Pantaloon-Kshitij Investment Advisory
Company Ltd (through Kshitij and Horizon funds), Shoppers. Stop (InorbitMalls, Rahejas),
Provogue (Prozone), Piramyd (Piramal Group) have already forayed into mall development.
In addition to related diversification into real estate, space also becomes easily available.
Although malls entail significant investments (the construction cost of a mall of a global
standard is Rs 1,500-2,000 per square feet) and may require even 5-10 years to break even,
we believe that players can arbitrage by buying more space than required and leasing out the
extra space at a higher rate.
INCOME WISE CLASSIFICATION
The initial expansion undertaken by most players was limited to the metros. However;
gradually they are spreading to other large cities to gain from the first-moveradvantageand
customer loyalty. Value formats; super markets and fresh food stores in particular are fast
becoming popular in these cities. It is thus important to determine the potential of key cities
or markets in India and how it will change over time. Cities with a largepopulationwill see
the proliferation of value formats; however, some cities will form a larger pie of the total
retail opportunity in spite of lesser number of households due to a large share of affluent
population. There will be more wealth generated, and the disposable incomewillincrease.
Roughly speaking, the Indian customers can be classified into thefollowingcategories based
on the household income:
Currently, the upper middle and the rich classes drive the retail boom. Although income
shifts will happen, the middle class will remain at the same level. However, with rising
income, their contribution to retail will increase significantly. With a large population
belonging to the middle class, there will be maximum growth in the value segment. By 2011
as the underprivileged households move to the lower middle-income category, the
households in the underprivileged category will decrease and those in the lower middle class
will remain at almost the same level.
GROUPING OF THE CITIES
BASED ON THE MARKET SIZE
Based on their market sizes, the various cities can be divided into certain buckets. Mumbai,
Delhi and Kolkata are not grouped, because of their sheer size. Based on the2009data
(CRISIL research), we can arrive at the following classification:
The CRISIL report predicts that with GDP growth continuing as currently, the total retail
opportunity in the top 25 cities will grow from Rs 2.2 trillion in 2009 to Rs.3.4trillion
in2011. As the income distribution changes, cities with high-income growth will move to
upper buckets based on the retail opportunity size. As the number of cities in the lower
buckets change, their percentage share in the total will also change.
Hence the above table might change to the following table in the year 2011:
The mini-metros will attract more retailers and offer more customers. Pune and
Hyderabad may grow up to the size of Kolkata. Mumbai and Delhi will still remain the
biggest markets. According to the CII research, Delhi alone will offer a retail potential ofRs
800 billion, with the largest number of households in the 10 million plus earning category.
Hyderabad will be the fastest growing city and will have a retail opportunity of around Rs
310 billion. This number will be close to that of Kolkata, in spite of the number of
households in Hyderabad being less than half of those in Kolkata. Chandigarh
andCoimbatore will move to the group of Tier I cities with a retail opportunity of Rs
56billion and Rs 54 billion, respectively, similar to Ludhiana (Rs 54 billion) in spite of a low
population. Vadodara and Vizag will move from the Tier III bucket to Tier II with an
opportunity of Rs 36 billion and Rs 35 billion, respectively, slightly higher than that of
The chart shows the current strategies of the existing big retailers for entering the Indian
(The size of the bubble is proportional to the size of the market)
a) Delhi is very large. Of the total retail opportunity, 37 per cent comes from the households
earning more than Rs 1 million per year. The lower middle and middle class in Delhi form
50 per cent of the total number of households and contribute to 38 per cent of the total
market. There are more than 7,000 households earning more than Rs 10 million annually.
However, these households account for only 5 per cent of the total households in Delhi.
Unlike most cities, underprivileged households constitute only 7 per cent of the total number
According to the CRISIL research, in 2011, Delhi alone will offer a retail potential of Rs 800
billion, with the largest number of households in the Rs 10 million plus earning category.
This is larger than the total opportunity of Bangalore, Hyderabad and Chennai. Thus, players
with lifestyle formats are likely to succeed in Delhi. The number of malls in Delhi is already
high. Moreover, Delhi is the fashion capital of India, with boutiques of most fashion
b) Mumbai – the potpourri of all income categories
Mumbai, with a population of 3.8 million households, currently spends Rs 418 billion on
retail. It has the largest number of underprivileged households, constituting 42 per cent of
the population and contributing 12 per cent to the retail market. The retail spent of the lower
middle class is 31 per cent and that of the middle class is 16 per cent. The rich class accounts
for 30 per cent of total retail. Both lifestyle and value formats are likely to work in Mumbai,
as the population in each category has a significant share in total retail. The linear structure
of the city makes it important for retailers to cater to various catchments through multiple
stores. Further, Mumbai has several affluent belts, which are likely to be dotted with lifestyle
stores. It is projected that by 2011, the retail potential in Mumbai will increase to Rs 612
billion, with the upper middle and rich classes forming 50 per cent of the retail opportunity.
c) Kolkata – glaring disparities in income
In spite of being home to around 3 million households, Kolkata contributes only Rs 200
billion to the total retail. 51 per cent of the households in Kolkata belong to the
underprivileged category and contribute to 23 per cent of the total retail. The lower middle
and middle classes constitute 47 per cent of total households and account for 58 per cent of
the retail market. Value formats are expected to do well in the city as 98 per cent of the
households belong to the middle class and lower income categories. Lifestyle formats will be
limited only to certain catchments and are unlikely to come up in a big way. The total retail
opportunity in Kolkata is expected to increase to Rs 330 billion by 2011. Even then, the
underprivileged and lower middle class will comprise 81 per cent of the total population.
Upper middle and rich classes will account for around 6 per cent of the total households but
their spent will increase to 40 per cent further highlighting the disparity in income.
d) Bangalore, Hyderabad and Chennai – the mini-metros
Bangalore, Hyderabad and Chennai have been grouped together as Mini MetrosI due to
similarity in the type of households, income distribution patterns and growth history.
These cities together have a current retail market of Rs 430 billion accounted for by 4.3
million households. Of these three cities, Hyderabad has the lowest share of underprivileged
households. The importance of lower middle and middle classes is highlighted in these
cities, as they contribute to more than 60 per cent of households and around 50 per cent of
retail opportunity. With growth in the IT/ITES sectors, these cities will witness the largest
transition from middle to upper middle and rich categories. The retail opportunity in Mini
MetrosI will increase to Rs 720 billion in 2011, still lower than Delhi. Hyderabad will
witness rapid growth among these cities and will have retail opportunity of around Rs 310
billion. This will be similar to the retail opportunity of Kolkata in spite of the number of
households being less than half of those in Kolkata.
e) Ahmedabad and Pune
With about 2 million households, these cities currently have a retail market of Rs 158 billion.
The retail market of these cities together is similar to that of Chennai. As compared to Mini
Metros I, they have a larger share of the underprivileged category, with 39 per cent of the
total households belonging to this category. However, Pune has a smaller share of
underprivileged population as compared to Ahmedabad. The lower middle and middle
classes contribute to 53 per cent of the number of households as well as retail sales. By 2011,
the retail potential of these two cities will go up to Rs 245 billion. The underprivileged
population in these cities will come down to 30 per cent. The middle class categories will
contribute to 70 per cent of both opportunity and households. Both these cities are
witnessing frenetic activity in retail and real estate. The number of malls expected to come
up in Pune will be larger than that in any city in Mini Metros I. Post-expansion in the top 8
cities, retailers are now exploring Tier I, II and III cities of India. Most of these cities have
witnessed proliferation of value segments through super and hypermarkets but lifestyle
stores have not gained much ground. These cities account for a large aspirant population and
have lower lease rentals. However, in the prime locations and market areas, lease rentals
have significantly risen as these cities have a few prime locations unlike the metros.
Ludhiana, Kanpur, Surat and Nagpur together have a Rs 190 billion-retail market (close to
Rs 200 billion market of Kolkata) with 2 million households. These cities are among the
fastest growing smaller cities in India. The lower middle class forms 59 per cent of the
number of households and accounts for 51 per cent of the retail opportunity. The middle
class contributes to 18 per cent of the retail market. Among these cities, Surat has the largest
population; however, its market size is similar to other cities with a large section earning
below Rs 100,000. Ludhiana has a significant population belonging to the affluent class.
These four cities have already witnessed the penetration of both lifestyle and value formats.
Tier II cities comprise Lucknow, Jaipur, Chandigarh, Coimbatore and Kochi, accounting for
around Rs 154 billion of the total retail market. The retail opportunity and number of
households of these cities together is similar to that of Chennai. These cities widely differ in
terms of population and income distribution but have been clubbed together because of
similar retail market size. Jaipur and Lucknow have a larger number of households;
however, a major part of their population belongs to lower income categories. Chandigarh,
Coimbatore and Kochi have a larger share of affluent households. The two lowest income
categories account for 55 per cent of retail opportunity and 88 per cent of number of
The Tier III group comprises Vadodara, Vizag, Indore, Vijaywada, Tiruvananthpuram,
Bhopal, Nasik and Madurai. Cities like Indore and Bhopal are larger than some Tier II cities
but have a lower share in total retail due to low-income growth. Some smaller cities in this
category like Vizag are considerably growing with rapid economic growth. A total of 2.3
million households reside in these cities but they contribute to only Rs 132 billion of total
retail due to their small size and high proportion of low-income households. It is predicted
that in 2011, Vadodara and Vizag will move out of this group and join Tier II cities. The
retail opportunity from the remaining six cities will be around Rs 136 billion.
These cities will mostly account for underprivileged and lower middle income households.
Thus, value retailing will be popular in these cities.
MATURING, TRANSITIONAL, EMERGING, HIGH GROWTH AND
In order to identify the likely future retail hierarchy and the nature of property opportunities,
we can classify the various cities into five categories, based on the different stages in the
market evolution and each offering a different set of opportunities for retailers and the
property sector. We shall put the top 50 cities in the following broad categories:
1) Maturing Cities:
Delhi/NCR and Mumbai are much above the other Indian cities in terms of number of
shopping malls and organized retailers. Since 2003 their shopping mall stocks have
increased markedly, and both cities have significant pipelines. Competition within the NCR
and Mumbai will intensify as supply grows and there is risk of saturation in some market
segments by 2008. Nonetheless, there are notable market gaps and both metros are
sufficiently large and diverse to accommodate a wide variety of new formats, including large
one-stop malls, specialty malls catering for luxury brands, city hypermarkets, smaller
neighbourhood malls and “big box” retailing. The NCR and Mumbai will unquestionably
continue to dominate the Indian retail scene, and despite strong growth in secondary and
tertiary cities, there is every chance that these two cities will continue to have an
approximate share of 40% of the Indian retail market for at least a couple of years to come.
The NCR and Mumbai have by far the highest number of shopping malls in operation and
planned. Most pan-Indian retailers have a multiple presence, they are the launch pads for
most new retailer entrants and with by far the largest number of “super-rich”, and these cities
are the hubs of luxury brands. They are firmly on the radar of screen of international retailers
and property investors. Competition within the NCR and Mumbai will intensify as supply
grows and there is risk of saturation in some market segments by 2009. Strong asset price
growth and difficulties in land procurement make for a challenging environment for both
retailers and developers. Nonetheless, there are notable market gaps and both metros are
sufficiently large to accommodate a wide variety of new formats.
Opportunities are likely to arise in:
Developing large one-stop malls that combine mixed use concepts, integrating retail,
entertainment, eating and residential uses.
Catering for the numerous luxury brand retailers that are now targeting India’s two
main metros. Currently, luxury brands are only largely present in major five star
hotels (such as The Oberoi and Imperial in Delhi and the Taj Mahal Palace in
Mumbai), but there is strong demand from these retailers for showrooms in both
large shopping malls and specialty malls.
Responding to the requirement for “Big Box” formats; a format that is likely to
emerge over the next couple of years.
Developing more accessible neighbourhood malls and hypermarkets within the cities.
Most current and planned schemes are remote from the main residential areas, and
low car penetration makes shopping malls inaccessible to many consumers.
Targeting the booming middle class residential suburbs, such as Greater NOIDA
(NCR) and Navi Mumbai and Thane (Mumbai) where many of the IT/ITES
companies are based; and focusing in particular on those suburbs that have yet to see
significant mall development.
The National Capital Region has been and continues to be the leader in mall culture in India.
Organized retailing in the NCR is twice the size of Mumbai, both in terms of shopping mall
stock and retailer presence. Rising income levels, increasing demand for branded products
and wider acceptance of mall culture (than elsewhere in India) has led to massive growth in
the shopping mall stock. Retailers are also attracted by the consumer profile of the NCR,
with over 40% of households in SEC groups A and B. At present the total mall stock stands