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Weylon Malek AMPEAK 2014 Presentation - Process Reliability

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Weylon Malek's presentation at AMPEAK Perth 2014 on Process Reliability

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Weylon Malek AMPEAK 2014 Presentation - Process Reliability

  1. 1. www.armsreliability.com Process Reliability Weylon Malek Lead Engineer - Western Australia
  2. 2. www.armsreliability.com Your Organisation • What triggers your organisation to perform an RCA? • Easy… These typically cause significant production losses • Shutdown Extensions • Explosions or other event that may cause injury • What triggers your organisation to perform an RCM study? • Typically smaller losses that add up or Reliability issues on bottleneck assets • Poor Maintenance Strategy • Poor Spares Management and/or Resource Levelling • How often does your organisation review its’ maintenance strategies? • Answers I’ve heard in the past… • Never • Every 24 months
  3. 3. www.armsreliability.com Why Use Process Reliability • The Weibull process reliability techniques help define a strategic course of action for making improvements. • The look down technique provides opportunities for developing a strategy to solve problems. • The method tells the nature of problems and quantifying the losses.
  4. 4. www.armsreliability.com Analysing a PR Chart The reliability of the process is defined at the point where the trend line, in the upper reaches of the production, began their losses at a cusp. A portion of the losses appear as cutbacks. Another portion of the losses appear as very severe problems characterized by a zone labeled crash and burn---both zones are associated with reliability problems.
  5. 5. www.armsreliability.com Process Reliability Chart
  6. 6. www.armsreliability.com Nameplate Values • NAMEPLATE Eta – The maximum plant capacity under assumed ideal operating and control conditions. This value can be however obtained by taking an average of the best 15 production results. • NAMEPLATE Beta – Manually set to 75 (or other pre-determined value). Beta of 100 is seen to be “world class” production, achieving highly consistent results. – Improvement in Nameplate Values will occur as the consistency of throughput is increased as a result of focussing on both Production and Reliability losses
  7. 7. www.armsreliability.com Production Values • PRODUCTION Eta – Production Line tonnes are based on the Weibull analysis performed using the daily production data, returning a value where the production data line (best of fit) intersects with the Eta estimator (63.2% of production results are below) • PRODUCTION Beta – The Characteristic Shape, or slope of the Weibull Distribution. In Process analysis, this represents the consistency in the plant’s outputs. The lower the number, the lower the consistency or increase in variability within the process. – Production Losses are typically related to; • Utilisation • Efficiency • Process variability • Equipment Operating Characteristics • Systemic issues
  8. 8. www.armsreliability.com Reliability Losses • Total Reliability & Loss – Reliability point is where there is a cusp in the production points plotted on the Weibull chart. This represents the point where production becomes inconsistent or unreliable. The loss value is the difference between demonstrated capacity and are the points at which the production values lie to the left of that capacity line – The cusp for the point of reliability represents probability the capacity (tonnes) is likely to be achieved or greater. – i.e at this point a 90.34% probability of achieving 382.3 tonnes or greater – Losses here equate to “Given” tonnes lost per day through reliability plant issues such as breakdowns – Reliability losses should be targeted with a formailised RCA Defect Elimination Process with defined trigger points to reduce variability in plant throughput. This will result in higher eta and beta Production values which represents increased throughput consistency
  9. 9. www.armsreliability.com 12 Month Analysis Profile Profile Production Losses Reliability Losses 1 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Month 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 LostCapacitytonnes
  10. 10. www.armsreliability.com How To Improve? • What is the issue? • Reliability or Process? • How to deal with those issues? • Do those issues change over time? • How to quantify improvements?
  11. 11. www.armsreliability.com Using a Reliability Block Diagram (RBD) to Help Make Decisions • An RBD is a logic diagram that describes a system behaviour and easily allows different scenarios to be analysed. 1.1 Prim ary Crushing System (97.45)% 1.2 40,000tonneLive Coars eOrePile System (95.46)% 1.3 Sec ondary Crus herFeed Conveyor 621-CVR-0-02 M TTF=100.6 M TTR=0.92 100% 1.4 Sec ondary Crus hingSystem (99.71)% 1.5 Coars eScreen FeedConveyor 622-CRV-0-03 M TTF=144.2 M TTR=1.65 100% 1.7 HRGRFeed Conveyor 623-CVR-0-04 M TTF=173.5 M TTR=1.15 100% 1.8 HPGRSy stem (87.63)% 1.2.1 Coars eOrePile TTE=96 TFL=12 100% 1.11 FineSc reening andBallMill System 1 (24.48)% 1.12 FineSc reening andBallMill System 2 (24.45)% 1.13 FineSc reening andBallMill System 3 (24.52)% 1.14 FineSc reening andBallMill System 4 (24.44)% 1.26 Coars eScreen Feeder 623-FDV-1-01 M TTF=64.8 M TTR=0.45 35% 1.27 Coars eScreen 623-SCR-1-01 35% 1.28 Coars eScreen Feeder 623-FDV-2-01 M TTF=64.8 M TTR=0.45 35% 1.29 Coars eScreen 623-SCR-2-01 35% 1.30 Coars eScreen Feeder 623-FDV-3-01 M TTF=64.8 M TTR=0.45 35% 1.31 Coars eScreen 623-SCR-3-01 35% 1.32 Coars eScreen Feeder 623-FDV-4-01 M TTF=64.8 M TTR=0.45 35% 1.33 Coars eScreen 623-SCR-4-01 35% 1.34 12WShutdown TTF=1000000 M TTR=0 100% 1.35 1YRShutdown TTF=1000000 M TTR=0 100% 1.36 6WShutdown TTF=1000000 M TTR=0 100% Copy Of1.8.17 FineOreBin 625-BIN TTE=2.27 TFL=1.19 100% Example of a crushing circuit
  12. 12. www.armsreliability.com Which System is the Bottleneck?
  13. 13. www.armsreliability.com Is there something in that system we can target? • Lets take a look at the problem system in detail Example of the Secondary Crushing System BN-003 Secondary Screen Feed Bin 1 FE-002 Secondary Screen Belt Feeder 1 BN-004 Secondary Screen Feed Bin 2 FE-003 Secondary Screen Belt Feeder 2 SC-002 Secondary Screen 1 SC-003 Secondary Screen 2 CV-003 Conveyor CV03 BN-006 Secondary Crusher Feed Bin 1 BN-007 Secondary Crusher Feed Bin 2 FE-005 Secondary Crusher Feeder 1 FE-006 Secondary Crusher Feeder 2 CV-004 Conveyor CV04 CR-002 Secondary Crusher 1 CR-003 Secondary Crusher 2 PP-004 Dust Scrubber Slurry Pump PP-010 Sump Pump PP-011 Sump Pump DC-003 Secondary Screening Dust Scrubber AU10-PPP-CRU-BLDNG-BD002 BUILDING, SECONDARY SCREENING AU10-PPP-CRU-BLDNG-BD003 BUILDING, SECONDARY CRUSHING F-004.1 No Capacity Consequence Sub-system F-004
  14. 14. www.armsreliability.com What to do in the Problem System to Improve Production? In this example CV04 and CV03 have the biggest impact on production. 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 Conveyor CV04 Conveyor CV03 Secondary Crusher 1 Secondary Crusher 2 Secondary Screening Dust Scrubber Secondary Crusher Feeder 1 Secondary Crusher Feeder 2 Contribution to Capacity Loss (Thousand $) Component Contribution to Capacity Loss over 10 YRS
  15. 15. www.armsreliability.com Implementing The Strategy • Reliability Block Diagrams (RBD) – Utilise an Availability Simulation to predict production increases with different scenarios. How does a redundancy scenario change production?
  16. 16. www.armsreliability.com Implementing Your Strategy • Reliability Block Diagrams (RBD) – Utilise an Availability Simulation to predict production increases with different scenarios. What predicted impact will a RCM have on our production? MTTF goes from 8760 to 4860 through RCM
  17. 17. www.armsreliability.com What is the Best Solution?
  18. 18. www.armsreliability.com Comparing Results
  19. 19. www.armsreliability.com Conclusions • Step One – Identify room for improvement • Step Two – Identify the best improvement that can be made. • Step Three – Quantify the cost benefit in the options available for improvement through statistical methods. • Step Four – Analyse the data to see what impact decisions have on the business.
  20. 20. www.armsreliability.com Weylon Malek ARMS Reliability wmalek@armsreliability.com

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