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Aires, Advanced Intelligent Risk Evalutation System

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Aires, Advanced Intelligent Risk Evalutation System

  1. 1. SummaryTeam 4 — with 10+ years experience in AI, Risk Analysis & marketing 2 PhD engineers, 1 PhD in Finance, 1 Marketing proProduct Accurate credit risk solution: help banks decrease # Non Performing Loans
  2. 2. Business opportunityBoosting the accuracy of credit risk methodologies will lead to considerable gains. Value non-performing loans - % Corporate Debt Default - Europe 250 Portugal 4.5 4 2008 200 2009 3.5 3 150 2.5 2 100 1.5 50 1 0.5 0 0 Germany UK Spain It aly Russia Greece 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Source: Issue 2 of NP E L urope, a publication overing non-performing loan (NPL) markets in Europe and the United Kingdom (UK).
  3. 3. AIRES Accuracy Classification Method Weighted Efficiency (%) Z-score (Altman) 62.7 Best Discriminant 66.1 MLP 71.4 Our Method 84.1Source: Vieira, A.S., Neves, J.C.: Improving Bankruptcy Prediction with Hidden LayerLearning. Vector Quantization. European Accounting Review, 15 (2), 253-271 (2006).
  4. 4. AIRES Solution
  5. 5. Portal AIRES today
  6. 6. AIRES - recent eventsPRESS INTERESTED PARTNERSDN (1 page), Sol, JN, I, S. Económico
  7. 7. AIRES benefitsClient Benefits Investor BenefitsAccuracy – better decisions ScalableEfficiency - Cost Reduction High growth potentialSavings of Capital - Basle High return and value creation
  8. 8. Market  $??? Market Today  Concentrated in 30 major customers  Distributed among another 500 minor ones  No customer has market powerBANKS INSURANCES
  9. 9. Competition SAS Sage Works 3i-Infotech Dun & Bradstreet Experian Equifax Credirisk Coface We use more accurate AI tools. Our user interface is more user-friendly Decisions based on more reliable and accurate information
  10. 10. 3,000 Financials Sales EBIT 2,500 Free Cash Flow 2,000 1,500 K Euros 1,000 500 0 2011 2012 2013 2015 2016 2014 -500 Capital Employed Capital Invested: Pay-back: 2 Yrs 2011 2012 Total Value created: 10 M€ Fixed Assets: 26 k€Equity: 200 k€ 120 k€ = 320 k€ Working Capital Working capital > 0Debt: 70 k€ = 70 k€ Requirements: 22 k€ Liquidity – positiveTotal 390 k€ Development: 342 k€ Debt ratio < 75% Total 390 k€
  11. 11. Team Business Director of IT Researcher Marketing Director ResearchJoão Carvalho das Neves Armando Vieira Bernardete Ribeiro Tiago Marques Professor of Professor of Physics, & Associate Professor Marketing and Management, ISEG. entrepreneur. Ph.D. in of Computer Business Ph.D. in Business Physics and researcher Science, University Consultant, Administration, in Artificial Intelligence Coimbra, E-Business Manchester Business http://armando.sairmais.com researcher at Specialist School CISUC.http://pascal.iseg.utl.pt/~jcneves/ http://dei.uc.pt/bribeiro
  12. 12. Conclusion A risk-free business is impossible.However, “risk-free” risk models may be not. Team experienced in the sector & prototype Product quickly in market & changes the market Market hundred millions & growing – BASEL III Competition manageable Low capital requirements high growth and value potential

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