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trade the forex

  1. 1. ==== ====jump start your FOREX career today check this out : ====This delusion globally entails identical aftermaths: 90-95% of traders turn steady to loose theirdeposits having studied books by Bill Williams, Alexander Elder, Thomas Demark, J. Schwager, etal.Following the burn down of their first deposit traders plunge themselves again into scrutinizingForex scholars, in this manner suffering losses of the second, the third and subsequent deposit. Iwill hereinafter try to elucidate where from the above regularity grows, so that no trader repeats hisforerunners mistakes.This statistics is common knowledge: 90% of traders constitute Forex losers... But the figure hasalways been giving rise to a leviathan of my doubts. It isnt because of somewhat different 95%-5% loser-to-winner ratio quoted in the Van Tarp and Brian June "Intraday trading: secrets ofmastership". With 90% quoted universally, there naturally emerges the question, as to whetherthere is someone capable to check, to specify or to disprove the above figure.NO ONE IS, besides the directors of largest Western banks providing streamline Forex quotes, buthaving never raised the issue.WHY? Because should this statistics be published, there will be sharp and ultimate decline innumber of those chasing easy profits from the world Forex market. Otherwise banks would notkeep mum in advertising purposes. Neither would they be silent if losers constituted at least by fewpoints less than 90%. In any advertising, customer attraction is ensured by quoting beneficialmaxima and non-lucrative minima. This has always been, is being and will always be a universalpractice.As a conclusion, 10% Forex winners is a maximum result among traders. Its them, who haveunderstood Forex market absolutely simple truisms and who attained steady daily earnings inamounts being gained by others within years or even the whole of life.Certainly, those are to be recollected, who in late 80s were the first in the ex-USSR to grasp lawsof commerce and who began accumulating their initial stock. The rules used to be so simple thatpresently any schoolboy or a first-year student can show the way the capital might have beeneasily scraped up and augmented on the USSR debris and in the course of market relations beingestablished in the post-Soviet space.I do exactly allow for the fact that through the years a new generation will be laughing at the waywe are now incapable to comprehend the laws, where under currency rates either spike up or falldown, all of a sudden.With this provision, those seeking fast money at Forex have a much greater time limit than theones engaged in capital building in the post-Soviet space (Forex market is incommensurably
  2. 2. greater than that in the ex-USSR), but not to the extent thought by many.By now trends are thoroughly less numerous than they used to be 10-20 years ago. By way oftaking a glance the charts history You are in the position to understand the way traders used toearn under 20- 40 pts spread, commission and slippage. A trend was followed by a trend at thatepoch.AND WHATS NOW? Nowadays many of traders are impotent to gain under 3 pts spread withoutcommission and slippage.Thus, this book is intended for those willing to perceive Forex market laws.In order to get understanding of the way 5-10% of successful traders obtain profits, lets at theoutset analyze the reasons and the way the outstanding 90% of traders suffer losses. The 90%-figure looks scaring, to say nothing of 95% or 98%. It occurs despite the amount of literature onthe issue equals to hundreds of fundamental books, written by authors, having gained capitalsexpressed by means of more than 7-digit figures (G. Soros, B. Williams, A. Elder, T. Demark).Thus, the above minimum of 90% of smart, well-read, broad-knowledged people:- scrutinize the really great traders heritage;- open accounts with Forex Brokers and banks, start trading and...- loose funds up to complete rout!AND WHERES THE LOGIC? The answer springs to mind by itself... Theres something wrong inthe literature (by the way, recognized throughout the world, where the deposit-killing statistics is asdisappointing as it is in our country) so long as its studying yields such oppressive results.STRANGE? No, rather natural, than strange on account of the following:1. Being a great trader is not indicative of everyone being a great teacher.2. Multitude of rules elaborated by scholars 10-40 years ago, has grown obsolete, since the Forexmarket is changing.3. The scholars HAVE NOT revealed ALL the secrets even WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THETHENFOREX, therefore by now their advice and recommendation turn out either obsolete ornaïve.Thus, once ones advice and recommendations bring every 9 of 10 market participants to loosetheir money in each country, where ones books have used to be published and have enjoyed allsorts of hosanna in the press, THEN ONE IS NONE OF A TEACHER.Naturally, no trader will reveal his professional secrets to the full. But when studying Forexliterature one gets astonished by a negligible extent the above secrets are "confided" at all, with a
  3. 3. book on Forex containing 99% of common truth and 1% only of useful novelties. But should onetrain up even several thousands perspective traders, one will in no way burden oneself withcompetitors, due to the Forex market huge sale nature. Beyond a shadow of a doubt the abovetraders are really great. You may agree or not, but anyone, having earned USD1 bn or more,deserves being named "great". So, ones books should be published as memoirs. I am notattaching any irony hereto, since these persons have acquired gains by virtue of their minds andlabor, as opposite to Rockfellers, who inherited their fortunes or to Russian oligarchs, who eitherstole or got their capitals dirt-cheap from state authorities.Hopefully, understandable is the difference between such editions and manuals for beginners.G. Kasparov, say, is far from writing manuals for chess beginners, since the job can be bettercompleted by others with this fact not at all undermining Kasparovs being a great chess player.And his advice and recommendation is sure to be of interest rather to a close circle of grandmasters, than to those having touched the chess for the first time.Actually Kasparov is but to be respected for not being tempted by the lust for fast money, by virtueof his name in the chess world and by way of cooking up manuals for beginners.At Forex, by contrast, and for some reason, everyone deems oneself a teacher, which fact resultsin millions educated people worldwide leaving stock market being disappointed, angry with aninferiority complex life-time pursuit.And hence, the unanswered question for them: is that all a fraud or not, since gains are midget,whereas losses are titanic?I am recalling the book titled "The Alchemy of Finance" by G. Soros (the one Ive read in early 90-s). I admit, its interesting, instructive..., but it is all narrated in so an inarticulate and tangledmanner. As indicated in the foreword by an American investor, the theory has hardly beenunderstood by few only.So whats the use of writing in such a manner? A theory may generally be complicated to anyextent, BUT IT MUST BE wrapped in a simple, clear and understandable wording.You are welcome to attempt to read the above book once You have time to. Shortly, the Sorosreflexivity theory of the countries cyclic development may easily bear a couple-sentenceconfinement:1. Following liberation from totalitarian yoke, a country is granted credits, then, there is a rapidgrowth and flourish of economy.2. As soon as the above credits are to be paid back, a countrys economy faces a naturalrecession.Is it as difficult? The question may be addressed to a schoolboy (to say nothing of an Americaninvestor): when should those countries companies shares be purchased and when they are to beadvantageously sold in order to acquire maximum profit? Whats going to happen in case one istoo late to sell the shares, shortly exhibiting an impetuous growth in price?
  4. 4. Propounded long before, the Soros theory has been entirely corroborated in August, 98 by thedismal practice established in Asian and Pacific countries and later in Russia.There still is another question: how inarticulate should Soros have been to enable his theory to begrasped by few only?The second part of the book is not worth retelling. Reading its original is sure to be much moreinstructive with my annotation leaving no conundrums therein.The theory is permeated by Soross strategy: enter long on whats shortly going to enjoy pricegrowth with a 100% probability and "pull out" Your money along with profits before the companiesenter crisis, thus facilitating bankruptcies thereof.This is the way I clearly lecture my students on Forex-related complexities, thus conveying mylogics to them. Despite its own complexities (news, TA, corrective actions, etc.), Forex isessentially reduced to a very simple truth: at a certain moment one should not be late with goinglong or short on a currency with "tertium non datum".And when asked if the Williams Alligator needs something to be added thereto, the majority of mystudents reply "Yes!", indicating what exactly is to be added.Ill present a detailed vivisection of the issue in a separate chapter by way of proving that theWilliams Alligator is but 50% effective.Fig. 4. H1 EUR chart as of April 12, 2005. (See Note below)The Alligators jaws display upward opening with a fractal formed at 1.3006. According to Williams,one should enter long one point higher, i.e. at 1.3007. Upward motion continues extra 11 points.Then the rate sharply swivels to fall down by 170 pts.Another example.Fig. 5. H1 EUR chart as of April 22, 2005. (See Note below)Please, figure out 1.3094, 16 pts above the previous fractal, following the Alligator upwardopening. Thereafter, a sharp down swivel covering 140 pts.Hundreds of similar examples may be drawn. But what are the implications?With the Alligators mouth opened, 50% of entries should be pro-Williams while the outstanding50% - counter-Williams (i.e. vectored opposite to the Alligator mouth opening). When embarkingon Forex, You must possess clear knowledge of the difference between either of the above 50%-portions. Otherwise..., You are doomed to loose even if You follow Williamss technique, let aloneother ones.Even my students are in the position to advise what is to be added to Alligator in order to realizeproper entry vectoring. Least of all would I want this example to be taken as a personal criticism ofBill Williams, whose contribution to the Forex theory is a significant one. And the majority oftraders, like me, used to begin earning after studying HIS books. But not to go astray..., evenwithout any addenda Williams managed to make a tremendous fortune, since a skilled trader(moreover being the Alligators father) is capable to differentiate between a steady travel and apullback, or, say, a flat, or, visa versa, a trend low for the entry to be vectored oppositely. It is all
  5. 5. fairly understandable for an experienced trader. But what about beginners as regards theirinterpretation of a flat, a recovery or a trend change?These folks are sure to require assistance, especially, in information not presented in literature onForex.Without this knowledge a trader will never perceive the ABCs of stable daily earnings. But why theForex scholars do not clear out the issue? This query is to be addressed to them, not to me. Whilereading these opuses, I am getting horrified at the fact that we are being foisted expensive high-sounding titled books, which are not going to ever teach a trader how to attain profits at themarket.Lets open one of them (E. Naymans "Traders Minor Encyclopedia" and "Master-trading: SecretFiles") to get the understanding of the way almost all the books on Forex are written and supposedto have the price of USD20-100.You may agree or not, but the name looks very beautiful and pretentious: "Master-trading: SecretFiles", 320 pages of sheer secrets...HOWEVER, I HAVENT FOUND ANY SECRETS THERE! You are welcome to discuss an argueYourself:1. "The interrelation between fundamental factors and exchange rate dynamics" being a detailedstory of how a countrys macroeconomic growing, benign rumors trading and political stabilitypromote the exchange rate growth.A "valuable" secret to be practically encountered in any Forex edition. But below is a real FAsecret (not paid any attention to by Nayman): why does currency use to reverse against itscountrys economic news? A whole chapter here will be dedicated to the issue.2. "Construction of two moving averages on a single chart and twin combinations thereof". Theauthor furnishes a "wise" recommendation: entries should be made in the direction the MAsdiverge (adding secretly that the most effective MA combination is 21, 55, 89, etc., as perFibonacci).The pseudo-secret nature of the above recommendation underlies the fact that any MAcombination (should it be 21+55, as the authors; 10+20 as in many Western trading systems;5+8+13 as per B. Williams or 1+21 as used by numerous traders) yields the same results.Ok. It all looks great. However, E. Nayman et al., seem to have circumvented the MA intersectionchief secret, through which traders suffer constant losses: a "lighter" MA has crossed a "heavier"one, say, upwards, but... thereafter there is sharp downturn resulting in the MAs intersectionagain.Fig. 6. GBPUSD H1 chart as of April, 21-26, 2005. (See Note below)A fivefold reciprocating crossing of MA 21 and 55. You are welcome to calculate traders losses.
  6. 6. Now, lets call it a day with examples. The MA intersection technique operates perfectly in certaincircumstances, while turning out impotent in others, thus inflicting losses upon traders. No criteriahave ever been stipulated by Forex scholars as to entries to be effected pro- or counter-divergence of moving averages.3. MACD construction and analysis. What sort of secret may one expect from the followingstatement of Naymans: "a subsequent high being lower than the preceding one suggests a bullishtrend depletion or even its changing with the same being visa versa under minimum MACDvalues". Much of a secret, isnt it? I thought it were the MACD operation principle, familiar to anyForex novice. The secret-fancier B. Williams hasnt even taken effort to advise to perform inputschange from 9, 12, 26 into 5, 34, 5 to provide for a lag killer.Assuming the above, authentic MACD secrets are not paid any attention to by scholar, which factinflicts losses upon traders. The situation comes into effect, when upon a divergence formation, notrend change is observed with another same-trend wave taking place instead.Fig. 7. GBPUSD H1 chart as of April, 2005, where MA21 crosses MA55 with slight rise and sharpdownturn. (See Note below)Another example:Fig. 8. GBPUSD H1 chart as of May, 2005: a divergence with MA10 upward crossing MA21; abrief nudge up to 1.8916 and a sharp downturn. (See Note below)As different from Nayman and other Forex scholars, well touch in detail upon the ways to detectwhen MACD is trustworthy as a trend reversal attribute and when it is not.4. TA classical patterns. One can not help smiling at the author sharing a secret of"headnshoulders" and "double bottom" patterns, being studied by beginners at the earliestlectures on Forex.And here goes a real key secret: in what cases the patterns are indeed indicative of a reversal butin what cases brokers trap TA pattern-fanciers? Is there someone doubting the fact that patternsare known not only to traders, but as well to brokers with their mouths watering to make a rod forthe backs of lovers and connoisseurs of the above patterns, just like on the sample chart below:Fig. 9. GBPUSD H1 chart as of May, 09-11, 2005, a classical "inverted H&S" (See Notebelow)At 1.8871 theres an impetuous upward breakthrough, the Alligator rotating upwards, MACD abovezero, MA8 having intersected MA21 upwards, the Williams vaunted Awesome Oscillator signalinglong entry, the Accelerator Oscillator pointing up... nevertheless, the rate reaches as far as 1.8916and slips down to 1.8481 by 450 pts.To be noted: much worth scrutinizing is the phenomenon of Naymans "Traders MinorEncyclopedia" and "Master-trading: secret files" purported at understanding why over 90% oftraders turn losers after reading the books.
  7. 7. The solution, to my mind, is that the above opuses are but good "ABCs OF FOREX" thus givingbirth to all Naymans merits and demerits.The guy is primarily awardable for having spared beginners paying USD50-200 to various Forextraining courses or academies. Instead, one can download and study Naymans books, whoseextracts are, by the way, quoted to trainees during their studies.Nayman is generally to be expressed gratitude to, because of his having laid out the Forex basiccourse in a competent, popular and accessible way.This is the point, I elucidate to every beginner, being introduced to me: first one should scrutinizeNaymans books, then only its worth discussing hooks and crooks of earning at Forex instead ofloosing.Nevertheless, there is a chief Naymans self-delusion about his folios really being in no way secretfiles with no one being able to find anything new to enable oneself to improve ones Forexearnings. These books containing neither unique techniques nor non-standard solutions arefamous for the generalization and systematization of what has been the Forex knowledge prior toNayman.But this fact is not realized by majority gripped by the "Master-trading: Secret Files" fascination,who open live accounts and turn losers inevitably.Shortly upon their pre-mature success on demo accounts these folks hastened to open liveaccounts and faced losses. But since the Dealers staff managed to convince them in theincidental nature of the above losses, the folks ventured to go live again and did again turn to bedeposit killers.With these facts being proclaimed, I dont hold it appropriate to call any statistics science for help.Any sensible man is to get the understanding of the above losses as not being of an incidentalnature.There could be NO OTHER WAY about it.The next trader training level comprises books by B. Williams: "Trading Chaos" and "New aspectsof exchange trading", where the author propounds his own Forex trading methods along withadvertising the other ones, viz. Elliotts.My book, "Secrets Of Craftsmanship Narrated By Professional Trader Or What B. Williams and E.Nayman Have Concealed From Traders" is purported at developing of THAT particular school oftraining traders to practical operation at Forex.Hardly will anyone object to the fact that B. Williams will disclose his Forex intimacies free ofcharge. Neither will he furnish their 100% disclosure after being paid to.In all his splendor, Williams possessed sufficient knowledge to;- to share A PORTION of his secrets in his "Trading Chaos";
  8. 8. - to share A PORTION of his secrets as a paid training;- not to share A PORTION of his secrets in the least.My book, "Secrets Of Craftsmanship Narrated By Professional Trader Or What B. Williams and E.Nayman Have Concealed From Traders" is also dedicated to teaching how the Williams secretmethods are to be decoded properly to ensure successful Forex trading capabilities.Each of my books 20 chapters is permeated with a common logic aimed at finding relevantdiscrepancies in literature on Forex and at presenting my personal technique of Forex trading.B. Williams declares being capable of analyzing tens of currency pairs (of 140-bar history each)that within tens of minutes, but in no way does he explain how to, whereas, I explain, that itsfeasible for any wide-screen trader, provided my computer monitor being 3-currency capable only(see: "Ally and adversary currencies").B. Williams sings about his magic Alligator, while I disclose and eliminate its pitfalls by, say,adding a MA233 thereto. This arrangement visualizes the whole of the 4 potential currency traveloptions: up/down above MA233; up/down under MA233.B. Williams lists a stop-loss to be a "safety cushion", whereas I disclose and eliminate itsshortcomings by way of alternatively using my own pending orders.B. Williams hold trades volume to be authentic resistance breakthrough criterion, while I quotereasons by which trades volume turns to be deceptive on Metatrader platforms (thanks to thebanks Consortium) and I introduce my own levels true/false breach criteria.Now, regarding trading on news, I demonstrate the way one can turn a loser if trade like all theothers and I offer my own on-news trading style.(See continuation of this article under name Forex Secret. Forex Literature As A 90-95% Of TheTraders Loose Their Deposit. (Part II)Note:Full text of this article and pictures of examples you wish to be trained on Trading System Masterforex-V - one of new and most effectivetechniques of trade on Forex in the world visit Vasilevich (Masterforex-V)Professional Trader from 2000 year.President of Masterforex-V Trading Academy.Author of Books:1. Trade secrets by a professional trader or what B. Williams, A. Elder and J. Schwager not toldabout Forex to traders.2. Technical analyses in Trading System MasterForex-V.3. Entry and Exit Points at Forex Market
  9. 9. http://www.masterforex-v.suhttp://www.masterforex-v.orgArticle Source: ====jump start your FOREX career today check this out : ====