1.7 balance between population and resources


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1.7 balance between population and resources

  1. 1. Balance between population and resources By the end of this lesson you will: • Know the terms overpopulation, underpopul ation and optimum population • Have studied optimistic and pessimistic approaches to population change • Considered sustainable development with regards to population policies
  2. 2. Homework Check • 1) Why does middle age arguably start at 55? • 2) What are some of the challenges faced by China’s ageing population? • 3) How do you expect China’s population structure to look by 2050? • Q. Complete spider diagrams or flash cards on two case studies of ageing populations – Devon and China
  3. 3. Peer-Marking • June 2011 5B) • There has been a recent increase in population due to both natural and migration change. Clearly the two are interlinked, although they have arguably affected population increase at different times. The natural increase had particularly increased the population in 2009 where women born in Britain are having more children. This could be due to a baby boom among women in their 30s, largely due to better tax credits and maternity leave. • Immigration had the predominant impact in 2001, particularly on the baby-boom as the age of the migrants was predominantly at child bearing age reflective of the age structure of migrants. There have been changes over time with impact on increased population, and without immigration the overall population would actually be sinking.
  4. 4. Geog. Course • Chief examiner feedback: • His favourite questions are to ask you to ‘comment’ on either statistics, a graph or a picture • He wants you to ‘think like a Geographer’ • He awards the top marks to those who can comment upon ANOMALIES • Another good critical word is ‘homogenise’ • Facts quoted only need to ‘ring true’ • Essays should be practised in 15mins to give realistic idea of exam • To get the absolute top marks, evidence of independent study should be there • You can still get top marks without giving definitions in your essay
  5. 5. Key Terms • Read page 68 and make your own condensed definitions of Overpopulation, Underpopulation and Optimum population • Where do you think Mumbai would be placed on figure 5.19? • Where do you think countries such as Australia and Canada would be on figure 5.19? • Which do you think is more of a problem?
  6. 6. Resources • Q. Fill the box on page 69 • • • • By resources we mean: Food resources – indigenous crops Technology resources – phone masts Energy resources – solar energy
  7. 7. Pessimistic Approaches - Malthus • Some scholars have predicted a gloomy future for the balance between population and resources. • Thomas Malthus in, An Essay on the Principle of Population as it Affects the Future Improvement of Society (1798) is one of the best known pessimistic outlooks. • Population will continue to increase – geometrical rate • Food supply will only grow at an arithmetic rate • Will lead to famine • Mankind MUST respond • Q. What are Geometric and Arithmetic rates? • Q. Can you think of any examples of Malthus’ predictions coming into fruition?
  8. 8. Pessimistic Approaches - Malthus 1984
  9. 9. Pessimistic Approaches - Malthus • The UN predict that by 2050 45% of the world’s population will be living in areas that cannot provide the required 50 litres of water a day to meet basic needs
  10. 10. Neo-Malthusians • These are people that have since adopted Malthus’ pessimistic belief • Paul Ehrlich • Global warming • The club of Rome • Q. Read page 72 on the club of Rome model. Complete the exercises on page 76-77 • Q. Look at the graphs on page 76 and be ready to verbally analyse them in front of the class
  11. 11. The Club of Rome Model – Group Quiz • 1. When was the club of Rome model published? • 2. What are 2 of the 5 major trends of concern? • 3. What impact did the population growth between 1900-1970 have on industrial and food outputs? • 4. What is meant by the term overshoot and collapse? • 5. What will happen to the population in this model?
  12. 12. Optimistic Approaches • Others, however, have formed more optimistic views about the balance between population and resources • You need to know the theories of Boserup and Simon • Q. Read the information on page 74 and make notes • Q. What contemporary evidence can you think of to support either positions? • Electric Cars
  13. 13. Debate • In groups of 4, create an argument to argue FOR your given approach and AGAINST the other approaches • You must have stats and evidence to support your argument • You must be ready to counter any arguments the other group may have • We will have a class debate • You can use your phones to look up examples to support your argument • If you can include the phrases: trends, anomalies, homogenise
  14. 14. Class Notes • • • • • • Thomas Malthus: PESSIMIST English. 1798 Essay on the principle of population Population = geometric rate (exponential) Food = arithmetic rate (same increase each time..) Thus, people will outgrow food. Famine will occur. Predictions occurred not in Britain as they had agricultural revolution • BUT Ethiopian and Sudan famines are evidence of his predictions. They suffer chronic malnutrition.
  15. 15. Class Notes • Esther Boserup: OPTIMIST • Environment’s limits for resources can be altered by humans • We will always come up with alternatives to resources when they start to run out • Necessity promotes intervention • Increase of shifting cultivation systems in various parts of the world i.e rainforests • Agricultural revolutions are the main evidence • ‘green revolution’ – fertilisers, pesticides
  16. 16. • • • • • • • • The Club of Rome: PESSIMISTS  Have 5 areas of concern: 1. Too much industrialisation 2. Rapid pop. Growth 3. widespread malnutrition 4. depletion of non-renewable resources 5. deteriorating environment Overshoot and collapse = there is too much strain on resources they will run out. • If this continues, population will decrease rapidly in 100years • We MUST take the environment more seriously, and stop consumerism
  17. 17. • Julian Simon and Bjorn Lomborg: OPTIMISTS  • Older scares have been exaggerations i.e pesticides are going to kill us – but this have never happened • Another example ‘there’s going to be a low sperm count and no fertility’….never happened… • They believe that Technology needs to be embraced to solve all these problems, particularly Nuclear power.
  18. 18. • Malthus: • 1798 Essay on the principle of population and it’s affects on future society • PESSIMIST • Population = geometric/exponential rate • Food = arithmetic rate (more steady) • Examples: Sahel famine in 1984, UN predict that by 2050 40% of people will not have access to enough clean water • Predicts that when the resources become scare homosexuality will become rife • Also says lower classes should stop having children
  19. 19. • • • • Julian Simon – OPTIMIST  DID NOT believe theories predicted i.e. Malthus Claims the ‘scares’ didn’t actually happen E.g in 1970 it was claimed there was going to be an oil crisis…actually, they’ve GROWN • Other examples…elephants are going to become extinct, sperm count is going to fall.. • All were wrong?! We are made to feel guilty. • Has faith in renewable energies
  20. 20. • • • • The Club of Rome: (1972) – neo-malthusians Came together as an academic group in Rome Pessimists Resource limitation will be reached in 100years and population will rapidly decline • 5 trends prove this; deteriorating environment, rapid population growth, accelerating industrialisation, widespread malnutrition, depletion of non-renewable resources • Overshoot and collapse – Industrial capital stock • However, they suggests we could alter the trends if we become more sustainable
  21. 21. • Esther Boserup: Optimist  1965 • Environments have limits, but these can be altered by technology • Talked about agrarian improvements • Intense forms of agriculture will keep resources available • Pesticides, fertilisers are an example of technology promoting food growth • Home-made hamburger also an example
  22. 22. Class Notes • Malthus: • Suggests population grows at GEOMETRIC rate, and food grows at ARITHMETIC rate • Therefore, population will outgrow resources • Famine will occur unless population growth is limited. • He predicted that people needed to change their morals and actions in order to create sustainable living • Malthus’ predictions have happened a) Sahel famine in 1984 and UN prediction that by 2050 40% of people will not be able to access clean water
  23. 23. • Julian Simon and Bjorn Lomborg – OPTIMISTS  • Believe people are made to feel guilty • E.g ‘oil is going to run out’ ‘we’re all going to die from nuclear explosions’ ‘there’s a falling sperm count’ • Technology should improve living standards across the world • We shouldn’t really combat ‘climate change’ but instead adjust/adapt it e.g rising sea levels • Should tackle global disease
  24. 24. • • • • The club of Rome: The system is going to ‘overshot and collapse’ We are going to run out of resources Widespread malnutrition, rapid population growth, depletion of resources, depreciation environment • Must invest more into resources • Investment can’t keep up with resources (i.e. resources COST MONEY) but the more MONEY we need, the resources become more difficult to gain • Limits to growth will be reached in 100years :-/ this will result in POPULATION DECLINE could be war, we will go back to the start
  25. 25. • • • • • Ester Boserup: OPTIMIST  With pressure comes adaptation There WILL be higher crop yields (a green revolution) Fertilisers, water control will all help this. Conditions of Agricultural Change the Economics of Agrarian change under Population Pressure • Scientific inventions will help i.e the artificial burger • (more) Contemporary • Necessity creates intervention
  26. 26. • 1. What is geometric rate? • 2. Give an example of Malthus’ predictions in practice • 3. What do Simon and Lomborg suggest can be used more to improve living standards? • 4. In how many years will we have a rapid population decline unless something is done according to the club of Rome • 5. finish the phrase ‘with pressure comes…’
  27. 27. Exam Practise • Q. Explain an optimistic approach to the balance between population and resource (4 marks) • Q. Comment on the balance between population and resources in an area with high population density (7 marks) • Q. Comment on the validity of pessimistic approaches to the balance between population and resources (7 marks)