Datamining Etnography


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Datamining Etnography

  1. 1. Ethnography Vs Datamining ? (sebuah pendekatan dalam market research) Suhermin Ari Pujiati Dayaolahawarta - 2009 ETHNOGRAPHY? Research method based on immersion into the daily routines of a particular user community (in homes offices, community. homes, offices shops, hospitals, entertainments spaces, hospitality, etc.) Long term, often over several months, where data is captured through interview notes, transcribed conversations, film, videography, d id h drawings, etc. i t Companies use it to gain insights into the culture and behavior of their customers.
  2. 2. Pengguna Riset Ethnography?
  3. 3. Time and again we see institutional blindness, compounded by dangerously misleading survey results. Consumers change their minds, faster than market research can predict them……! “If experience is embedded in the ‘individual’ and if we cannot quantify the individual, how does ethnography connect the individual to the collective domain to arrive at any meaningful generalization?”
  4. 4. Trends in Marketing Research Characteristics of Good Marketing Research 1. Scientific Effective marketing research uses the principles of the method scientific method: careful observation, formulation of hypotheses, prediction, and testing. 2. Research At its best, marketing research develops innovative creativity ways to solve a problem 3. Multiple Marketing researchers shy away from overreliance on methods any one method. They also recognize the value of using two or three methods to increase confidence in the results. See text for complete table
  5. 5. Trends in Marketing Research Environmental Scanning and Forecasting Increased Market Intelligence Global MISs (I.e.JIGSAW Project) Data Fusion, Data Mining, Neuro- biographic Clustering and Beyond…. Use of Live Data External research Associates (ERAs) Deontology Issues Marketing Intelligence System A set of procedures and p sources used by managers to obtain everyday information about developments in the th marketing k ti environment.
  6. 6. Database Marketing Database marketing companies have already made significant progress integrating public sources of customer data ( including census f t d t i l di data, birth records, bankruptcy and divorce proceedings, real-estate transactions, motor vehicle registrations, and driver’s license information) with private data sources (such as point-of-sale data, credit/debit card and ATM transactions, transactions telephone billing information, information membership lists, home shopping activities, electronic ticketing, etc.). DATAMINING ? Data mining is a new discipline lying at the interface of statistics, database technology, pattern f t ti ti d t b t h l tt recognition, machine learning, and other areas. It is concerned with the secondary analysis of large databases in order to find previously unsuspected relationships which are of interest or value to the database owners. (David J. HAND)
  7. 7. DATAMINING ? Data mining tools are now being developed to sift through the marketing data to identify patterns and relationships using traditional analytic tools like regression, cluster analysis, and decision trees, and newer technologies like Artificial Neural Networks, Genetic Algorithms, and Bayesian Networks. New Market Research System N M k tR hS t Ethnography & Datamining
  8. 8. Marketing Research System The Marketing Research Process Step 1: Define the Problem, the Decision Alternatives, and the Research Objectives Step 2: Develop the Research Plan Data Sources Research Approaches Observational research Focus group research Survey research S h Behavioural data Experimental research Ethnography Marketing Research System Research Instruments Questionnaires Psychological tools Mechanical devices Quantitative measures Sampling Plan Sampling unit Sample size Sampling procedure
  9. 9. Probability and Nonprobability Samples A. Probability Sample Simple random sample Every member of the population has an equal chance of selection Stratified random sample The population is divided into mutually exclusive groups (such as age groups), and random samples are drawn from each group Cluster (area) sample The population is divided into mutually exclusive groups (such as city blocks), blocks) and the researcher draws a sample of the groups to interview Continued on next slide . . . Probability and Nonprobability Samples (Continued) A. Nonprobability Sample Convenience sample The researcher selects the most accessible population members Judgment sample The researcher selects population members who are good prospects for accurate information Quota sample The researcher finds and interviews a prescribed number of people in each of several categories
  10. 10. Marketing Research System Step 3: Collect the Information Step 4: Analyze the Information Step 5: Present the Findings Step 6: Make the Decision Forecasting and Demand Measurement Forecasting and Demand Measurement The Measures of Market Demand Which Market to Ma ket Measure? Market Potential market Available market Target market g (severed market) Penetrated market
  11. 11. Forecasting and Demand Measurement A Vocabulary for Demand Measurement Market Demand Market share Market penetration index Share penetration index Market Forecast Market Potential Product penetration percentage Company Demand Company Sales Forecast Sales quota Sales budget Company Sales Potential Forecasting and Demand Measurement Estimating Current demand Total Market Potential Area Market Potential Market-Buildup Method Multiple-Factor Index Method Brand development index (BDI) Industry Sales and Market Shares Estimating Future Demand Survey of Buyers’ Intentions Forecasting Purchase probability scale
  12. 12. Research is the art of seeing what everyone else has seen, and doing what no-one else has done…..! done ! ….metrics are learned men’s Excuses…..! …don’t fear change, embrace it…….! …..if we knew what we were doing, it wouldn t be if doing wouldn’t research………!