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Indian monsoon dynamics update 2012 13


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Major highlights :

• In the current season the monsoon is expected to be 85 - 88 per cent of the long term average (based on various forecasts).
• Out of 641 meteorological districts for which data are available, 224 districts (34.95 per cent) of the meteorological districts received excess/normal rainfall and the remaining 417 districts (65.05 per cent) received deficient/scanty rainfall during the season (as on 25th July 2012).
• The Kharif season crop (Paddy, moong, groundnut, chillies, cotton, soybean sugarcane and turmeric) have suffered and gross decline in area of each crops have been reported.
• In the current season, the most significant decline in area has been noticed in case of moong, which showed a decline of 35.13 per cent over last year and about 29.88 per cent over the drought year of 2009.

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Indian monsoon dynamics update 2012 13

  1. 1.   Indian Monsoon Dynamics: An Outlook for 2012‐13 Introduction:  The contribution of agriculture in GDP is on consistent decline; it has shrunk from over 25.80 per centin 1996 to about 15.0 per cent in 2012 and is further expected to decline because of the lack of focuson agriculture. This share is on consistent decline owing to lack of focus on agriculture over the yearsand shrinking economic support. Indian agriculture still continues to real under the shadow ofmonsoon. The lack of irrigation facilities continues to pressure the Indian agriculture even after 62years of independence, since only 42.4 per cent of sown agricultural land is irrigated. The land of thecountry is thus under tremendous pressure to feed over a billion population and provide employmentto about 65 per cent of the total work force. It is therefore very necessary that the monsoon shouldcommence on proper time and precipitation should be in adequate amount.Indian agriculture is facing increased pressure on account of consistent population growth (Annual1.53 per cent) and its extensive reliability on monsoon rains. For farmers, it is highly critical to knowwhen the onset will occur as this affects the timing of the planting of crops. If rainfall is deficient thenmore than two-thirds of the seedlings can die. To prevent this, the prediction systems play a veryimportant role. Lack of irrigation facilities has thus resulted in decline of agricultural productivity andslight variation in the amount and timing of monsoon has serious impact on the overall food grainproduction of the country. In the recent times the impact of global warming has increased theuncertainty in both time and amount of rains in the monsoon season. El-Nino and La Nina, a widelyacclaimed weather phenomenon, which alters the climate of more than half the planet, has recentlyaffected Indian monsoon in both time and amount of precipitation.El Nino takes place when warmer than usual sea water exists off the coast of South America. El Ninocauses climate effects around the world. It occurs every two to five years and lasts for several monthsor even a few years. The major effects of El Nino are increase in average ocean surface watertemperature in the region, heavy rains along the Pacific Coast, disruption of food chain of fish, birdsand sea mammals, tornadoes and thunderstorms in US and reduced number of hurricanes in theAtlantic.La Nina is the cooling of water in Pacific Ocean. It occurs every five to eight years and the lastingperiod may be few month to couple of years. The major effect of La Nina are cooler seatemperatures, high atmospheric pressure and drier air, brings up the nutrients from deep water andproving feast to the marine fishes, birds and mammals, causes snow on the west coast, draught inSouth East America and increased number hurricanes in the Atlantic. The significant effect of La Ninaon the Indian climate is not yet noticed, the El Nino affects the climate significantly.The effect of El Nino on Indian monsoon had been drastic for the year 2009 and is expected to castadverse spell on to the monsoon of 2012-13. In the current season the monsoon is expected to be 85- 88 per cent of the long term average.In the current season the monsoon set in over Kerala about one week late than its normal date of 1stJune. The monsoon continues to be weak in spite of covering most parts of the country. Ratingagency CRISIL warned that a continuation of this situation in the remaining weeks of this monsoonseason would lead to a drought, maybe severe, in 2012. It termed the situation akin to 2009, whenIndia faced the worst drought in 30 years.
  2. 2.  Out of 641 meteorological districts for which data are available, 224 districts (34.95 per cent) of themeteorological districts received excess/normal rainfall and the remaining 417 districts (65.05 percent) received deficient/scanty rainfall during the season (as on 25th July 2012). The operational longrange forecast for the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole and over four homogeneousregions except south peninsula have not been accurate. The forecast for August rainfall over thecountry as a whole is not expected to be adequate owing to the recent development in the El-Ninoparameters in the Pacific Ocean.Figure 1. Map of India Showing distribution of Rain Fall in monsoon season (2012-13) Source: Indian Meteorological Department, Government of IndiaThe above period (01 June – 25th July 2012) clearly showed that most of the agricultural areas are notreceiving sufficient rainfall. The Kharif season crop (Paddy, moong, groundnut, red chillies, cotton,soybean sugarcane and turmeric) have suffered and gross decline in area of each crops have beenreported. The comparative study is been made between the monsoon and agriculture production in2009 and 2012 to see the impact of monsoon on each crop.31st August 2012  Trade & Commodity Intelligence Group, NCML  Page 2  
  3. 3.  The table following shows the comparative amount of precipitation in India and four major regionsfor the year 2009 and 2012.Table1. Region wise comparison of amount of rain received (Actual & LPA in mm) 2009-10 (Till 22nd July) 2012 – 13 (Till 18th July)Region Actual LPA % Deviation Actual LPA % DeviationNorthwest (NW) India 134.3  216.3  ‐38  114.3  187.8  -39Central India 410.6  399.4  3  255.4  347.4  -26South Peninsula 296.0  313.8  ‐6  218.6  283.1  -23North East (NE) India 382.7  665.6  ‐43  578.9  613.5  -6All India 298.7  368.8  ‐19  256.4  328.1  -22*LPA is Long Period AverageSource: Indian Meteorological Department, Government of IndiaFrom the above table, it is clear that the monsoon of 2012 is developing in the same pattern as that inthe case of monsoon on 2009, which was deficient by about 19 per cent till 18th July. The monsoon iscurrently deficient by 22 per cent. The direct impact of the deficiency in rainfall on the crops could beseen, when the production of major crops in the country in the current year is compared to thefigures of the preceding years.Table 2. Major crops Acreage in the monsoon season till 20th July 2012 (Lakh Ha) Normal Kharif  Change  Change Crops  23rd July 09  22nd  July10  20th July11  20th July12  Area as on date  over 2011  over 2009 Rice  153.37  157.67  154.2  161.27  144.59  ‐10.34  ‐8.30 Maize  51.99  56.93  55.49  52.96  47.84  ‐9.67  ‐15.97 Tur  20.55  21.76  21.79  21.35  17.84  ‐16.44  ‐18.01 Urad  11.92  12.92  12.16  13.72  10.32  ‐24.78  ‐20.12 Moong  12.19  11.01  11.79  11.9  7.72  ‐35.13  ‐29.88 Soybean  71.88  81.53  80.96  90.33  86.2  ‐4.57  5.73 Cotton  90.03  80.63  97.01  92.45  83.74  ‐9.42  3.86 Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Govt. of IndiaThe effect of monsoon rains in the food grains output of the country can be clearly seen from theabove table and figure. The monsoon in year 2011 was almost 105.00 per cent to the normalmonsoon in 2011-12 and most of the crops exceeded their estimated targets of production and as aresult we received a record food grain production of above 250 million tonnes for the first time. Themonsoon was declared as failure in the year 2009 by the central government and the effect ofdeficient monsoon is clearly visible for the gap between the target and the expected productionlevels in major crops. Since similar situation in the monsoon is seen in the recent times, there are31st August 2012  Trade & Commodity Intelligence Group, NCML  Page 3  
  4. 4.  ample reasons for us to fear for the lower production. The comparative analysis of the sowing patternfor 2012-13 to different monsoon years since 2009 shows that there has been a significant decline inthe area for different crops. The most significant decline has been noticed in case of moong, whichshowed a decline of 35.13 per cent over last year and about 29.88 per cent over the drought year of2009. Other significant declines were noticed in case of Urad, Tur, Rice and Maize. The low level ofsowing is significant as it has dropped below the levels of 2009, which has already been declared asone on the worst draught years in the Indian history.Figure 2. Major Statistics of Foodgrain Production and StocksIn the above figure, an attempt has been made to find the link between the total foodgrains production, the percentage of The available data on rainfall indicate on drought perspective that –  irrigated land and the stocks in • 16% of the Country’s total area is drought prone and annually hand of the government to about 50 million people in the country are exposed to the crisis cope up with the adverse of drought; climatic/ production scenario. • A total of 68% of sown area is subject to drought in varying The data represented in the degrees; above graph is between 1972 • 35% of area receives rainfall between 750-mm - 1125-mm and and 2010. The Red Ovals in the is drought prone; plot marks the drought year (as • Most of drought prone areas lie in the arid (19.6%), semi-arid (37%) and sub-humid (21%) areas of the country that occupy declared by All India Summer 77.6% of its total land area of 329 million hectares. Monsoon Rainfall, Department • Annual Average Rainfall is 1160 mm in India. However, 85% of Agriculture & Cooperation, is concentrated in 100-120 days (SW Monsoon) Ministry of Agriculture, • 33%of area receives less than 750-mm rainfall and is chronically Government of India). The drought prone; Identified drought years are • 21% area receives less than 750 mm rainfall (large area of 1972, 1974, 1982, 1985, 1986, Peninsular and Rajasthan) • Rainfall is erratic in 4 out of 10 years. 1987, 2002 and 2009. In almost • Irrigation Potential is 140 Million Ha (76 MHa Surface + 64 MHa all the drought years the Groundwater) production of foodgrains had • Depletion of Ground water and limitation of surface water imply come down. The percentage that not all net sown area is amenable to irrigation. irrigated land in the country is • Per Capita Water availability is steadily declining due to increase almost constant (about 45 per in population, rapid industrialization, urbanization, cropping cent) for the last 10 to 12 years. intensity and declining ground water level. Problems are likely to aggravate. The foodgrains stocks in the • Net Result – Inevitability of Drought in Some Part or Other. hand of the government has also shown declining trend in the corresponding draught years.The status of the foodgrain production in the drought years in comparison to the preceding normalyear on monsoon is shown in the following table.31st August 2012  Trade & Commodity Intelligence Group, NCML  Page 4  
  5. 5.  Table: 2. Performance of foodgrains production in draught in comparison to non-drought years (%)Drought Years Area % Irrigated Land Production Procurement Offtake Stocks1972-73 ‐2.80  ‐3.62  ‐8.39 1974-75 ‐4.51  7.55  ‐4.85  ‐52.71  ‐2.01  ‐5.99 1982-83 ‐3.23  3.90  ‐2.92  8.35  13.86  0.27 1984-85 ‐3.54  3.13  ‐4.69  17.00  ‐13.43  29.62 1985-86 1.05  ‐1.59  3.26  4.26  30.28  ‐2.17 1986-87 ‐0.64  3.68  ‐4.89  ‐0.35  1.34  ‐6.25 2002-03 ‐7.83  ‐0.47  ‐21.78  ‐9.78  37.20  ‐55.50 2009-10* 0.15  ‐1.11  ‐8.13  ‐18.88  ‐44.16  26.65  Source: Based on figures from Ministry of AgricultureFrom the above table it can be inferred that the production of foodgrains has declined in the droughtyear. The growth of the irrigated area has been evenly paced with marginal dips in the drought years.The pressure has been noticed in case of the procurement of foodgrains by the government agencieswhich have declined in almost every drought. The Offtake from government agencies have shown aconsistent increase during the drought years. The major reason identified for the drought in thecountry between 1972- 2002 is been the El-Nino (the basic description of which has been given in theearlier text). Important geological facts regarding Indian drought has been mentioned in the followingtext box which we feel is of prime importance if we have to discuss the overall performance of theagriculture sector.The pattern and the progress of monsoon and its comparison to the total foodgrain production overthe years in the country could be analysed from the following figure.Figure 3. Progress of Foodgrain Production & Developments in Monsoon Rain DistributionThe food production trend over the years have been upside barring few down’s due to weather woes,which is positive for the country. The major slump in the production was seen in 2002-03 which was asevere drought year. The same trend was noticed for the year 2009-10. The point of concern is thedistribution of rainfall. From the above figure it is evident that the number of districts with normal toexcess rainfall is declining as the years are passing. If the same trend continues for another decade orso the threat of drought occurring in the country would increase immensely and hence only 45 percent of the total cultivated area has good irrigation facilities, the Indian agriculture may be headingtowards much stiffer challenges.31st August 2012  Trade & Commodity Intelligence Group, NCML  Page 5  
  6. 6.   Major Weather forecast for 2012-13 • El Niño, a periodic warming of Pacific Ocean waters, takes two forms — the eastern Pacific El Niño and its more severe central Pacific counterpart, which emerged in the late twentieth century and is already known to cause drought. • Records of El Ninos in the 20th century have shown that over the past 100 years there may have been at least 23 El Ninos and 15 La Ninas. Out of the most powerful 10 El Ninos of the last century, four of the most damaging El Ninos have occurred since the year 1980 - the first year of global warming caused by the Cycle of the Sun (1980-2016.) • NOAA and other global climatologists continue to see rising temperatures in the eastern Pacific, now about 1-degree Celsius above normal, with receding trade winds. • The Sun is beginning to pick up activity, a sure sign of coming climate changes on Earth. In 2008, out of the years 365 days, the Sun was blank (no sunspots) 73% of the year, about 266 days. The Sun has been in the longest known solar minimum recorded since 1901 and 1913. This has led to the unprecedented warming of the ocean surface. • This ENSO is expected to dominate the worlds weather events through all of 2010, into 2011 and 2012, via very strong tele-connections when the world can expect increased flooding from powerful storms with resulting mudslides from torrential rains to the coasts of Ecuador and Peru, but also witnessing droughts in the southern to mid-western United States, and severe droughts in the counties of Australia, China, India, Indonesia, India, Philippines, and Africa. • During June 2012, ENSO-neutral continued as reflected in both the oceanic and atmospheric anomalies. However, positive equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have grown, exceeding +0.5oC across the eastern Pacific Ocean by the end of June. • Most of the set of dynamical and statistical model predictions issued during late June and early July 2012 predict development of El Nino conditions around the July-September season, continuing through the remainder of 2012. • The oceanic heat content anomalies (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) increased during June, as above-average sub-surface temperatures became more entrenched in the equatorial Pacific. This warming was consistent with a weakening of the low-level trade winds across the east-central equatorial Pacific, along with a weakening of the persistent pattern of enhanced convection near Papua New Guinea. The observations are consistent with ENSO- neutral, but reflect a likely progression towards El Niño. • The dynamical models, including the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS), largely favor the development of El Niño by July-September 2012, while the majority of statistical models predict ENSO-neutral through the rest of 2012. • The past fortnight has seen climate indicators ease slightly, with all showing values near the threshold for an El Niño event. While indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), sea surface temperatures and trade winds have eased over the past two weeks, such short-term fluctuations are common and to be expected, and indicators still clearly remain near El Niño thresholds (Commonwealth of Australia , Bureau of Meteorology). Thus we expect that the Indian economy is to face much stiffer challenges in the years to come on the climate and weather front. The present scenario is not so encouraging. With the overall shortfall of rainfall by about 22.00 per cent and forecast of much lesser rains for the rest of the season India would be heading for tougher times. The dependence on the monsoon rains for keeping control over the food grains inflation may not prove too judicious. In the preview of the current study, it is strongly recommended that India should prepare emergency plans in advance and store supplies of essential foodgrains to cope up with the climatic challenges ahead. Digitally signed by Dr. Hanish Kumar Sinha Dr. Hanish Kumar Sinha DN: cn=Dr. Hanish Kumar Sinha, c=IN, o=National Collateral Management Services Ltd, ou=Head: Trade and Commodity Intelligence Group, Date: 2012.08.03 13:23:55 +0530Disclaimer:This consultancy report has been prepared by National Collateral Management Services Limited (NCMSL) for the sole benefit of the addressee. Neither the report nor any part of the report shall be provided to third parties without the written consent of NCMSL. Anythird party in possession of the report may not rely on its conclusions without the written consent of NCMSL.NCMSL has exercised reasonable care and skill in preparation of this consultancy report but has not independently verified information provided by others. No other warranty, express or implied, is made in relation to this report. Therefore NCMSL assumes noliability for any loss resulting from errors, omissions or misrepresentations made by others.Any recommendations, opinions and findings stated in this report are based on circumstances and facts as they existed at the time of preparation of this report. Any change in circumstances and facts on which this report is based may adversely affect anyrecommendations, opinions or findings contained in this report.© National Collateral Management Services Limited (NCMSL) 2012 31st August 2012  Trade & Commodity Intelligence Group, NCML  Page 6