Environmental excellence Morne du Plesses WWF

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Environmental footprint, the global context, Climate change, Ecosystem services, green economy

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  • The MA focused on population growth in last 50 years. From MA Synthesis: “Between 1960 and 2000, the demand for ecosystem services
    grew significantly as world population doubled to 6 billion people ...” This figure (not from the MA) illustrates that recent growth but in the context of the longer term trends. Sources are listed below.
    1 billion in about 1804, 2 billion in 1927 (123 years to double), 4 billion in 1974 (54 yrs to double); 6.5 billion in July 2005. In the last 45 years (since 1960) more people have been added to the planet (3.4 billion) than lived on the planet in 1960.
    Source (1950 to 2050): Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, 06 July 2005; 1:30:16 PM.
    Source (1700-1900): Ronald Lee, “The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change”, Journal of Economics Perspectives, Volume 17, Number 4—Fall 2003—Pages 167–190.
    Source (pre 1700): Population Reference Bureau: "World population expanded to about 300 million by A.D. 1 and continued to grow at a moderate rate. But after the start of the Industrial Revolution in the 18th century, living standards rose and widespread famines and epidemics diminished in some regions. Population growth accelerated. The population climbed to about 760 million in 1750 and reached 1 billion around 1800"
  • These data are the best demonstration of how over geological time CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere have cycled. Not that it has over past 400 000 years never been over 300 parts per million ….. Bear in mind that modern humans have only been around for 100 000 years. Note the spike in CO2 in the industrial period, a mere slither in the time axis. We are currently sitting very close to 389 ppm, and almost certainly have 450 ppm banked even if we hope to turn global warming at 2 C – which seems increasingly unlikely.
    In short, this slide is the best I know to demonstrate that humans are in fact responsible for the spike over and above the normal geological times scale cycling that is happening in the background …..
  • The GREEN line is the temperature increase that we are already experiencing compared to pre-industrial period.
    The BLUE Line is the consequences of a 2 C increase that we are almost certainly heading for given that there are no globally binding commitments in place
    The RED Line is where we are heading almost certainly if a firm and binding commitment is not on the table by COP 17 that commits nations to take the steps to bring things to an earlier halt …..
  • This slide is to highlight the South African economy’s energy (i.e. Carbon) intensity .... i.e. the production of carbon emissions for every unit in increased GDP. Note that knowledge economies are relatively light intensity.
  • The assessment focuses on the linkages between ecosystems and human well-being and, in particular, on “ecosystem
    services.” An ecosystem is a dynamic complex of plant, animal, and microorganism communities and the nonliving
    environment interacting as a functional unit. The MA deals with the full range of ecosystems—from those relatively
    undisturbed, such as natural forests, to landscapes with mixed patterns of human use, to ecosystems intensively managed
    and modified by humans, such as agricultural land and urban areas. Ecosystem services are the benefits people
    obtain from ecosystems. These include provisioning services such as food, water, timber, and fiber; regulating services that
    affect climate, floods, disease, wastes, and water quality; cultural services that provide recreational, aesthetic, and spiritual
    benefits; and supporting services such as soil formation, photosynthesis, and nutrient cycling. The
    human species, while buffered against environmental changes by culture and technology, is fundamentally dependent
    on the flow of ecosystem services.
    Original version of this slide was prepared by Karen Bennett, WRI.
  • Including all clean energy technologies with traditional EGS makes a sector of more than $5 trillion. Renewable energy and other low carbon technologies make up more than four times the value of “traditional” EGS.
  • And continued to grow in 2008, a crisis year.
  • Environmental excellence Morne du Plesses WWF

    1. 1. Environmental excellence: Why should business care ? Morné du Plessis
    2. 2. Outline • Environmental footprint: the global context • Climate change: scary, but true ! • Ecosystem services – free or not ? • The role of business • The opportunities – green economy
    3. 3. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 Year 1 billion in 1800 4 billion in 1975 2 billion in 1920 6.5 billion in 2005 World Population (billions) Source: UN Population Division 2004; Lee, 2003; Population Reference Bureau
    4. 4. The Human Ecological Footprint (1961-2005)
    5. 5. WORLD MAP OF RELATIVE ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT
    6. 6. Carbon Cropland Grazing Forest Fishing Buildings Ecological Footprint by Component (1961-2005)
    7. 7. 450 Putting it in Perspective 389
    8. 8. Stern Report (2006)
    9. 9. Energy intensity of economy per unit GDP (in 2004) Energy intensity (MJ/US$) Japan 5 United Kingdom 6 Italy 7 Germany 7 France 8 United States 9 Mexico 11 Brazil 13 Canada 14 China 36 South Africa 36 India 41 Russia 82 Worldwide average 13
    10. 10. •Regulating •Benefits obtained from regulation of ecosystem processes •Cultural •Non-material benefits from ecosystems •Provisioning •Goods produced or provided by ecosystems Unique Ecosystem Services Photo credits (left to right, top to bottom): Purdue University, WomenAid.org, LSUP, NASA, unknown, CEH Wallingford, unknown, W. Reid, Staffan
    11. 11. Natural Resource Trends • Rising threat of water shortages • Rising unrecycled levels of solid waste disposal resulting in declining soil quality • Loss and degradation of biodiversity as natural habitat in aquatic and terrestial ecosystems • Threats to coastal and marine resources • Increasing internalisation of environmental costs From: Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism
    12. 12. Internalisation of Ecosystem Services Households or businesses—directly pay the ES providers (e.g. a company buys carbon offsets from a farmer). Businesses pay the ES providers and pass the costs to clients (e.g., a water utility pays for upper watershed conservation activities and increases water bills for consumers by that amount). Government pays ES providers and pass the costs to consumers (e.g., product taxes and fees) or to taxpayers (e.g., general budget).
    13. 13. A massive response required from business and industry (top 200 corporations generate 1/3 of global economic activity)
    14. 14. History and Future of Corporate Responsibility NotNot My BusinessMy Business ReducingReducing ImpactImpact ZeroZero ImpactImpact Net PositiveNet Positive ImpactImpact Selling Solutions toSelling Solutions to the World’s problemsthe World’s problems Philanthropy toPhilanthropy to Offset ImpactsOffset Impacts ComplianceCompliance And BeyondAnd Beyond Risk Mgmt &Risk Mgmt & Cost EfficienciesCost Efficiencies
    15. 15. Examples of positive outcomes • Decouple GHG and GDP In USA 47% less energy per USD of economic growth over last 30 yrs • Energy efficiency investment of USD 170 B will return savings of USD 900 B by 2020 (annual rate of return of 17%; McKinsey) • Green-collar jobs 2.3 M jobs in RE versus 2.1 M in ‘Oil & Gas; Construction, Transport, Agric, Fisheries’ • Health economic burden of air pollution amounts to 1.2% of GDP (add malaria, etc)
    16. 16. The low-carbon sector Global Low-Carbon EGS in 2008: £3 046bn = $5 trillion (UK Department of Business Enterprise and Regulatory Reform) • Traditional EGS 21.6% (waste management, pollution control, recycling) • Renewable Energy 30.9% (including hydropower) • Emerging Low Carbon 47.5% (including alternative fuel, alternative fuel vehicles and building technologies)
    17. 17. Source: New Energy Finance, IMF WEO Database, IEA WEO 2007, Boeing 2006 Annual Report Adjusted for reinvestment. Geared re-investment assumes a 1 year lag between VC/PE/Public Markets funds raised and re-investment in projects. Total Global New Investment in Clean Energy 2004 – 2007 • 1% of global fixed asset investment • 19% of global energy industry infrastructure investment •250% of commercial aircraft investment $148.4bn $92.6bn $58.7bn $33.4bn 2004 2005 2006 2007 76% Growth 58% Growth 60% Growth
    18. 18. Green resilience In 2008, a crisis year… • RE investment ($140bn) exceeded coal investment ($110bn) • RE (capacity) grew 16% even as world oil use declined. 2009 growth is slower, but faster recovery than in almost any other sector < fiscal support
    19. 19. “We have an opportunity for greatness which has never been offered to any civilisation, any generation in human history, to act as a generation to do the right thing. If we fail to act on it, we will become the most vilified generation in human history” Dr Roger Payne President, Ocean Alliance

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