Corridor Project importance for china and Pakistan

1. 1

2. Politicization of CPEC
Research Analysis Group-I
Ms. Sobia Mazhar (Leader)
Mr. Athar Naveed
Mr. Zubair Ahmed Channa
Mr. Naveed Rehmat
Advisor: Mr. Abdul Sammad Channa (ADS)

3. Sequence
Introduction
Apprehensions / Grievances of Provinces
Sindh Province
Balochistan Province
Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa Province
Efforts to Scuttle CPEC
 Socio Economic Impact of CPEC
Recommendations
Strategies
Conclusion
3

4. INTRODUCTION
By:
MS. SOBIA MAZHAR

6. Introduction
• Closed Strategic Allies
• CPEC 45.651 billion $ mega
project
• Upgrade and expand infrastructure
• Transit route facility
• Exim Bank of China
• 11 billion $ at 1.6% interst rate for infrastructure
6

7. Proposed Routes
7
Western
Route
Cont’d…..

8. 8
Central
Route
Cont’d…..
Proposed Routes

9. 9
Eastern
Route
Cont’d…..
Proposed Routes

10. Salient Features
• Transport Infrastructure
• Telecommunications
• Energy Sector
• Intelligence sharing
• Gas pipelines
• China’s strategic ambitions
• “game and fate changer “
10

11. Phases of completion
• Early Harvest Projects (2018)
• Short-Term Projects (2020)
• Mid-Term Projects (2025)
• Long-Term Projects (2030)
• Three Official Forums have been established for
CPEC:
– Joint Cooperation Committee (JCC).
– Joint Working Group (JWG).
– Steering Committee
11

12. PROVINCE OF SINDH AND CPEC
By:
MS. SOBIA MAZHAR

13. • Second largest province of Pakistan in terms of
population
• Nearly 52 per cent of its population in the rural
areas.
• The rural-urban poverty gap in Sindh is high
• The bulk of the rural population is said to be
living below the poverty line
13

14. ISSUES/PROBLEMS
• Employment opportunities are limited
• Mainly agricultural sector
• Safe drinking water
• Sanitation facilities
– 31% of country’s rural population connected to
the drainage system, in Sindh only only 14 %
– Only 10 per cent of them have access to proper
sanitation facilities
14

15.  Energy Sector - 10,400 MW
15
Cont’d…..ENERGY SECTOR

16. “Thar Coal is the future of Pakistan. The
country’s energy security will depend on Thar
Coal.”
Younus Dhaga
Secretary W&P Islamabad
16

17. • Thar Coal Power Project
• Port Qasim Coal Fired Project
• Wind Power Projects: Dawood Wind Farm (50
MW), UEP Wind Farm (100MW), Sachal Wind Farm
(50 MW), Sunnec Wind Farm (50 MW), Pakistan
Wind Farm (2X50 MW)
• Thar Mine Mouth Power Project By Oracle, Thar
Sindh
Energy Projects of Sindh-CPEC
17

18. Apprehensions/Reservations
Keti Bandar Port not Part of CPEC
Keti Bundar Port the Chief Minister Sindh
Syed Qaim Ali Shah
near to Thar Coal mine
special terminal
Acquisition Of Land
18

19. PROVINCE OF BALOCHISTAN AND
CPEC
By:
MR. ATHER NAVEED

20. CPEC - BALUCHISTAN
Gwadar Free Economic Zone – Generate Employment /
Economic activity
 Construction of East-Bay Expressway, Gwadar Port
 Pak-China Technical and Vocational Institute at Gwadar
 Dredging of Berthing Areas and Channels, Gwadar Port
New Gwadar International Airport-Connectivity with world
Gwader Coal Power Project, 300 MW
HUBCO Coal Power Plant, 1320 MW
Gadani Power Park Project 1320 MW

21. Baluchistan’s Apprehensions-Root Cause
Poverty stricken area
Inter Provincial confidence deficit
Sub-Nationalistic elements
Socioeconomic disparity
Low human development index provides
Failure of Successive Governments –
Federal/Provincial

22. Apprehensions about CPEC
Fear of Demographic changes.
No share of local people in economic benefits of
project.
Route Controversy-Pro Eastern tilt of federal
government
Decisions in Multi-Party Conference (MPC):
 Demand for Contract of Gwadar Mega Projects to
province
 Federal Government to adhere decisions taken in APC
of 28th May 2015.

23. Route Controversy-GoB Stance
Decision of APC of May 28, 2015 on route must be completed
on priority.
Modified Western Route should pass through:
Gwadar-Turbat-Hoshab-Panjgur-Besima-Kalat-Quetta-Qila
Saifullah-Zhob-Dera Ismail Khan-Mianwali-Attock-Hasanabdal-
and upwards.
Suggest two loops attached with Western Route:
 Dera Ismail Khan-Sarghoda-Lahore to connect with the Lahore-
Karachi Motorway.
 Khuzdar-Ratodero-Sukkur to connect with the Lahore-Karachi
Motorway.

24. PROVINCE OF KHYBER
PAKHTOONKHWA AND CPEC
By:
ZUBAIR AHMED CHANNA

25. “This Government wont allow the China-
Pakistan Economic Corridor to pass through the
province if center denied the due share in its
route to latter”
Pervez Khattak
CM Khyber Pakhtoon Khwa
3rd January 2016 Dawn News
25

26. “Pakistan does not look like a federation today
as one province (Punjab) is dominating
others….”
Sikandar Hayat Khan Sherpao
Qaumi Watan Party KPK
3rd January 2016 Dawn News
26

27. KPK Province and CPEC
• Third most populous administrative unit
• Hub of Renewable Energy Resources
• Catchment area of main water bodies of country
• 20% (600 km) of CPEC route (DIK to Pindi &
Abotabad to Chillas) crosses through KPK
• Less than 5% route (Western Alignment) crosses
Punjab province
• CPEC Crosses through under developed but
resource rich area of province (oil and gas reserves)
27

28. CPEC Projects in KPK
• Total 31 projects shortlisted in CPEC (US $45.65
Bn)
• Only two projects for KPK
– Thakot-Havelian section of Karakoram Highway (US $
0.93 Bn)
– Suki Kinari Hydro Power Project (US $ 1.8 Bn)
• Only 5% of total cost being spent in KPK
Reference: Ministry of Planning Division Islamabad28

29. CPEC Route in KPK
Reference: Planning Department Govt of KPK29

30. GRIEVANCES/APPREHENSIONS
30

31. Low Share of Province
• Out of 30 Project-Early Harvest Phase only 02
projects for KPK
• Only 9% of US $27.65 Bn
31

32. Low Priority to Hydro Power Projects
Source
of Energy
Per Unit
Cost (MW)
Time
for Completion
Operating
cost
Hydro Power 3 Million US $ 4-8 Years Rs 1 Per Unit
Thermal 1 Million US $ 1-2 Years Rs 7-8 Per Unit
Coal 1 Million US $ 1-2 Years Rs 7-8 Per Unit32

33. Route Controversy
• Controversy started when a federal minister
supported Eastern Route.
• NHA declared Western/Central Route as
Priority Route
• KPK proposed inclusion of Fateh Jung, Jand,
Karak and Kohat in the alignment
• New Proposed area-Oil Rich and Gas Fields
33

34. Mega Projects Missed
• Missed Mega Projects of Socio-Economic
Importance:
– Sawat Motorway Project (Road)
– CRBC (Irrigation of 250,000 acres land)
– Shogo Sin & Shushgai Hydro Power Projects
(Energy)
– Special Economic Zones in KPK ignored
34

35. Lack of Information Sharing
• MoUs / Agreements inked so far not shared
• No consultations while prioritizing project
• Repayment schedule of loans not disclosed
• Impact of loan on Debt to GDP ratio not
disclosed / debated
35

36. EFFORTS TO SCUTTLE THE MEGA
PROJECT

37. • History is witness Kalabagh Dam, Bhasha Dam
• KPK assembly adopted a resolution
• Certain NGOs, Think Tank
• Plight of masses
• China’s imperialist designs
• ANP , BNP, JUI,PTI
• Nationalists
• control over resources,
• minority
37

38. • Thorn in the paw for the Adversaries of
Pakistan
• India, USA, UAE
• Sudden upsurge in acts of terror
• 49 personals including 33 FC Personals
and policemen
• Security issues
• Separatists groups
• Baluchistan Liberation Army and
Jundallah, which have carried out bombings.
• Azad Kashmir, foreign hostile agencies
38

39. SOCIO ECONOMIC IMPACT OF
CPEC
By:
MR. NAVEED REHMAT

40. S# Sector
Punjab
(No./US$
Bn)
Sindh
(No./US$
Bn)
KPK
(No./US$
Bn)
Baluchistan
(No./US$
Bn)
AJK
(No./US$
Bn)
UMBRELLA
(No./US$
Bn)
TOTAL
(No./US$
Bn)
1 Energy 5/6.47 10/8.07 1/1.8 1/0.4 1/1.42 - 18/18.16
2 Transport 1/1.6 - 1/0.93 2/0.36 - 2/6.29 6/9.18
3 S&T 2/0.007 - - - - - 2/0.007
4 WatSan - - - 1/0.13 - - 1/0.13
5 Health - - - 1/0.10 - - 1/0.1
6 Trade - - - 1/0.06 - 1/0.06
7 Education - - - 1/0.01 - - 1/0.01
8 Others - - - - - - 1/18.004
TOTAL 8/8.077 10/8.07 2/2.73 7/1.06 1/1.42 2/6.29 31/45.65
Sector Wise Allocation
40

41. Existing Socio-economic Conditions of Areas Under
CPEC
• Terrorism/Insurgency in all provinces especially K-B
• Joblessness
• Poverty
• Poor Infrastructure
• Poor communication means
• Lack of Basic Facilities especially in Baluchistan
– (Health Education, Water, Sewerage and personal
Hygiene etc.
• Lack of Energy
41

42. Impact of CPEC
• Investment
• 30 projects worth US $ 27.73 bn in the Early
Harvest Phase
• Total FDI since 1970 = CPEC Invst in next 15 years
• Infrastructure
• Production
• Allied economic activities
42

43. • GDP
• Unemployment
• Income level - Per Capita Income
• Poverty
• Better education, health
• Standard of Living
• Human Index
Impact CPEC
43

44. • Development of Gwadar
• Industrial Sector
• Special Economic Zones
• CPEC has opened vista of great opportunities
for Pakistan
• Every province will be beneficiary
• Baluchistan and KPK will have more benefits
Impact CPEC
44

45. • Corridor needs to be economic not purely
strategic for one partner
• Cost – benefit analysis
• No political or personal whims
• Negotiations to employee as many locals as
possible
• Indigenous Financing
• Tax base
• Banking System
• Transparency
CHALLENGES
45

46. RECOMMENDATIONS
46

47. • Consistency and continuation on NAP
• Investment conducive environment
• Frequent meetings of Steering Committee to
address grievances
• MoUs/Agreements to be shared with
Stakeholders
• Firm commitment by all parties in support of
CPEC
• Defend project on International Fronts
47

48. IMPLENTATIONS STRATEGY
48

49. S. No Activity Responsibility Resources Time
Period
Outcome
Financial HR Technical
1 De-
Politicization
Federal
Govt/Parliament
- - - One
Year
CBM
2 Unequal
allocation of
Funds
Ministry of
finance and
Planning
One
Year
Reprioritization
of projects and
fixation of DLIs
3 Absence of
Authority at
Provincial
Level
Ministry of
Planning Division
- - - One
year
Separate PMIUs
at Provincial
Level headed by
ACS
4 Projects of
less
importance
placed at
early harvest
phase
Ministry of
Planning
- - - One
year
Reprioritization:
-Roads
-Port Dev
-Energy
-Economic
Zones
-Allied Facilities
SHORT TERM IMPLEMENTATION PLAN
49

50. S. No Activity Responsibility Resources Time
Period
Outcome
Financial HR Technical
1 Security LIAs, IAs, Local
Administrtion
- - - 3
years
Investment
Friendly
Environment
2 Cost
Effective
and
Environmen
t Friendly
Energy
Projects not
on priority
Ministry of
Planning/ Water &
Power
- - - 3-5
years
Hydel and
Renewable
energy projects
to be given
priority
3 SEZs in
Small
Provinces
Ministry of
Planning /Finance
- - - 3-5 Provinces to
shortlist SEZs at
strategic
location of CPEC
MEDIUM / LONG TERM IMPLEMENTATION PLAN
50

51. 51

52. CONCLUSION
"The new Peking Man has a singular goal -
to double, triple and quadruple China's $4
Trillion GDP by 2050. And, any country that
can help China go where it wants to go is a
friend - or you are on your own.”
ANALYSIS OF THE CPEC
AROOJ NAVEED PhD CANDIDATE
SOUTH ASIA VOICES
52

53. 53

54. MOBILE APPLICATION-CPEC POL
SURVEY
54

55. Thank You

56. # Sectors/Projects
No. of
Projects
Investment
(US $ Million)
Output
Sector Wise Allocation
Source: Ministry of Planning, Development and Reforms
http://www.pc.gov.pk/?page_id=5352 Accessed on 28 Feb, 2016
1 Energy 24 34413 17045 MW
2
Transport and
Infrastructure (Roads) 2 6100 832 km
3 Railway 2 3690 1736 km
4 Gwadar Port Projects 8 793 construction
5
Others (Optical Fiber and
Digital terrestrial
Multimedia Broadcast-
DTMB)
02 44 developemnt
56

57. PROBLEM Solution Implementation Strategy
1) Politicization Confidence Building
Measures (CBMs)
Sharing of Information with
Stakeholders
2) Unequal
Allocation of Funds
Reprioritization of
Projects and fixation of
DLIs
Release of funds on successful
completion of DLI
3) Absence of
Authority
Establishment of PMIUs
at Provincial level
Devolution of authority by Min
of Planning at Provincial level
4) Less Importance
projects placed in
early phase
Reprioritization of
Projects in consultation
with Prov.
Prioritize projects as:
• Road Infr Structure
• Port Development
• Energy Projects
• Economic Zones
• Other Projects
• Railway Network
5) Law and Order
and Security Issue
Elimination of terrorism
/CBM with local
populace
Empower LEAs and IAs.
Employment avenues for local
population 57

58. PROBLEM Solution Implementation Strategy
1) Cost Effective
and Environment
Friendly Power
Project not
included
EIA of all potential
projects before
implementation
Renewable Energy like
Hydel/Wind may be given
preference on Thermal
2) SEZs not given
priority
SEZs in strategic
location of CPEC route
SEZs to be included in third
phase of CPEC or special
PSDP allocation may be
earmarked for provinces to
establish SEZs
MEDIUM TERM IMPLENETATION STRATEGY
58