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Manoj discussant PhD Conference 2012


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Manoj discussant PhD Conference 2012

  1. 1. Export   Performance   on   Landlocked   Developing   Countries:   A   Discussion   on   Ramesh  Paudel’s  Paper     By   Manoj  K.  Pandey  
  2. 2. About  the  Paper   Objec&ve   is   to   examine   the   determinants   of   export  performance  in  landlocked  developing   countries   and   compare   these   performances   with  other  developing  countries    
  3. 3. Approach   1.  Augumented   Gravity   Model   Specifica&on:   Ln(Xij,t)=F(Ln(GDPi,t),  Ln(GDPj,t),  Ln(Disij),  RERi,t,   Ln(PCGDPi,t),  Ln(PCGDPj,t),  D_LANij,t,  D_BORij,t  ,   Rela&ve   Factor   Endowmenti,t,   D_Openi,t,   AFLLOCKj,t)   2.  Focus  only  on  Non-­‐oil  exports  for  Landlocked   and  other  developing  countries  
  4. 4. Approach   3.  Empirical  Evidences:  Cross-­‐country  data  from   developing   countries   over   the   period   1995-­‐2010  (15  year  panel)   4.  Econometric  methods:  POLS,  RE,  FE,  Hausman   and  Taylor  IV  (HT),  Poisson  Pseudo  Maximum   Likelihood  (PPML)  
  5. 5. Key  Results   1.  LLDCs’   export   performance   seems   poor   as   compared  to  ODCs.     2.  Among   LLDCs’,   export   performance   ma`er   more  to  the  poorer  countries   3.  Distance  deter  the  exports   4.  African  LLDCs  are  at  par  with  other  LLDCs  
  6. 6. Grey  Areas   A.    Use  of  Proper  model  specificaIon   1.  Mo&va&on  behind  choice  of  only  non-­‐oil  exports  is  not   very  clear?   2.  Popula&on  of  export  countries  and  their  partner   countries  are  not  included  (supply  and  demand  side)??   3.  Why    Log  of  GDP  and  Log  of  PCGDP  are  used  together   in  the  same  model?  Mathema&cally,  log(GDP)  and   log(GDP/Popula&on)  is  connected  as  b1  log(GDP)  +b2   log(GDP/Popula&on)  =(b1+b2)log(GDP)  -­‐b2log(Pop)   4.  Table  7,  8:  why  interac&on  of  landlocked  dummy  and   GDP  of  own  country  and  GDP  of  partner  country  are   not  used  together  in  the  model?  
  7. 7. Grey  Areas   B.  Econometric  Results   1.  RFE   =|Import   Country   GDP-­‐Export   Country   GDP|??   In   Table   7,   I   am   not   sure   how   to   explain  –ve  sign  of  RFE?   2.  Table  8,  signs  of  percapita  GDP  is  not  same  in   HT  (+ve)  AND  PPML  (-­‐ve).  Why  it  is  so?   3.  Table   9,   what   is   the   actual   (aier   adjus&ng   interac&on   term)   coefficient   of   Landlocked   dummy  in  4th  PPML  model?   4.  Table   10,   sign   of   partner’s   per   capita   GDP   is   not  consistent  in  different  models’  
  8. 8. Final  Comment   The   paper   contributes   to   the   empirical   literature   by   using   Gravity   model   framework   to   examine   determinants   of   Non-­‐oil  exports  and  compare  performances   of   LLDC’s   with   the   ODCs   based   on   panel   data  econometric  methods.  However,  most   of  the  determinants  look  obvious,  some  of   results  are  not  robust  and  overall  the  paper   lacks  in-­‐depth  analysis  on  the  policy  front.    
  9. 9. Thank  You