Cooperation, conflict and complexity;
India’s hydro-hegemony in South Asia and challenges and
opportunities for water inte...
Agenda

2
Agenda
• Why water in South Asia?

2
Agenda
• Why water in South Asia?
• How does conflict and cooperation
manifest in water interactions?

2
Agenda
• Why water in South Asia?
• How does conflict and cooperation
manifest in water interactions?
• What is complexity...
Agenda
• Why water in South Asia?
• How does conflict and cooperation
manifest in water interactions?
• What is complexity...
Agenda
• Why water in South Asia?
• How does conflict and cooperation
manifest in water interactions?
• What is complexity...
Water in South Asia

3
Water in South Asia
• Fear of ‘water wars’ prevails

3
Water in South Asia
• Fear of ‘water wars’ prevails
• India is perceived as a water
bully

3
Water in South Asia
• Fear of ‘water wars’ prevails
• India is perceived as a water
bully
• Lack of meaningful
multilatera...
Conflict & cooperation

4
Conflict & cooperation
Water wars are
inevitable!

4
Conflict & cooperation
Water wars are
inevitable!

Bah humbug!
Water is a vector
for peace!

4
Conflict & cooperation
Water wars are
inevitable!

Bah humbug!
Water is a vector
for peace!

• Cooperation ≠ absence of co...
Conflict & cooperation
Water wars are
inevitable!

Bah humbug!
Water is a vector
for peace!

• Cooperation ≠ absence of co...
Complexity

5
Complexity

• Complex ≠
complicated

5
India’s hydro-hegemony

6
India’s hydro-hegemony
Dominance ≠ Hegemony ≠ Leadership

6
India’s hydro-hegemony
Dominance ≠ Hegemony ≠ Leadership
India + Nepal = missed opportunities

6
India’s hydro-hegemony
Dominance ≠ Hegemony ≠ Leadership
India + Nepal = missed opportunities
India + Bhutan = positive su...
India’s hydro-hegemony
Dominance ≠ Hegemony ≠ Leadership
India + Nepal = missed opportunities
India + Bhutan = positive su...
India’s hydro-hegemony
Dominance ≠ Hegemony ≠ Leadership
India + Nepal = missed opportunities
India + Bhutan = positive su...
India’s hydro-hegemony
Dominance ≠ Hegemony ≠ Leadership
India + Nepal = missed opportunities
India + Bhutan = positive su...
India’s hydro-hegemony
Dominance ≠ Hegemony ≠ Leadership
India + Nepal = missed opportunities
India + Bhutan = positive su...
India’s hydro-hegemony
Dominance ≠ Hegemony ≠ Leadership
India + Nepal = missed opportunities
India + Bhutan = positive su...
Challenges & opportunities

7
Challenges & opportunities
• Fears of ‘water wars’

7
Challenges & opportunities
• Fears of ‘water wars’
• False dichotomy of
conflict/cooperation

7
Challenges & opportunities
• Fears of ‘water wars’
• False dichotomy of
conflict/cooperation

• Nuanced
understanding of w...
Challenges & opportunities
• Fears of ‘water wars’
• False dichotomy of
conflict/cooperation

• Nuanced
understanding of w...
Paula.Hanasz@anu.edu.au
@paulahanasz

8
Is India a hydro-hegemon?
Pillars of Hydro Hegemony

Power
• Political
• Economic
• Military

Riparian
position

Potential...
What are water interactions?
Confrontation of
the issue

Conflict intensity

Low

Ad hoc

Nonpoliticised

Technical

Risk ...
Case study: India-Nepal TWINS
Confrontation of
the issue

Conflict intensity

Low

Ad hoc

Technical

Nonpoliticised

Risk...
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Cooperation, conflict and complexity; India’s hydro-hegemony in South Asia and challenges and opportunities for water interactions

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Cooperation, conflict and complexity; India’s hydro-hegemony in South Asia and challenges and opportunities for water interactions

  1. 1. Cooperation, conflict and complexity; India’s hydro-hegemony in South Asia and challenges and opportunities for water interactions Paula Hanasz PhD candidate Australian National University Crawford School of Public Policy
  2. 2. Agenda 2
  3. 3. Agenda • Why water in South Asia? 2
  4. 4. Agenda • Why water in South Asia? • How does conflict and cooperation manifest in water interactions? 2
  5. 5. Agenda • Why water in South Asia? • How does conflict and cooperation manifest in water interactions? • What is complexity? 2
  6. 6. Agenda • Why water in South Asia? • How does conflict and cooperation manifest in water interactions? • What is complexity? • Who does India’s hydro-hegemony affect? 2
  7. 7. Agenda • Why water in South Asia? • How does conflict and cooperation manifest in water interactions? • What is complexity? • Who does India’s hydro-hegemony affect? • Where do the challenges and opportunities lie? 2
  8. 8. Water in South Asia 3
  9. 9. Water in South Asia • Fear of ‘water wars’ prevails 3
  10. 10. Water in South Asia • Fear of ‘water wars’ prevails • India is perceived as a water bully 3
  11. 11. Water in South Asia • Fear of ‘water wars’ prevails • India is perceived as a water bully • Lack of meaningful multilateralism 3
  12. 12. Conflict & cooperation 4
  13. 13. Conflict & cooperation Water wars are inevitable! 4
  14. 14. Conflict & cooperation Water wars are inevitable! Bah humbug! Water is a vector for peace! 4
  15. 15. Conflict & cooperation Water wars are inevitable! Bah humbug! Water is a vector for peace! • Cooperation ≠ absence of conflict 4
  16. 16. Conflict & cooperation Water wars are inevitable! Bah humbug! Water is a vector for peace! • Cooperation ≠ absence of conflict • ‘water interactions’ better conveys complexity 4
  17. 17. Complexity 5
  18. 18. Complexity • Complex ≠ complicated 5
  19. 19. India’s hydro-hegemony 6
  20. 20. India’s hydro-hegemony Dominance ≠ Hegemony ≠ Leadership 6
  21. 21. India’s hydro-hegemony Dominance ≠ Hegemony ≠ Leadership India + Nepal = missed opportunities 6
  22. 22. India’s hydro-hegemony Dominance ≠ Hegemony ≠ Leadership India + Nepal = missed opportunities India + Bhutan = positive sum outcomes 6
  23. 23. India’s hydro-hegemony Dominance ≠ Hegemony ≠ Leadership India + Nepal = missed opportunities India + Bhutan = positive sum outcomes India + Pakistan = securitisation of water 6
  24. 24. India’s hydro-hegemony Dominance ≠ Hegemony ≠ Leadership India + Nepal = missed opportunities India + Bhutan = positive sum outcomes India + Pakistan = securitisation of water India + Bangladesh = corrosive disinterest 6
  25. 25. India’s hydro-hegemony Dominance ≠ Hegemony ≠ Leadership India + Nepal = missed opportunities India + Bhutan = positive sum outcomes India + Pakistan = securitisation of water India + Bangladesh = corrosive disinterest -------------------------------------------------------- 6
  26. 26. India’s hydro-hegemony Dominance ≠ Hegemony ≠ Leadership India + Nepal = missed opportunities India + Bhutan = positive sum outcomes India + Pakistan = securitisation of water India + Bangladesh = corrosive disinterest -------------------------------------------------------GRAND TOTAL = neutral interactions 6
  27. 27. India’s hydro-hegemony Dominance ≠ Hegemony ≠ Leadership India + Nepal = missed opportunities India + Bhutan = positive sum outcomes India + Pakistan = securitisation of water India + Bangladesh = corrosive disinterest -------------------------------------------------------GRAND TOTAL = neutral interactions ≠ water wars 6
  28. 28. Challenges & opportunities 7
  29. 29. Challenges & opportunities • Fears of ‘water wars’ 7
  30. 30. Challenges & opportunities • Fears of ‘water wars’ • False dichotomy of conflict/cooperation 7
  31. 31. Challenges & opportunities • Fears of ‘water wars’ • False dichotomy of conflict/cooperation • Nuanced understanding of water interactions 7
  32. 32. Challenges & opportunities • Fears of ‘water wars’ • False dichotomy of conflict/cooperation • Nuanced understanding of water interactions • Indian leadership of multilateral transboundary water management 7
  33. 33. Paula.Hanasz@anu.edu.au @paulahanasz 8
  34. 34. Is India a hydro-hegemon? Pillars of Hydro Hegemony Power • Political • Economic • Military Riparian position Potential for water resource exploitation Relative size Political/economic/military power Riparian position Potential for water resource exploitation 9
  35. 35. What are water interactions? Confrontation of the issue Conflict intensity Low Ad hoc Nonpoliticised Technical Risk averting Risk-taking cooperation Positive interactions Neutral interactions Politicised Securitised/ Opportunitised Negative interactions Violised High Low Cooperation intensity High TWINS amended from N. Mirumachi and J.A. Allan, 2007, ‘Revisiting Transboundary Water Governance: Power, Conflict, Cooperation and the Political Economy’ and M. Zeitoun and N. Mirumachi, 2008, ‘Transboundary water interaction 1: reconsidering conflict and cooperation’ 10
  36. 36. Case study: India-Nepal TWINS Confrontation of the issue Conflict intensity Low Ad hoc Technical Nonpoliticised Risk averting Risk-taking cooperation Positive interactions 2008 Neutral interactions 1990 Politicised 1950 1920 1996 ’50s ‘60s Securitised/ Opportunitised Negative interactions Violised High Low Cooperation intensity High 11

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