Macro Synopsis by Anric Blatt

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Food, water, energy and metals are the drivers of industrial, economic and social growth. As the world's popula;on rises and the clamor for higher living standards gets louder, so too the struggle for resource access intensifies.

This concise look at the world's most imminent crisis could also turn into one of the most compelling investment themes. Presentation uploaded by Anric Blatt

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Macro Synopsis by Anric Blatt

  1. 1. CRISISANDOPPORTUNITY Unique, Rare & Time Sensitive GLOBAL FUND EXCHANGE HOLDINGS LLCWednesday, August 29, 12 1
  2. 2. Executive Summary Food,%water,%energy%and%metals%are%the%drivers%of%industrial,%economic%and%social%growth.%As%the%worlds%popula;on% rises%and%the%clamor%for%higher%living%standards%gets%louder,%so%too%the%struggle%for%resource%access%intensifies.% For%centuries,%the%West%has%controlled%much%of%the%resources%flow,%but%now%China,%India,%Russia,%Brazil,%Indonesia,% Turkey,%the%Middle%East%and%a%host%of%other%na;ons%want%their%share.% whether%it%is%water%from%the%Nile,%Colorado%or%the%YarlungKZangboKBrahmaputra;% rice%from%the%Mekong%Delta,%oil%from%the%Middle%East,%coal%from%Africa,%gas%from%Russia,% rare%earths%from%China,%iron%ore%from%the%Australian%outback,%phosphates%from%Morocco uranium%from%Namibia%and%Kazakhstan,%or%shale%from%North%America,% these%resources%are%in%limited%supply%and%valuable. The%worlds%geopoli;cs%will%be%shaped%by%the%global%race%for%four%strategic%resources:%food,%water,%energy%and%metals.% The%simultaneous%development%and%rising%aspira;ons%of%the%worlds%mul;%billionKplus%inhabitants%has%awoken%us%to% the%limits%of%the%earth.%The%scale%of%demand%from%China,%La;n%America%and%India%for%food,%water,%energy%and%minerals,% has%already%reshaped%the%global%economy.%Africa,%too,%is%about%to%wake%up%demographically%in%a%way%that%will%surprise% the%world. This%crisis%for%mankind%and%our%planet%is%simultaneously%our%greatest%challenge%going%forward,%as%well%as%a%once%in%a% life;me%investment%opportunity%for%visionary%investors. The%;ming%is%ideal,%the%opportunity%is%evident%and%Global%Fund%Exchange%is%the%right%partner 2Wednesday, August 29, 12 2
  3. 3. Contents 1 The Macro Opportunity 2 The Company 3 The Products 4 The OpportunityWednesday, August 29, 12 3
  4. 4. 1 The Macro Opportunity Unprecedented Population Growth coupled with ENERGY Food and water security Water stress and scarcity Rising energy consumption / per capita Rising real incomes 7"BILLION"HUMANS" Urbanization & Industrialization WITH"EVER" 9"BILLION"HUMANS" Increasing calorie and protein intake INCREASING"ENERGY," WITH"EVER" Weather disrupted by climate change WATER"AND"FOOD" INCREASING"ENERGY," REQUIREMENTS WATER"AND"FOOD" Droughts / Floods / Shortages W D REQUIREMENTS AT Geopolitical unrest O FO E will provide greater disruptions and R investment opportunities than any other period in history 4Wednesday, August 29, 12 4
  5. 5. 1 The Macro Opportunity Population growth & arable land Global%popula;on%has%grown%exponen;ally%in%the%last%decades 2.5%Billion%in%1950,%5B%in%1987,%7B%in%2011 Population in Billions Expected%to%grow%to%8%Billion%over%coming%decade,% Arable Land in hectares / person 9 9%Billion%by%2040 7 Availability%of%arable%land%per%person%has%sharply%fallen%off% Global:%from%0.37%hectares%per%person%in%1960%to%less%than%0.2%today 5 North%America:%from%1.1.%hectares%per%person%to%0.7%today 2 Simultaneously,%we%are%consuming%ever%more%water,%energy% 0 and%food%per%capita%with%uncontrollable%growth%in%carbon% 1950 footprint 1987 Today 2040 5Wednesday, August 29, 12 5
  6. 6. 80 1 The Macro Opportunity Energy NonKOECD%countries%account%for%vast%majority%of%the% nearly%50%%projected%increase%in%global%energy%use%by% 600 2035 Vastly%different%energy%mix,%including%alterna;ves%will%have% 400 to%deliver%this%increase Bridge%period%where%tradi;onal%fossil%fuels%become%cleaner% 200 and%more%energy%efficient%and%alterna;ve%energies% become%more%mainstream%and%financially%efficient%will% 2015 generate%significant%profit%opportuni;es 2020 2025 0 2030 2035 USA OECD w/o U.S. Non OECD Energy Consumption 6Wednesday, August 29, 12 6
  7. 7. 1 The Macro Opportunity Food 700 The%amount%of%food%needed%to%feed%a%growing%world%popula;on% over%the%next%40%years%will%equal%the%total%amount%of%food%already% produced%over%the%last%10,000%years. 525 Simultaneously%the%amount%of%arable%land%per%person%is%shrinking Exacerbated%by%the%ever%increasing%threats%of%water%scarcity 350 Climate%change%is%increasing%the%frequency% and%severity%of%weather%disrup;ons 175 In%some%countries,%food%costs%have%risen%%% to%40%%of%monthly%budget 1970 1980 1990 Food%insecurity%already%toppling% 2000 2010 2020 governments POPULATION AVERAGE CALORIES PER PERSON * 2030 2040 0 FEED GRAIN NEEDED * All indexed to 100 in 1970 2050 7Wednesday, August 29, 12 7
  8. 8. 1 6,000 The Macro Opportunity Water While%the%world’s%popula;on%tripled%in%the%20th%century,% the%use%of%renewable%water%resources%has%grown%sixKfold.% 4,500 Within%the%next%figy%years,%the%world%popula;on%will% increase%by%another%40%to%50%%.% 3,000 This%popula;on%growth%–%coupled%with%industrializa;on% and%urbaniza;on%–%will%result%in%an%astounding%increase% in%demand%for%water%and%will%have%serious%consequences% 1,500 on%certain%countries%and%the%environment. The%single%biggest%threat%investment%opportunity 0 1900 1960 1970 1980 2010 2025 Water Consumption in billion m3 / year 8Wednesday, August 29, 12 8
  9. 9. 1 The Macro Opportunity Why now ?15 By 2030 Projected Water and These%vital%industries%are%already%seeing%record%flows%of% Energy Investments in $ Trillions investment%capital,%new%orders%and%profit%opportuni;es.%% Demand%for%water%&%energy%infrastructure,%technology%and% 11 services%is%growing%at%exponen;al%rates%while%supply%has% remained%rela;vely%constant%and%inelas;c. 8 By%2030%%$%26%Trillion%projected%investment%in%energy%infrastructure By%2030%$%22%Trillion%projected%investment%in%water%infrastructure 4 To%avoid%poli;cal%turmoil%and%regime%changes,% governments%have%no%choice%but%to%con;nue%inves;ng%in% 0 food,%water%and%energy%infrastructure Africa Middle East SouthAmerica Europe Asia NorthAmerica 9Wednesday, August 29, 12 9
  10. 10. Contents 1 The Macro Opportunity 2 The Company 3 The Products 4 The OpportunityWednesday, August 29, 12 10
  11. 11. 2 The Company The first company to offer dedicated multi manager portfolios Global Fund Exchange focusing on energy, water, food and other scarce vital assets Our%passion%is%inves;ng%in%the%future%of%our%planet%and%the%most%compelling%mega%macro% trends%facing%our%world%today. Our%goal%is%to%provide%our%investors%with%the%ability%to%par;cipate%in%these%opportuni;es,% while%significantly%reducing%the%extreme%vola;lity%normally%associated%with%these%markets. We%prudently%manage%the%collec;ve%exper;se%and%resources%of%some%of%the%worlds% premier%niche%managers%focused%on%energy,%agriculture,%water%and%scarce%resources.% Comprising%over%100%years%of%collec;ve%experience,%the%team%of%experts%at%Global%Fund% Exchange%provides%inKdepth%macro%strategy%research,%pormolio%management,%due% diligence,%repor;ng,%transparency%and%risk%management. “%In%order%to%have%an%even%greater%impact,%a%por;on%of%our%profits%from%your%investment%will%be%dedicated%to%a%worthy% charity%focused%on%the%needs%of%humanity”%Lauralouise%Duffy,%August%2012 11Wednesday, August 29, 12 11
  12. 12. Contents 1 The Macro Opportunity 2 The Company 3 The Products 4 The OpportunityWednesday, August 29, 12 12
  13. 13. 3 The Products AQUA"TERRA"FUND WATER,"FOOD"&"NATURAL"RESOURCES EARTH"WIND"&"FIRE"FUND MULTI"MANAGER"MULTI"STRATEGY" 13Wednesday, August 29, 12 13
  14. 14. 3 The Products Why Multi Manager ? 1 Niche focused specialists; expertly managed & blended 2 Reduced risk, volatility & drawdown; higher consistency 3 Actively managed opportunity matrix; flexibility & diversity 4 Qualitative, quantitative & forensic research 14Wednesday, August 29, 12 14
  15. 15. 3 The Products Why Multi Manager ? 15Wednesday, August 29, 12 15
  16. 16. Contents 1 The Macro Opportunity 2 The Company 3 The Products 4 The OpportunityWednesday, August 29, 12 16
  17. 17. 4 The Opportunity MACRO ENVIRONMENT SET FOR GLOBAL INSTITUTIONAL A “PERFECT STORM” OF INVESTOR MANDATES OPPORTUNITY MANY INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS ARE ACTIVELY EXPONENTIAL POPULATION GROWTH SEARCHING FOR REAL ASSETS, WATER INVESTMENTS, ENERGY WATER SCARCITY - FOOD SECURITY - DIET CHANGES DIVERSIFICATION, AGRICULTURE AND RESOURCE CLIMATE CHANGE - VOLATILE WEATHER INVESTMENTS INELASTIC SUPPLY OF ENERGY & RESOURCES VERY FEW DEDICATED AND EXPERIENCED MANAGERS IN GEOPOLITICAL RISKS - FIAT CURRENCY PRINTING THIS SPACE ESTABLISHED BUSINESS READY TO BENEFIT FROM THESE OPPORTUNITIES ACT NOW THE TIMING IS PERFECT EXPERIENCED TEAM - EXCELLENT TRACK RECORD LEAVE A LEGACY BY BEING A PART OF THE GREATEST TOP TIER OPERATIONS & INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY OF OUR TIME 5 YEARS AHEAD OF COMPETITORS THE HARDEST WORK HAS BEEN DONE 17Wednesday, August 29, 12 17
  18. 18. Closing Thoughts We%are%five%years%into%a%severe%global%food%crisis%that%is%very% unlikely%to%go%away.%It%will%threaten%poor%countries%with%increased% malnutri;on%and%starva;on%and%even%collapse.%Resource%squabbles% and%waves%of%foodKinduced%migra;on%will%threaten%global%stability% and%global%growth.%This%threat%is%badly%underes;mated%by%almost% Thirty%percent%of%the%worlds%arable%land%will%be%unusable%by%2020% everybody%and%all%ins;tu;ons%with%the%possible%excep;on%of%some% due%to%excessive%salt%in%the%soil.%Figy%percent%may%be%unusable%by% military%establishments.%Jeremy&Grantham&co.founder&of&GMO 2050.%Woodley&B&Preucil We%are%intensely%concerned%that%global%money%managers%are% The%global%agriculture%industry%will%have%to%supply,%as%much%food%as% woefully%unprepared%for%peak%oil%and%largely%oblivious%to%the% has%been%produced%during%all%of%human%history,%to%meet%human% amount%of%;me,%capital%and%effort%it%will%take%to%mi;gate%the% nutri;onal%needs%over%the%next%four%decades.%FAO problem.%13D&Research,&Inc The%World%Bank%reports%that%80%countries%now%have%water% A%catastrophic%water%shortage%could%prove%an%even%bigger%threat%to% shortages%and%2%billion%people%lack%access%to%clean%water.%More% mankind%this%century%than%soaring%food%prices%and%the%relentless% disturbingly,%the%World%Health%Organiza;on%has%reported%that%1% exhaus;on%of%energy%reserves,%according%to%a%panel%of%global% billion%people%lack%enough%water%to%simply%meet%their%basic%needs.% experts%at%the%Goldman&Sachs&"Top&Five&Risks"&conference. Arlington&InsKtute Climate%change%ranks%as%the%preeminent%danger%to%modern%human% If%current%water%consump;on%trends%con;nue,%by%2025%the% civiliza;on%today.%The%evidence%for%significant%warming%since%the% agricultural%sector%will%experience%serious%water%shortages.%Crop% Industrial%Revolu;on%is%now%irrefutable%and%undeniable.%Nick&Perry losses%due%to%water%scarcity%could%be%as%high%as%350%million%metric% tons%per%year,%slightly%more%than%the%en;re%crop%yield%of%the%U.S.% "I%dont%mind%if%China%has%civil%war,%epidemics,%panics,%depressions,% This%massive%water%crisis%will%be%caused%by%water%contamina;on,% all%of%that.%You%can%recover%from%that.%The%only%thing%you%cannot% diver;ng%water%for%industrial%purposes,%and%the%deple;on%of% recover%from%is%water,%if%China%doesnt%solve%its%water%problems% aquifers.%Climate%change%may%also%play%a%part.%Addi;onally,%many% than%theres%no%China%story.%Theyre%spending%large%amounts%of% aquifers%are%contaminated%each%year%by%pollu;on%and%seawater% money%to%solve%this%problem.&Jim&Rogers intrusion.%InternaKonal&Food&Policy&Research&InsKtute&(IFPRI) 18Wednesday, August 29, 12 18
  19. 19. T h a n k Y O U 19Wednesday, August 29, 12 19

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