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Italy may 2014_v3-ibf


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Presentation GM IBF, Anish Jain - seminar on S&OP organized by Advance School with IBF, may the 20th , Italy

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Italy may 2014_v3-ibf

  1. 1. 1 Fostering  Demand  Planning,  Forecas3ng,  S&OP  for  30+  Years!     Copyright  ©  2014  by  Ins3tute  of  Business  Forecas3ng.  All  rights  reserved   MISSION  STATEMENT:   “To  Foster  the  Growth  of  Demand  Planning,   Forecas9ng,  S&OP,  and  the  Careers  of   those  in  the  Field”  
  2. 2. 2 Fostering  Demand  Planning,  Forecas3ng,  S&OP  for  30+  Years!     Copyright  ©  2014  by  Ins3tute  of  Business  Forecas3ng.  All  rights  reserved   •  Consumers  are  less  loyal   •  Short  life-­‐cycle  products   •  Highly  promoted  products   •  Greater  channels  of  distribu:on   •  Greater  number  of  new  products   •  Greater  number  of  SKU’s  (Expanding  product   porBolio)   •  Longer  lead  :mes  to  produce  goods   •  Greater  compe::on   Today’s Challenges & Risks
  3. 3. 3 Fostering  Demand  Planning,  Forecas3ng,  S&OP  for  30+  Years!     Copyright  ©  2014  by  Ins3tute  of  Business  Forecas3ng.  All  rights  reserved   Agenda  For  Today  
  4. 4. 4 Fostering  Demand  Planning,  Forecas3ng,  S&OP  for  30+  Years!     Copyright  ©  2014  by  Ins3tute  of  Business  Forecas3ng.  All  rights  reserved   •  How  the  S&OP  process  works   •  What  types  of  obstacles  you’re  likely  to  face  with   S&OP  and  how  to  overcome  them   •  What  benefits  companies  have  derived  by   implemen:ng  the  S&OP  process   •  Benchmarking  Research   •  About  the  IBF  and  Cer:fica:on       Agenda  For  Today  
  5. 5. 5 Fostering  Demand  Planning,  Forecas3ng,  S&OP  for  30+  Years!     Copyright  ©  2014  by  Ins3tute  of  Business  Forecas3ng.  All  rights  reserved   BENCHMARKING  RESEARCH  
  6. 6. 6 Fostering  Demand  Planning,  Forecas3ng,  S&OP  for  30+  Years!     Copyright  ©  2014  by  Ins3tute  of  Business  Forecas3ng.  All  rights  reserved   Do  you  have  an  S&OP  process  in  place?  
  7. 7. 7 Fostering  Demand  Planning,  Forecas3ng,  S&OP  for  30+  Years!     Copyright  ©  2014  by  Ins3tute  of  Business  Forecas3ng.  All  rights  reserved   Does  Conflict  of  Interest  Get  in  the  Way  of   Improving  Planning  Performance?   31%   69%  
  8. 8. 8 Fostering  Demand  Planning,  Forecas3ng,  S&OP  for  30+  Years!     Copyright  ©  2014  by  Ins3tute  of  Business  Forecas3ng.  All  rights  reserved   Support  of  TOP  MANAGEMENT  for  S&OP?  
  9. 9. 9 Fostering  Demand  Planning,  Forecas3ng,  S&OP  for  30+  Years!     Copyright  ©  2014  by  Ins3tute  of  Business  Forecas3ng.  All  rights  reserved   How  do  you  measure  S&OP  Effec3veness?   21%   32%   54%   57%   53%   8%  
  10. 10. 10 Fostering  Demand  Planning,  Forecas3ng,  S&OP  for  30+  Years!     Copyright  ©  2014  by  Ins3tute  of  Business  Forecas3ng.  All  rights  reserved   Does  your  company  follow  a  one  set  of   numbers  forecast  philosophy?    
  11. 11. 11 Fostering  Demand  Planning,  Forecas3ng,  S&OP  for  30+  Years!     Copyright  ©  2014  by  Ins3tute  of  Business  Forecas3ng.  All  rights  reserved   How  o`en  do  you  hold  forecast     consensus  mee3ngs?  
  12. 12. 12 Fostering  Demand  Planning,  Forecas3ng,  S&OP  for  30+  Years!     Copyright  ©  2014  by  Ins3tute  of  Business  Forecas3ng.  All  rights  reserved   Which  type  of  data  does  your  company  use   most  in  preparing  forecasts?     31%   71%   37%   7%  
  13. 13. 13 Fostering  Demand  Planning,  Forecas3ng,  S&OP  for  30+  Years!     Copyright  ©  2014  by  Ins3tute  of  Business  Forecas3ng.  All  rights  reserved   Where  does  the  forecas3ng  func3on  reside   within  your  company?     10%   19%   9%   9%   65%   6%   6%  
  14. 14. 14 Fostering  Demand  Planning,  Forecas3ng,  S&OP  for  30+  Years!     Copyright  ©  2014  by  Ins3tute  of  Business  Forecas3ng.  All  rights  reserved  
  15. 15. 15 Fostering  Demand  Planning,  Forecas3ng,  S&OP  for  30+  Years!     Copyright  ©  2014  by  Ins3tute  of  Business  Forecas3ng.  All  rights  reserved   Forecas3ng  Salaries  –  All  Industries  
  16. 16. 16 Fostering  Demand  Planning,  Forecas3ng,  S&OP  for  30+  Years!     Copyright  ©  2014  by  Ins3tute  of  Business  Forecas3ng.  All  rights  reserved   Forecas3ng  Salaries  –  Academic  Backgrounds  
  17. 17. 17 Fostering  Demand  Planning,  Forecas3ng,  S&OP  for  30+  Years!     Copyright  ©  2014  by  Ins3tute  of  Business  Forecas3ng.  All  rights  reserved   Forecas3ng  Salaries  –  Size  of  Companies  
  18. 18. 18 Fostering  Demand  Planning,  Forecas3ng,  S&OP  for  30+  Years!     Copyright  ©  2014  by  Ins3tute  of  Business  Forecas3ng.  All  rights  reserved   Forecas3ng  Salaries  –  So`ware  Used  
  19. 19. 19 Fostering  Demand  Planning,  Forecas3ng,  S&OP  for  30+  Years!     Copyright  ©  2014  by  Ins3tute  of  Business  Forecas3ng.  All  rights  reserved   What IBF Does
  20. 20. 20 Fostering  Demand  Planning,  Forecas3ng,  S&OP  for  30+  Years!     Copyright  ©  2014  by  Ins3tute  of  Business  Forecas3ng.  All  rights  reserved   What IBF Does •  Benchmarking Research •  Journal of Business Forecasting (JBF) •  Global Events & Chapters •  Educational Books •  Membership •  Certification •  Corporate Training •  Assessments
  21. 21. 21 Fostering  Demand  Planning,  Forecas3ng,  S&OP  for  30+  Years!     Copyright  ©  2014  by  Ins3tute  of  Business  Forecas3ng.  All  rights  reserved  
  22. 22. 22 Fostering  Demand  Planning,  Forecas3ng,  S&OP  for  30+  Years!     Copyright  ©  2014  by  Ins3tute  of  Business  Forecas3ng.  All  rights  reserved  
  23. 23. 23 Fostering  Demand  Planning,  Forecas3ng,  S&OP  for  30+  Years!     Copyright  ©  2014  by  Ins3tute  of  Business  Forecas3ng.  All  rights  reserved  
  24. 24. 24 Fostering  Demand  Planning,  Forecas3ng,  S&OP  for  30+  Years!     Copyright  ©  2014  by  Ins3tute  of  Business  Forecas3ng.  All  rights  reserved   ADVANCING  WITH  IBF  
  25. 25. 25 Fostering  Demand  Planning,  Forecas3ng,  S&OP  for  30+  Years!     Copyright  ©  2014  by  Ins3tute  of  Business  Forecas3ng.  All  rights  reserved   IBF  CERTIFICATION  VIDEO   Please  watch  this  youtube  video  by  the  Director  of  Demand   Planning  from  Estee  Lauder:                 hSp://­‐8iE40c  
  26. 26. 26 Fostering  Demand  Planning,  Forecas3ng,  S&OP  for  30+  Years!     Copyright  ©  2014  by  Ins3tute  of  Business  Forecas3ng.  All  rights  reserved   IBF  CERTIFICATION  
  27. 27. 27 Fostering  Demand  Planning,  Forecas3ng,  S&OP  for  30+  Years!     Copyright  ©  2014  by  Ins3tute  of  Business  Forecas3ng.  All  rights  reserved   Companies with IBF Certification (Partial List) Abbott Acuity Brands Lighting ADC Telecommunications Alberto Culver Alcatel-Lucent American Italian Pasta Company American Red Cross American Textile Company Amway Anderson Windows Andrew Corporation Anteon Corp AOL AstraZeneca Aveda Aventis Pharmaceuticals Baker Oil Tools Barnes Distribution BASF Corp Baxter Healthcare Bayer Best Buy Biomarin Black & Decker British Gypsum Brown Forman Capital One Carhartt Cartech Caterpillar Celgene Char-broil Chemtura Chevron Texaco Cisco Systems Cleco, Inc. CNH Global Con Edison Conros Corporation Continental Tire Cooper Lighting Cordis Corning Cable Systems Coty Inc. Cummins Day Spring Cards Dealer Tire Delta Delta Faucet Deluxe Corporation Depuy Orthopaedics DePuy Spine Discover Financial Disney Dorel Juvenile Group Dorman Products Dow Corning Dupont E & J Gallo Winery Canada EAS East Penn Manufacturing Eaton Filtration GmbH Edmund Optics Eircom Elkay EMD Chemicals Emerson Process Emirates Telecommunication Cooperation Emyco ESAB FedEx Fisher Scientific Fruit of the Loom Fuji Photo Film USA Gap GE General Mills Georgia Pacific GlaxoSmithKline Globe Electric Goodyear Graco Children's Products Grundfos Pump Corp. Hanes Brands Heineken Heinz Hewlett Packard Hollister Hypro Pumps Infosys Technologies Ltd Intuit Invitrogen Ipex Inc. John Deere Johnson & Johnson Juno Lighting Group Lafarge North America Land O'Lakes Lifescan Lilly Logitech MAC Manhattan Toy Maple Leaf Foods McCormick Mead Johnson Melaleuca Mepha Ltd. Merrill Lynch Michelin Microsoft Mine Safety Appliances Monster Cable Products Motorola Inc Nature's Path Foods Neiman Marcus Nestle Netjets Nordstrom Norfolk Southern Corporation Noveon Novozymes Nuskin Oberto Ogio, Intl. ON Semiconductor Corp. OnStar Oracle Corporation Panasonic Pepsico Pfizer, Inc. Pharmavite Philip Morris Prevost Parts Primus Canada Procter & Gamble Quantum Corporation Rand McNally Research In Motion Revlon Rich-Sea Pak Corp Roche Diagnostics Rubbermaid Sanford Sappi Fine Paper Sara Lee Sartomer Satyam Saudi Aramco SBC Communications SC Johnson SCA Tissue Scholastic Book Fairs Scunci International Sealed Air Sears Shire Pharmaceuticals Inc Sigma Aldrich Smith & Nephew Sony Spring Industries Standard Textile, Inc. Sun Chemical Syngenta SYSCO Food Systems TastyKake Tektronix Tennant Company Manufacturing Teva Pharmaceuticals Texas A&M University The Boeing Company The Hartz Mountain Corp The Scotts Company The Toro Company Thermatru Timberland T-Mobile Turtle Wax, Inc. Tyson Foods Under Armour Unilever UnitedHealthcare University of Notre Dame USAA USG Victoria's Secret Stores Vi-Jon Laboratories Wal-Mart Stores Walt Disney World Welch's Whirlpool Woodward World Kitchen Wrigley Wyeth Pharmaceuticals Xcel Energy Yokohama Tire Zytec
  28. 28. 28 Fostering  Demand  Planning,  Forecas3ng,  S&OP  for  30+  Years!     Copyright  ©  2014  by  Ins3tute  of  Business  Forecas3ng.  All  rights  reserved   IBF  Cer3fica3on    The  IBF  is  a  pioneer  in  developing  a  Demand  Planning,   Forecas:ng,  and  S&OP  Cer:fica:on  program  that  helps   boost  creden:als,  as  well  as  gives  management  greater   confidence  in  its  people.          The  IBF  offers  two  levels  of  cer:fica:on:     1.  Cer3fied  Professional  Forecaster  (CPF®)   2.  Advanced  Cer3fied  Professional  Forecaster  (ACPF®)  
  29. 29. 29 Fostering  Demand  Planning,  Forecas3ng,  S&OP  for  30+  Years!     Copyright  ©  2014  by  Ins3tute  of  Business  Forecas3ng.  All  rights  reserved   IBF  CPF  Exam  Content  Summary   Exam  1   –  Role  of  Forecas:ng  &  Planning  in  Decision  Making   –  Demand  Planning  (Demand  Sensing,  Shaping,  &  Crea:ng)   –  Forecas:ng  &  Planning  Process   –  Consump:on  (POS  Data)  Based  Forecas:ng  &  Planning   –  Consensus  Forecas:ng  &  Planning   –  Sales  &  Opera:ons  Planning  (S&OP)  Process   –  Collabora:ve,  Planning,  Forecas:ng,  &  Replenishment  (CPFR)     Exam  2   –  Data  Analysis  &  Treatment   –  Fundamentals  of  Models  &  Modeling   –  Types  of  Models   –  Time  Series  Models   –  Model  Selec:on   –  Metrics:  Measuring  Forecast  Error  and  Performance     Exam  3   –  Forecast  Repor:ng  &  Presenta:on   –  Forecast  Communica:on   –  Winning  Support  and  Confidence  of  Management   –  Gaining  Buy-­‐in  from  Stakeholders   –  New  Product  Forecas:ng  
  30. 30. 30 Fostering  Demand  Planning,  Forecas3ng,  S&OP  for  30+  Years!     Copyright  ©  2014  by  Ins3tute  of  Business  Forecas3ng.  All  rights  reserved   CPF  Exams   •  3  Exams  –100  to  150  ques:ons   •  Exams  Taken  Individually  –  Objec:ve  Tests,  Mul:ple  Choice   •  2  Hours  per  Exam   •  CPF  is  earned  when  70%  or  higher  is  scored  for  each  exam   individually  
  31. 31. 31 Fostering  Demand  Planning,  Forecas3ng,  S&OP  for  30+  Years!     Copyright  ©  2014  by  Ins3tute  of  Business  Forecas3ng.  All  rights  reserved   IBF  ACPF  Exam  Content  Summary   Exam  4   –  Regression/  Cause  &  Effect  Models   –  Types  of  Regression  Models     –  Assump:ons  of  a  Simple  Regression  Model   –  Steps  to  Build  a  Regression  Model   –  Diagnos:c  Tools  for  Assessing  Regression  Models   –  Development  and  Applica:on  of  Dummy  Variables  in  Mul:ple  Regression   –  Improving  a  Mul:ple  Regression  Model     –  ARIMA/Box-­‐Jenkins  Modeling   –  Assump:ons  of  ARIMA  Modeling     –  ARIMA  Models  vs.  Regression  Models     –  Types  of  ARIMA  Models   –  Steps  to  Build  an  ARIMA  Model     –  Improving  ARIMA  Models     Exam  5   –  Forecas:ng  &  Planning  Technology   –  Forecas:ng  Package  vs.  Forecas:ng    System     –  Selec:ng  a  Forecas:ng  Package   –  Technology  Capabili:es   –  Scalability   –  Forecas:ng  System  Implementa:on   –  Worst  Prac:ces  in  Forecas:ng  &  Demand  Planning      
  32. 32. 32 Fostering  Demand  Planning,  Forecas3ng,  S&OP  for  30+  Years!     Copyright  ©  2014  by  Ins3tute  of  Business  Forecas3ng.  All  rights  reserved   ACPF  Exams   •  2  Exams   •  Exams  Taken  Individually  –  Objec:ve  Tests  (Mul:ple   Choice)   •  2  Hours  per  Exam   •  Must  be  CPF   •  ACPF  is  earned  when  70%  or  higher  is  scored  for  each  exam   individually    
  33. 33. 33 Fostering  Demand  Planning,  Forecas3ng,  S&OP  for  30+  Years!     Copyright  ©  2014  by  Ins3tute  of  Business  Forecas3ng.  All  rights  reserved   Study  Materials  Provided  &  Prepara3on   •  Study  Materials:  CPF  &  ACPF   –  Fundamentals  of  Demand  Planning  &  Forecas:ng  Book  (inclusive   of  glossary)   •  Prepara:on   –  IBF  Tutorials/  Forecas:ng  Academy   –  IBF  Sta:s:cal  Workshops   –  IBF  In-­‐House  Seminars   –  IBF  Online  Training   –  IBF  Cer:fica:on  Review  Course   –  Professional  Experience  
  34. 34. 34 Fostering  Demand  Planning,  Forecas3ng,  S&OP  for  30+  Years!     Copyright  ©  2014  by  Ins3tute  of  Business  Forecas3ng.  All  rights  reserved  
  35. 35. 35 Fostering  Demand  Planning,  Forecas3ng,  S&OP  for  30+  Years!     Copyright  ©  2014  by  Ins3tute  of  Business  Forecas3ng.  All  rights  reserved  
  36. 36. 36 Fostering  Demand  Planning,  Forecas3ng,  S&OP  for  30+  Years!     Copyright  ©  2014  by  Ins3tute  of  Business  Forecas3ng.  All  rights  reserved   Cer3fica3on  Period  &  Renewal  Requirements   •  Ini:al  Cer:fica:on  Period  =  4  Years   •  Cer:fica:on  Renewals  Every  4  Years   •  Con:nuing  Educa:on  Points  for  Renewal  without   Reexamina:on   –  CPF:  40  CE  Points  for  Renewal   –  ACPF:  50  CE  Points  for  Renewal   •  Candidate  can  also  choose  to  re-­‐take  exams  to  renew   cer:fica:on  
  37. 37. 37 Fostering  Demand  Planning,  Forecas3ng,  S&OP  for  30+  Years!     Copyright  ©  2014  by  Ins3tute  of  Business  Forecas3ng.  All  rights  reserved   Re-­‐Cer3fica3on   ACTIVITY*   POINTS EARNED   Attend an IBF Conference/ Seminar/ Workshop/ Boot Camp   10 pts   Attend IBF's In-House Training   5 pts   IBF Membership per year   5 pts   IBF Online education per course   3 pts   Attend another forecasting & planning related conference, 1.5 days+ (Supply Chain, Analytics, Planning, etc.)   5 pts   Serve on an IBF Board or Committee   5 pts. per year of service   Publish original research on forecasting & planning   10 pts per publication   Publish an article or blog on forecasting & planning   5 pts. per article published   Speak at a forecasting & planning conference   5 pts per presentation   Speak for a forecasting & planning webinar   5 pts per presentation   Be an IBF Ambassador or Volunteer   5 pts per engagement   Successful completion of an academic course in forecasting & planning   3 pts per credit hour   IBF Chapter Meeting   3 pts   IBF Webinar   2 pts   *One  can  propose  other  ac:vi:es  that  are  “external”  to  the  organiza:on  that  proves  staying  abreast  with     forecas:ng  &  planning  
  38. 38. 38 Fostering  Demand  Planning,  Forecas3ng,  S&OP  for  30+  Years!     Copyright  ©  2014  by  Ins3tute  of  Business  Forecas3ng.  All  rights  reserved   IBF  Awards  -­‐  2013  Winners   Charles  W.  Chase,  Jr.  (pictured  right)   Chief  Industry  Consultant   Demand  Solu3ons   SAS  Ins3tute   Alan  Milliken  (pictured  le`)   Senior  Manager  -­‐  Supply  Chain  Educa3on   BASF  Corpora3on  
  39. 39. 39 Fostering  Demand  Planning,  Forecas3ng,  S&OP  for  30+  Years!     Copyright  ©  2014  by  Ins3tute  of  Business  Forecas3ng.  All  rights  reserved   IBF  Dubai     (pictured  right)   IBF  Sconsdale     (pictured  Le`)   IBF  Event  Photo’s  
  40. 40. 40 Fostering  Demand  Planning,  Forecas3ng,  S&OP  for  30+  Years!     Copyright  ©  2014  by  Ins3tute  of  Business  Forecas3ng.  All  rights  reserved   Visit  the  IBF’s  Website:     Phone:  +1.516.504.7576   Email:   Thank  You  -­‐  Get  Social  with  IBF       LinkedIn:  hnp://         Twiner:    hnp://         Facebook:    hnp://         IBF  Blog:  hnp://demand-­‐         Google+:    hnps://         Anish  Jain   Email:   Linkedin:  
  41. 41. 41 Fostering  Demand  Planning,  Forecas3ng,  S&OP  for  30+  Years!     Copyright  ©  2014  by  Ins3tute  of  Business  Forecas3ng.  All  rights  reserved   IBF  BOARD  OF  ADVISORS  
  42. 42. 42 Fostering  Demand  Planning,  Forecas3ng,  S&OP  for  30+  Years!     Copyright  ©  2014  by  Ins3tute  of  Business  Forecas3ng.  All  rights  reserved   IBF  Board  of  Advisors   John Gallucci Senior Director of Planning Pinnacle Foods Group Curtis Brewer, CPF Head of Consumer Forecasting Bayer Cropscience Mark Covas Senior Director of Demand Planning Georgia-Pacific Alan Milliken, CPF Global Business Process Education Manager BASF Corporation Dr. Larry Lapide Research Affiliate MIT Steve Tribou VP of Account Planning Carter’s/Oshkosh Richard Herrin, CPF Director of Supply Chain Georgia Gulf Corporation/ Axiall   Jay Nearnberg Senior Director Global Demand Planning Novartis
  43. 43. 43 Fostering  Demand  Planning,  Forecas3ng,  S&OP  for  30+  Years!     Copyright  ©  2014  by  Ins3tute  of  Business  Forecas3ng.  All  rights  reserved   IBF  Board  of  Advisors  (Con3nued)   Dr. Barry Keating Professor University of Notre Dame Max Colao Executive Director – New Products Marketing AMGEN Dr. Alex Safavi Director of Forecasting Rockwell Collins Grant Hoffman, CPF Vice President of Supply Chain Motorola Mobility/ Google Randy Wilp Leader of Global Commercial Forecasting Merck & Co., Inc. Dr. Chaman L. Jain Chief Editor, Journal of Business Forecasting (JBF) Professor, St. John’s University (New York)