Schedule Cost Risk Presentation for POVO - Chim Sao / Dua Fields Development

2,108 views

Published on

VAR Cost/Schedule Risk Management to FID
Probabilistic Scenarios to 1st Oil/Gas

Published in: Business, Economy & Finance
0 Comments
3 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total views
2,108
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
10
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
57
Comments
0
Likes
3
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Schedule Cost Risk Presentation for POVO - Chim Sao / Dua Fields Development

  1. 1. Premier Oil (Vietnam) B.V. INDEPENDENT PROJECT RISKS ASSESSMENT REPORT BLOCK 12W DEVELOPMENT PRESENTATION TO BLOCK 12W STAKEHOLDERS SCHEDULE / COST RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH PROJECT EXECUTION PHASE to 1st OIL Analyses and Presentation by Angus Macleod MAPM – Head of Planning & Risk ManagementLEGAL NOTE : the material contained in this presentation is PROPRIETARY and CONFIDENTIAL and remains at all times the INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY of PREMIER OIL (Vietnam) B.V>
  2. 2. Block 12W Field Schematic
  3. 3. Contents of Report1. Introduction (Basis of Report)2. Purpose3. Methodology4. Risk Inputs • Qualitative – Risk Registers / Cost Profiles • Quantitative – 3 point duration estimates / Class 2 Estimate5. Risk Analysis / Outputs • Quantitative – Schedule : Monte-Carlo Simulation in Pertmaster • Quantitative – Cost : Monte-Carlo Simulation in @RISK6. Risk Responses, Monitoring & Control7. What if…………8. Consultant Conclusions9. Schedule / Cost Risk Appendices10. Continuous Value Improvement Process
  4. 4. Introduction (Basis of Report)Defined Project Risk Management an integral part of the Project Management Process
  5. 5. Introduction (Basis of Report)Defined Project Risk Management Process as below
  6. 6. Introduction (Basis of Report)Identified some key components for success of Project Risk Management in Upstream Environment
  7. 7. Introduction (Basis of Report)Identified some key elements to obtain Schedule/Cost risk parameters and implement the results for PSC and Project Management Decision Making
  8. 8. Introduction (Basis of Report)Identified Project Risk Management Process as a Six Stage Cycle
  9. 9. Introduction (Basis of Report)Identified the relationships between 6 stage Project Risk Management Process Total Schedule Effect / Cost (+ / -) of Risk
  10. 10. PurposePurposes of this Report• Provide historical basis for schedule/cost risk identification /mitigation• Map the process of Risk Management used to optimise risk mitigations• Illustrate consolidated risks that pertain to Execution of the Project• Identify risks as threats / opportunities to optimise schedule/cost to 1st Oil• Illustrate the effective use of qualitative and Quantitative methodologies used to optimise risk mitigation• Provide a basis for PSC decision-making processes with regard to • Critical Path(s) to 1st Oil ( based on probabilistic analyses) • Mitigation of Schedule/Cost “sensitivities” • Criticality of Project Sanction to achieve zero deferred production• Initiate a “Continuous Value Improvement” Process
  11. 11. Methodology - General Developed a flowchart to map the Risk Process & Methodologies usedConsolidate Risks and Collect p10,p50,p90 estimates Spreadsheets developed by Project Function (Subsurface, Drilling, Facilities, Project Controls)
  12. 12. Methodology – Qualitative Risk AnalysisUtilised the Project Risk Register with a “Boston Square Matrix ” technique to model Qualitative Risk Probability / Impact and consequences LEGEND
  13. 13. Methodology – Quantative Risk AnalysisUsed Project Risk Register, Boston Square Matrix and p50,p10,p90 range of Block 12 W Key Activity durations to run “Monte Carlo” simulations in Pertmaster (Schedule) and @RISK (Cost) Definition of
  14. 14. Risk Inputs - Qualitative - Risk Register (Extract of pre-mitigated HSE Risks)Consolidated Risk Registers from HSE, Subsea, Drilling, Facilities (FPSO, WHRP, Pipelines),
  15. 15. Risk Inputs - Qualitative - Risk Register (Extract post-mitigated Schedule Risks)Cross-related Qualitative Risk Register and decided which SCHEDULE RISKS should be modeled on a Quantative Basis in PERTMASTER (Schedule Risks) and / or @RISK (Cost Risks) Yes goes into Pertmaster Model Yes goes into @RISK Model
  16. 16. Risk Inputs - Qualitative - Risk Register (Extract post-mitigated Schedule Risks)Cross-related Qualitative Risk Register and decided which SCHEDULE RISKS should be modeled on a Quantative Basis in PERTMASTER (Schedule Risks) and/or @RISK (Cost Risks) Yes goes into Yes Pertmaster goes Model into @RISK Model not schedule modelled in Pertmaste r not cost modelled in @RISK
  17. 17. Risk Inputs - Qualitative - Risk Register (Extract post-mitigated Schedule Risks)Cross-related Qualitative Risk Register and decided which SCHEDULE RISKS should be modeled on a Quantative Basis in PERTMASTER (Schedule Risks) and / or @RISK (Cost Risks) Yes goes into @RISK not Model schedule modelled in Pertmaster Yes goes into @RISK Model
  18. 18. Risk Inputs - Qualitative - Risk Register (Extract post-mitigated Technical Risks)Cross-related Qualitative Risk Register and decided which TECHNICAL (Facilities) RISKS should be modeled on a Quantative Basis in PERTMASTER (Schedule Risks) and / or @RISK (Cost Risks)
  19. 19. Risk Inputs - Qualitative - Risk Register (Extract post-mitigated Technical Risks)Cross-related Qualitative Risk Register and decided which TECHNICAL (Facilities) RISKS should be modeled on a Quantative Basis in PERTMASTER (Schedule Risks) and / or @RISK (Cost Risks) Yes goes into @RISK Model Yes goes into @RISK Model
  20. 20. Risk Inputs - Qualitative - Risk Register (Extract post-mitigated Technical Risks)Cross-related Qualitative Risk Register and decided which TECHNICAL DRILLING RISKS should be modeled on a Quantative Basis in PERTMASTER (Schedule Risks) and / or @RISK (Cost Risks) not schedule modelled in Pertmaster not cost not modelled schedule in @RISK modelled in Pertmaster Yes goes into Yes goes @RISK into Model Pertmaster Model Yes goes into @RISK Model
  21. 21. Risk Inputs - Qualitative - Risk Register (Extract post-mitigated Technical Risks)Cross-related Qualitative Risk Register and decided which DRILLING WELL DESIGN RISKS should be modeled on a Quantative Basis in PERTMASTER (Schedule Risks) and / or @RISK (Cost Risks) Yes goes into Pertmaster Model Yes goes into @RISK Model Yes goes into Pertmaster Model Yes goes into @RISK Model
  22. 22. Risk Inputs - Qualitative - Risk Register (Extract post-mitigated Drilling Risks)Cross-related Qualitative Risk Register and decided which DEVELOPMENT DRILLING RISKS should be modeled on a Quantative Basis in PERTMASTER (Schedule Risks) and / or @RISK (Cost Risks) Yes goes into @RISK Model Yes goes into Pertmaster Model not schedule modelled in Pertmaster not cost modelled in @RISK
  23. 23. Risk Inputs - Qualitative - Risk Register (Extract post-mitigated Drilling Risks)Cross-related Qualitative Risk Register and decided which DEVELOPMENT DRILLING RISKS should be modeled on a Quantative Basis in PERTMASTER (Schedule Risks) and / or @RISK (Cost Risks) Yes goes into @RISK Model Yes goes into Pertmaster Model not schedule modelled in Pertmaster not cost modelled in @RISK
  24. 24. Risk Inputs - Qualitative - Risk Register ( post-mitigated Sub-Surface Risks)Cross-related Qualitative Risk Register and decided which GENERAL SUB-SURFACE RISKS should be modeled on a Quantative Basis in PERTMASTER (Schedule Risks) and / or @RISK (Cost Risks)
  25. 25. Risk Inputs - Qualitative - Risk Register ( post-mitigated Sub-Surface Risks)Cross-related Qualitative Risk Register and decided which CHIM SAO SUB-SURFACE RISKS should be modeled on a Quantative Basis in PERTMASTER (Schedule Risks) and / or @RISK (Cost Risks)
  26. 26. Risk Inputs - Qualitative - Risk Register (post-mitigated Sub-Surface Risks)cross-related Qualitative Risk Register and decided which CHIM SAO SUB-SURFACE RISKS should be modeled on a Quantative Basis in PERTMASTER (Schedule Risks) and / or @RISK (Cost Risks)
  27. 27. Risk Inputs - Qualitative - Risk Register (post-mitigated Sub-Surface Risks)cross-related Qualitative Risk Register and decided which DUA SUB-SURFACE RISKS should be modeled on a Quantative Basis in PERTMASTER (Schedule Risks) and / or @RISK (Cost Risks)
  28. 28. Risk Inputs - Qualitative - Risk Register (post-mitigated Commercial Risks)cross-related Qualitative Risk Register and decided which COMMERCIAL & OTHER RISKS should be modeled on a Quantative Basis in PERTMASTER (Schedule Risks) and / or @RISK (Cost Risks) TBA
  29. 29. Risk Outputs- Quantative – Deterministic (P50) Schedule – Page 1 of 3RAN a DETERMINISTIC SCHEDULE in Primavera P6 and tested it in Pertmaster using equal distribution of P50 durations and confirmed a DETERMINISTIC (unrisked) 1st OIL DATE OF 25th May 2010
  30. 30. Risk Outputs- Quantative – Deterministic (P50) Schedule Page 2 of 3(cont’d) DETERMINISTIC SCHEDULE in Primavera P6 and tested it in Pertmaster using equal distribution of P50 durations and confirmed a DETERMINISTIC (unrisked) 1st OIL DATE OF 25th May 2010
  31. 31. Risk Outputs- Quantative – Deterministic (P50) Schedule Page 3 0f 3)(cont’d) DETERMINISTIC SCHEDULE in Primavera P6 and tested it in Pertmaster using equal distribution of P50 durations and confirmed a DETERMINISTIC (unrisked) 1st OIL DATE OF 25th May 2010
  32. 32. Risk Outputs- Quantative – Deterministic (P50) ScheduleDETERMINISTIC SCHEDULE in Primavera P6 RAN IN PERTMASTER using equal distribution of P50 durations and confirmed a DETERMINISTIC (unrisked) 1st OIL DATE OF 25th May 2010
  33. 33. Quantative – Probabilistic Schedule - Critical Path Report – Page 1 of 5RAN a PROBABLISTIC SCHEDULE with Monte-Carlo Simulations in PERTMASTER using original Deterministic Critical Path Schedule + collected 3 point estimates + Post-Mitigated Qualative Risk Registers Project Sanction July 08
  34. 34. Quantative – Probabilistic Schedule - Critical Path Report – Page 2 of 5RAN a PROBABLISTIC SCHEDULE with Monte-Carlo Simulations in PERTMASTER using original Deterministic Critical Path Schedule + collected 3 point estimates + Post-Mitigated Qualative Risk Registers
  35. 35. Quantative – Probabilistic Schedule - Critical Path Report – Page 3 of 5RAN PROBABLISTIC SCHEDULE with Monte-Carlo Simulations in PERTMASTER using original Deterministic Critical Path Schedule + collected 3 point estimates + Post-Mitigated Qualative Risk Registers
  36. 36. Quantative – Probabilistic Schedule - Critical Path Report – Page 4 of 5RAN PROBABLISTIC SCHEDULE with Monte-Carlo Simulations in PERTMASTER using original Deterministic Critical Path Schedule + collected 3 point estimates + Post-Mitigated Qualative Risk Registers
  37. 37. Quantative – Probabilistic Schedule - Critical Path Report – Page 5 of 5RAN PROBABLISTIC SCHEDULE with Monte-Carlo Simulations in PERTMASTER using original Deterministic Critical Path Schedule + collected 3 point estimates + Post-Mitigated Qualative Risk Registers
  38. 38. Risk Outputs – Quantative – “Base Case” Probabilistic Schedule Finish DatesExtrapolated p10, p50, p90 Probabilistic Finish Dates from PROBABLISTIC SCHEDULE ANALYSIS based on Monte-Carlo simulation of 3 point duration estimates – and produced 1st Pass range of 1st Oil dates 1st Pass “Base Case” Probabilistic Dates to 1st Oil P90 1st Oil Date = 26th Aug 2010 P50 1st Oil Date = 7th Jul 2010 P10 1st Oil Date = 25th May 2010
  39. 39. Risk Outputs- Quantative–Tornado Graph – Schedule Sensitivity IndexRAN Monte-Carlo Simulations in PERTMASTER and produced TORNADO GRAPHS depicting SCHEDULE SENSITIVITY INDEX – (Top Ten Schedule Sensitivities)
  40. 40. What-if….Deterministic Schedule “Best” Scenario if Sanction DelayTurner & Townsend–ran DETERMINISTIC SCHEDULE SCENARIOS in Primavera P6 to model the BEST CASE schedule scenarios under theoretical “what-if” conditions to identify threats to 1st OIL DATE OF 25th May 2010 If Project Sanction Delayed by 2 Months then deterministic “best case” then 1st Oil delayed by 4 months (deferred production)
  41. 41. What-if….Probabilistic Schedule P50 Scenario if Sanction Delay (Page 1 of 4)RAN PROBABLISTIC SCHEDULE SCENARIO in PERTMASTER to model the P50 CASE schedule if Project Sanction delayed 2 months and P50 net result 1st OIL DATE slips to Dec 2010 Jacket & Topsides cannot install until Q2 2010
  42. 42. What-if….Probabilistic Schedule P50 Scenario if Sanction Delay (Page 2 of 4)RAN PROBABLISTIC SCHEDULE SCENARIO in PERTMASTER to model the P50 CASE schedule if Project Sanction delayed 2 months and P50 net result 1st OIL DATE slips to Dec 2010 Template drilling $$ trade-off to maintain schedule
  43. 43. What-if….Probabilistic Schedule P50 Scenario if Sanction Delay (Page 3 of 4)RAN PROBABLISTIC SCHEDULE SCENARIO in PERTMASTER to model the P50 CASE schedule if Project Sanction delayed 2 months and P50 net result 1st OIL DATE slips to Dec 2010 FPSO Schedule slips resulting from later major contract award
  44. 44. What-if….Probabilistic Schedule P50 Scenario if Sanction Delay (Page 4 of 4)RAN PROBABLISTIC SCHEDULE SCENARIO in PERTMASTER to model the P50 CASE schedule if Project Sanction delayed 2 months and P50 net result 1st OIL DATE slips to Dec 2010 All Jacket & Topsides heavy lifts slip to post-monsoon 2010 Most Likely “Sanction Delay Case” 1st Oil Date slips 5 months to 24th Oct 10
  45. 45. Risk Outputs – Quantative – “Sanction Delay Case” Probabilistic Schedule Finish DatesExtrapolated p10, p50, p90 Probabilistic Finish Dates from PROBABLISTIC SCHEDULE ANALYSIS based on Monte-Carlo simulation of 3 point duration estimates – and produced new range of 1st Oil dates“Sanction Delay Quantative – Probabilistic Schedule Finish Dates Risk Outputs – Case “ Probabilistic Dates to 1st Oil P90 1st Oil Date = 6th Dec 2010 P50 1st Oil Date = 4th Nov 2010 P10 1st Oil Date = 5th Oct 2010
  46. 46. Cost Risk Inputs Quantative – Class 2 EstimateUsed the following Class 2 Estimate to run Cost Probability Simulations in @RISK
  47. 47. Risk Outputs :Quantative – Cost : Monte-Carlo Simulation in @RISKCBS -Extrapolated based on Monte-Carlo simulation of Class 2 Cost Estimate a range of p10, p50, p90 Probabilistic Cost Profiles (using values probabilistic around the base case costs)
  48. 48. Risk Outputs :Quantative – Cost : Monte-Carlo Simulation in @RISKCBS -extrapolated based on Monte-Carlo simulation of Class 2 Cost Estimate a range of p10, p50, p90 Probabilistic CostProfiles (using values probabilistic around the base case costs)
  49. 49. Risk Outputs :Quantative – Cost : Monte-Carlo Simulation in @RISKCBS-extrapolated based on Monte-Carlo simulation of Class 2 Cost Estimate a range of p10, p50, p90 Probabilistic Cost Profiles (using values probabilistic around the base case costs)
  50. 50. Risk Outputs :Quantative – Cost : Monte-Carlo Simulation in @RISKCBS –extrapolated based on Monte-Carlo simulation of Class 2 Cost Estimate a range of p10, p50, p90 Probabilistic Cost Profiles (using values probabilistic around the base case costs)
  51. 51. Risk Outputs :Quantative – Cost : Monte-Carlo Simulation in @RISKCBS –extrapolated based on Monte-Carlo simulation of Class 2 Cost Estimate a range of p10, p50, p90 Probabilistic Cost Profiles (using values probabilistic around the base case costs)
  52. 52. Risk Outputs :Quantative – Cost : Monte-Carlo Simulation in @RISKCBS –extrapolated based on Monte-Carlo simulation of Class 2 Cost Estimate a range of p10, p50, p90 Probabilistic CostProfiles (using values probabilistic around the base case costs)
  53. 53. Risk Outputs :Quantative – Cost : Monte-Carlo Simulation in @RISKCBS - extrapolated based on Monte-Carlo simulation of Class 2 Cost Estimate a range of p10, p50, p90 Probabilistic Cost Profiles (using values probabilistic around the base case costs)
  54. 54. Risk Outputs :Quantative – Cost : Monte-Carlo Simulation in @RISKCBS -extrapolated based on Monte-Carlo simulation of Class 2 Cost Estimate a range of Probabilistic Cost Profiles (using values probabilistic around the base case costs)
  55. 55. Risk Outputs :Quantative – Cost : Monte-Carlo Simulation in @RISKCALCULATED based on Monte-Carlo simulation of Class 2 Cost Estimate a range of Probabilistic Cost Profiles (using values probabilistic around the base case costs)
  56. 56. Risk Outputs :Quantative – Cost Sensitivity in @RISKBased on Spearmans Rank Correlation simulation of cost centre sensitivity (relative Coefficient values) of Class 2 “Total Project Value”
  57. 57. Risk Outputs :Quantative – Cost : Simulation in @RISKCalculated Cumulative Ascending Cost Distribution Curve based on values inherent in Class 2 “Total Project Value” Cost Estimate
  58. 58. Template Drilling Costs (if EPCI miss 2009-2010 weather window)
  59. 59. CONCLUSIONSConclusions of this Report • The original Deterministic Schedule is “aggressive but achievable” provided no slippage occurs in Approvals Process and Project Sanction is not delayed beyond July 2008 • EPCI LL Procurement manageable with a schedule benefit and slight cost risk ahead of Project Sanction • Much effort has gone into ensuring that “team effort” at 2 x risk workshops contributed to refinement both of quality, content and appropriate detail of Risk Registers • A “face-to-face” knowledge management process was adopted to refine accuracy of schedule 3 point activity duration estimates – this proved a valuable exercise and encouraged risk “ownership” • Using a structured Risk Assessment Process and latest risk analysis methodologies applied to state of the art Risk Analysis software the consultant was able to : • Link Qualitative Risk Registers to Level 2 Schedule activities • Run probabilistic algorithms on Quantitative 3 point duration estimates and Class 2 Estimate • Risk Analysis / Outputs • Schedule : Monte-Carlo Simulation in PERTMASTER ( “Base Case” assumes Sanction Jul 08”) • P10 = 25th May 2010 (originally the P50 Deterministic Case) • P50 = 7th July 2010 • P90 = 26th August 2010 • Schedule : Monte-Carlo Simulation PERTMASTER (“Sanction Delay Case” assumes Sep 08”) • P10 = 5th Oct 2010 • P50 = 4th Nov 2010 • P90 = 6th Dec 2010
  60. 60. Continuous Value Improvement ProcessTO BE DEVELOPED AFTER PROJECT SANCTION

×