Dr. Krautstengl YMGE 2012 Presentation


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In November, Anglo-American University President Dr. Alan Krautstengl presented to the Yale Model Government 2012 session. You can view the slides here.

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Dr. Krautstengl YMGE 2012 Presentation

  1. 1. Europe in crisis:Are we really looking at the wholeforest or just at a small group of trees? Alan Krautstengl, Ph.D. Associate Professor of Applied Mathematics President, Anglo-American University
  2. 2. This presentation is dedicated to Miguel Alcubierre for giving us hope. Yale Model Government Europe 2012, November 22
  3. 3. Laws of Thermodynamics1. First Law – Energy Preservation Law2. Second Law – Total entropy (measurement of randomness, disorder or chaos) never decreases; it remains the same for reversible processes and increases for irreversible processes Yale Model Government Europe 2012, November 22
  4. 4. Science and Society• Biology inspired First Law• Sphere as optimization result of minimal surface with given volume• Living organisms’ behavior: instinct vs. intelligence• How do fundamental principles of mathematics and physics and their understanding govern the development of human society? Yale Model Government Europe 2012, November 22
  5. 5. First Law Reflected• You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity• What one person receives without working for another person must work for without receiving• The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else• You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it• When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them, and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for, that is the beginning of the end of any nation [5] Yale Model Government Europe 2012, November 22
  6. 6. Second Law Reflected ? Yale Model Government Europe 2012, November 22
  7. 7. Europe“If you were an alien from Mars visiting Earth in the year 1500 and viewed all the great civilizations, which would you think would eventually dominate the world? The answer would be easy: any civilization but the European one.” [2]• China: great scientific base, inventions include paper, gunpowder, compass; unified government, mainland at peace• Great Ottoman Empire: algebra, optics, astronomy and other science flourish, Istanbul is the scientific center of the world; its great army face no credible opposition• Europe: religious fundamentalism, with trials, Inquisition, local wars Yale Model Government Europe 2012, November 22
  8. 8. What proved the Martian wrong? TECHNOLOGY. Yale Model Government Europe 2012, November 22
  9. 9. The Great Quadruplet Four fundamental forces govern our world: gravity, electromagnetism, weak and strong nuclear forces.Each time one of them was understood the technology happened and history has changed. Europe always played a dominant role in this process. Yale Model Government Europe 2012, November 22
  10. 10. Mastering of the Forces• Understanding gravity and development of the Newtonian mechanics paved the road for industrial revolution.• Understanding electromagnetism by Faraday, Maxwell, Edison and others paved the road to electrification of the entire planet. Credit cards, computers, lights in the night, elevators, refrigerators, air travel etc. - all of this is a reality of our world today.• Understanding the nuclear forces may change everything around us even more profoundly. Nuclear plants, CAT scans, MRI, radiation therapy and natural plutonium 238 decay driven Curiosity vehicle on Mars are already a reality. After mastering the nuclear fusion the world will be a different place again. Yale Model Government Europe 2012, November 22
  11. 11. Evolution of the Civilization• Past, Present and Future• Classification of the Types of Civilizations• Points of view: energy consumption, astronomical prospective, information prospective, entropy prospective• The Critical Transition• How are we doing? Yale Model Government Europe 2012, November 22
  12. 12. Type I Civilization• Planetary• Consuming 1017 watts of power• Uses the energy of the entire planet, freely travels in the solar system• A.C. Clarke’s Space Odyssey (safe Russian-American conflict) Yale Model Government Europe 2012, November 22
  13. 13. Type II Civilization• Stellar• Consuming 1027 watts of power• Uses the energy of the entire solar system, freely travels in the galaxy• United Federation of Planets from Star Trek (safe warp engine that is within reach of type III civilization if understood as Alcubierre drive) Note: Since 1994 the warp drive is no longer science fiction but „only“ technological fiction. Bending the space enables to effectively achieve superluminal speed without breaking the laws of the relativity theory. Further, the crew of the space ship would be free of the effects of inertia. Yale Model Government Europe 2012, November 22
  14. 14. Michio Kaku- Faster than light speed ispossible - from YouTube by Offliberty Yale Model Government Europe 2012, November 22
  15. 15. Type III Civilization• Galactic• Consuming 1037 watts of power• Uses the energy of the entire galaxy, freely travels in the universe• Empire from Star Wars saga Yale Model Government Europe 2012, November 22
  16. 16. General Notes• Each type of civilization consumes 10 billion times more energy than the previous one• Given the average growth of collective planetary GDP of 1 or 2 % respectively yields the transition period between the subsequent types to be 2,500 or 1,200 years respectively• We are currently type 0 civilization with mathematical estimation of reaching type I by the end of 22nd century, perhaps even earlier• Civilizations of type I and higher are at peace with themselves• Transition from type 0 to type I is critical Yale Model Government Europe 2012, November 22
  17. 17. Notes on Classifications• Energy type classification mentioned above was introduced by Kardashev in 1960• If finer scale is applied we currently stand at 0.7• If information processing prospective is applied, then A to Z classification is used (Carl Sagan) - Type A civilization processes one million pieces of information (civilization with only spoken language but not written one) - compiling all the information surviving from ancient Greece with written language and literature yields type C civilization - our current civilization is of type H• How about entropy? Yale Model Government Europe 2012, November 22
  18. 18. Second Law Reflected I.• As we have already seen, the First law of Thermodynamics is easy to interpret: “you cannot get something for nothing”• Second law of Thermodynamics tells us that all things must pass, objects must rot, decay, rust, age, or fall apart [2]• “… if civilizations of the future blindly produce energy as they rise (…) they will create so much waste heat that their home planet will become uninhabitable. Entropy, in the form of waste heat, chaos, and pollution, will essentially destroy their civilization.” [2] Yale Model Government Europe 2012, November 22
  19. 19. Second Law Reflected II.• Total increase of entropy is inevitable: warming, pollution, waste is not a mere topic of political talks, it is a direct consequence of the Second Law of Thermodynamics• Yet, we are not necessarily doomed: it is scientifically possible to locally decrease the entropy at cost of increasing it somewhere else. Energy needs increase exponentially, but new technologies may be used to eliminate or significantly cut down the waste and inefficiencies. If you travel by car from Yale to Princeton approximately 97% of the gas is used to overcome the friction between the tires of your car and the road. New technologies may change that. Yale Model Government Europe 2012, November 22
  20. 20. Can Europe Repeat its Historical Success Again?• International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER), Cadarache, southern France - using “magnetic bottle” to create fusion• Conseil Européen pour la Recherche Nucléaire (CERN), European Organization for Nuclear Research, French – Swiss border - worlds largest particle physics laboratory; www developed from CERN Enquire project in 1990 Note: it is conceivable that it will be within means of type III civilization to create physics laboratory of the size several times exceeding the size of our solar system Yale Model Government Europe 2012, November 22
  21. 21. Responsibility• Our current civilization already exhibits many features of type I civilization (internet, satellites, global financial and business network, English emerging as a universal language, global culture and entertainment, intercontinental travel and tourism, etc.)• Many dangers of completing the transition still remain: terrorism, dictatorships, forces of fundamentalism, racism, intolerance, ignorance to the environment or - more precisely put - entropy wastefulness• Our generation and generations of our children and grandchildren and possibly also their children have the gravest responsibility in the whole history of mankind in determining whether or not we make it to the civilization of type I• What role will Europe play in that process remains to be seen Yale Model Government Europe 2012, November 22
  22. 22. Final notesTwo greatest and most ancient dreams of mankind• Immortality• Reaching for the stars – Will it be possible in the future? – Have we been paid a visit from the stars? (four possible answers) Yale Model Government Europe 2012, November 22
  23. 23. References, Acknowledgements[1] Richard Feynman, lectures in physics, Caltech 1961,1962[2] Michio Kaku, Physics of the Future, Doubleday 2011[3] Michio Kaku, Physics of the Impossible, Doubleday 2008[4] Roger Penrose, The Road to Reality, A Complete Guide to the Laws of the Universe, Vintage Books 2007[5] Posel, November – December 2012, Czech Catholic Union bi-monthly magazine[*] Videos from MGM (A Space Odyssey), Paramount (Star Trek: Insurrection), Lucasfilm (Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith), Youtube (Faster than light speed is possible)• Special thanks to Milada Polišenská for sharing her notes on EU with me• Special thanks to Bibiána Hakošová for making these slides look descent• Special thanks to Douglas Shields Dix and Christopher Montoni for their help with the videos Yale Model Government Europe 2012, November 22
  24. 24. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION Yale Model Government Europe 2012, November 22