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OODA.MODELS.CODE.VELOCITY - Velocity 2015

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Like most things that get pop-ified, the details are glossed over and essential elements of the original work are lost. Ideas are worthless without execution; relying on the pop version of an idea will handicap any attempt at its execution. The talk is partly an exposition, distillation, and application of Boyd’s original ideas (particularly as described in Boyd: The Fighter Pilot Who Changed the Art of War) – and partly an exhortation to get as close as possible to original sources, because the lessons there are rich.

Key ideas:
* OODA recasts the cognition<—>action cycle central to any organism’s effort to stay alive, in a particular context
* Moving faster through the cycle is the shallowest reading of the idea
* All parts of the loop are not made equal
* OODA is tied to the risks and benefits of dealing with models
* As are black swans
* And antifragility
* The best action is worth more than the first action
* The optimal time is better than the fastest time

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OODA.MODELS.CODE.VELOCITY - Velocity 2015

  1. 1. OODA.MODELS.CODE.VELOCITY Aneel Lakhani
  2. 2. NOT QUALIFIEDTO GIVETHISTALK Marketing Analyst Product Infra Arch Net Eng Sys Admin NOC Op Tech Support
  3. 3. HE IS USAF Colonel & Military Strategist John Richard Boyd
  4. 4. OODA OBSERVE ORIENT DECIDE ACT
  5. 5. ECOLOGICAL PSYCHOLOGY AFFORDANCES Empirical Psychologist James J. Gibson
  6. 6. A KNOB AFFORDSTWISTING,AND PERHAPS PUSHING,WHILE A CORD AFFORDS PULLING. AN AFFORDANCE [IS]THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ACTION,AND IS NOT A PROPERTY OF EITHER AN ORGANISM OR ITS ENVIRONMENT ALONE.
  7. 7. COGNITION GRASPS AFFORDANCES ACTION UNLOCKS AFFORDANCES
  8. 8. OODA == COGNITION-ACTION
  9. 9. OODA : COGNITION-ACTION :: __ :AFFORDANCE
  10. 10. HOW DO WE GO FROM OBSERVATION TO ORIENTATION?
  11. 11. HOW DO WE GO FROM ORIENTATION TO DECISION?
  12. 12. WE BUILD MODELS
  13. 13. WE PUT OBSERVATIONS INTO MODELS
  14. 14. WE [TENDTO] IGNORE OBSERVATIONS THAT DON’T FIT OUR MODELS
  15. 15. WE ORIENT WITH ANDTO MODELS
  16. 16. WE MAKE DECISIONS [ONLY] WITHIN THE FRAMEWORKS OF OUR MODELS
  17. 17. WE MODEL ALLTHETHINGS
  18. 18. FASTER!!! [CARGO CULTVERSION]
  19. 19. OPERATE INSIDETHE [ADVERSARY’S] TIME SCALE
  20. 20. 1 Adversary 1: OODA 2 Adversary 1: OODA 3 Adversary 1: OODAOODAOODA 4 Adversary 1: OODA^X Adversary 2: OOD_ Adversary 2: OO__ Adversary 2: OOD_OO_O_ Adversary 2: OOD_O_D_A_O
  21. 21. MOVING FORWARD INTIME
  22. 22. PARTS OFTHE LOOP ARE NOT EQUAL
  23. 23. OBSERVE & ACT VS ORIENT & DECIDE
  24. 24. FIRST-ORIENTER DISADVANTAGE Law & Finance Professor Frank Portnoy
  25. 25. DELAYING DECIDE-ACT OFTEN MEANS COMING OUT AHEAD
  26. 26. MAPPING WONDER, PEACE,WAR BUSINESS CYCLES Researcher of Strategy & Mapmaker Simon Wardley
  27. 27. MULTIPLE PRACTICES, CULTURES,AND STAGES OF EVOLUTION COEXIST
  28. 28. CAUSING AN ADVERSARY’S MODELTO BE “INVALID” ISTHE PRIMARY MEANS OF “WINNING”
  29. 29. TAKING OUR MODELSTOO SERIOUSLY IS A RISK WAITINGTO BE EXPLOITED (OR BLOWN UP)
  30. 30. BLACK SWANS ANTIFRAGILITY Professor of Risk Engineering N. N.Taleb
  31. 31. BLACK SWANS LIE OUTSIDE OUR MODELS
  32. 32. [IMMOVABLE] MODELS CREATE FRAGILITY
  33. 33. SCALES OF ABSTRACTION PROMISETHEORY Architect of CFEngine Mark Burgess
  34. 34. EVERY MODEL HAS A HALF LIFE
  35. 35. SO WHAT?
  36. 36. THERE’S AN INHERENT ADVANTAGE WHEN EVERYTHING IS CODE
  37. 37. OBSERVATION CAN BE INSTRUMENTED SCALED BEYOND HUMAN CAPACITY
  38. 38. ACTION CAN BE AUTOMATED SCALED BEYOND HUMAN CAPACITY
  39. 39. ORIENTATION AND DECISION CAN BE SHORT-CIRCUITED [FOR KNOWN MODELS] SCALED BEYOND HUMAN CAPACITY
  40. 40. TIME CAN BE REALLOCATEDTO ORIENTING AND DECIDING IN NOVEL CONTEXTS SCALING TO HUMAN CAPACITY
  41. 41. CAUTION:ALL MODELS ARE WRONG, SOME ARE USEFUL [IN SOME CONTEXT]
  42. 42. CAUTION: OUR MODELS ARE BIASED BY OUR BIASES
  43. 43. CAUTION: MODELS ARE NOT SCALE-INVARIANT Scales: number, size, resolution, frequency, dimensionality, time, rate of change
  44. 44. CAUTION: SAFE MODELS BECOME RISKY AT DIFFERENT SCALES / CONTEXTS
  45. 45. KNOW THE CONTEXT
  46. 46. SEEK MODEL INVALIDATION
  47. 47. ORIENTATION AND DECISION Through streaming analytics, exploring metrics in real time, as they’re created, building meaningful (composite) signals, creating leverage for Orient and Decide. Invalidating models daily.
  48. 48. READ PRIMARY SOURCES (OR FEWEST DEGREES FROM)
  49. 49. READING blog.gardeviance.org - kitchensoap.com
  50. 50. THANKS Aneel @aneel - aneel@signalfx.com
  51. 51. ADVANCED MONITORING PLATFORM FOR MODERN APPLICATIONS https://signalfx.com
  52. 52. IMAGE CREDITS • J.J. Gibson: Cornell University Library • Frank Partnoy: Startup Grind • N.N.Taleb: NYTimes • Mark Burgess: markburgess.org • Book cover images from Amazon • Coffee: me • Me: not me

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