Jd pop proj in bdp1

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Jd pop proj in bdp1

  1. 1. <ul><li>Bournemouth, Dorset and Poole: Calculating Local Population Projections in Partnership </li></ul><ul><li>By </li></ul><ul><li>Jayne Dale </li></ul><ul><li>Senior Research Officer </li></ul><ul><li>Bournemouth Borough Council </li></ul>
  2. 2. Why - The history <ul><li>Bournemouth, Dorset and Poole is a strategic planning area and this geography has been subsequently used for the MAA. </li></ul>
  3. 3. What was required? <ul><li>To support the strategic planning function evidence of the housing requirement was needed. </li></ul><ul><li>To undertake this work we agreed jointly to purchase PopGroup, HouseGroup and LabGroup. </li></ul><ul><li>Each authority has copies of the software. </li></ul>
  4. 4. How has this worked? <ul><li>Over a number of years we have developed a consistent methodology for producing the projections. </li></ul><ul><li>We use a combination of national datasets and local data to produce the projections. </li></ul><ul><li>We produce a number of runs with various scenarios. These usually include trend-based, policy-based and natural change projections. </li></ul>
  5. 5. Who uses the results? <ul><li>The projections are used across various departments in the three authorities, however the main purpose for which they are run is for strategic planning. </li></ul><ul><li>Therefore the policy-based projections are housing-led constrained to past housing completion figures and future allocations. </li></ul>
  6. 6. What else? <ul><li>We have also produced short-term small area projections. A methodology was agreed although in this case each authority produced their own set of projections. The purpose was to support the Building Schools for the Future work. </li></ul>
  7. 7. Benefits of joint working <ul><li>Shared staff resources across three authorities. </li></ul><ul><li>Consistency </li></ul><ul><li>Cost-saving </li></ul><ul><li>Time saving </li></ul><ul><li>Three authorities better than one! </li></ul>
  8. 8. Difficulties in joint working <ul><li>Difficulties in getting together to arrange work programme. </li></ul><ul><li>Getting agreement on constraints can be difficult if the authorities have different priorities. </li></ul><ul><li>Differing working priorities. </li></ul><ul><li>General issues with staff resources. </li></ul><ul><li>Geography. </li></ul>
  9. 9. The Future <ul><li>The LEP is currently looking like it will cover Bournemouth, Dorset and Poole. Therefore the joint work is likely to continue. </li></ul><ul><li>We have invested in PopGroup which is introducing new software to replace HouseGroup and LabGroup which we will need to purchase and learn to use. </li></ul><ul><li>October spending announcements. </li></ul>

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