Thai politics - It's a Street Fight

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This presentation was done in late January 2014, however it is still relevant though the political situation in Thailand still remains unstable.The presentation is a short historical analysis of what have actually happened in Thai politics since the 1980's. It will bring some insights to the political turmoil that started in late 2013 and has not yet (29 April 2014) been solved.

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  • C:\Users\LifeForce_SK\Dropbox\Asia's No.1 Research\asean\Thai Election statistics.xlsx
  • C:\Users\LifeForce_SK\Dropbox\Asia's No.1 Research\asean\Thai Election statistics.xlsx
  • C:\Users\LifeForce_SK\Dropbox\Asia's No.1 Research\asean\Thai Election statistics.xlsx
  • Thai politics - It's a Street Fight

    1. 1. 130 January 2014 Thai politics: It’s a street fight The Democrat Party has been fighting against Thaksin’s consolidation of the rural vote The Democrats and Bangkok voters had more control when opposition parties were small and fractured Thaksin consolidated rural parties into a voting bloc that has dominated Parliament until now ?
    2. 2. 30 January 2014 2  We chart the past 13 general elections in Thailand to show the shifts in power between the major parties  In the seven elections from 1983 to 1996, pre-Thaksin, about 11 parties other than the Democrat Party contested  This splintering of rural MPs allowed the Democrats and Bangkok voters the ability to participate  In 2001, Thaksin’s new Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love Thais) Party, arrived on the scene and consolidated the votes that had been going to the splintered parties The Democrat Party has been fighting against Thaksin’s consolidation of the rural vote Sources: LifeFORCE, Office of the Election Commission of Thailand
    3. 3. 30 January 2014 3  In the pre-Thaksin era House of Representatives within the Thai Parliament, power shifted between the smaller parties  This meant that the Democrat Party and Bangkok voters were able to gain substantial representation  As Thaksin consolidated the fractured parties, he was able to dominate Parliament  But he was a victim of his own success and Thailand’s winner-take-all mentality in politics  Unfortunately, such domination to the exclusion of the Democrat Party left it with no hope of influence inside the system The Democrats and Bangkok voters had more control when opposition parties were small and fractured Sources: LifeFORCE, Office of the Election Commission of Thailand
    4. 4. 30 January 2014 4  Between the post -2006- coup attacks on Thaksin’s legitimacy and his party’s poor policy choices (e.g. the rice-pledging scheme), his party (now called Pheu Thai) is vulnerable  The Democrat Party has maintained control of more than 30% of seats in the House, which shows that its support base is strong and stable  In addition, the power of smaller parties (e.g. Bhumjaithai and Chart Thai Pattana) is starting to rise and hence could potentially swing to either side  At the polls, the Democrat Party, with a good plan, could attack its vulnerable opponent Thaksin consolidated rural parties into a voting bloc that has dominated Parliament until now Sources: LifeFORCE, Office of the Election Commission of Thailand
    5. 5. 530 January 2014 Share this with your friends www.andrewstotz.com Follow me on:

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