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VisionMobile Ecosystems Workshop at DIGITAL WINNERS
November 2013
Copyright VisionMobile 2013
Copyright VisionMobile 2012
VisionMobile | the ecosystem analysts
Developer Economics

Mobile Business Models

Trends watch

The biggest, most global developer
research platform

Thought-leading research for managing
disruption and reinventing your
business

Tracking under-the-radar industry
trends

Tier-1 clients

Digital ecosystem experts

Media coverage

trusted by the top brand names in
mobile

Thought leaders in the economics of
ecosystems and telecoms in the
software era

Global media reach

Copyright VisionMobile 2013
apps, devices

shifting basis of competition
asymmetric business models
cross-industry competitive arenas

3

Apps are just the tip of the iceberg
Copyright VisionMobile 2013
2000s: Mobile and computing are separate islands
Telecom island
private, vertically integrated, intelligent network

Computing island
public, horizontally integrated, dumb network

Dumb & closed

Intelligent & open
Intelligence = software

4

Copyright VisionMobile 2013
Today: Mobile computing brought the two together
Convergence led to clash of business models and emergence of new leaders

Intelligent & open
Intelligence = software

5

Copyright VisionMobile 2013
Fundamental shift in how value is created
value is created on top of digital ecosystems in all aspects of user needs

mobile telephony

mobile computing

telco are the gatekeepers of the communication needs
(less than 5% of spending)

ecosystems are the gatekeepers for the rest 95% of needs

Communications
Health
3%

Communications
3%

Alcoholic beverages,
tobacco and narcotics
3%

3%

Housing, water,
electricity, gas and
other fuels
23%

Clothing and footwear
6%

household
spending
EU27

Furnishings,
household equipment
maintenance
6%

Education
3%

household
spending
EU27

Transport
13%

Restaurants and hotels
8%

Recreation and culture
9%
Miscellaneous goods
and services
11%

6

Source: Eurostat household spending for 2011, VisionMobile

Food and nonalcoholic beverages
12%

Copyright VisionMobile 2013
Fundamental shift in how value is captured and delivered
asymmetry challenges the very fundamentals of traditional business models
Communications

3%

mobile telephony
telco is at the center of the value distribution

Alcoholic
beverages,
tobacco and
narcotics
3%
Clothing and
footwear
6%

Health
3%

Communicatio
ns
3%

Education
3%
Housing,
water,
electricity, gas
and other fuels
23%

Furnishings,
household
equipment
maintenance
6%
Transport
13%

Restaurants
and hotels
8%

Recreation and
culture
9%

Miscellaneous
goods and
services
11%

Food and nonalcoholic
beverages
12%

mobile computing
multi-polar value distribution

…but, apps are just
the
tip of the iceberg

7

Source: VisionMobile

Copyright VisionMobile 2013
Fundamental shift in how competition is defined
challenges business models of incumbents

competition between
products

competition between
industries

inside-out thinking

outside-in thinking

defined by product features
what product the customer will buy?

defined by product benefits
what customer is trying to get done?

vs.

vs.

“selling a newspaper”

“killing 10 minutes of time”

vs.

vs.

“selling a phone service”

8

“keep in touch with friends”
Source: VisionMobile

Copyright VisionMobile 2013
Fundamental shift in the basis of competition in mobile
companies need new capabilities to compete in this new market environment

mobile telephony

mobile computing

4 apps

1M apps

(voice, text, contacts, camera)

(encompassing all user needs)

value
creation

value
distribution
value
capture

telco and
their suppliers

ecosystem owners
and participants

business
models
9

telco

proven & predictable

new & unpredictable

Source: VisionMobile

digital ecosystems
(iOS, Android, Amazon, FB, …)

Copyright VisionMobile 2013
The success formula of ecosystem business models
based on case studies of Apple, Google, Amazon, Facebook, KakaoTalk, and others

1redefine the market in terms of what customer is trying to get done
3

2 identify complements to your product

boost demand for complements and ensure supply

4 bundle your product with the flow of value

10

Copyright VisionMobile 2013
The 101 of economics of complements
widely used by Internet players in competitive strategies

Core product

Complement

A product consumed
with the main product

Product demand increases
as complement price decrease

11

Copyright VisionMobile 2013
Apple ecosystem recipe

12

Copyright VisionMobile 2013
Apple media business – a $8.5B empire? (fiscal 2012 )
but the real story is bigger than that

apps, games

magazines,
newspapers

Bigger than
13

music, movies

ebooks

combined
Copyright VisionMobile 2013
Why Apple is in the media and apps business?

iPhone

Lion share of Apple revenues are coming from sale of iPhone, iPad and Mac devices

iPad
Mac
We run the App Store just a little over breakeven
iTunes

Peter Oppenheimer,
Apple CFO
14

Source – TechCrunch, Company reports

Copyright VisionMobile 2013
The mechanics of Apple iOS ecosystem
ecosystem around iOS platform is designed to drive hardware sales

telcos reduce friction
for the iPhone business

contributes App Store
to offer $$$ and
user engagement

content, apps
and services

users and data plans

access to market
complements, revenue
share

subsidies

operators

developers
sw publishers
content retailers
content owners
internet players
brands
verticals

iOS platform
premium
product experience

accessory
manufacturers

premium $$$

contribution
how value is captured

15

Copyright VisionMobile 2013
Apple iOS ecosystem recipe
ecosystem recipe
redefine
the market
complements

apps and content

boost demand

make it easy for users to discover
and obtain apps

bundle
with demand

16

communicate, play , work and
relax on the go
(computing on the go)

Apple devices

Copyright VisionMobile 2013
Google ecosystem recipe

17

Copyright VisionMobile 2013
Why Google is in the mobile business?
Lion share of Google revenues is coming from online advertising

18

Copyright VisionMobile 2013
Google strategy pillars: Flatten, expand & mine
Flatten anything standing between eyeballs and ad inventory
Uses the economics of complements to increase the value of Google’s core
product. Android and Chrome strategies are examples.

Expand the footprint of ad inventory
Across user journey by introducing new services like Gmail, Google Maps,
YouTube, Google TV.

Mine information on every user
Helps Google to better micro-target users directly increasing the value of its
inventory. Mobile payments will provide even more customer intelligence.

19

Copyright VisionMobile 2013
The mechanics of Google Android ecosystem
drives eyeballs, consumer insights and commoditization of mobile
Google
app developers
media publishers

telcos reduce friction
for Android distribution

eyeballs,
insights

contributes
mobile
platform

monetisation
& user reach
content, apps
and services

data plans,
app sales rev. share
handset subsidies

operators

technology and design
handsets

Android platform
mass-market
product experience

Handset OEMs

eyeballs

contribution
how value is captured

20

Copyright VisionMobile 2013
Google Android ecosystem recipe
ecosystem recipe
redefine
the market

computing on
the go

affordable mobile
internet

complements

apps and content

handsets, networks
and apps

boost demand

make it easy for users
to discover and obtain
apps

commoditise
handsets, networks
and apps

bundle
your products

21

Apple devices

Google services

Play, Search, Maps,
YouTube, Plus, Gmail, Drive

Copyright VisionMobile 2013
Amazon ecosystem recipe

22

Copyright VisionMobile 2013
Amazon: From books to dominant e-commerce platform
transformed itself expanding onto new areas and business models

Kindle devices
(“mobile storefront”)
platform for
3rd party sellers
(2M sellers)

E&GM
books and
media
23

Copyright VisionMobile 2013
Amazon: A $60B e-commerce empire
but running on a single-digit profit margins
Amazon 2012 revenues: $61.1B
Other services
AWS, credit cards,
other seller sites, …
Electronics &
General
Merchandise
Electronics
Computers
Home, Garden &
Tools
Grocery
Health & Beauty
Toys, Kids & Baby
Clothing, Shoes
Jewelry
Sports & Outdoors
Automotive &
Industrial
24

$2.5B
4%

$19.9B
33%
$38.6B
63%

Media
Books
Music
Movies
Games
Software

Copyright VisionMobile 2013
What business is Amazon in?
“Amazon is in the business of taking
the right decisions for customers”
Amazon VP of Design, Brian Kralyevich at SXSW

25

Copyright VisionMobile 2013
Amazon expertise: Convert engagement into sales
The retailing business depends on ‘foot traffic’ to Amazon and depth of consumer insights

Recommendations

Traffic to Amazon

20%-30% of sales come from recommendations **
Only 16% of people go to Amazon with
explicit intent to buy something **
(** Andreas Weingend, ex Chief Scientist at Amazon)

26

Copyright VisionMobile 2013
For Amazon, Kindle is an alternative to Google
’foot traffic’ can be acquired by ads, affiliates, developing apps or subsidizing devices
$$$ - Search ads

Online ads

Traffic to Amazon

$$$ - Referrals

Affiliates

Traffic to Amazon

$$$ - Amazon apps

Smartphone apps

Traffic to Amazon

$$$ - Device subsidies

Subsidized devices

Traffic to Amazon

$$$ - Revenue share

Telco/OEM as affiliates

Traffic to Amazon

Source: VisionMobile
Copyright VisionMobile 2013
“Our business approach is to sell premium hardware at
roughly breakeven prices. We want to make money when
people use our devices – not when people buy our devices.”
Jeff Bezos, Amazon

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000119312513151836/d511111dex991.htm

28

Copyright VisionMobile 2013
The mechanics of Amazon Kindle ecosystem
drives foot traffic to its retail properties making most of Amazon users
app developers
media publishers
monetisation
& user reach

applications
and services

content and E&GM
retailing

traffic
contribute devices

nothing

Amazon
Fire platform

Personalized content
and shopping
experience

proven software stack

open–source OS

traffic

contribution
how value is captured

29

Copyright VisionMobile 2013
Amazon is playing in winner-takes-all market
reinvests the profits to become the only winner
invested $13.9 in fulfillment infrastructure including 50 new facilities since 2010

source: Ben Evans
30

Copyright VisionMobile 2013
Amazon ‘Fire’ ecosystem recipe
all play in devices, but for very different reasons and with different business models

ecosystem recipe
redefine
the market

affordable mobile
internet

convenient leanback shopping

complements

apps and content

handsets,
networks and apps

tablets

boost demand

make it easy for
users to discover
and obtain apps

commoditise
handsets,
networks and apps

sell tablets at cost

bundle
your products

31

computing on
the go

Apple devices

Google services

Play, Search, Maps,
YouTube, Plus, Gmail, Drive

Kindle as a mobile
storefront’

Copyright VisionMobile 2013
What about telco?
Copyright VisionMobile 2013
Telecom was disrupted by asymmetric competition
that forced value migration from telecom to adjacent industries

contribute content,
killing telco content
business

market
telco and OEM
thought they own

device sales

33

Copyright VisionMobile 2013
Telecom was disrupted by asymmetric competition
that forced value migration from telecom to adjacent industries

eyeballs and consumer
intelligence
contribute content,
killing telco content
business

contribute mobile platform,
killing traditional OEM business

market
telco and OEM
thought they own

device sales

34

Copyright VisionMobile 2013
Telecom was disrupted by asymmetric competition
that forced value migration from telecom to adjacent industries

eyeballs and consumer
intelligence
contribute content,
killing telco content
business
device sales

35

contribute mobile platform,
killing traditional OEM business

market
telco and OEM
thought they own

contribute devices
turning distribution
on its head
e-commerce traffic

Copyright VisionMobile 2013
Telecom was disrupted by asymmetric competition
that forced value migration from telecom to adjacent industries

eyeballs and consumer
intelligence
contribute content,
killing telco content
business

market
telco and OEM
thought they own

device sales

contribute services,
bleeding core telco business

36

contribute mobile platform,
killing traditional OEM business
contribute devices
turning distribution
on its head
e-commerce traffic

user engagement

Copyright VisionMobile 2013
The 3rd wave of disruption in the handset market
hardware becomes distribution vehicle for digital services and e-commerce

traditional model
hardware = profits

emerging model
hardware = distribution

take most
profits

“demolition derby”
break-even or
lose money
No Name

37

Source: VisionMobile

?

?

Copyright VisionMobile 2013
Taking it to extreme: Handsets as a distribution channel

high-end
specs

promotes
a politician
38

Copyright VisionMobile 2013
The success formula of ecosystem business models
Use the formula to greatly increase your market opportunity
redefine the market
identify complements
boost demand
bundle with the flow

If you don't, someone else will

39

Copyright VisionMobile 2013
Knowledge. Passion. Innovation.

Let’s talk!

michael@visionmobile.com
Michael Vakulenko | Strategy Director | @mvakulenko

Updated: 12 November 2010

Copyright VisionMobile 2013
Copyright VisionMobile 2011
want more?

“Mobile Innovation Economics”
first-of-its-kind workshop on the
mechanics of mobile business models
http://visionmobile.com/strategy

Copyright VisionMobile 2013

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VisionMobile - Business models of mobile ecosystems - Digital Winners

  • 1. VisionMobile Ecosystems Workshop at DIGITAL WINNERS November 2013 Copyright VisionMobile 2013 Copyright VisionMobile 2012
  • 2. VisionMobile | the ecosystem analysts Developer Economics Mobile Business Models Trends watch The biggest, most global developer research platform Thought-leading research for managing disruption and reinventing your business Tracking under-the-radar industry trends Tier-1 clients Digital ecosystem experts Media coverage trusted by the top brand names in mobile Thought leaders in the economics of ecosystems and telecoms in the software era Global media reach Copyright VisionMobile 2013
  • 3. apps, devices shifting basis of competition asymmetric business models cross-industry competitive arenas 3 Apps are just the tip of the iceberg Copyright VisionMobile 2013
  • 4. 2000s: Mobile and computing are separate islands Telecom island private, vertically integrated, intelligent network Computing island public, horizontally integrated, dumb network Dumb & closed Intelligent & open Intelligence = software 4 Copyright VisionMobile 2013
  • 5. Today: Mobile computing brought the two together Convergence led to clash of business models and emergence of new leaders Intelligent & open Intelligence = software 5 Copyright VisionMobile 2013
  • 6. Fundamental shift in how value is created value is created on top of digital ecosystems in all aspects of user needs mobile telephony mobile computing telco are the gatekeepers of the communication needs (less than 5% of spending) ecosystems are the gatekeepers for the rest 95% of needs Communications Health 3% Communications 3% Alcoholic beverages, tobacco and narcotics 3% 3% Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 23% Clothing and footwear 6% household spending EU27 Furnishings, household equipment maintenance 6% Education 3% household spending EU27 Transport 13% Restaurants and hotels 8% Recreation and culture 9% Miscellaneous goods and services 11% 6 Source: Eurostat household spending for 2011, VisionMobile Food and nonalcoholic beverages 12% Copyright VisionMobile 2013
  • 7. Fundamental shift in how value is captured and delivered asymmetry challenges the very fundamentals of traditional business models Communications 3% mobile telephony telco is at the center of the value distribution Alcoholic beverages, tobacco and narcotics 3% Clothing and footwear 6% Health 3% Communicatio ns 3% Education 3% Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 23% Furnishings, household equipment maintenance 6% Transport 13% Restaurants and hotels 8% Recreation and culture 9% Miscellaneous goods and services 11% Food and nonalcoholic beverages 12% mobile computing multi-polar value distribution …but, apps are just the tip of the iceberg 7 Source: VisionMobile Copyright VisionMobile 2013
  • 8. Fundamental shift in how competition is defined challenges business models of incumbents competition between products competition between industries inside-out thinking outside-in thinking defined by product features what product the customer will buy? defined by product benefits what customer is trying to get done? vs. vs. “selling a newspaper” “killing 10 minutes of time” vs. vs. “selling a phone service” 8 “keep in touch with friends” Source: VisionMobile Copyright VisionMobile 2013
  • 9. Fundamental shift in the basis of competition in mobile companies need new capabilities to compete in this new market environment mobile telephony mobile computing 4 apps 1M apps (voice, text, contacts, camera) (encompassing all user needs) value creation value distribution value capture telco and their suppliers ecosystem owners and participants business models 9 telco proven & predictable new & unpredictable Source: VisionMobile digital ecosystems (iOS, Android, Amazon, FB, …) Copyright VisionMobile 2013
  • 10. The success formula of ecosystem business models based on case studies of Apple, Google, Amazon, Facebook, KakaoTalk, and others 1redefine the market in terms of what customer is trying to get done 3 2 identify complements to your product boost demand for complements and ensure supply 4 bundle your product with the flow of value 10 Copyright VisionMobile 2013
  • 11. The 101 of economics of complements widely used by Internet players in competitive strategies Core product Complement A product consumed with the main product Product demand increases as complement price decrease 11 Copyright VisionMobile 2013
  • 13. Apple media business – a $8.5B empire? (fiscal 2012 ) but the real story is bigger than that apps, games magazines, newspapers Bigger than 13 music, movies ebooks combined Copyright VisionMobile 2013
  • 14. Why Apple is in the media and apps business? iPhone Lion share of Apple revenues are coming from sale of iPhone, iPad and Mac devices iPad Mac We run the App Store just a little over breakeven iTunes Peter Oppenheimer, Apple CFO 14 Source – TechCrunch, Company reports Copyright VisionMobile 2013
  • 15. The mechanics of Apple iOS ecosystem ecosystem around iOS platform is designed to drive hardware sales telcos reduce friction for the iPhone business contributes App Store to offer $$$ and user engagement content, apps and services users and data plans access to market complements, revenue share subsidies operators developers sw publishers content retailers content owners internet players brands verticals iOS platform premium product experience accessory manufacturers premium $$$ contribution how value is captured 15 Copyright VisionMobile 2013
  • 16. Apple iOS ecosystem recipe ecosystem recipe redefine the market complements apps and content boost demand make it easy for users to discover and obtain apps bundle with demand 16 communicate, play , work and relax on the go (computing on the go) Apple devices Copyright VisionMobile 2013
  • 18. Why Google is in the mobile business? Lion share of Google revenues is coming from online advertising 18 Copyright VisionMobile 2013
  • 19. Google strategy pillars: Flatten, expand & mine Flatten anything standing between eyeballs and ad inventory Uses the economics of complements to increase the value of Google’s core product. Android and Chrome strategies are examples. Expand the footprint of ad inventory Across user journey by introducing new services like Gmail, Google Maps, YouTube, Google TV. Mine information on every user Helps Google to better micro-target users directly increasing the value of its inventory. Mobile payments will provide even more customer intelligence. 19 Copyright VisionMobile 2013
  • 20. The mechanics of Google Android ecosystem drives eyeballs, consumer insights and commoditization of mobile Google app developers media publishers telcos reduce friction for Android distribution eyeballs, insights contributes mobile platform monetisation & user reach content, apps and services data plans, app sales rev. share handset subsidies operators technology and design handsets Android platform mass-market product experience Handset OEMs eyeballs contribution how value is captured 20 Copyright VisionMobile 2013
  • 21. Google Android ecosystem recipe ecosystem recipe redefine the market computing on the go affordable mobile internet complements apps and content handsets, networks and apps boost demand make it easy for users to discover and obtain apps commoditise handsets, networks and apps bundle your products 21 Apple devices Google services Play, Search, Maps, YouTube, Plus, Gmail, Drive Copyright VisionMobile 2013
  • 23. Amazon: From books to dominant e-commerce platform transformed itself expanding onto new areas and business models Kindle devices (“mobile storefront”) platform for 3rd party sellers (2M sellers) E&GM books and media 23 Copyright VisionMobile 2013
  • 24. Amazon: A $60B e-commerce empire but running on a single-digit profit margins Amazon 2012 revenues: $61.1B Other services AWS, credit cards, other seller sites, … Electronics & General Merchandise Electronics Computers Home, Garden & Tools Grocery Health & Beauty Toys, Kids & Baby Clothing, Shoes Jewelry Sports & Outdoors Automotive & Industrial 24 $2.5B 4% $19.9B 33% $38.6B 63% Media Books Music Movies Games Software Copyright VisionMobile 2013
  • 25. What business is Amazon in? “Amazon is in the business of taking the right decisions for customers” Amazon VP of Design, Brian Kralyevich at SXSW 25 Copyright VisionMobile 2013
  • 26. Amazon expertise: Convert engagement into sales The retailing business depends on ‘foot traffic’ to Amazon and depth of consumer insights Recommendations Traffic to Amazon 20%-30% of sales come from recommendations ** Only 16% of people go to Amazon with explicit intent to buy something ** (** Andreas Weingend, ex Chief Scientist at Amazon) 26 Copyright VisionMobile 2013
  • 27. For Amazon, Kindle is an alternative to Google ’foot traffic’ can be acquired by ads, affiliates, developing apps or subsidizing devices $$$ - Search ads Online ads Traffic to Amazon $$$ - Referrals Affiliates Traffic to Amazon $$$ - Amazon apps Smartphone apps Traffic to Amazon $$$ - Device subsidies Subsidized devices Traffic to Amazon $$$ - Revenue share Telco/OEM as affiliates Traffic to Amazon Source: VisionMobile Copyright VisionMobile 2013
  • 28. “Our business approach is to sell premium hardware at roughly breakeven prices. We want to make money when people use our devices – not when people buy our devices.” Jeff Bezos, Amazon http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000119312513151836/d511111dex991.htm 28 Copyright VisionMobile 2013
  • 29. The mechanics of Amazon Kindle ecosystem drives foot traffic to its retail properties making most of Amazon users app developers media publishers monetisation & user reach applications and services content and E&GM retailing traffic contribute devices nothing Amazon Fire platform Personalized content and shopping experience proven software stack open–source OS traffic contribution how value is captured 29 Copyright VisionMobile 2013
  • 30. Amazon is playing in winner-takes-all market reinvests the profits to become the only winner invested $13.9 in fulfillment infrastructure including 50 new facilities since 2010 source: Ben Evans 30 Copyright VisionMobile 2013
  • 31. Amazon ‘Fire’ ecosystem recipe all play in devices, but for very different reasons and with different business models ecosystem recipe redefine the market affordable mobile internet convenient leanback shopping complements apps and content handsets, networks and apps tablets boost demand make it easy for users to discover and obtain apps commoditise handsets, networks and apps sell tablets at cost bundle your products 31 computing on the go Apple devices Google services Play, Search, Maps, YouTube, Plus, Gmail, Drive Kindle as a mobile storefront’ Copyright VisionMobile 2013
  • 32. What about telco? Copyright VisionMobile 2013
  • 33. Telecom was disrupted by asymmetric competition that forced value migration from telecom to adjacent industries contribute content, killing telco content business market telco and OEM thought they own device sales 33 Copyright VisionMobile 2013
  • 34. Telecom was disrupted by asymmetric competition that forced value migration from telecom to adjacent industries eyeballs and consumer intelligence contribute content, killing telco content business contribute mobile platform, killing traditional OEM business market telco and OEM thought they own device sales 34 Copyright VisionMobile 2013
  • 35. Telecom was disrupted by asymmetric competition that forced value migration from telecom to adjacent industries eyeballs and consumer intelligence contribute content, killing telco content business device sales 35 contribute mobile platform, killing traditional OEM business market telco and OEM thought they own contribute devices turning distribution on its head e-commerce traffic Copyright VisionMobile 2013
  • 36. Telecom was disrupted by asymmetric competition that forced value migration from telecom to adjacent industries eyeballs and consumer intelligence contribute content, killing telco content business market telco and OEM thought they own device sales contribute services, bleeding core telco business 36 contribute mobile platform, killing traditional OEM business contribute devices turning distribution on its head e-commerce traffic user engagement Copyright VisionMobile 2013
  • 37. The 3rd wave of disruption in the handset market hardware becomes distribution vehicle for digital services and e-commerce traditional model hardware = profits emerging model hardware = distribution take most profits “demolition derby” break-even or lose money No Name 37 Source: VisionMobile ? ? Copyright VisionMobile 2013
  • 38. Taking it to extreme: Handsets as a distribution channel high-end specs promotes a politician 38 Copyright VisionMobile 2013
  • 39. The success formula of ecosystem business models Use the formula to greatly increase your market opportunity redefine the market identify complements boost demand bundle with the flow If you don't, someone else will 39 Copyright VisionMobile 2013
  • 40. Knowledge. Passion. Innovation. Let’s talk! michael@visionmobile.com Michael Vakulenko | Strategy Director | @mvakulenko Updated: 12 November 2010 Copyright VisionMobile 2013 Copyright VisionMobile 2011
  • 41. want more? “Mobile Innovation Economics” first-of-its-kind workshop on the mechanics of mobile business models http://visionmobile.com/strategy Copyright VisionMobile 2013