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  1. 1. State of the World<br />
  2. 2. Conclusions: a 2050 world?<br />Global issues can be depressing<br />The good news: most signs point to a better world in the future.<br />That does not mean that people will no longer be impoverished, malnourished, have HIV/AIDS or face gender inequality etc.<br />Instead the percentage of people suffering from these issues will be lower <br />
  3. 3. Big Issues of Today in the Future?<br />Malaria and HIV/AIDS: If the last decade has any predictive power: Plan to see these two issues be of significantly less importance. Malaria will eventually be akin to Polio. HIV/AIDS will be treatable and knowledge will increase about its transmission; remember HIV/AIDS only started in the 1980’s.<br />Poverty: More people will move out of poverty, but largely dependent upon population growth and resources.<br />If India can imitate China and quell population growth, % living in poverty can drastically change<br />
  4. 4. Gender Inequality & Violence Against Women<br />As literacy rates and access to education improves for women, gender inequality will decrease<br />Changing status of women in US since 1920<br />As Chinese women have become more educated and entered work force, they face less discrimination.<br />One child policy and tradition still leaves families preferring male children<br />As long as dowry continues, discrimination against women will continue<br />I predict dowry will be socially inexcusable by 2050<br />
  5. 5. A 2050 world?<br />Don’t expect a unipolar world with US dominance<br />A new cold war?<br />Threat from global terrorism will decrease<br />Most countries will be democracies<br />The good news: democracies rarely fight one another.<br />The bad news: Democracies often experience higher level of internal violence<br />
  6. 6. A 2050 World<br />Africa as the world’s food basket?<br />Resource wars: wars of the future will be fought over water, land, and fuel<br />Increased level of migration<br />Universal Access to internet will further transform the world: create new security issues, create access to information, create greater demands from population<br />English remain as the lingua franca? Should we learn Chinese?<br />
  7. 7. What issues will dominate ?<br />Environment: if same agricultural methods, resource use, and deforestation continue, the world will be significantly ‘less healthy’. <br />Overpopulation: more people, living longer=need for more resource. Unless there is a drastic global decline in fertility rates…(not likely)<br />Resources: As a result of environmental issues and overpopulation, resources will be less limited. <br />
  8. 8. How can it change?<br />CORRUPTION must end from the personal level to the highest ranks<br />World Bank and IMF are detrimental as long as they require structural adjustment programs.<br />MNC’s should not be tax exempt for locating abroad<br />This is not penalizing capitalism, it is valuing human existence and rights.<br />When I feed the poor, I’m called a saint. When I ask why the poor have no food, I’m called a communist-Dom HelderCamara<br />
  9. 9. How can it change?<br />MNC’s must be subject to global standards of accountability (minimum wage, benefits, working conditions) and their workers should be allowed to unionize. <br />Who and how to enforce? Regional organizations, some actual power to the UN, penalties if not. <br />Global dependence on oil must change, once it does the Middle East will be forced to democratize and we will not be dependent upon despotic regimes<br />
  10. 10. Who can change it?<br />Single most important factor is an educated population<br />An educated population will not stand with a corrupt government and will demand accountability<br />Nothing wrong with some global shaming<br />Media needs to transform its role<br />As long as US is superpower it must walk the walk and talk the talk<br />Do not underestimate the power of committed individuals and groups to bring about change<br />