Experiencia Internacional en Políticas Públicas para cerrar la brecha digital


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Howard Williams, Profesor emérito Universidad de Strathclyde, consultor internacional

Congreso Andesco de Servicios Públicos y TIC 14º Nacional y 5º Internacional, Cartagena Colombia, Junio 27, 28 y 29 de 2012

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Experiencia Internacional en Políticas Públicas para cerrar la brecha digital

  1. 1. Securing the infrastructure -international reflections Professor Howard Williams
  2. 2. Main themes• Distributional issues• BB eco system• Infrastructure
  3. 3. Distributional Issues• We need ask the fundamental question about the specific values and returns we expect from BB infrastructures?• Trade perspectives and call patterns• This is not a straight forward question !• There are profound distributional issues – Sprint and Apple in the USA; $15bn transfer• Colombia has reached a key point; over 4 million connections, high growth rates in the recent past.• Who are those without access?• Who is extracting value from those who have access?• Theoretical issues – greatest distortion flow from distorted/subsidised input prices (Diamond/Mireless)
  4. 4. Overselling BB – Charles Kenny Year Predicted Values at Given GDP/Capita Average Values Average ValuesIncome level 1,000 5,000 10,000 30,000 Poor RichSecure Internet servers (per 1 million people) 2001 neg 21 38 64 5 66 2008 neg 109 205 357 15 331Fixed broadband subscribers (per 100 people) 2001 neg 0.6 1 1.7 0 1.8 2008 neg 5.7 10.1 16.9 1.3 16Internet users (per 100 people) 2001 neg 9 15 24 2 25 2008 neg 24 36 54 12 50Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people) 2001 neg 21 32 51 6 53 2008 24 71 91 124 52 115Fixed line subscriptions (per 100 people) 2001 neg 19 28 42 8.6 41.8 2008 neg 17 24 37 8.3 35.1% of Firms Using Email 2009 49 69 77 91 59 81% of Firms using Own Website 2009 16 39 49 66 27 55Literacy rate, adult total (% ) 2008 66 83 91 103 75 95School enrollment, tertiary (% gross) 2008 6 32 43 61 20 60Value Lost Due to Power Outages (% of Sales) 2009 6 4 3 1 6 2ICT Exenditure ($/capita) 2008 59 290 576 1714 206 1429GDP Density (000/km) 2008 neg 8518 17690 32229 417 26926Rural population (% of total population) 2008 68 48 39 25 57 28(Average GDP/Capita) 2001 3,526 25,278 2008 3,553 24,926
  5. 5. Two sided markets: Low spend customers benefit most from receiving calls Through CPP, revenue from received calls allows low spending users to be connected, even though the scale of subsidy is small. Contribution to total ARPU, by value > Although high spending customers receive a lot ofMaking calls calls, the revenue from this is greatly exceeded by what they pay for making calls. > The majority of revenue for the lowest spendingReceiving calls group comes from receiving calls. > Low spending users are able to maintain a pre-pay 11% 17% 17% 13% 9% 7% 5% 4% 7% 10% Percentage of the total mobile users in each ARPU band account without an Source: Vodafone customers in Delhi ongoing subscription. > The lowest spending group 7 Making Broadband Accessible for All represent 2012 of users but 03 July 11% only 1% of revenue.
  6. 6. Bringing broadband to the majority of citizensFibre offers the fastest speeds at the greatest cost (suitable for high demand users);wireless is the cheapest and fastest way to reach universal broadband coverage. Fibre Wireless > Optical fibre offers broadband connections up > Wireless broadband can offer speeds from <1Mb/s to 100Mb/s (3G and its developments HSPA+) to over 40Mb/s > Fibre is very costly to install; as access network (LTE) it is only commercially viable in densely- > Bringing wireless broadband to rural areas will populated, affluent areas require significant investment but remains the > 70% of the cost of a next generation fibre cheapest access technology network is in the last 100m of the access > Advanced services, such as e-health, can be reliably network provided using wireless broadband Fibre 100 Streamed Speed (Mbit/s) Cable LTE HD video 10 Advanced ADSL HSPA+ e-health 3G YouTube 1 Internet, Email 03 July 2012 8 Making Broadband Accessible for All
  7. 7. Relative viability of fibre and wireless broadband in India Only the dense urban areas have sufficient aggregate monthly income per km2 to support the cost of a fibre access network, but almost all districts support wireless. Network cost as a % of district income Maharashtra illustrates the urban / rural split Wireless > The equivalent monthly cost of fibre per km2 can be determined by the revenue per customer that WIK calculated as being necessary to support a viableRural geotype network, for each geotype. > Placing each district into its geotype, we can compare the aggregate monthly income per district to the calculated monthly income (Net District Domestic Product/NDDP). > ITU data shows the demand for telecom services is commonly 2-5% of state GDP.Dense rural geotype > The cost of fibre would represent 1% of NDDP in Mumbai and 4% in Thane. These are ‘dense urban’ Only in Mumbai and Thane and ‘less suburban geotypes’. In all other districts, districts does the cost of fibre the equivalent cost of fibre would be a much greater approach wireless, as a % of % of district income, rising to 61% of NDDP in monthly NDDP Washim and 177% in Gadchiroli. > The equivalent cost of wireless broadband is 3% or less of district income. Source: State Economic Census for Maharashtra, WIK study of fibre network cost, Vodafone analysis03 July 2012 9
  8. 8. Relative viability of fibre and wireless broadband in Jo’burg Repeating exercise for suburbs of Johannesburg shows that fibre roll-out likely to be challenging for the majority of the population Joburg highlights economics of bbd investment Fibre network cost as a % of income > Repeat exercise for districts of Jo’burg. > The richest parts of Jo’burg are in high cost deployment areas; whereas low income areas are in dense areas which are lower cost to deploy. > The cost of fibre would represent over 10% of income Diepkloof. Whereas, high income levels in Parkview means it is profitable to deploy fibre. > The equivalent cost of wireless broadband for Diepkloof is 4% or less of income. Wireless is less than half the cost of fibre for low income areas of Johannesburg03 July 2012 10
  9. 9. Relative viability of fibre and wireless broadband in India Charting the equivalent monthly cost of fibre and wireless networks as a % of monthly district income demonstrates that fibre only affordable in dense urban districts, but that wireless is less than 4% of monthly NDDP in all except the most rural districts. Maharashtra Karnataka Rajasthan Gadchiroli wireless 8% / fibre 177% Churu wireless 3% / fibre 131% Washim Bikaner wireless 3% / fibre 127% Osmanabad Barmer wireless 3% / fibre 170% Hingoli Jaisalmer wireless 12% / fibre 573% Yavatmal U.Kannada Beed Koppal Jalore Jalna Chamarajanagar Nagaur Buldhana Bijapur Tonk Dhule Chikmagalur Jodhpur Amravati Chitradurga Baran Sindhudurg Raichur Pali Nandurbar Bidar Cittoragarh Chandrapur Gadag Jhalawar Wardha Chikballapur Hanumangarh Rural Parbhani Hassan Bundi Gondia Tumkur Karoli Ratnagiri Shimoga Sirohi Ahmednagar Kodagu Sriganganagar Solapur Bagalkot Udaipur Satara Bellary Bhilwara Nanded Gulbarga Dungarpur Latur Haveri Swaimadhopur Akola Mandya Dholpur Bhandara Ramanagara Sikar Jalgaon Belgaum Jhunjhunu Sangli Davanagere Rajsamand Dense rural Aurangabad Kolar Dausa Raigad Udupi Ajmer Nashik Mysore Bharatpur Kolhapur Dharwad Kota Nagpur Bangalore rural Alwar Pune D.Kannada Jaipur Banswara Less suburban Thane Dense urban Mumbai Bangalore 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%03 July 2012 All 11
  10. 10. Professor Howard Williams howard.williams@strath.ac.uk
  11. 11. Additional highlights from the presentation include:- The average internet user in Colombia spent 20.4 hours online during September,consuming 1,606 pages of content and averaging 42 online visits during the month.- 86% of Colombians visited a social networking destination in September, withFacebook leading the category. Visitors averaged 4.6 hours on the site during themonth.- Nearly 7 out of 10 Colombians visited a photo sharing site in September led byFacebook.com Photos.- An average searcher in Colombia conducted 184 searches in September, resultingin a total of 2 billion queries conducted in Colombia during the month.(comScore, December 2010)