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MUSINGS ABOUT THE
POST-COVID19 WORLD
Anant Kadiyala
3/21/2020
2
Please follow this Creative Commons license scheme to reuse this content.
This content is for information purposes only. All opinions mine.
3 © Anant Kadiyala Twitter: @akadiyala
Healthcare
• DDoS of healthcare system
o Financial crunch for providers
o Possible changes to payer business model?
• Rise of telehealth, digital therapeutics, right-to-try, and
personalized medicine (based on omics)
o Mobile-first & Voice/video enabled UX
o Know your patient and Patient 360 initiatives
o Fundamental changes to primary care delivery, for the better
• The biotech decade : 2020-2030
o Rapid adoption of cloud, AI/ML & analytics. Possibly blockchain
o Filliping into the post-antibiotics era
• Demand for home fitness & wellness solutions
• Resurgence of superbugs & side effects of
excessive disinfectants usage
• Rise of PTSD, depression, addictions, and
mental health issues
4 © Anant Kadiyala Twitter: @akadiyala
Germaphobia
• Obsessive monitoring of facilities and environment - drones,
disinfecting robots, etc
• Preference for touchless and voice-first UX
• Usage of robots in hospitality industry
• People hesitant to handle cash and paper
o Acceleration of RPA and digital payments
• Rise of e-commerce and online life
o New demographics are forced to try it
• New personal and work habits, new social norms
o Ready for VR based industry conferences/events?
• Rise of social and local mistrust/safety
o New variants of hate crimes and aggression
o More surveillance
5 © Anant Kadiyala Twitter: @akadiyala
Under/unemployment
• Rise of Passion Economy entrepreneurship
o <3-5 people multi-million dollar ‘enterprises’
o Beyond gig economy, tapping into inner skill/talent/creativity
o This has been a growing market over the past few years
o Demand for low code tools like airtable, wix, webflow, figma, etc
• Demand for online learning
o Passion learning & faster social mobility
o New skills and careers
o Unbundling of K12 and university education. More on slide 10
• Rise of new crop of developers, entrepreneurs, and artists
6 © Anant Kadiyala Twitter: @akadiyala
Deglobalization & automation
• Rethinking of product development and production
o Trade wars started this, Covid19 expedites it
• Acceleration of 3D printing adoption & new manufacturing models
• Zero latency supply chain investments
• Automated integrated business analysis (and execution)
• Rise of RPA for automation of workflows
o Automated procurement?
o Vendor credentialing, performance scoring, automation of contract
management?
• Global-first companies and products (despite increase of localism
in the short term)
7 © Anant Kadiyala Twitter: @akadiyala
Cloud + AI + Robotics
• Acceleration of Industry 4.0 and automation
o Due to new geopolitics and supply chain strategies
o Today’s robots and cobots are more versatile and viable
• Rise of Digital Twins
o Virtual representation of the physical world
o Machines, factories, buildings, cities, and humans
• Drones + machine vision & sensing
o Retail, construction, factories, government, warfare
• Cloud agriculture to avoid vagaries of nature
o Agritech & vertical farming is getting more viable
o Some crops more conducive to this than others
• Cloud (commercial) kitchens
o Semi or fully automated cooking
o Takeout + gig worker/autonomous delivery. No dine in
8 © Anant Kadiyala Twitter: @akadiyala
New business models
• Physical Product-as-a Service
o Financial hardships propel people towards subscription vs buying
o Software strength is immensely helpful to win with this model
o SaaS business principles will become relevant to physical product biz
o CPQ & O2C mechanics will have to change as a result
o Subscription fatigue for consumers?
• Rise of virtual/digital goods - Not just for music and video anymore
o Technologies like blockchain enable tools for trade/sharing
• Tokenization of everything
o Lower transactional cost, and increase liquidity/tradability
o New resource allocation, business, and capitalization models
• Traditional lines of industry verticals and moats will dissolve
o New configuration to evolve
• Rapid and short-lived product S-curves with deflationary economics
• New winners: Bottom up culture, ability to triage ideas quickly,
allocate capital and resources, and swift execution for TTM
9 © Anant Kadiyala Twitter: @akadiyala
Retail and Consumer Goods
• New models/modes for earning customer loyalty and attention to emerge
o Emphasis on experience design, along with speed
o New needs for business partnerships and seamless CX across verticals
• Faster roll out of cashier-less stores
o Driven by germaphobia & automation
• Autonomous last-mile, first-mile delivery
o Retail, e-commerce, grocery, pharma
• Warehouse automation to accelerate
o Drone based warehouse/yard management
o The final end of pick-wave era. Robot/AR picking now
• Automated tracking of product provenance and condition
• Companies with scale have unfair advantage
• So also companies that offer something very unique
10 © Anant Kadiyala Twitter: @akadiyala
Higher Education
• Blended learning could now go mainstream, as the preferred mode
o Online mode for learning the concepts, and meatspace for project based learning
• The unbundling of universities and K12 education to begin slowly
o The path to unbundling could be messy
• Universities have to find new ways to preserve brand value
• Many aspects education business operations will change
o Binge learning, snackable curriculums, and stackable degrees are the future
o Rise of celebrity professors that teach millions at once, and rake millions as well!
o Need for digital portability/legibility of id, skills & ’badges’ across institutions
o Digital identity will be a key need in the blended education model
• Models for lifelong learning has to evolve beyond MOOCs
o Educational relationship with students will be lifelong in an era of changing tech
o Upskilling and lifelong learning are far more important than the base degree
11 © Anant Kadiyala Twitter: @akadiyala
Media & Entertainment
• Cloud entertainment
o Enabled by convenience, immersive UX and possibly germaphobia
o Interactive online streaming games are the new hangout places for teens
o AR/VR is the next big frontier. 5G/online to fillip this further
o VR based concerts and sporting events have started already
o These experiences/formats will bleed into other industries as well
• Rise of digital assets and digital art
o Games, music, media will explore new digital business models, consumption
and sharing affordances. Cryptokitties was the crummy test flare
o Micro transactions will find new tail winds
• Rise of synthetic content
o Leverage AI to generate dynamic scenes, actors, plot lines
o Is the future of animation ‘deep fake’?!
12 © Anant Kadiyala Twitter: @akadiyala
Public Sector – People Perspective
• Heightened surveillance of citizens and erosion of privacy
o Ex: Encryption back door bill in March 2020
• Rise of national initiatives for digital identity
o May start as contact tracing and eventually extend to other areas
• New paths and mechanisms for social mobility. New barriers
o Digital literacy will become critical enabler/barrier
• Change in people’s perception of their government
o Low-trust situation in many countries
o Expectations and relationship with government will evolve
o In short-term: More self-sufficiency (food, safety, etc). Social unrest
13 © Anant Kadiyala Twitter: @akadiyala
Public Sector – Government Perspective
• More populism and nationalism in short and medium terms
o QE, bailouts, hoarding of meds and food
o “The money printer goes Brrr…”
• Rapid localization & border controls in the short term
o Country & state level controls initiate local skirmishes
o Rise of hate crimes of all stripes
• Increase in wealth gap. More unhappy citizens
• Shift in global geopolitical power dynamics underway
o New friends, new enemies, new alliances. WWII alliances end
• More open/shared data – but with new dynamics, needs
• Use of AI and big data for public health response
• Hasty deployment of AI and various digital technologies
o Unintended consequences in the long term
Source: World Economic Forum
14 © Anant Kadiyala Twitter: @akadiyala
Environmental Impact
• Soil and waterways contamination with disinfectants
• Rise of plastic and single use landfill waste – again!
• Re-expansion of Ozone hole?
• Soil damage from disinfectants - food production could drop
• Any local disasters (hurricane, earthquake & wildfires) will have
high mortality rates
• Better air & water quality due to shelter-in-place
• Reports of freedom for animals, as humans shelter-in-place!
15 © Anant Kadiyala Twitter: @akadiyala
Takeaways for the post–COVID19 world
• Anything that can be digital will be digital
• Automation in a hurry : Cobots, AI, RPA, etc
• New digital business models
• New UX & business affordances
• Online / remote affinity
• Social and geopolitical sensitivities everywhere
• ..and just like that, it all changed..!
• The anti-fragile thrive, the rest go into oblivion
• End of Industrial Revolution. The Intelligence Revolution has begun
16 © Anant Kadiyala Twitter: @akadiyala
Technology leaps lower transactional costs
Cloud lowers the cost of agility
IoT lowers the cost of monitoring
AI/ML lowers the cost of prediction
AR/VR lowers the cost of interaction
Blockchain lowers the cost of trust
17 © Anant Kadiyala Twitter: @akadiyala
Gestalt of Digital Transformation
Analog Digital
Approximation Precision
Product Service
Enterprise Customer End User
Mass Customization Mass Personalization
Selling Engaging
License sale Pay-per-use
Periodic Continuous
ROI justification Value
TCO justification Experience
THANK YOU!
Anant Kadiyala
akadiyala@gmail.com
Twitter: @akadiyala

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Musings about the post covid19 world

  • 1. MUSINGS ABOUT THE POST-COVID19 WORLD Anant Kadiyala 3/21/2020
  • 2. 2 Please follow this Creative Commons license scheme to reuse this content. This content is for information purposes only. All opinions mine.
  • 3. 3 © Anant Kadiyala Twitter: @akadiyala Healthcare • DDoS of healthcare system o Financial crunch for providers o Possible changes to payer business model? • Rise of telehealth, digital therapeutics, right-to-try, and personalized medicine (based on omics) o Mobile-first & Voice/video enabled UX o Know your patient and Patient 360 initiatives o Fundamental changes to primary care delivery, for the better • The biotech decade : 2020-2030 o Rapid adoption of cloud, AI/ML & analytics. Possibly blockchain o Filliping into the post-antibiotics era • Demand for home fitness & wellness solutions • Resurgence of superbugs & side effects of excessive disinfectants usage • Rise of PTSD, depression, addictions, and mental health issues
  • 4. 4 © Anant Kadiyala Twitter: @akadiyala Germaphobia • Obsessive monitoring of facilities and environment - drones, disinfecting robots, etc • Preference for touchless and voice-first UX • Usage of robots in hospitality industry • People hesitant to handle cash and paper o Acceleration of RPA and digital payments • Rise of e-commerce and online life o New demographics are forced to try it • New personal and work habits, new social norms o Ready for VR based industry conferences/events? • Rise of social and local mistrust/safety o New variants of hate crimes and aggression o More surveillance
  • 5. 5 © Anant Kadiyala Twitter: @akadiyala Under/unemployment • Rise of Passion Economy entrepreneurship o <3-5 people multi-million dollar ‘enterprises’ o Beyond gig economy, tapping into inner skill/talent/creativity o This has been a growing market over the past few years o Demand for low code tools like airtable, wix, webflow, figma, etc • Demand for online learning o Passion learning & faster social mobility o New skills and careers o Unbundling of K12 and university education. More on slide 10 • Rise of new crop of developers, entrepreneurs, and artists
  • 6. 6 © Anant Kadiyala Twitter: @akadiyala Deglobalization & automation • Rethinking of product development and production o Trade wars started this, Covid19 expedites it • Acceleration of 3D printing adoption & new manufacturing models • Zero latency supply chain investments • Automated integrated business analysis (and execution) • Rise of RPA for automation of workflows o Automated procurement? o Vendor credentialing, performance scoring, automation of contract management? • Global-first companies and products (despite increase of localism in the short term)
  • 7. 7 © Anant Kadiyala Twitter: @akadiyala Cloud + AI + Robotics • Acceleration of Industry 4.0 and automation o Due to new geopolitics and supply chain strategies o Today’s robots and cobots are more versatile and viable • Rise of Digital Twins o Virtual representation of the physical world o Machines, factories, buildings, cities, and humans • Drones + machine vision & sensing o Retail, construction, factories, government, warfare • Cloud agriculture to avoid vagaries of nature o Agritech & vertical farming is getting more viable o Some crops more conducive to this than others • Cloud (commercial) kitchens o Semi or fully automated cooking o Takeout + gig worker/autonomous delivery. No dine in
  • 8. 8 © Anant Kadiyala Twitter: @akadiyala New business models • Physical Product-as-a Service o Financial hardships propel people towards subscription vs buying o Software strength is immensely helpful to win with this model o SaaS business principles will become relevant to physical product biz o CPQ & O2C mechanics will have to change as a result o Subscription fatigue for consumers? • Rise of virtual/digital goods - Not just for music and video anymore o Technologies like blockchain enable tools for trade/sharing • Tokenization of everything o Lower transactional cost, and increase liquidity/tradability o New resource allocation, business, and capitalization models • Traditional lines of industry verticals and moats will dissolve o New configuration to evolve • Rapid and short-lived product S-curves with deflationary economics • New winners: Bottom up culture, ability to triage ideas quickly, allocate capital and resources, and swift execution for TTM
  • 9. 9 © Anant Kadiyala Twitter: @akadiyala Retail and Consumer Goods • New models/modes for earning customer loyalty and attention to emerge o Emphasis on experience design, along with speed o New needs for business partnerships and seamless CX across verticals • Faster roll out of cashier-less stores o Driven by germaphobia & automation • Autonomous last-mile, first-mile delivery o Retail, e-commerce, grocery, pharma • Warehouse automation to accelerate o Drone based warehouse/yard management o The final end of pick-wave era. Robot/AR picking now • Automated tracking of product provenance and condition • Companies with scale have unfair advantage • So also companies that offer something very unique
  • 10. 10 © Anant Kadiyala Twitter: @akadiyala Higher Education • Blended learning could now go mainstream, as the preferred mode o Online mode for learning the concepts, and meatspace for project based learning • The unbundling of universities and K12 education to begin slowly o The path to unbundling could be messy • Universities have to find new ways to preserve brand value • Many aspects education business operations will change o Binge learning, snackable curriculums, and stackable degrees are the future o Rise of celebrity professors that teach millions at once, and rake millions as well! o Need for digital portability/legibility of id, skills & ’badges’ across institutions o Digital identity will be a key need in the blended education model • Models for lifelong learning has to evolve beyond MOOCs o Educational relationship with students will be lifelong in an era of changing tech o Upskilling and lifelong learning are far more important than the base degree
  • 11. 11 © Anant Kadiyala Twitter: @akadiyala Media & Entertainment • Cloud entertainment o Enabled by convenience, immersive UX and possibly germaphobia o Interactive online streaming games are the new hangout places for teens o AR/VR is the next big frontier. 5G/online to fillip this further o VR based concerts and sporting events have started already o These experiences/formats will bleed into other industries as well • Rise of digital assets and digital art o Games, music, media will explore new digital business models, consumption and sharing affordances. Cryptokitties was the crummy test flare o Micro transactions will find new tail winds • Rise of synthetic content o Leverage AI to generate dynamic scenes, actors, plot lines o Is the future of animation ‘deep fake’?!
  • 12. 12 © Anant Kadiyala Twitter: @akadiyala Public Sector – People Perspective • Heightened surveillance of citizens and erosion of privacy o Ex: Encryption back door bill in March 2020 • Rise of national initiatives for digital identity o May start as contact tracing and eventually extend to other areas • New paths and mechanisms for social mobility. New barriers o Digital literacy will become critical enabler/barrier • Change in people’s perception of their government o Low-trust situation in many countries o Expectations and relationship with government will evolve o In short-term: More self-sufficiency (food, safety, etc). Social unrest
  • 13. 13 © Anant Kadiyala Twitter: @akadiyala Public Sector – Government Perspective • More populism and nationalism in short and medium terms o QE, bailouts, hoarding of meds and food o “The money printer goes Brrr…” • Rapid localization & border controls in the short term o Country & state level controls initiate local skirmishes o Rise of hate crimes of all stripes • Increase in wealth gap. More unhappy citizens • Shift in global geopolitical power dynamics underway o New friends, new enemies, new alliances. WWII alliances end • More open/shared data – but with new dynamics, needs • Use of AI and big data for public health response • Hasty deployment of AI and various digital technologies o Unintended consequences in the long term Source: World Economic Forum
  • 14. 14 © Anant Kadiyala Twitter: @akadiyala Environmental Impact • Soil and waterways contamination with disinfectants • Rise of plastic and single use landfill waste – again! • Re-expansion of Ozone hole? • Soil damage from disinfectants - food production could drop • Any local disasters (hurricane, earthquake & wildfires) will have high mortality rates • Better air & water quality due to shelter-in-place • Reports of freedom for animals, as humans shelter-in-place!
  • 15. 15 © Anant Kadiyala Twitter: @akadiyala Takeaways for the post–COVID19 world • Anything that can be digital will be digital • Automation in a hurry : Cobots, AI, RPA, etc • New digital business models • New UX & business affordances • Online / remote affinity • Social and geopolitical sensitivities everywhere • ..and just like that, it all changed..! • The anti-fragile thrive, the rest go into oblivion • End of Industrial Revolution. The Intelligence Revolution has begun
  • 16. 16 © Anant Kadiyala Twitter: @akadiyala Technology leaps lower transactional costs Cloud lowers the cost of agility IoT lowers the cost of monitoring AI/ML lowers the cost of prediction AR/VR lowers the cost of interaction Blockchain lowers the cost of trust
  • 17. 17 © Anant Kadiyala Twitter: @akadiyala Gestalt of Digital Transformation Analog Digital Approximation Precision Product Service Enterprise Customer End User Mass Customization Mass Personalization Selling Engaging License sale Pay-per-use Periodic Continuous ROI justification Value TCO justification Experience