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Grand Millenium Dam: from multilateralism to unilateralism in the Nile Basin


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Grand Millenium Dam: from multilateralism to unilateralism in the Nile Basin

  1. 1. Grand Millenium Dam in Ethiopia: moving from multilateralism towards unilateralism in the Nile Basin? Ana Elisa Cascão Transboundary Water Seminar Stockholm, 13 December 2011
  2. 2. The Nile Basin: between ideals and politics World Bank, 2000 Verhoeven, 2011
  3. 3. The Nile: a long history of skewed bilateralism <ul><li>British colonial period </li></ul><ul><li>Anglo-Egyptian Condominium </li></ul><ul><li>1929 Nile Waters Agreement </li></ul><ul><li>1959 Agreement for the Full Utilisation of the Nile Waters </li></ul><ul><li>Several Infrastructures (dams and irrigation schemes): Sennar (1925), Jebel Aulia (1937), Owen Falls (1954), Khashm El-Girba (1964), Aswan High Dam (1971), Roseires (1971), Jonglei Canal (1984...) </li></ul>
  4. 4. The Nile region: cocktail of water & politics
  5. 5. 1990s: the Nile gets multilateral <ul><li>Multilateral dialogue among riparians (including legal negotiations </li></ul><ul><li>Strong technical commitment, but ‘soft’ political commitment </li></ul><ul><li>Financial and political support from external donors </li></ul><ul><li>Promotion of a ‘Shared Vision’ (SVP) </li></ul><ul><li>Identification and preparation of Investment Projects (SAPs) </li></ul><ul><li>Pre-feasibility and feasibility studies on joint projects </li></ul><ul><li>Launching of Cooperative Regional Assessement (CRAs) </li></ul><ul><li>Promotion One System Inventory (No-borders analysis) </li></ul>
  6. 6. Eastern Nile Basin: trilateral cooperation <ul><li>Joint collaboration, identification and selection of projects/infrastructures </li></ul><ul><li>Joint Multipurpose Projects </li></ul><ul><li>Maximisation of regional benefits </li></ul><ul><li>Scoping Study </li></ul><ul><li>Scenarios </li></ul><ul><li>Benefit and Cost Sharing </li></ul><ul><li>Option Number 1: Blue Nile Cascade </li></ul><ul><li>Lack of institutional/legal ‘background’ </li></ul>‘ Opportunities for Cooperative Water Resources Development on the Eastern Nile: Risks and Rewards’ (ENTRO, 2008)
  7. 7. The cooperation cascade > > > >
  8. 8. Meanwhile... Unilateralism had been the fashion!
  9. 9. 2011: Tipping points in the Nile hydropolitics
  10. 10. Grand Renaissance Dam in the Blue Nile: an unilateral Ethiopian project?
  11. 11. Once upon a time... A bilateral project ‘sold’ as unilateral... An unilateral speech calling for multilateral cooperation... Trilateral cooperation starts in the Eastern Nile for the 1st time in history
  12. 12. Finally a riparians-driven cooperation? <ul><li>‘ We can make the issue of the Grand Renaissance Dam something useful. </li></ul><ul><li>This dam, in conjunction with the other dams, can be a path for development and construction between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt ’ </li></ul><ul><li>(Egypt's caretaker Prime-Minister Essam Sharaf, November 2011) </li></ul>
  13. 13. Implications of Great Renaissance Dam ‘issue’
  14. 14. Implications of Great Renaissance Dam ‘issue’
  15. 15. Thanks for your attention! [email_address]