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10 fn s31


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10 fn s31

  1. 1. SmartGrids  –  The  Cynics'  view Richard  Shockey Shockey  Consulting 2427  Silver  Fox  Lane Reston,  VA  20291 Voice  +1  703  593  2683 Skype/AIM/LinkedIn/Facebook  –  rshockey101
  2. 2. What  are  we  talking  about  here? • The SmartGrid is IMHO the complete redesign of the communications networks that control and deliver electric power. • There has been a substantial disinvestment in both the IT tools and communications networks that underlie the grid. – 2003 collapse of the Grid in the North East a major wake up call • Caused by communications system failure to anticipate load. • The goal. Like the Internet .. A resilient network of networks.
  3. 3. Why  ? • Buildings  account  for  70  percent  of  all  U.S. electricity  consumption  and  40  percent  of total  U.S.  greenhouse  gas  emissions.
  4. 4. SmartGrids  Need • Needs  for •    Confidentiality • IP  –  Yes  IP. •    Integrity • Authentication •    Availability • Authorization •    Access  Control  &  Intrusion • Security detection • Location •    Non_repudiation •    Role  base  access
  5. 5. What’s  the  big  rush? • Cars  ..can  you  remember  high gas  prices? • Most  of  the  energy  in  internal combustion  engines  goes  out in  heat. • Millions  of  hybrid  electric vehicles  all  plug  in  at  7  PM.  The new  DoS  Attack!
  6. 6. The  Locus  of  Attention Advanced  Metering Infrastructure  (AMI) 2.65  billion  existing  Meters Worldwide •  Only  ~  8%  Automated •Business,  Regulatory  and Environmental  Drivers  for Automation •Multi  modal  interfaces
  7. 7. What  is  happening  now  ? • 3.2  Billion  spent  so  far. • Where  are  the  standards  ?? – Sort  of  maybe  .. • C12.22 • IEC  61850 • National  Institute  of  Standards  and Technology  (NIST)  coordinating industry  wide  effort. – –
  8. 8. What  they  are  not  telling  you. • Less  than  .2  %  of  all  US  households  have  a  220  V  /  30 Amp  circuit  in  their  garage. – Plug  my  car  in  where? • Tell  you  kid  to  be  a  electrician! • The  utilities  want  end  to  end  control  of  their  network. Its  their  cash  register. • Telecos  fighting  uphill  battle  for  the  business • Spectrum  fights  only  the  beginning  (White  Spaces) • Integrating  Wind  and  Solar  is  not  as  easy  as  it  sounds and  its  still  uneconomic.  (subsidies) • Negative  spot  pricing • NIMBY  to  high  voltage  towers.
  9. 9. What  they  are  not  telling  you. • Will  rate  payers  tolerate  SmartGrid  CAPEX  in  the  ratebase? • Will  rate  payers  tolerate  Time  of  Day  pricing? • Is  there  any  savings  in  Home  Energy  Management? • The  Prius  effect  has  only  marginal  utility  (15%?) • What  the  heck  is  home  energy  management? – 802.11x  networks  vs  802.15.4 • How  do  you  bridge  the  networks? – Zero  appreciable  progress  on  home  energy  management  standards consolidation – At  least  5  competing  proposals • Highly  entrenched  economic/technical  interests. • Lack  of  Comparison  Data  appalling. – How  do  I  know  I’m  wasting  energy  if  I  cant  compare  Apples  to  Apples?
  10. 10. What  they  are  not  telling  you. • Most  of  the  utilities  are  fundamentally unaware  of  the  IPv6  issue. – Yes  I’ve  heard  ..”Well  we’ll  just  put  our  meters behind  a  NAT” • Who  owns  the  meter  data? – Can  you  spell  Google  or  Microsoft. – The  largest  potential  application  for  SAML  or OPEN  ID  ever.
  11. 11. Guess  where  we  are?
  12. 12. Conclusions • Market = BIG. Very Big. – John Chambers has been seen to drool in the hallways. • The Challenge of Scale = Technically Interesting • Utilities think differently. “Reliability” is a mantra to them . – Intuitionally very conservative – FERC, the regulator has real teeth and power to fine the utilities. • CAPEX is typically on 20 to 40 year depreciation cycles unlike the technology industry. • It’s “ the right thing to do”. ™ but I’m not holding my breath