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U.S. Energy OutlookRamon Sanchez (rsanchez@hsph.harvard.edu)           Harvard University              April 4, 2012
U.S. Total Energy Market Share           by Type of Fuel                     Slide # 2Ramon SanchezHarvard University
Petroleum Fuel    Price of fuel presents variations                            Slide # 3 Ramon Sanchez Harvard University
Energy in TransportationFuel Used in the USA in 2009                                                     2009AirCertificat...
Transportation per type of                                 vehicleTransportation Mode           Passenger Miles Traveled i...
Current Trends in Transportation     Energy efficient vehicles, people are      finding ways to use less fuel     Emergi...
Hybrid vehicles                                                    For every 100                                          ...
Hybrid Vehicle Technology                                  Slide # 8Ramon SanchezHarvard School of Public Health
Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles                                         Plug-in Hybrid: It is an electric vehicle                 ...
Limitations for plug-in hybrid             vehicle technologies       Concerns about environmental equity, pollution     ...
Electricity by type of fuel in the                    U.S.                      Proportion of U.S. Energy Source          ...
Electricity Residential Average             Price in the USA                     Slide # 12Ramon SanchezHarvard University
Emission factors for                     conventional electricity       Different emissions for electricity from differen...
Electricity from Natural Gas with          Co-generation         Natural Gas represents 24% of          electricity   It ...
Hydroelectric Power    A hydroelectric dam, provides relatively     clean energy and serves as a water     reserve for ag...
Hydroelectric Power                             Slide # 16Ramon SanchezHarvard University
Nuclear Power                                       It represents almost 20% of all                                       ...
The Clean Coal Dilemma         What is Clean Coal ?                              Monoethanolamine Plant:                 ...
The Clean Coal Dilemma            Problems with Carbon Capture and             Sequestration (i.e. Clean Coal)           ...
Solution to Clean CoalDilemma might be in renewable              fuels         Renewable Fuels: They come from          c...
Non-edible crops    Potential Solution to renewable fuel problems:     Non-edible Energy Crops (low water     requirement...
Microalgae Farming            Area of opportunity: Algae BiodieselSpecies                      Algae      Inoculation +CO...
Algae farming might pay for                      Clean Coal           Results Carbon Capture + Algae Farm               ...
Photovoltaic Electricity         Costs have decreased by 70% in the past          decade                           New   ...
Concentrated Solar Power Tech         Emerging http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AIv-gbZQC4k&feature=fvsr                   ...
New Waste-To-Energy Tech         Reduced toxic emissions and solid          waste                                        ...
Energy Efficiency Programs         People embrace this program                       Electricity used in                 ...
Wind Power                         Slide # 28Ramon SanchezHarvard University
Fuel Cell Vehicle                                                      It has no mobile parts in its engine, it           ...
Fuel Cell Technology    The main problem     with fuel cells is:     How do you get     the hydrogen in a     sustainable...
New Technologies to get                              hydrogenDaniel Nocera, formerly atMIT, now a Professor in theHarvard ...
Opportunities for domestic fuel                cells                     For more information, click in the following link...
Other applications for fuel cells                     For more information, click in the following links:                 ...
Questions??                          Slide # 34Ramon Sanchez ©Harvard University
Thank you!!!  There is nothing moredifficult to execute normore dubious of success normore dangerous to administerthan to ...
Potential problems with           conventional renewable fuels                     Oil Producing Crop           Scientific...
Potential problems with           conventional renewable fuels                        Slide # 37Ramon SanchezHarvard Unive...
Potential problems with           conventional renewable fuels         Carbon Debt due to land use changes    USA        ...
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Energy outlook pp ramon sanchez

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Energy outlook pp ramon sanchez

  1. 1. U.S. Energy OutlookRamon Sanchez (rsanchez@hsph.harvard.edu) Harvard University April 4, 2012
  2. 2. U.S. Total Energy Market Share by Type of Fuel Slide # 2Ramon SanchezHarvard University
  3. 3. Petroleum Fuel  Price of fuel presents variations Slide # 3 Ramon Sanchez Harvard University
  4. 4. Energy in TransportationFuel Used in the USA in 2009   2009AirCertificated carriersa Jet fuel (million gallons) 11,147General aviationb Aviation gasoline (million gallons) 227 Jet fuel (million gallons) 1,447HighwayGasoline, diesel and other fuels (million gallons) Light duty vehicle, short wheel base and motorcyclec 86,035 Light duty vehicle, long wheel basec 35,764 Single-unit 2-axle 6-tire or more truck 16,342 Combination truck 28,130 Bus 1,869TransitdElectricity (million kWh) 4,695Motor fuel (million gallons) Diesele f 658 Gasoline and other nondiesel fuels 98 Compressed natural gas 142 Transportation Mode Energy usedRail, Class I (in freight service)Distillate / diesel fuel (million gallons) 3,192 (MJ)Amtrak Highway 2.35E+13Electricity (million kWh) 565Distillate / diesel fuel (million gallons) 62 Air 1.97E+12WaterResidual fuel oil (million gallons) 4,543 Water 3.34E+11Distillate / diesel fuel oil (million gallons) 1,266 Transit 1.42E+11Gasoline (million gallons) 1,130 Amtrak Slide # 4 1.16E+10 Ramon Sanchez Harvard University
  5. 5. Transportation per type of vehicleTransportation Mode Passenger Miles Traveled in the USA in 2008(Millions)Passenger Vehicles 3199116SUVs 1049667Air Carriers 583281Intercity Buses 314278Trucks 310681Motorcycles 26430Inner City Buses 21198Heavy Rail 16850Commuter Rail 11032Amtrak 6179Light Rail 2081Other 1156Taxis 844Ferry Boat 390Trolley Bus 161 Slide # 5 Ramon Sanchez Harvard University
  6. 6. Current Trends in Transportation  Energy efficient vehicles, people are finding ways to use less fuel  Emerging Technologies (diesel, hybrid and electric vehicles) Slide # 6 Ramon Sanchez Harvard University
  7. 7. Hybrid vehicles For every 100 Units of Input Energy you get 32 Output Units (Overall 40 – 50 mpg) Slide # 7Ramon SanchezHarvard School of Public Health
  8. 8. Hybrid Vehicle Technology Slide # 8Ramon SanchezHarvard School of Public Health
  9. 9. Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles Plug-in Hybrid: It is an electric vehicle that uses Lithium-ion technology batteries to achieve an autonomy of 35 miles per charge (Chevy Volt). If the user would like to drive for longer distances, the hybrid system would activate the internal combustion engine and the car would become a hybrid vehicle. Under just electric operation it would give you an equivalent of 165 miles/gallon and in the hybrid operation you would get 140 miles/gallon. It takes 8 to 6 hours to recharge the battery, but it could potentially be used as a supplemental energy source for your home after a long drive, it may be good Slide # 9Ramon SanchezHarvard School of Public Health for 98 % of non-heavy duty applications.
  10. 10. Limitations for plug-in hybrid vehicle technologies  Concerns about environmental equity, pollution from mobile sources in urban areas might switch to point sources in rural areas (i.e. Power Plants)  Supply problems with rare earths needed for electromagnetic components Slide # 10Ramon SanchezHarvard University
  11. 11. Electricity by type of fuel in the U.S. Proportion of U.S. Energy Source electricity (2010) Coal 44.0% Natural Gas 24.0% Nuclear 19.5% Hydroelectric 6.3%Biomass and other 3.5% Oil 0.9% Wind 0.8% Solar 0.7% Geothermal 0.3% Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Slide # 11 Ramon Sanchez Harvard University
  12. 12. Electricity Residential Average Price in the USA Slide # 12Ramon SanchezHarvard University
  13. 13. Emission factors for conventional electricity  Different emissions for electricity from different fuel sourcesSource: Air pollution from electricity-generating large combustion plantsAn assessment of the theoretical emission reduction of SO2 and NOXthrough implementation of BAT as set in the BREFs . European EnvironmentalAgency Slide # 13Ramon SanchezHarvard University
  14. 14. Electricity from Natural Gas with Co-generation   Natural Gas represents 24% of electricity It has a higher efficiency than any other type of conventional power generation facility (close to 50% efficiency) Slide # 14Ramon SanchezHarvard University
  15. 15. Hydroelectric Power  A hydroelectric dam, provides relatively clean energy and serves as a water reserve for agriculture and human consumption Slide # 15 Ramon Sanchez Harvard University
  16. 16. Hydroelectric Power Slide # 16Ramon SanchezHarvard University
  17. 17. Nuclear Power It represents almost 20% of all energy produced in the USA Slide # 17Ramon SanchezHarvard University
  18. 18. The Clean Coal Dilemma   What is Clean Coal ? Monoethanolamine Plant: Used to toxic emissions and Capture CO2 Slide # 18Ramon SanchezHarvard University
  19. 19. The Clean Coal Dilemma   Problems with Carbon Capture and Sequestration (i.e. Clean Coal) Energy Intensive: Electricity output decreases between 18 and 23% Capital costs increase by 60% Operating costs increase by 30-40% Electricity prices increase between 80 to 100% Long-term health effects from carbon capture are unknown Clean Coal is not a myth, it Carbon sequestration is uncertain, certainis just too expensive. geological formations are required to captureElectricity generators are carbon undergroundunwilling to invest if there is Capture period is uncertain, constant monitoringno legislative mandate and risk analysis are needed Slide # 19 Ramon Sanchez Harvard University
  20. 20. Solution to Clean CoalDilemma might be in renewable fuels   Renewable Fuels: They come from carbohydrates and lipids from plants and animals, they are replenished consistently every year Slide # 20Ramon SanchezHarvard University
  21. 21. Non-edible crops  Potential Solution to renewable fuel problems: Non-edible Energy Crops (low water requirements) Jatropha Curcas Microalgae Farming Slide # 21 Ramon Sanchez Harvard University
  22. 22. Microalgae Farming   Area of opportunity: Algae BiodieselSpecies Algae Inoculation +CO2 Mixing Harvesting ExtractionSelection Culture and nutrients Soap and Glycerin Recovery Cosmetics Biodiesel Slide # 22 Ramon Sanchez Harvard University Public Health School of Transesterification
  23. 23. Algae farming might pay for Clean Coal   Results Carbon Capture + Algae Farm   Reduction of 76% in the carbon intensity of fuels (compared to fossil fuels)   Reduction of 95% in the carbon intensity of electricity with no additional costs (the algae farm pays for Clean Coal operation)   Elimination of 95% of toxic emissions from power plants + = Slide # 23Ramon SanchezHarvard University
  24. 24. Photovoltaic Electricity   Costs have decreased by 70% in the past decade New Technologies: Solar laminate panels PV is an international commodity http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YYJe12X6T50 http://www.youtube.com/watch? v=VdQK5wq4T_E&feature=fvwp&NR=1 Slide # 24Ramon SanchezHarvard University
  25. 25. Concentrated Solar Power Tech   Emerging http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AIv-gbZQC4k&feature=fvsr Slide # 25Ramon SanchezHarvard University
  26. 26. New Waste-To-Energy Tech   Reduced toxic emissions and solid waste Plasma incinerator: Produces electricity from trash, produces synthetic gas and reduces landfill space Slide # 26Ramon SanchezHarvard University http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sVKm_i0Fvw8
  27. 27. Energy Efficiency Programs   People embrace this program Electricity used in Commercial Buildings in the USA SEDS: State Energy Data Systems Space Cooling Slide # 27Ramon SanchezHarvard University
  28. 28. Wind Power Slide # 28Ramon SanchezHarvard University
  29. 29. Fuel Cell Vehicle It has no mobile parts in its engine, it gets its energy from the reaction of Hydrogen and Oxygen. The issue, how do you get, store and distribute the hydrogen??? Slide # 29Ramon SanchezHarvard School of Public Health
  30. 30. Fuel Cell Technology  The main problem with fuel cells is: How do you get the hydrogen in a sustainable way? Slide # 30 Ramon Sanchez Harvard University
  31. 31. New Technologies to get hydrogenDaniel Nocera, formerly atMIT, now a Professor in theHarvard School ofEngineering and AppliedSciences Slide # 31 Ramon Sanchez Harvard University
  32. 32. Opportunities for domestic fuel cells For more information, click in the following link: http://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2012/03/clean-energy- pioneer-brings-lab-to-harvard/ Slide # 32Ramon SanchezHarvard University
  33. 33. Other applications for fuel cells For more information, click in the following links: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=khK_QTWl5Nc http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KaNGJul2FZ0&feature=endscreen&NR=1 Slide # 33Ramon SanchezHarvard University
  34. 34. Questions?? Slide # 34Ramon Sanchez ©Harvard University
  35. 35. Thank you!!! There is nothing moredifficult to execute normore dubious of success normore dangerous to administerthan to introduce a New Orderof Things Slide # 35Ramon SanchezHarvard University
  36. 36. Potential problems with conventional renewable fuels Oil Producing Crop Scientific Name Kg of oil/ Hectare .Yr Corn Zea mays 145 Cotton Gossypium hirsutum 273 Hemp Cannabis sativa 305 Soy Beans Glycine max 375 Linseed Linum usitatissimum 402 Cartamus Carthamus tinctorius 655 Buffalo plant Cucurbita foetidissima 665 Rice Oriza sativa L. 696 Sunflower Helianthus annuus 800 Cocoa Beans Theobroma cacao 863 Penauts Arachis hypogaea 890 Canola Brassica napus 1000 Olive Olea europaea 1019 Castor Ricinus communis 1188 Pecan Carya illinoensis 1505 Jojoba Simmondsia chinensis 1528 Babassu Palm Orbignya martiana 1541 Jatropha Jatropha curcas 1590 Avocado Persea americana 2217 Coconut Cocos nucifera 2260 Maacauba Palm Acrocomia aculeata 3775 Oil Palm Elaeis guineensis 5000 Spirulina microalgae Spirullina Sp. 18000 Diatom algae Chlorella Diatomea family 43200 Nannochoropsis (off-shore) Nannochloropsis family 116800 Slide # 36Ramon SanchezHarvard University
  37. 37. Potential problems with conventional renewable fuels Slide # 37Ramon SanchezHarvard University
  38. 38. Potential problems with conventional renewable fuels   Carbon Debt due to land use changes USA Brazil Brazil After Subsidies: Deforestation of theBefore Corn Rainforest in Brazil toSubsidies in the plant soybeans to feedUSA: Crop Rotation U.S. Cattle. Carbonof Corn and Soy Debt is subsidized by Slide # 38 the U.S. GovernmentRamon SanchezHarvard University

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