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Copy of Lect4Energy2

  1. 1. ENERGY PRODUCTION & TRADE3/27/2009
  2. 2. Vision of Energy Security for Asia Pacific Region3/27/2009
  3. 3. Asia’s Primary Energy Mix, 2002-03   2002 2002 2003 2003 (mtoe) (%) (mtoe) (%) Oil 1,008.3 36.8 1,049.1 36.1 Natural Gas 249.3 10.7 310.9 10.7 Coal 1,183.7 43.2 1,306.2 44.9 Nuclear 117.7 4.3 104.7 3.6 Hydroelectric 130.8 4.7 137.5 4.7 Total 2,734.8 100 2,908.4 100Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2004
  4. 4. Asia Pacific Region :The Energy Hub of the World• Oil and Coal will continue to hold dominant position in Primary Energy Basket• By 2030, Oil Demand of the non-OECD countries will account for 26% of World total. (Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development)• At 30 mb/d, the Oil Demand is expected to exceed the combined demand for oil of USA and Canada (28 mb/d)• Share of Natural Gas, nuclear power and renewable energy sources is likely to strengthen
  5. 5. Asia Pacific Region :The Energy Hub of the World• Non-OECD Asia to play an increasingly visible role in global energy market• Total Primary Energy Demand projected to rise by 2.6% p.a. over the period 2002-2030 for non-OECD countries• Nearly half of this projected rise in Primary Energy Demand to come from Power Generation as Electricity Consumption will grow at 4.2% p.a.• China and India will drive most of this demand, Flushed with forex reserves, these two nations will shape the future energy markets  Growing middle class  Buoyant economies  Emerging Markets
  6. 6. Energy Scenario - India• World’s Sixth Largest Energy Consumer; accounts for 5% of total world demand• Energy Intensity stood at 2.88 times (2002) that of rich countries• India is a Net Energy Importer; Imports 70 % of its oil demand• Primary Energy Demand projected to rise by 2.3 % p.a. between 2002 and 2030• Energy Consumption levels to increase considering high growth in GDP (7-8 % annually) and growing population
  7. 7. Energy Scenario - India• Coal is the dominant fuel, meeting half of nation’s commercial primary energy demand• Power sector accounts for 73% of India’s total coal consumption; With over 100,000 MW capacity addition planned till 2012 , this sector is expected to drive energy demand further• Conventional fuels like Coal and Oil will displace Non-conventional fuels like Biomass and Waste.• Use of Natural Gas to increase rapidly, with its share in primary energy to increase from 4% in 2002 to 9% in 2030
  8. 8. Energy Scenario - India• Crude Oil o Domestic production around 33 MMTPA (including condensate) o 50% production from Western Offshore o Total crude processed in 2003-04: 119 MMT o 91 MMT imported in 2003-04 o 67% of imports from Middle East• Natural Gas o 98.5 MMSCMD* production, 16 MMSCMD internal consumption and 82.5 MMSCMD available for sale to customers *million standard cubic meters per day
  9. 9. Imports & Exports Value of Imports/ExportsCrude imports US$ bl MMT Imports &1998-99 3.31 Exports2000-01 14.62002-03 16.92003-04 (P) 18.5Product Imports Exports1998-99 2.7 0 .062000-01 1.8 1.72002-03 1.9 2.42003-04 (P) 2.1 13.7
  10. 10. Energy Security in Asia Pacific• Most of the nations in this region source their energy requirements particularly from the Middle East• Recent oil shocks have reflected the vulnerability of region to global price hikes• As per International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates, a sustained $ 10/bbl oil-price increase will result in a loss of 1% of India’s GDP and 2.6% increase in inflation in the following year of the price increase• Access to adequate, reliable and affordable energy is fundamental to achieving the region’s economic, social and environmental objectives
  11. 11. Roadmap for EnergyCooperation Disruptions through regional joint• Preparation for Energy Supply stockpiling, contingency plans and sharing of data and experiences• Facilitation of Energy Investments• Efficient Utilization of Energy through Demand Side Management• Development of Alternative Energy Sources such as Coal Bed Methane, Coal gasification, Bio-fuels, Gas Hydrates
  12. 12. Roadmap for EnergyCooperation• Enhancement of Technological Innovation, viz. combined cycle gas turbines, mini-hydro, advanced nuclear, clean coal technologies• Cross-border energy exchanges through trans-national oil & gas pipelines and transnational grids for transmission of power.
  13. 13. Thank You