Draft Seymour Kompr


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Draft Seymour Kompr

  1. 1. DRAFT What would be the ideal solution? <ul><li>Frances Seymour, Director General of CIFOR </li></ul><ul><li>Rainforest Foundation, Oslo, June 18 th , 2009 </li></ul>Forests in the new climate agreement
  2. 2. Who we are <ul><li>CIFOR is an independent, international institute that conducts research to inform policies and practices that affect forests in developing countries </li></ul><ul><li>Enhancing the role of forests in mitigation of climate change is one of six priority research domains </li></ul><ul><li>The views expressed in this presentation are those of the presenter, and do not represent positions of CIFOR </li></ul>
  3. 3. Outline <ul><li>Essential </li></ul><ul><li>Effectiveness </li></ul><ul><li>Efficiency </li></ul><ul><li>Equity </li></ul><ul><li>Expectations </li></ul>
  4. 4. <ul><li>GHG emissions by sector 2004 </li></ul><ul><li>Source: adapted from Olivier et al, 2005 </li></ul>Deforestation is a significant source of CO 2 emissions Sources of global CO2 emissions, 1970-2004 Source: adapted from Olivier et al, 2005 Essential
  5. 5. 2  C target: can’t be reached without forests: no longer a question of either/or Emissions reduction pathways to 2 degree C Source: EDF, Getting REDD right, 2008 Essential
  6. 6. <ul><li>Risks of exceeding 2 degrees too great </li></ul><ul><li>Impacts of warming on forests could remove mitigation option </li></ul><ul><li>Important co-benefit of forests’ role in adaptation </li></ul>Risk of action needs to be balanced against risk of no action Essential
  7. 7. Criteria for an ideal solution <ul><li>Effectiveness – potential for significant emissions reductions soon </li></ul><ul><li>Efficiency – avoids wasting time and money </li></ul><ul><li>Equity – protects the poor and vulnerable, and if possible makes them better off </li></ul>
  8. 8. Must be combined with dramatic cuts from industrialized countries <ul><li>But some fungibility to provide early incentives </li></ul>GHG emissions by country, including LULUC Source: WRI 2000 Effectiveness
  9. 9. Scope: Needs to be broad enough for political feasibility Effectiveness Top forest-based emitters
  10. 10. <ul><li>targeted action for critical ecosystems to reduce emissions. </li></ul>But narrow enough to enable action on priority areas <ul><li>Ex: Peatland degradation causes 11% of global greenhouse gas emissions, mostly from Southeast Asia </li></ul>Source: Wetlands International and Delft Hydraulics Effectiveness
  11. 11. <ul><li>Implies phased approach </li></ul>Effectiveness Avoided emissions Feasibility (cost + accuracy) high high low low RED REDD+ REDD All terrestrial carbon
  12. 12. Volume of finance must be sufficient to overcome opportunity costs… Extensive cattle Slash & burn ag Intensive cattle Intensive perennials Precious timbers Biomas s + - Soy Source: Wunder, 2008
  13. 13. <ul><li>Implies need to complement public funds with market-based sources </li></ul>Effectiveness Expected evolution of funding needs Source: The Little REDD book, 2008
  14. 14. Agreement should minimize scope for political manipulation: e.g. reference levels <ul><li>crediting baselines must be set to minimize the danger of “hot air” </li></ul>Efficiency Source: Angelsen, 2008
  15. 15. <ul><li>Prospect of markets can help </li></ul><ul><li>“ Phase two” investment vehicles (such as FIP) should require program effectiveness assessment </li></ul><ul><li>Ex-post crediting adjustments are attractive </li></ul>Performance-based incentives Efficiency
  16. 16. Efficiency and co-benefits <ul><li>Considerations of efficiency should include generation of co-benefits. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ex: cocoa agroforestry in Ghana allows livelihood generation, intact forest ecosystem functions and increased carbon storage due to species assemblage. </li></ul></ul>Efficiency
  17. 17. Finance mechanisms <ul><li>Need for complementary mechanisms to generate sufficient alternative finance to service those needs and places where markets won’t go and in appropriate sequence </li></ul>Equity Equity
  18. 18. Challenge remains matching funding sources to country needs, situations and forest types Equity Public funds Private funds <ul><li>Quickly mobilized </li></ul><ul><li>Require investor confidence, low risk – appropriate for high capacity, good governance countries </li></ul><ul><li>Likely for forest mosaic landscapes with strong tenure </li></ul><ul><li>Ex: Iwokrama Reserve in Guyana. Funded by Canopy Capital to measure, value and pay yearly for ecosystem services. </li></ul><ul><li>Necessary to enable REDD investments and create policy environment </li></ul><ul><li>Significant need from both international and domestic sources for capacity building costs </li></ul><ul><li>Best for forest frontiers and beyond, with weak governance and unclear tenure. </li></ul><ul><li>Ex: ODA – World Bank FCPF </li></ul>
  19. 19. <ul><li>Need common international standards – especially procedural approaches </li></ul>Safeguards Equity
  20. 20. Safeguards needed <ul><li>MRV not just for carbon assessment, but also for use of funds </li></ul>Equity
  21. 21. <ul><ul><li>Skepticism engendered by distance between capital city discussions of “ideal solutions” and realities on the ground </li></ul></ul>Expectations Appropriate expectations
  22. 22. Implies pluralistic, evolutionary approach <ul><li>No one-size fits all in foreseeable future </li></ul><ul><li>Phased approach, with careful attention to pace and sequencing </li></ul>Expectations
  23. 23. <ul><li>www.cifor.cgiar.org </li></ul>