Murray slides

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Murray slides

  1. 1. why is this time different?
  2. 2. why this is great news
  3. 3. billions of chained 2005 dollars 0 2000 4000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 600019471950195519601965197019751980198519901995 American GDP, 1947-2012200020052010
  4. 4. spending on food at home, cars, clothing, household furnishings andhousing and utilities, as a share of disposable functional income, 1950-2012 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
  5. 5. Old Media, Digitized, Make New FormsComputers are changing art in unexpected ways. Martin Gayford On July 6, 1507, Michelangelo wrote from Bologna to his brother, Buonarroto. He was engaged in casting a colossal bronze sculpture, of Pope Julius II, and because he was not an expert in bronze casting, he had sent to Florence for someone who was: Bernardino dAntonio del Ponte di Milano, Master of Ordnance to the Republic of Florence. Michelangelo had great faith in him, he told his brother: "I could have believed that Maestro Bernardino could cast without fire." Though the initial attempt had not gone well, he hoped that with "a great deal of anxiety, exertion, and expense" they would eventually succeed—as indeed they did, although later the statue was melted down by the popes enemies and transformed, ironically, into a cannon. Fast-forward a little over half a millennium, and the contemporary Swiss artist Urs Fischer was also facing a technical challenge. He wanted to make a perfect facsimile of Giambolognas intertwined three-figure marble sculpture The Rape of the Sabine Women (1582) in candle wax (plus wax sculptures of an office chair and an artist friend of his named Rudolf Stingel). Just like Michelangelo, he sought out technical assistance—in his case Kunstgiesserei, an art foundry at St. Gallen in Switzerland. The original 16th-century sculpture, in the Loggia dei Lanzi in Florence, was digitized by a state-of-the-art optical scanner, and the resulting information was used to create aUrs Fischer, Untitled, 2011. model, then a mold, and, eventually, a sculpture in wax, precisely mimicking the stoneWax, pigments, wicks, steel. On view at the 2011 of the original—plus wicks.Venice Biennale. (See a gallery of additional artworks.)
  6. 6. “ Technology is a gift of God. After the gift of life it is perhaps the greatest of God’s gifts. It is the mother of civilizations, of arts and “ of sciences. - Freeman Dyson
  7. 7. what could possibly go wrong? economic challenges
  8. 8. returns to capital and to labor in the US 0.12 113.0 corporate profits as % of GDP 0.11 111.0 0.10 109.0 0.09 107.0 (index 2005 = 100) 0.08 105.0 0.07 103.0 % 0.06 101.0 0.05 99.0 0.04 97.0 0.03 95.0 wages as % of GDP 0.02 93.0 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
  9. 9. THE BIG STORYHome Latest NewsAP IMPACT: RECESSION, TECH KILL MIDDLE-CLASS JOBSBy BERNARD CONDON and PAUL WISEMAN - Jan. 23 4:37 PM ESTHome > American Express Co > AP IMPACT: Recession, tech kill middle-class jobs NEW YORK (AP) — Five years after the start of the Great Recession, the toll is terrifyingly clear: Millions of middle-class jobs have been lost in developed countries the world over. And the situation is even worse than it appears. Most of the jobs will never return, and millions more are likely to vanish as well, say experts who study the labor market. Whats more, these jobs arent just being lost to China and other developing countries, and they arent just factory work. Increasingly, jobs are disappearing in the service sector, home to two-thirds of all workers. Theyre being obliterated by technology.
  10. 10. what could possibly go wrong? societal challenges
  11. 11. a tale of two workers = Ted college educated; manager, doctor, lawyer , engineer, scientist, professor, cont ent producer. = Bill no college; blue-collar, service, or low-level white-collar worker.
  12. 12. families in which the head of household or spouse worked 40 or more hours in the preceding week 90% 80% people like Ted 70% people like Bill 60% 50% 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
  13. 13. men not making a living35%30%25% people like Bill20%15% people like Ted10%5% v0% 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
  14. 14. proportion of all whites ages 30-49 who self-report being in very happy marriages70%60% people like Ted50%40% people like Bill30%20% 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
  15. 15. percentage of children living with both biological parents when the mother was age 40 95% 85% 75% people like Ted 65% 55% people like Bill 45% 35% 25% 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
  16. 16. voting turnout in presidential elections, 1968 - 2008100%90%80% people like Ted70% people like Bill60%50%40% 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
  17. 17. white prisoners 1000prisoners per 100,000 population 800 people like Bill 600 400 people like Ted 200 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
  18. 18. “ Class, not race is the dominant… and becoming more dominant…“ dimension of difficulty here. - Robert Putnam
  19. 19. “ Work saves a man from three great evils: “ boredom, vice and need. - Voltaire
  20. 20. what can we do?
  21. 21. “ America does half as well (on social mobility) as Nordic countries, & about the same as Britain and Italy, Europe’s “ least-mobile places.
  22. 22. these are tough challenges but we will meet them
  23. 23. Economics FocusMarathon machineUnskilled workers are struggling to keep up with technological change
  24. 24. It’s a Man vs. Machine RecoveryCompanies have been buying technology instead of hiring, and Okun’s Law is brokenBloombergBy David J. Lynch
  25. 25. Robots are taking mid-level jobs, changing the economyHigh-tech workers should fare well as tech transforms the workplaceBy Sharon GaudinOctober 31, 2011 02:57 PM ETComputerworld - CAMBRIDGE, Mass. -- Computers and robots will replace humans inenough jobs that they will dramatically change the economy, said industry watchers andMIT economists at a robotics symposium Monday. And, they said, the transition hasalready started."What were finally seeing is that our digital helpers aren’t just catching up to us, but, insome cases, are passing us," said Andrew McAfee, an MIT economist and co-author ofthe book Race Against the Machine. "In some head-to-head contests, machines haveraced past us."
  26. 26. When Machines Do The Work What will be our jobs? Never mind outsourcing, it’s machines moving in on thewith workplace.Tom Ashbrook Ever since machines came on the scene, humans worried they would steal their jobs. They did. But humans adapted. Found other jobs. My guests today, Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee of MIT, say machines are now moving into the workplace at such a pace that humans can’t keep up. Not even in many white collar settings, where subtle new machine intelligence is now challenging pedigreed human professionals. Plumbers, you’re going to be ok. But what about the rest of us? This hour On Point: when machines do the work, how will humans make a living? -Tom Ashbrook
  27. 27. Look Out! There are Robots All Around + Add to Playlist Listen to the Story Download Talk of the Nation [ 30 min 18 sec ] April 4, 2012 text size A A AExplore David Marketplace correspondent David Brancaccio wanted to see ifBrancaccio’s it was possible to drive across the country without interactingMarketplace series with a human being – just machines. He discovered how“Robots Ate My Job.” technological advances – from factory robots to self-checkout machines – are changing the future of U.S. jobs.
  28. 28. EditorialWhen droids take your jobA duo from MIT argue that rapid computer advances may be vaporizing careers fasterthan workers can train for new ones.November 28,2011The stubbornly high unemployment rate has left policymakers wondering whether theres somethingmore at work than just an unusually steep recession. Have the country, its businesses and its marketschanged in some fundamental way, leaving millions of Americans with skills that are no longerneeded? Economists are sharply divided on that point, but two from the Massachusetts Institute ofTechnology make a compelling argument that the technology revolution is vaporizing careers fasterthan many Americans can embark on new ones.

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