My talk at Brighton Strategy and Planning Meetup, July 30th 2015. I talked about how difficult it is to plan for the future, and the Brilliant Noise methodology for creating trends radar maps to prioritise attention and resources around trends. To have a look at the Gartner Hype Cycle for marketing http://www.gartner.com/webinar/3075217 NB: When I say the Gartner hype cycle is a broken model, I mean that in the sense that all models are broken. It's still very useful indeed - the point I made in my talk was that it isn't always linear - things appear at the top of the hype cycle and then fall away or go straight to the slope of enlightenment.

1. www.brilliantnoise.com @brilliantnoise|
Antony Mayfield - @amayfield
The next next next

2. Reading trends is a
digital leadership
skill.

3. Marc Andreesen:
You can only predict
what’s going to
happen six months
out….
Image: Wikimedia. 3

4. "We always overestimate the
change that will occur in the
next two years and
underestimate the change that
will occur in the next ten.”
Bill Gates, The Road
Ahead
Image (cc) Wikimedia 4

5. 5
Have you ever sent a fax from the
beach?

7. “The constraint on the
economy’s growth then becomes
its ability to go through all these
potential recombinations to !nd
the truly valuable ones.”
The Secon Machine Age, Brynjolfsson & McAfee 7

8. Picture caption, citation 8
Combinatorial innovation

9. “Virtually every !rm in every industry
is being shaken up by the digital
revolution. No chief executive can
ignore the onslaught of mobile
computing, big data, arti!cial
intelligence and the like. These new
technologies o"er the promise of
huge e#ciency gains, but also the
threat of being walloped by some
upstart from Silicon Valley.”
9

10. Models and maps
of the future

11. 11
I can’t know everything.
I can know what will affect me.
I can prioritise resource and
attention around opportunities
and threats.

12. Picture caption, citation 12
Gartner’s
hype
cycle

13. Source: Gartner, 2015 13

14. Source: Gartner, 2015 14

15. Source: Gartner, 2015 15

16. 16
Of course, it is a model that is broken…

17. Picture caption, citation 17

18. Building a
trends radar

19. 19
Filter and prioritise.
Make sense from the noise.
Planning tool for teams.

20. 20

21. 21

22. 22

23. 23
Bookmark app + IFTTT.com
Evernote folder to collect.
Keynote / Power Point / GDocs
How to
make
your own

24. 24
Diigo.com

25. Picture caption, citation 25

26. 26

27. www.brilliantnoise.com @brilliantnoise|
Thank you