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The next next next: working with the future


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My talk at Brighton Strategy and Planning Meetup, July 30th 2015. I talked about how difficult it is to plan for the future, and the Brilliant Noise methodology for creating trends radar maps to prioritise attention and resources around trends. To have a look at the Gartner Hype Cycle for marketing

NB: When I say the Gartner hype cycle is a broken model, I mean that in the sense that all models are broken. It's still very useful indeed - the point I made in my talk was that it isn't always linear - things appear at the top of the hype cycle and then fall away or go straight to the slope of enlightenment.

Published in: Business

The next next next: working with the future

  1. 1. @brilliantnoise| Antony Mayfield - @amayfield The next next next
  2. 2. Reading trends is a digital leadership skill.
  3. 3. Marc Andreesen: You can only predict what’s going to happen six months out…. Image: Wikimedia. 3
  4. 4. "We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.” Bill Gates, The Road Ahead Image (cc) Wikimedia 4
  5. 5. 5 Have you ever sent a fax from the beach?
  6. 6. “The constraint on the economy’s growth then becomes its ability to go through all these potential recombinations to !nd the truly valuable ones.” The Secon Machine Age, Brynjolfsson & McAfee 7
  7. 7. Picture caption, citation 8 Combinatorial innovation
  8. 8. “Virtually every !rm in every industry is being shaken up by the digital revolution. No chief executive can ignore the onslaught of mobile computing, big data, arti!cial intelligence and the like. These new technologies o"er the promise of huge e#ciency gains, but also the threat of being walloped by some upstart from Silicon Valley.” 9
  9. 9. Models and maps of the future
  10. 10. 11 I can’t know everything. I can know what will affect me. I can prioritise resource and attention around opportunities and threats.
  11. 11. Picture caption, citation 12 Gartner’s hype cycle
  12. 12. Source: Gartner, 2015 13
  13. 13. Source: Gartner, 2015 14
  14. 14. Source: Gartner, 2015 15
  15. 15. 16 Of course, it is a model that is broken…
  16. 16. Picture caption, citation 17
  17. 17. Building a trends radar
  18. 18. 19 Filter and prioritise. Make sense from the noise. Planning tool for teams.
  19. 19. 20
  20. 20. 21
  21. 21. 22
  22. 22. 23 Bookmark app + Evernote folder to collect. Keynote / Power Point / GDocs How to make your own
  23. 23. 24
  24. 24. Picture caption, citation 25
  25. 25. 26
  26. 26. @brilliantnoise| Thank you