Portugal
The First Carbon Neutral Economy (by 2030)


André Marquet, April 2009 (andre.marquet@gmail.com)
There are several proponents of carbonless economies
In Hot, Flat and Crowded, T.
Friedman proposes a bold
inter-generational challenge
to have the US to lead an
agenda to fig...
• But critics say:
  – Global warming is irreversible so don’t waste
    your energies… doom day is coming.
  – Even if gl...
First, the facts
  • Portugal ranks in 68th place in top CO2
    emissions per capita: each portuguese is
    responsible ...
CO2/ CH4 generation in 2010 in Portugal


         Electricity Production

         Industrial Processes
         Forest F...
Forest Fires
• Forests represent the greatest natural
  carbon sink in Portugal.
• At the same time, Forest fires are
  re...
Car fleet

  All major car manufacturers are
 launching electric autos in 2009.
Toyota
Honda
Mitsubishi
Renault Nissan
…even US car makers!
Europe’s West Coast




                      remember?
First Reality
THE PORTUGUESE ECONOMY IS
ESSENCIALLY NON INDUSTRIALIZED.
Nuclear Power
• France’s moto: “No coal, no oil, no choice”
  – Allows for 80% of electricity generation;
  – Represents 4...
Nuclear Power
in Europe
•   The only countries
    that do not have
    nuclear power are:
     – Ireland (considering
   ...
Thermal Efficiency
• Only the re-building of decrepit buildings is
  estimated to represent market of 17 bln Euros in
  Po...
“Green New Deal”
• Fleet of cars would have to converted into electric/
  hybrid cars. This can be achieved in 10-15 years...
Benefits of CO2 Zero Economy
• Accelarate the entering of the Portugal into the “New
  Economy” in which prices of product...
Benefits (2)
• A small sized country like Portugal would
  benefict enourmously from a bold
  commitment to green policies...
Action Plan
• Promote an economic study by independent
  experts to predict the impact of the de-carbonizing
  the Portugu...
Why this can work
• Simply, because it has worked in the past. There
  are several success stories of industry and
  econo...
Until the late 1970’s whale
 hunting was one the most
profitable businesses in the
     Azores (Portugal).
It has been reconverted to another, much more
interesting (and sustainable):

                               Whale watching
Portugal, Green Economy by 2030
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Portugal, Green Economy by 2030

  1. 1. Portugal The First Carbon Neutral Economy (by 2030) André Marquet, April 2009 (andre.marquet@gmail.com)
  2. 2. There are several proponents of carbonless economies
  3. 3. In Hot, Flat and Crowded, T. Friedman proposes a bold inter-generational challenge to have the US to lead an agenda to fight global warming.
  4. 4. • But critics say: – Global warming is irreversible so don’t waste your energies… doom day is coming. – Even if global warming can be tackled, Portugal is too small to make any difference. – Portugal can not do it alone…
  5. 5. First, the facts • Portugal ranks in 68th place in top CO2 emissions per capita: each portuguese is responsible for 5,6 tons of CO2/ year. • Portugal is actually well placed in the ranking, it is the best performer of Eurozone. The worst is Luxembourg with 24,9 tons of CO2/ year.. Qatar is in the 1st place of the ranking with 69 ton/ year! The USA is 10th place of the ranking with 20 ton/ year!
  6. 6. CO2/ CH4 generation in 2010 in Portugal Electricity Production Industrial Processes Forest Fires; Accidental Processes Transports fleet (cars, planes, boats) Cattle
  7. 7. Forest Fires • Forests represent the greatest natural carbon sink in Portugal. • At the same time, Forest fires are responsible for the release of 10 to 30% of the annual CO2 releases in Portugal.
  8. 8. Car fleet All major car manufacturers are launching electric autos in 2009.
  9. 9. Toyota
  10. 10. Honda
  11. 11. Mitsubishi
  12. 12. Renault Nissan
  13. 13. …even US car makers!
  14. 14. Europe’s West Coast remember?
  15. 15. First Reality THE PORTUGUESE ECONOMY IS ESSENCIALLY NON INDUSTRIALIZED.
  16. 16. Nuclear Power • France’s moto: “No coal, no oil, no choice” – Allows for 80% of electricity generation; – Represents 40% of total power consumption.
  17. 17. Nuclear Power in Europe • The only countries that do not have nuclear power are: – Ireland (considering construction); – Portugal (no plans); – Greece (no plans); – Austria (no plans); – Estonia (joint production with Lithuania); – Latvia (joint production with Lithuania); – Poland (construction due to begin in 2010); – Italy (construction due to begin in 2010);
  18. 18. Thermal Efficiency • Only the re-building of decrepit buildings is estimated to represent market of 17 bln Euros in Portugal. • Putting these reconstructed buildings in the market, along with national construction contention strategies would allow for thousands of people, especially young couples to return to cities, living near to their working palces, thus reducing commuting costs and overall carbon footprint. • TIP: Upgrade existing buildings to energetic efficiency conditions represents a global market estimated in several billion Euros, employing thousands of people and effectively rescuing the SME construction sector.
  19. 19. “Green New Deal” • Fleet of cars would have to converted into electric/ hybrid cars. This can be achieved in 10-15 years - We need a “Portuguese Better Place.” • Gas and electricty prices should start to incorporate CO2 emission costs at market price - gas taxes and others to support electric conversion. • Consider A-L-L electricity generation power means that do not release CO2 into the atmosphere. Nuclear along others, should be on top of the table.
  20. 20. Benefits of CO2 Zero Economy • Accelarate the entering of the Portugal into the “New Economy” in which prices of products and services are indexed to their carbon intensity. • By converting the national fleet into electricity, Portugal would create the necessary incentives for Portuguese and International companies start investing into the development of mechanical engineering companies. • By promoting offshore wind power, and substituting current coal and natural gas • Re-open of Portuguese uranium mines in modern and safe conditions would create thousands of jobs.
  21. 21. Benefits (2) • A small sized country like Portugal would benefict enourmously from a bold commitment to green policies. • International reputation and recognition (benneficting from the fact that the country is already known as a leader in wind power and innovative alternative power schemes.) • Direct GDP impact can be estimated at double digit % by 2030.
  22. 22. Action Plan • Promote an economic study by independent experts to predict the impact of the de-carbonizing the Portuguese economy by 2030. • Begin by the state owned buildings (schools, military facilities, government, etc) and convert them to eco- friendly buildings. • Give construction vouchers to the population so they can reconvert existing private buildings into eco- friendly ones. • Develop smart grids. • Develop smart highways (auto-piloted cars!) • Reconvert to electric based car-fleet. • Consider nuclear, offshore eolic and micro-generation mix to substitute first coal, then gas electricity generation.
  23. 23. Why this can work • Simply, because it has worked in the past. There are several success stories of industry and economic reconversions. • During War World II, both capitalistic as soviet style economies were able to construct gigantic military industries in very short periods and re- convert them back to civilian purposes after the war, with enourmous added value, ex: • Fridges factory becomes> Warplane factory that becomes> Civilian transport airplane industry. • It didn’t happened in 20 years. It happened in 10!
  24. 24. Until the late 1970’s whale hunting was one the most profitable businesses in the Azores (Portugal).
  25. 25. It has been reconverted to another, much more interesting (and sustainable): Whale watching

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