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An Amárach Research Presentation
                                       October 2009


The New Normal
                    ...
1. Reality Check
                        how was it for you?

                     2. Psychological Recovery
             ...
1. Reality Check
                        how was it for you?




The New Normal   3
News from the Front




                       Online survey of SII Members

                       September 2009

      ...
Are We There Yet?



                 Current Perceptions of the Irish Market
                            52%


          ...
Feeling the Pain


                    Sales Outlook: 2009 and 2010
                                                      ...
Sales Drivers



          What Sales Approach is Currently Successful?
     30%            29%

                         ...
Planning Hopefully



            When Will The Worst Be Over In Irish Market?
                                           ...
Recessions and Recoveries have one
     thing in common: they are usually well
     under way before they show up in the
 ...
2. Psychological Recovery
                         hearts, heads, purses




The New Normal   10
2. Reality Check:
                         hearts & wallets




The New Normal   11
Confident Outlook




The New Normal       12
The New Normal   Source: CSO, ESRI, Amárach calculations   13
What Goes Around




                    We are ... ?




                                   -




The New Normal         ...
The Economic Recovery Index




                                                                April 0%    September 0%

...
Marginal Propensities




The New Normal           16
Debt and negative equity will curtail any
     urge to splurge for many consumers for
     the foreseeable future ...

   ...
3. The New Normal
                         no going back




The New Normal   18
On the web nobody can hear you switch




The New Normal                           19
Everyone Has Their Price




The New Normal              20
Customer Disloyalty




The New Normal         21
Customer Disloyalty II




The New Normal            22
Generational Shift




          After: The Role of Demographics in Precipitating Crises in Financial Institutions, Diane ...
The Boom of Youth




The New Normal       24
The 2016 Generation




The New Normal         25
70%


   60%


   50%


   40%
                   Yesterday, did you experience?
   30%


   20%
                   Enjoym...
2010 looks like being ‘less
                      worse’ than 2009 (and will
                      get and feel a lot bett...
Amárach Research
11 Kingswood Business Centre
Citywest Business Campus
Dublin 24




                                     ...
Appendix: About Amárach
     We are Ireland’s largest independent market
     research agency, in business since 1989.
   ...
Image Credit




   http://www.breathecast.com/Christian.Music.Artist-Phil.Joel/AlbumView-870_2597.htm




The New Normal ...
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The New Normal - Amárach Presentation to Sales Institute Breakfast Briefing October 2009

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A presentation on the market experiences and expectations of Irish sales managers and directors and a look ahead to new consumer realities in Ireland.

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The New Normal - Amárach Presentation to Sales Institute Breakfast Briefing October 2009

  1. 1. An Amárach Research Presentation October 2009 The New Normal © Amárach Research1
  2. 2. 1. Reality Check how was it for you? 2. Psychological Recovery hearts, heads, purses 3. The New Normal no going back The New Normal 2
  3. 3. 1. Reality Check how was it for you? The New Normal 3
  4. 4. News from the Front Online survey of SII Members September 2009 Current experiences in Ireland & future expectations 173 response – all sizes and sectors The New Normal 4
  5. 5. Are We There Yet? Current Perceptions of the Irish Market 52% 27% 19% 2% Bad and getting Bad but stabilising Bad but showing Over the worst worse signs of and improving improvement strongly The New Normal 5
  6. 6. Feeling the Pain Sales Outlook: 2009 and 2010 80% 44% 34% 22% 9% 11% Higher than previous Same as previous year Lower than previous year year 2009 Sales 2010 Sales The New Normal 6
  7. 7. Sales Drivers What Sales Approach is Currently Successful? 30% 29% 20% 10% 8% 3% Lower Better New Volume Advertising Other (e.g.: Prices Value, Same Products Discounts & Promotion trade shows Prices etc) The New Normal 7
  8. 8. Planning Hopefully When Will The Worst Be Over In Irish Market? 34% 32% 7% 7% 3% Already over By the end of By the middle By the end of Don't know the worst this year of 2010 2010 The New Normal 8
  9. 9. Recessions and Recoveries have one thing in common: they are usually well under way before they show up in the official statistics ... Recessions are macroeconomic phenomena in the main ... whereas Recoveries are microeconomic phenomena. The New Normal 9
  10. 10. 2. Psychological Recovery hearts, heads, purses The New Normal 10
  11. 11. 2. Reality Check: hearts & wallets The New Normal 11
  12. 12. Confident Outlook The New Normal 12
  13. 13. The New Normal Source: CSO, ESRI, Amárach calculations 13
  14. 14. What Goes Around We are ... ? - The New Normal 14
  15. 15. The Economic Recovery Index April 0% September 0% April 1% September 1% April 77% September 50% 50% April 8% September 21% 21% April 14% 14% September 28% 28% The New Normal 15
  16. 16. Marginal Propensities The New Normal 16
  17. 17. Debt and negative equity will curtail any urge to splurge for many consumers for the foreseeable future ... ... but as the fear of unemployment abates, consumers will loosen their purse strings, wallets and savings accounts: beginning in H1 2010 and becoming ‘official’ in H2 2010. The New Normal 17
  18. 18. 3. The New Normal no going back The New Normal 18
  19. 19. On the web nobody can hear you switch The New Normal 19
  20. 20. Everyone Has Their Price The New Normal 20
  21. 21. Customer Disloyalty The New Normal 21
  22. 22. Customer Disloyalty II The New Normal 22
  23. 23. Generational Shift After: The Role of Demographics in Precipitating Crises in Financial Institutions, Diane Macunovich, September 2009 The New Normal 23
  24. 24. The Boom of Youth The New Normal 24
  25. 25. The 2016 Generation The New Normal 25
  26. 26. 70% 60% 50% 40% Yesterday, did you experience? 30% 20% Enjoyment 10% Happiness 0% April May June July August September The New Normal 26
  27. 27. 2010 looks like being ‘less worse’ than 2009 (and will get and feel a lot better as the year progresses). Make Customer Loyalty your number one priority to avoid ‘revenge switching’ when confidence improves. Watch out for demography: we’re all getting older and so are your customers. Be Happy – it’s both popular and contagious! The New Normal 27
  28. 28. Amárach Research 11 Kingswood Business Centre Citywest Business Campus Dublin 24 T. (01) 410 5200 E: gerard.oneill@amarach.com gerard.oneill@ The New Normal B: www.turbulenceahead.com www.turbulenceahead.com 28
  29. 29. Appendix: About Amárach We are Ireland’s largest independent market research agency, in business since 1989. We focus on delivering two key benefits to our 3rd March 2009 Welcome to the latest edition of consumerforesight from Amárach Research. We clients: have set out to make consumerforesight a more interactive and informative research and planning tool for subscribers. Feel free to invite others to register for our free eLetter on our home page. 1. Consumer Foresight – using market research to say ‘what next’. Two months gone, ten to go. Like Keith Richards, we’re all at the stage of “it’s good to be here – it’s good to be anywhere”. But it is tough out there. Against a background of industrial unrest (even the Gardaí are protesting!), we shouldn’t be surprised if 2. Business Insight consumers are on something of a ‘go slow’ themselves. – using research to make business decisions. But it won’t last. It’s too early for green shoots, but as time goes by people will want to buy: especially those still in secure jobs who are faced with extraordinary bargains in shops, hotels and car showrooms. Irish consumers don’t really do hair shirts. When we have money we can afford to spend then we’re usually We provide the full array of market research inclined to spend it: assuming we’re getting good value and not being ripped off. services including: Don’t forget: for every person in Ireland with a mortgage, loan or ‘maxed out’ credit card there is another person without any debt (at all). W hat are you doing to tap the ‘worried well’ market? - Quantitative: face-to-face, telephone, web - Qualitative: focus groups, in-depths, ethnographic - Field Only: for international & domestic agencies Before you embark on a new brand or Business is about passion: so for that matter is business just remember Seth Godin’s the economy – check out some wise words on the three things you need read more role of passion in success read more With the world all ‘a-twitter’ don’t forget How not to do food marketing: quite possibly the the future is on the TV read more worst food in the world read more Register for our free fortnightly eletter It’s all down to psychology – an Amárach presentation on how Irish consumers will lead us to recovery read more Optimistic people are healthy and happy – even when the economy is collapsing around them: what are you doing for optimism? read more consumerforesight at: www.amarach.com Read our regular blog: Amárach Research will present a paper on ‘Life Online 2009’ at Comreg’s ICT Research conference on 12th www.amarachresearch.blogspot.com The New Normal 29
  30. 30. Image Credit http://www.breathecast.com/Christian.Music.Artist-Phil.Joel/AlbumView-870_2597.htm The New Normal 30

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