The Economic Recovery Index October Results 2009


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A monthly survey of Irish consumer sentiment in relation to the state of the economy and the timing of recovery.

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The Economic Recovery Index October Results 2009

  1. 1. The Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing October Index Results © Amárach Research 2009
  2. 2. 2 Timing Recovery Business Cycle Peaks & Troughs All recessions end in recovery – so will this one The biggest forecasting challenge is timing: when do we know the recession is over and recovery has started? Amárach Research has developed the Economic Recovery Index to help us track the economic cycle more closely This report summarises the ERI results for April to October 2009 The July fieldwork was conducted on 18th-23rd October inclusive Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index
  3. 3. 3 A Matter of Measurement Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults online and ask them to tell us which statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index
  4. 4. 4 A Matter of Measurement October has seen the strongest ERI score since April: as many people think the worst is over as think it’s still getting worse April 0% October 0% April 1% October 1% April 77% October 47% 47% April 8% October 23% 23% April 14% 14% October 30% 30% Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index
  5. 5. Economic Recovery Index Using the answers to the survey we have created the Economic Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = worsening recession; 100 = back to peak) The ERI has improved strongly through August and October, recovering all of the ground lost in June-July 2009 ERI Score 0 April 8.3 100 April October May 16.3 June 17.8 July 15.0 August 17.0 September 18.4 October 19.6 Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index
  6. 6. 6 Other Sentiment Indicators from ERI Survey Percent of adults who agree with each statement: September and October 2009 Ireland will be through the I am optimistic in spite of The recession is worst of the recession the current economic affecting other people in 12 months time situation more than it is affecting me 48% 62% 60% 46% 55% 56% September October September October September October I feel financially I am more relaxed about comfortable enough to spending money than I make it through the was a few months ago recession 18% 48% 46% 16% September October September October Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index
  7. 7. 7 Mood of the Nation Did you experience any of these feeling a lot of the day yesterday? September and October 2009 61% 61% 52% 54% 47% 40% 39% 34% 22% 18% 16% 19% 19% 13% Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry Sadness Physical Anger Pain September October Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index
  8. 8. 8 Insights & Implications October has seen a continuing improvement in the general public’s perceptions of the current status of the recession-recovery cycle. This bodes well for consumer markets in particular, and the wider economy in general, if it translates into increased spending. But that is a big ‘IF’. Other indicators in our ERI survey point to little real change in consumer sentiment in relation to willingness to spend or confidence about their financial ability to get through the recession. So the improvement in the ERI in October may well herald a better macro-economic outlook in the months ahead, but it is too early to tell if consumers are about to loosen their purses and wallets in the run up to Christmas and into 2010. Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index
  9. 9. 9 About Amárach Amárach Research is a full service market research agency The questions for the Economic Recovery Index are run on our monthly online omnibus survey of 1,000 adults Keep up with Amárach’s thinking by subscribing to our free fortnightly ezine: Consumer Foresight More information at: Check out our blog here: Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index
  10. 10. 10 Amárach Contact Details Gerard O’Neill - Chairman Bernadette Coyne – Managing Director Amárach Research 11 Kingswood Business Centre Citywest Business Campus Dublin 24 T. (01) 410 5200 E. W. B. Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index