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Economic Recovery Index December 2017

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A year end look at the economic mood of Irish consumers, with a focus on the top 10 and bottom 10 brands in terms of customer sentiment.

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Economic Recovery Index December 2017

  1. 1. 1 Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing December 2017
  2. 2. 22 We have been reporting our monthly Economic Recovery Index since April 2009. We set out eight years ago to assess the psychological impact of the recession and to chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’. This report summarises our Economic Recovery Index results from April 2009 to December 2017. The most recent fieldwork was conducted during 10th to 16th December 2017 inclusive. See how bad it was eight years ago: https://www.slideshare.net/amarach/economic- recovery-index-december-results-2009 The Economic Recovery Index
  3. 3. 33 The ERI – moving sideways… Source: Amárach Research, December 2017 Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = at the peak). The Recovery Index and the Irish people’s views on the current and future state of the economy have improved considerably since its lowest point in December 2010. Recent forecasts for the Irish economy – and consumer spending in particular – suggest that sentiment and spending will both improve in 2018: though the relative stagnation in 2017 in terms of sentiment should caution against too optimistic an outlook. 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Economic Recovery Index April 2009 – December 2017
  4. 4. 44 Economic Recovery Index Scores Top 10 Bottom 10 Spar 61.3 Virgin Mobile 39.3 Pure pharmacy 56.3 Meteor 39.1 McCabes pharmacy 55.7 48 Go Conquer 38.9 Zurich 54.5 EBS 38.4 Energia 54.2 Sam McCauley 37.5 Other 50.7 Pre pay power 32.9 KBC 50.1 Pinergy 32.8 AON Insure 50.0 AA Ireland 32.7 No Nonsense 50.0 Local Independent 26.5 One Direct 50.0 Marks & Spencers 13.5 Ireland’s most bullish and least bullish customers We have measured a high correlation between our ERI, consumer confidence and consumer spending. It is vital that brands understand how wider economic perceptions affect their customers’ perceptions and spending intentions. The table shows the top 10 brands in terms of their customers’ ERI scores, and the bottom 10 in December 2017.
  5. 5. 77 The ERI – Summary Table Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’? % choosing each statement: % The economic situation in Ireland is getting worse The economic situation is bad but has stabilized The economic situation is bad but showing a few signs of improvement The economic situation is getting better and showing clear signs of improvement The economic situation is good and almost fully recovered Economic Recovery Index Dec-09 49 31 18 2 0 18.3 Dec-10 65 20 14 1 0 12.0 Dec-11 59 24 15 2 0 15.1 Dec-12 49 28 20 3 0 19.5 Dec-13 24 36 31 8 1 31.2 Dec-14 16 31 38 13 1 37.9 Dec-15 13 30 34 19 4 43.3 Dec-16 15 29 32 21 3 42.2 Nov-17 17 27 29 24 3 41.9 Dec-17 16 26 31 24 3 43.4 The Recovery Index is lower in comparison to the same point in the previous three years, but with a slight pick up from last month – with the prevailing feeling amongst the nation is again one of stabilisation with a few signs of improvement.
  6. 6. 8 Consumer Impact
  7. 7. 99 Over these past eight years we have tracked the highs and lows (and very lows) in terms of the mood of the nation and the impact on consumer spending, borrowing and saving intentions. Irish consumers are feeling must less relaxed about spending money this month, perhaps due to Christmas looming and all its associated costs and optimism falling back slightly too. Consumer Sentiment % Agree Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago I am saving a lot more than before because of the recession My main financial priority is to pay off my debts as quickly as possible I would be happy to borrow money from a bank if I need to I always buy the lowest price products or services I always buy Irish when I can Dec-09 43 45 51 56 17 26 57 29 Dec-10 23 34 41 45 11 23 58 21 Dec-11 22 33 39 43 14 27 56 22 Dec-12 26 32 39 43 15 22 54 22 Dec-13 37 40 49 43 22 26 55 26 54 53 Dec-14 40 42 52 43 26 23 55 23 47 50 Dec-15 43 43 51 45 30 25 52 26 54 48 Dec-16 35 46 54 46 36 34 50 35 53 53 Nov-17 37 46 52 43 34 32 59 37 52 58 Dec-17 39 49 55 42 35 33 58 39 54 59
  8. 8. 12 Mood of the Nation
  9. 9. 1313 The Mood of the Nation Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to December 2017 When we started measuring and reporting the Economic Recovery Index we wanted it to be more than just another ‘confidence index’. We therefore set out to measure the full spectrum of emotions experienced by Irish consumers – positive as well as negative – in order to provide a unique insight into the real ‘mood’ of the nation. Emotions drive buying, saving and investment decisions… and ultimately drive the wider economy: therefore understanding emotions gives us insight into the drivers of short run dynamics in terms of consumer markets and even growth prospects. Amárach’s work combining emotional insights with advertising effectiveness and policy adoption studies has proven the power of emotional insights to predict future outcomes.
  10. 10. 1414 The Mood of the Nation: % Experienced a Lot Yesterday – I Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to December 2017 (Boredom and loneliness added in Jan and Dec 14) - 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry Anxiety
  11. 11. 1515 The Mood of the Nation: % Experienced a Lot Yesterday – II Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to December 2017 (Boredom and loneliness added in Jan and Dec 14) - 5 10 15 20 25 30 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Sadness Pain Anger Boredom Loneliness
  12. 12. 16 Amárach Outlook
  13. 13. 1717 With Christmas fast approaching, the scene looks set for a buoyant end to 2017. The Economic Recovery Index will continue to shed light on consumer trends in Ireland and guide readers to the near term outlook going into 2018. A Happy Christmas and Peaceful New Year to all our readers and clients. Outlook – Christmas on the Horizon…
  14. 14. 1818 We survey 1,000 adults every month to create the Economic Recovery Index. We also track dozens of data series relating to customer experience, spending levels, and switching intentions also as part of the same survey You can view the full list (as well as a free dashboard with our latest data and forecasts) here: Try out the free version for a one week trial period. http://getPlanR.com/ Get PlanR and get Planning
  15. 15. 1919 e. info@amarach.com t. 01 410 5200 w. www.amarach.com b. www.amarach.com/blog Tw. twitter.com/AmarachResearch s. slideshare.net/amarach/

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