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Amárach Economic Recovery Index November 2015

Our monthly look at the needs, attitudes and aspirations of Irish consumers, with a special focus on Irish supermarkets.

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Amárach Economic Recovery Index November 2015

  1. 1. 1Economic Recovery Index Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing November 2015 Focus on: Supermarkets © Amárach Research
  2. 2. 2Economic Recovery Index Christmas Cheer Our Economic Recovery Index bottomed out at its lowest point exactly five years ago in November 2010, when the Troika came calling to Ireland. Five years on and the contrast could not be more stark for all of the sentiment and shopping measures that we have been tracking since April 2009. This month we’ve focused on the attitudes and intentions of customers of Ireland’s Main Supermarkets. In the run up to Christmas 2015 it certainly looks like gloom has given way to – if not boom – then at least to a quantitatively and qualitatively better outlook than in the dark days of Winter 2010.
  3. 3. 3Economic Recovery Index The Emotional Recovery We have been reporting our monthly Economic Recovery Index since April 2009. We set out over six years ago to assess the psychological impact of the recession and to chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’. This report summarises our Economic Recovery Index results from April 2009 to November 2015. The most recent fieldwork was conducted during 19th to 26th November 2015 inclusive. See how bad it was five years ago: http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/aib-amarach-recovery-indicator-november-2010
  4. 4. Economic Recovery Index
  5. 5. 5Economic Recovery Index Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak). The ERI continued its surge in November, reaching another record high level: The Economic Recovery Index Source: Amárach Research, November 2015 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Apr'09 July Sept Nov Jan'10 Mar May July Sept Nov Jan'11 Mar May July Sept Nov Jan'12 Mar May July Sept Nov Jan'13 Mar May July Sept Nov Jan'14 Mar May July Sept Nov Jan'15 Mar May July Sept Nov the ERI has stayed above the 40 level for five months in a row…
  6. 6. 6Economic Recovery Index ERI Summary Table Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’? % choosing each statement: % The economic situation in Ireland is getting worse The economic situation is bad but has stabilized The economic situation is bad but showing a few signs of improvement The economic situation is getting better and showing clear signs of improvement The economic situation is good and almost fully recovered Economic Recovery Index Nov-09 51 27 21 1 0 17.8 Nov-10 80 12 6 1 1 7.3 Nov-11 57 24 17 2 0 16.3 Nov-12 47 30 20 3 0 19.6 Nov-13 26 36 32 5 0 29.6 Nov-14 17 29 37 16 2 38.9 Oct-15 11 29 35 22 3 43.9 Nov-15 11 30 35 21 3 43.7 a majority of consumers see clear signs of improvement
  7. 7. 7Economic Recovery Index Economic Outlook Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’? % choosing each statement by Main Supermarket: Source: Amárach Research, November 2015 November 2015 TOTAL Tesco Dunnes Supervalu Aldi Lidl 1000 298 160 103 233 169 The economic situation in Ireland is getting worse 11% 8% 10% 13% 14% 8% The economic situation is bad but has stabilized 30% 30% 29% 27% 30% 29% The economic situation is bad but showing a few signs of improvement 35% 31% 32% 33% 33% 42% The economic situation is getting better and showing clear signs of improvement 21% 26% 23% 18% 17% 16% The economic situation is good and almost fully recovered from the recession 3% 3% 4% 5% 1% 1% ERI Score 43.7 46.5 45.1 43.0 39.5 42.6
  8. 8. Consumer Impact
  9. 9. 9Economic Recovery Index Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I % agree strongly/slightly with selected statements: % Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me Nov-09 41 45 51 52 Nov-10 18 32 33 45 Nov-11 23 34 42 45 Nov-12 27 34 44 43 Nov-13 36 42 49 44 Nov-14 40 38 52 39 Oct-15 42 46 54 45 Nov-15 43 47 56 45 positive sentiment is rising, though improvement is gradual…
  10. 10. 10Economic Recovery Index Spending Trending % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by Main Supermarket): “I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago” Source: Amárach Research, November 2015 November 2015 TOTAL Tesco Dunnes Supervalu Aldi Lidl 1000 298 160 103 233 169 Strongly Agree 10% 10% 10% 6% 11% 10% Slightly Agree 21% 25% 22% 22% 16% 23% Neither/Nor 23% 22% 24% 31% 23% 20% Slightly Disagree 22% 20% 20% 21% 26% 25% Strongly Disagree 20% 20% 19% 17% 21% 19%
  11. 11. 11Economic Recovery Index Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II % agree strongly/slightly with selected statements: % I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago I am saving a lot more than before because of the recession My main financial priority is to pay off my debts as quickly as possible I would be happy to borrow money from a bank if I need to Nov-09 16 27 62 28 Nov-10 11 24 50 20 Nov-11 15 26 55 23 Nov-12 16 25 53 22 Nov-13 22 24 54 26 Nov-14 26 24 54 28 Oct-15 33 27 51 28 Nov-15 31 27 54 27 …spending sentiment has remained at a positive level in recent months…
  12. 12. 12Economic Recovery Index Driving Spending Source: Amárach Research, November 2015 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 As Economic Outlook Improves, Spending Improves As Well Economic Recovery Index (LHS) I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago: % agree (RHS)
  13. 13. 13Economic Recovery Index Price Driven % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by Main Supermarket): “I always buy the lowest price products or services” Source: Amárach Research, November 2015 November 2015 TOTAL Tesco Dunnes Supervalu Aldi Lidl 1000 298 160 103 233 169 Strongly Agree 20% 23% 14% 8% 25% 21% Slightly Agree 31% 33% 26% 34% 31% 27% Neither/Nor 23% 21% 27% 25% 20% 27% Slightly Disagree 16% 13% 22% 22% 13% 16% Strongly Disagree 6% 5% 7% 10% 4% 4%
  14. 14. 14Economic Recovery Index Buying Irish % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by Main Supermarket): “I always buy Irish when I can” Source: Amárach Research, November 2015 November 2015 TOTAL Tesco Dunnes Supervalu Aldi Lidl 1000 298 160 103 233 169 Strongly Agree 22% 22% 27% 29% 17% 20% Slightly Agree 31% 30% 34% 38% 29% 30% Neither/Nor 24% 26% 20% 19% 28% 22% Slightly Disagree 11% 10% 10% 5% 13% 12% Strongly Disagree 5% 7% 3% 3% 6% 7%
  15. 15. Mood of the Nation
  16. 16. 16Economic Recovery Index The Mood of the Nation – I Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to November 2015 Source: Amárach Research, November 2015 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Apr'09 May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'10 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'11 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'13 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'14 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'15 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
  17. 17. 17Economic Recovery Index The Mood of the Nation – II Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to November 2015 Source: Amárach Research, November 2015 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Apr'09 May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'10 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'11 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'13 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'14 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'15 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
  18. 18. 18Economic Recovery Index The Mood of the Nation – III Source: Amárach Research, November 2015 TOTAL Tesco Dunnes Supervalu Aldi Lidl TOTAL 1000 298 160 103 233 169 Happiness 51% 49% 53% 51% 52% 52% Enjoyment 52% 50% 51% 48% 52% 58% Stress 39% 40% 37% 36% 45% 36% Worry 35% 33% 32% 36% 41% 34% Anxiety 27% 27% 24% 26% 35% 22% Boredom 23% 23% 21% 17% 28% 22% Physical Pain 24% 22% 19% 29% 29% 23% Sadness 21% 21% 20% 24% 26% 16% Loneliness 15% 17% 12% 15% 16% 15% Anger 15% 14% 12% 13% 19% 12% Fear 9% 9% 9% 8% 12% 7% Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % Yes by Main Supermarket
  19. 19. Amárach Outlook
  20. 20. 20Economic Recovery Index Momentum With just one month of 2015 remaining, our Economic Recovery Index continues to sustain the momentum we saw at the start of the summer. We’ll keep tracking the recovery’s progress over the rest of the year – and keep you posted about Ireland’s consumer needs. We hope you find this edition of the Economic Recovery Index helpful and please do get in contact if you want to discuss how it can be applied to your brand planning requirements in 2016 and beyond. For more on the ERI see: http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm
  21. 21. Trends Report Market research from just €295 a month? Check out our new PlanR service. Simply register, select a package that suits your needs and start creating your own research dashboard from over 100 different trend series, statistics and forecasts. Go get PlanR here: http://getplanr.com/
  22. 22. Trends Report e. info@amarach.com t. 01 410 5200 w. www.amarach.com b. www.amarach.com/blog tw. twitter.com/AmarachResearch s. slideshare.net/amarach/

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