Amárach Economic Recovery Index December 2013

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Our latest report is out on the spending, saving and borrowing intentions of Irish consumers. For the third month in a row, our Economic Recovery Index has reached a record level.

More here:

http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

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Amárach Economic Recovery Index December 2013

  1. 1. Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing December 2013 (including analysis by main bank; supermarket; mobile network) © Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index 1
  2. 2. #irlexit Ireland‟s exit from the bailout has boosted consumer confidence about our economic performance and prospects: for the third month in a row our Economic Recovery Index has reached a record high level – up to 31.2. The improvements in consumer intentions for spending and borrowing noted in November have been sustained into December. As 2013 and the bailout come to an end, our tracking research (and focus groups) confirm a growing anticipation of recovery and a better alignment between people‟s views on the economy and their own personal financial plans. Of course, sentiment is just that – an emotional reaction to changing circumstances and information: 2014 will show us whether the hoped for recovery can finally become reality. Economic Recovery Index 2
  3. 3. The Emotional Recovery We have been reporting our monthly Economic Recovery Index since April 2009. We set out nearly five years ago to assess the psychological impact of the recession and to chart our „emotional progress‟ towards recovery alongside our „economic progress‟. This report summarises our Economic Recovery Index results from April 2009 to December 2013. The most recent fieldwork was conducted during 5th-10thDecember 2013 inclusive. The full data series is on our website – if you want us to conduct additional analyses (by brands etc) then feel free to get in touch. Economic Recovery Index 3
  4. 4. The Economic Recovery Index Using the answers to the question on „stages of recovery‟ we have created the Economic Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak). Our Index continues to improve: reaching 31.2 in December 2013, the third record breaking performance in row: 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Apr '09 Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'10 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'11 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '12 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'13 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 0 Source: Amárach Research, December 2013 Economic Recovery Index 4
  5. 5. A Matter of Measurement Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us which one statement „best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now‟ (listed below) The percentage thinking „things are getting worse‟ is less than a third the level three years ago: Nov ’13: 0% Nov ’13: 5% Nov ’13: 26% Nov ’13: 32% Dec ’13: 24% Nov ’13: 36% Economic Recovery Index Dec ’13: 1% Dec ’13: 8% Dec ’13: 31% Dec ’13: 36% 5
  6. 6. ERI Summary Tables I Which one statement „best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now‟? % choosing each statement: % Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Nov-13 Dec-13 The economic The economic The economic The economic The economic situation is situation is bad situation is Economic situation in situation is bad getting better but showing a good and Recovery Ireland is but has and showing few signs of almost fully Index getting worse stabilized clear signs of improvement recovered improvement 49 31 18 2 0 18.3 65 20 14 1 0 12.0 59 24 15 2 0 15.1 49 28 20 3 0 19.5 26 36 32 5 0 29.6 24 36 31 8 1 31.2 Economic Recovery Index 6
  7. 7. ERI Summary Tables II % agree strongly/slightly with selected statements: % Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Nov-13 Dec-13 Economic Recovery Index 43 23 22 26 36 37 I feel I am financially I am optimistic comfortable in spite of the enough to current make it economic through the situation recession 45 34 33 32 42 40 51 41 39 39 49 49 Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me 56 45 43 43 44 43 7
  8. 8. ERI Summary Tables III % agree strongly/slightly with selected statements: % Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Nov-13 Dec-13 I am more I am saving a My main I would be relaxed about lot more than financial priority happy to spending before is to pay off my borrow money money than I because of the debts as quickly from a bank if I was a few recession as possible need to months ago 17 26 57 29 11 23 58 21 14 27 56 22 15 22 54 22 22 24 54 26 22 26 55 26 Economic Recovery Index 8
  9. 9. Brighter Outlook I % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin): “Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in twelve months‟ time” December 2013 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 Weighted Sample 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523 Strongly Agree 8% 8% 9% 10% 9% 8% 6% 8% 7% 11% 6% Slightly Agree 29% 27% 31% 33% 30% 32% 23% 27% 30% 32% 26% Neither/Nor 13% 14% 13% 14% 14% 16% 8% 14% 14% 12% 14% Slightly Disagree 22% 22% 21% 21% 20% 20% 30% 20% 26% 23% 21% Strongly Disagree 23% 26% 20% 16% 19% 18% 31% 29% 18% 18% 27% Economic Recovery Index Source: Amárach Research, December 2013 9
  10. 10. Brighter Outlook II % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by bank/supermarket/mobile network): “Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in twelve months‟ time” December 2013 TOTAL AIB BOI Weighted Sample PTSB Tesco Dunnes Supervalu Aldi O2 Voda fone Meteor 1000 333 296 155 342 183 80 222 213 354 181 Strongly Agree 8% 6% 10% 9% 9% 8% 11% 7% 7% 9% 7% Slightly Agree 29% 31% 34% 22% 30% 33% 25% 28% 30% 26% 32% Neither/Nor 13% 15% 12% 11% 16% 14% 9% 11% 14% 16% 11% Slightly Disagree 22% 24% 20% 26% 24% 23% 18% 20% 24% 21% 19% Strongly Disagree 23% 21% 20% 26% 16% 19% 33% 28% 20% 24% 26% Economic Recovery Index Source: Amárach Research, December 2013 10
  11. 11. Buy Irish I % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin): “I always buy Irish when I can” December 2013 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523 Strongly Agree 23% 23% 23% 18% 21% 21% 23% 30% 23% 23% 24% Slightly Agree 30% 28% 31% 29% 30% 29% 29% 32% 28% 33% 27% Neither/Nor 24% 24% 24% 26% 24% 27% 27% 17% 28% 26% 22% Slightly Disagree 11% 11% 11% 14% 11% 12% 13% 9% 12% 9% 13% Strongly Disagree 8% 8% 7% 9% 9% 7% 5% 8% 7% 7% 9% Economic Recovery Index Source: Amárach Research, December 2013 11
  12. 12. Buy Irish II % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by bank/supermarket/mobile network): “I always buy Irish when I can” Supervalu Aldi O2 Voda fone Meteor 183 80 222 213 354 181 27% 27% 25% 23% 25% 23% 23% 26% 28% 39% 32% 33% 31% 29% 28% 26% 26% 24% 15% 22% 25% 21% 21% 24% 8% 9% 14% 12% 8% 8% 10% 10% 12% 12% 6% 8% 7% 6% 8% 8% 6% 7% 10% 7% December 2013 TOTAL AIB BOI Weighted Sample 1000 333 296 155 342 Strongly Agree 23% 25% 23% 22% Slightly Agree 28% 34% 34% Neither/Nor 24% 22% Slightly Disagree 12% Strongly Disagree 7% Economic Recovery Index PTSB Tesco Dunnes Source: Amárach Research, December 2013 12
  13. 13. The Mood of the Nation 1 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 toDecember 2013 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry 10% Apr '09 May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'10 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'11 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'13 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 0% Economic Recovery Index Source: Amárach Research, December 2013 13
  14. 14. The Mood of the Nation 2 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 toDecember 2013 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger 5% Apr '09 May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'10 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'11 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'13 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 0% Source: Amárach Research, December 2013 Economic Recovery Index 14
  15. 15. Emotions Summary Table Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: Enjoyment Happiness Dec-09 49 52 46 41 33 20 23 18 Dec-10 47 46 48 45 32 19 20 20 Dec-11 52 48 46 45 34 20 21 19 Dec-12 49 47 45 42 31 18 20 16 Nov-13 53 49 45 40 34 22 25 18 Dec-13 51 51 46 43 35 20 23 17 % Economic Recovery Index Stress Worry Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger 15
  16. 16. Changing Moods I Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: December 2013 December 2013 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523 Enjoyment 51% 55% 48% 51% 48% 47% 52% 58% 52% 57% 46% Happiness 51% 49% 53% 54% 51% 56% 45% 51% 52% 54% 48% Stress 46% 38% 54% 55% 55% 57% 48% 25% 49% 48% 45% Worry 43% 39% 47% 46% 44% 47% 47% 35% 42% 40% 46% Anxiety 35% 31% 38% 45% 32% 38% 36% 27% 35% 36% 33% Boredom 25% 27% 23% 48% 27% 22% 14% 17% 24% 21% 29% Physical Pain 23% 20% 27% 20% 17% 25% 24% 30% 25% 23% 24% Sadness 20% 18% 22% 27% 24% 21% 16% 16% 18% 22% 19% Anger 17% 17% 17% 26% 20% 15% 14% 12% 19% 16% 18% Fear 13% 11% 14% 21% 13% 13% 12% 7% 14% 13% 13% Economic Recovery Index Source: Amárach Research, December 2013 16
  17. 17. Changing Moods II Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: December 2013 (by main bank/supermarket/mobile network) Supervalu Aldi O2 Voda fone Meteor 183 80 222 213 354 181 52% 54% 54% 43% 54% 51% 53% 46% 48% 53% 54% 56% 52% 50% 56% 44% 45% 47% 43% 40% 52% 43% 45% 53% 44% 39% 44% 41% 40% 38% 52% 39% 46% 37% 35% 36% 37% 31% 36% 31% 28% 41% 30% 38% 28% Boredom 25% 25% 24% 26% 25% 28% 23% 27% 21% 23% 23% Physical Pain 23% 22% 23% 25% 23% 19% 33% 25% 24% 19% 26% Sadness 20% 19% 20% 23% 23% 18% 15% 23% 17% 21% 17% Anger 17% 16% 18% 17% 17% 20% 17% 16% 16% 17% 15% Fear 13% 13% 12% 16% 14% 12% 6% 14% 9% 13% 12% December 2013 TOTAL AIB BOI Weighted Sample 1000 333 296 155 342 Enjoyment 51% 49% 53% 52% Happiness 51% 51% 58% Stress 46% 49% Worry 43% Anxiety Economic Recovery Index PTSB Tesco Dunnes Source: Amárach Research, December 2013 17
  18. 18. Drivers & Drinking we discover the right answers to our clients‟ important questions Image: http://yourawakenedself.com/tag/jacob-nordby/
  19. 19. TrendsReport Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want your hack your way to growth in 2014: e. info@amarach.com w. www.amarach.com b. www.amarach.com/blog t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch For more on the ERI see: http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

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