Amárach Economic Recovery Index August 2014

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Our monthly look at the mood and intentions of Irish consumers.

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Amárach Economic Recovery Index August 2014

  1. 1. 1 Economic Recovery Index Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing August 2014 © Amárach Research
  2. 2. 2 Economic Recovery Index Contagious Optimism Moods are contagious – for good and for bad – but right now it is for good as the rising level of economic optimism and personal confidence creates its own momentum. Our Economic Recovery Index is now at its highest level since we began measuring it over five years ago (though remember it was very low to begin with!) Indeed, for the first time, the majority of Irish people say the economy is clearly improving; only minority feel it’s bad or just stable. All-in-all, as we enter the last third of 2014, the economy might just enjoy an ‘Indian summer’ of its own…
  3. 3. 3 Economic Recovery Index The Emotional Recovery We have been reporting our monthly Economic Recovery Index since April 2009. We set out over five years ago to assess the psychological impact of the recession and to chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’. This report summarises our Economic Recovery Index results from April 2009 to August 2014. The most recent fieldwork was conducted during 16th-22nd August 2014 inclusive. The full data series is on our website – details at the end of this report.
  4. 4. Economic Recovery Index
  5. 5. 5 Economic Recovery Index Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak). Our Index reached a new record level in August 2014: The Economic Recovery Index Source: Amárach Research, August 2014 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Apr '09 Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'10 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'11 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '12 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'13 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'14 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug the ERI is now approaching the 40 barrier…
  6. 6. 6 Economic Recovery Index A Matter of Measurement July ’14: 18% Aug ’14: 16% July ’14: 36% Aug ’14: 33% July ’14: 35% Aug ’14: 38% July ’14: 10% Aug ’14: 13% July ’14: 0% Aug ’14: 0% Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below) For the first time in over 5 years, the majority of Irish people say the economy is improving:
  7. 7. 7 Economic Recovery Index ERI Summary Table Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’? % choosing each statement: % The economic situation in Ireland is getting worse The economic situation is bad but has stabilized The economic situation is bad but showing a few signs of improvement The economic situation is getting better and showing clear signs of improvement The economic situation is good and almost fully recovered Economic Recovery Index Aug-09 53 26 20 1 0 17.0 Aug-10 36 36 24 4 0 24.0 Aug-11 52 29 18 1 0 17.3 Aug-12 42 31 25 2 0 21.7 Aug-13 38 33 26 3 0 23.7 Jul-14 18 36 35 10 0 34.7 Aug-14 16 33 38 13 0 37.2 The ERI in August 2014 was more than double that in August 2009
  8. 8. 8 Economic Recovery Index Uneven Recovery Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’? (by sex, age, class, Dublin) Source: Amárach Research, August 2014 August 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523 The economic situation in Ireland is getting worse 15% 17% 13% 13% 14% 16% 17% 16% 16% 12% 19% The economic situation is bad but has stabilized 32% 31% 33% 29% 34% 33% 34% 30% 31% 32% 32% The economic situation is bad but showing a few signs of improvement 36% 35% 38% 35% 33% 38% 36% 39% 36% 38% 35% The economic situation is getting better and showing clear signs of improvement 13% 13% 12% 15% 12% 10% 11% 14% 13% 14% 11% The economic situation is good and almost fully recovered from the recession * * * 0 1% 1% 0 0 1% 1% * ERI Score 37.2 37.0 37.5 37.4 36.4 37.1 35.5 39.0 37.6 39.9 34.8
  9. 9. Consumer Impact
  10. 10. 10 Economic Recovery Index Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I % agree strongly/slightly with selected statements: % Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me Aug-09 43 48 60 61 Aug-10 39 46 50 54 Aug-11 24 34 48 46 Aug-12 27 39 47 46 Aug-13 32 38 44 43 Jul-14 37 41 48 44 Aug-14 41 47 53 47 a majority of people are optimistic for the first in months
  11. 11. 11 Economic Recovery Index Feeling Comfortable? % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin): “I feel financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession” Source: Amárach Research, August 2014 August 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523 Strongly Agree 14% 15% 14% 18% 17% 8% 14% 15% 14% 18% 11% Slightly Agree 32% 31% 33% 32% 31% 34% 26% 36% 33% 37% 27% Neither/Nor 16% 20% 13% 15% 18% 14% 18% 16% 17% 14% 18% Slightly Disagree 20% 19% 20% 20% 19% 25% 19% 18% 20% 17% 22% Strongly Disagree 15% 14% 16% 9% 14% 17% 22% 15% 14% 11% 19%
  12. 12. 12 Economic Recovery Index Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II % agree strongly/slightly with selected statements: % I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago I am saving a lot more than before because of the recession My main financial priority is to pay off my debts as quickly as possible I would be happy to borrow money from a bank if I need to Aug-09 16 Aug-10 19 26 62 31 Aug-11 14 25 57 23 Aug-12 17 28 54 25 Aug-13 18 25 55 25 Jul-14 23 24 54 23 Aug-14 28 27 56 27 spending propensity reached its highest level yet in August 2014
  13. 13. 13 Economic Recovery Index Purses & Wallets % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin): “I am more relaxed spending money than I was a few months ago” Source: Amárach Research, August 2014 August 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523 Strongly Agree 7% 7% 7% 7% 10% 3% 8% 6% 7% 8% 6% Slightly Agree 21% 22% 19% 24% 22% 22% 17% 19% 20% 26% 16% Neither/Nor 20% 22% 17% 22% 19% 22% 17% 19% 20% 19% 20% Slightly Disagree 26% 24% 28% 24% 26% 25% 24% 30% 27% 26% 27% Strongly Disagree 25% 23% 27% 18% 21% 28% 32% 26% 23% 19% 30%
  14. 14. 14 Economic Recovery Index Consumer Sentiment Summary Table III % agree strongly/slightly with selected statements: % I always buy the lowest price products or services I am always on the lookout for opportunities to switch to cheaper suppliers I have more choice than before when it comes to products and services I always buy Irish when I can Apr-13 57 71 52 52 May-13 58 69 54 54 Jun-13 55 70 55 51 Jul-13 56 70 52 53 Aug-13 57 70 53 53 Sep-13 59 72 53 54 Oct-13 58 69 52 51 Nov-13 56 69 55 51 Dec-13 54 68 54 53 Jan-14 59 74 56 54 Feb-14 56 70 57 52 Mar-14 57 68 56 48 Apr-14 56 69 54 50 May-14 60 72 55 51 Jun-14 55 70 58 52 Jul-14 58 72 58 48 Aug-14 56 71 60 51
  15. 15. Mood of the Nation
  16. 16. 16 Economic Recovery Index The Mood of the Nation 1 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to August 2014 Source: Amárach Research, August 2014 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Apr '09 Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr June Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr June Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr June Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr June Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr June Aug Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
  17. 17. 17 Economic Recovery Index The Mood of the Nation 2 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to August 2014 Source: Amárach Research, August 2014 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Apr '09 May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'10 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'11 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'13 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'14 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
  18. 18. 18 Economic Recovery Index Changing Moods Source: Amárach Research, August 2014 August 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523 Enjoyment 60% 61% 58% 66% 55% 58% 61% 60% 58% 63% 56% Happiness 57% 57% 57% 66% 56% 56% 53% 55% 58% 61% 53% Stress 37% 34% 40% 41% 40% 46% 38% 25% 33% 35% 39% Worry 34% 32% 37% 42% 39% 36% 36% 23% 35% 35% 33% Boredom 27% 25% 29% 48% 32% 27% 19% 14% 28% 24% 30% Anxiety 27% 26% 28% 33% 29% 30% 28% 19% 26% 28% 27% Physical Pain 25% 25% 24% 19% 19% 27% 27% 29% 26% 23% 26% Sadness 19% 17% 21% 30% 22% 18% 21% 10% 20% 18% 20% Anger 17% 16% 17% 23% 23% 17% 16% 8% 16% 16% 18% Fear 9% 7% 11% 10% 12% 12% 9% 3% 11% 8% 10% Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: August 2014
  19. 19. Amárach Outlook
  20. 20. 20 Economic Recovery Index Dive In Moods are catching, so if the current emotional and intentional momentum continues we can expect to see a gradual increase in the share of consumers more prepared to open their purses & wallets. Only then will the recovery become much more manifest for the nation as a whole. We hope this edition of the Economic Recovery Index has given you some food for thought about the opportunities that lie ahead – we’d be happy to share other ideas with you on how to leverage the new momentum. For more on the ERI see: http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm
  21. 21. we ask better questions so you get better answers Image: http://yourawakenedself.com/tag/jacob-nordby/
  22. 22. Amárach Research and Chilli Pepper Marketing have created the inaugural Loyalty Performance Index (LPI) and report, which is the first ever independent report on loyalty programmes in Ireland. This unique research model has been developed to identify loyalty winners and provide useful benchmarking data for any Brands currently running or planning to embark on a loyalty programme. If Brands would like to arrange a confidential briefing on the Loyalty Performance Index, then contact either: Gerard O’Neill (gerard.oneill@amarach.com) or Leanne Papaioannou (leanne@chillipepper.ie)
  23. 23. Trends Report e. info@amarach.com t. 01 410 5200 w. www.amarach.com b. www.amarach.com/blog t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

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