2Timing Recovery • All recessions end in recovery – so will this one • The biggest forecasting challenge is timing: when do we know the recession is over and recovery has started? • Amárach Research has developed the Recovery Indicator to help us track the economic cycle more closely • This report summarises the Recovery Indicator results for April 2009 (when it began) to November 2010 • The fieldwork was conducted on 22nd to 30th November 2010
3 A Matter of Measurement• Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults – split 850 online and 150 face-to-face to ensure coverage of the total population – and ask them to tell us which statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’• Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle
4 A Matter of Measurement• November saw a further fall in confidence about the prospects for recovery, returning to levels last seen in April 2009 when the series began.
5• Using the answers to the survey we have created the Recovery Indicator, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = worsening recession; 100 = back to peak).• Any build in positivity has been eroded with the scoring now going back to April 2009.
8 Financial Sentiment Indicators from the ARI Survey Percent of adults who agree with each statement: October 2009 and November 2010 Impact on: • Spending • Saving • Debt • Borrowing # # # * ‘a new house’ in 2009# Question first asked in October 2009
9 The Mood of the Nation 1Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?April 2009 to November 2010
10 The Mood of the Nation 2Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?April 2009 to November 2010
11Amárach Contact Details Gerard O’Neill - Chairman Amárach Research11 Kingswood Business Centre Citywest Business Campus Dublin 24 T. (01) 410 5200E. firstname.lastname@example.org W. www.amarach.com B. www.amarach.com/blog